AUDJPY (Still Long)We were "cursed" at when we said earlier in the week that AUDJPY was bullish and yet it turned out to trace out a drastic account draining retracement that may have taken out some stops. Not to mention the fact that we did say that prior price movement was setting up for one last push up for what seemed like final wave 5 of an initial impulse which happened as planned at market open on Monday. Nevertheless, we re-state the bullish case again as we await confirmation of the advancement of wave C of the a-b-c retracement underway probably into next week. Target is the 100% expansion (85.750) of 81.484 to 84.537 @ 82.582
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Technicalanalyses
GBPUSD (Long) TradeGBPUSD is proving equity is currently flowing into UK against major currency pair as this pair is tracing out a bullish structure. Current price action is well below key resistance zone of 1.31899/1.32922 and may have been overbought. Our view is that there is strong case for price retracement going into the week.
However significant retracement is expected to be contained at 1.26612/1.26376/1.25788/1.25552 cluster support zone. Further penetration of said confluence support should bring further downside to 1.23551/1.22962 support zone.
Nevertheless, it is our view that retracement should be contained by black upward sloping trend line shown and after which a bullish engulfing candle, morning star, hammer, shooting star or three soldiers candle pattern should be trigger for long entry till key resistance target of 1.31899/1.32922 area.
AUDNZD (Long)Generally speaking it appears equity seems to be flowing into the Aussie crosses against minor pairs as AUDNZD traces out a bullish bias. However current price at 1.08999 is near critical resistance zone of 1.9307/1.9738 and hence further upside movement may experience some disappointment in this pair going into the week. Nevertheless, we expect price to eventually penetrate and close above the 1.9307/1.9738 cluster resistance zone at which point 1.13617/1.3905 cluster resistance zone should be target trade over some weeks.
On the downside, decisive price close below first upward orange sloping trend line will most likely cause price to seek second upward sloping trend line shown as support target.
AUDJPY (Long) TradeFurther to the earlier view that the AUDJPY pair was neutral, we have now adopted a bullish bias for the pair. AUDJPY pair appears to have traced out a bullish structure with current price action having acted like a bounce off 81.696/81.386 critical support zone. Next move appears to be shaping up for what looks like final wave 5 of a possible initial impulse. Target is actually 38.2% (87.265) expansion of the move from 72.399 to 87.330 @ 81.590 first. Daily close above that level should target 61.8% (90.772) expansion level and further close above that level should see 100% (96.447) expansion level.
EURUSD still has a very bearish structurewww.tradingview.com
Technically speaking the EURUSD is severely under pressure to go any higher (see negative deviation bewteen MACD and price shown). And to be quite honest for it to be in any confirmed decisive impulsive move upwards, it needs to have a daily close above the August 2015 high of 1.16947. This is the scale of the bearishness of this pair that we have taken an interest in. On the other hand in terms of fundamentals, the protectionism philosophy that we are seeing taking grip of nations around the world today is really cause for concern in so many ways and we might be seeing a return of the 1-to-1 correlation between Gold and the Euro that was well established about 12 years ago. So I guess we just have to wait and see. As soon as 1.0520 zone is taken out on the daily, we might see a total eradication in value of the euro against the US dollar to pairity. However my analyses shows that EURUSD has not yet finished tracing out the full corrective picture on the daily. I expect a 5-3-5 corrective structure to develop on the daily. We have finished the first 5 and we might be in the second 3 wave a-b-c structure where current forceful down candle might only be a wave b of the 3-wave structure upwards. If the last 5-wave move down occurs and takes us past 1.0520 then the 5-wave move can be seen as a wave 3 of a larger wave 1 impulse down and changes the whole wave count thereby pointing decisively to pairity of the euro against the dollar.