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Technical Analysis

Gold vs Commodities: Monitoring Relative Strength in Hard AssetsIntroduction: The commodity sector spans various areas, including energy, agriculture, livestock, and metals. However, focusing on the most promising areas can lead to more effective investment strategies. One key ratio to monitor is gold AMEX:GLD versus a broader commodities basket (DBC). This ratio is especially relevant for those interested in hard assets, as it highlights where strength lies in the commodity space. Currently, this ratio favors gold as the stronger performer. Analysis: Relative Strength: The GLD-to-DBC ratio offers critical insights into the relative performance of gold versus other commodities. Gold has been outperforming the broader commodity basket, indicating its resilience as a hard asset. Technical Pattern: Earlier this year, the ratio broke out of a rounding bottom pattern, signaling a bullish trend in favor of gold. Even before this breakout, the trend was clear through a series of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the strength of gold relative to other commodities. Gold’s Performance: Gold remains near its all-time highs, while other commodities continue to lag behind. This highlights gold’s resilience in the face of broader market uncertainties. Conclusion: Gold’s resilience compared to other commodities makes it a standout performer in the current market environment. The recent breakout in the GLD-to-DBC ratio and the continued pattern of higher highs and higher lows support the bullish case for gold. Traders focused on hard assets should monitor this ratio closely to gauge potential shifts in strength. What’s your outlook on gold versus other commodities? Share your insights below! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the GLD-to-DBC ratio, the rounding bottom pattern, and the higher highs and higher lows trend) Tags: #Gold #Commodities #HardAssets #GLD #DBC #TechnicalAnalysis
AMEX:GLD
by Richtv_official
EURUSD: to the point of important supportEUR/USD has restored half -hearted on Thursday, restoring four tenths of percent and increasing over 1,0800. Despite the recovery on the weekend, Fiber still dropped sharply compared to the recent high level after a decrease of more than 4% from top to bottom compared to the highest bid at the end of September nearly 1,1200. Technically, the recent decline has followed the principle of DOW theory, showing that after a large decline, the market will often tend to adjust. In this scenario, EURUSD is likely to retreat to Fibonacci levels 0.5 to 0.618, in the range of 1,09307 to 1,09836. This will be an important resistance area, where the price may slow down or have a selling pressure again. What do you think of the recovery momentum at the present time?
Long
by Bentradegold
Bitcoin ATH 80K – A Technical Analysis UpdateIn my initial analysis on October 8, I projected Bitcoin's path toward an all-time high (ATH) of 80K based on a thorough review of Fibonacci retracement levels, trendlines, and market indicators. Now, with Bitcoin moving as anticipated, it's time for an update on the technicals and what we can expect going forward. Key Technical Analysis: Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The 0.618 retracement level (~66,666 USDT) has proven to be a strong support zone. Bitcoin tested and respected this level, reinforcing the bullish momentum. With the price hovering around 66K, the next key level to watch is 71,068 USDT (0.5), followed by 75,471 USDT (0.382), which will confirm the trajectory towards the ATH. Ascending Trendline Support: The upward trendline I marked earlier has continued to act as a solid support. Price movements above this trendline signal continued bullish momentum, showing that buyers are confident at higher levels. Channel Breakout: Bitcoin broke out of its consolidation phase (March to September 2024) in line with the analysis. The breakout from the descending channel is significant, pointing to a sustained bullish trend. This kind of movement typically precedes higher price targets, which aligns with my projection toward 80K. Moving Averages (MA): The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are still in a positive alignment, offering support for the upward movement. As long as Bitcoin stays above these levels, the bullish case remains strong. Volume and Market Sentiment: Volume has remained relatively steady with no significant drops, which indicates there is still buying pressure in the market. This confirms that the breakout is supported by market demand and not just speculative moves. Conclusion and Next Steps: The technicals remain solid, and Bitcoin is following the path laid out in my initial analysis. With 71K and 75K as the next critical levels, the target of 80K remains highly achievable. However, while the long-term trend is bullish, traders should continue to monitor key support and resistance zones to confirm the strength of the move. In summary, the chart speaks for itself. The breakout, moving averages, and Fibonacci retracements are all supporting the case for a new ATH. Stay focused on the broader trend and be prepared for the continuation of this bullish cycle. Stay updated for further developments.
Long
by khaledxab
XRP Price Analysis: Potential 20% Drop Amid Key Support LevelsXRP is currently trading within a box pattern, with a lower high suggesting a higher probability of a downside breakout. If the crucial support level of $0.5213 is lost, there is a 20% potential drop in price, targeting $0.4164. If you are holding XRP, you might consider selling, or alternatively, you could take a short position upon a clear break of the $0.5213 level. Given the importance of this support, a sharp decline is expected if it breaks. Keep an eye on this critical zone for any significant moves.
Short
by saeedalipour93
Nat Gas: Heating Up into the WinterBrief Overview on Natural Gas Natural Gas is a commodity generally traded on the premise of weather forecasts indicating cooler or warmer seasons. This allows traders to speculate on demand for the product as it generally trades higher with cooler temperatures. Today we are looking at the weekly chart. Thesis: Technical Analysis Pointing to a Bounce This analysis is mainly focused on the lasting demand zone that Natural Gas time and time again respects and typically bounces from. The weekly chart points to the likelihood that the R/R is favorable for a long position at these levels in the 2.20's. Not only do we see NG tap back into this heavy demand zone, but we also can see a Cup & Handle on the weekly chart signaling potential greater upside. Demand Zone offers strong R/R as it dips back in to these levels. Cup & Handle can represent even further upside, but will rely on the initial rebound to prompt the possibility of it playing out. There is also a trendline (not pictured) that is supporting the current bounce we are seeing today from the 2.18/2.19 level. It is important to note that the commodity has been seeing higher lows since the Spring. Lastly, a tap of fundamentals play into this idea as well. Though winter demand is always priced in, this year forecasts have repeatedly painted the picture that this winter will be historically mild. Due to these forecasts implying less seasonal demand for Nat Gas, a shift in the shorter-term and more accurate models as we approach the winter season will sharply move the price of Nat Gas and represents that the current price is truly pricing in a very mild winter. This basis supports the idea of great R/R on this LONG trade idea. Disclosure I am currently in a long position in Natural Gas after entering on the Friday (10/18) Close My position includes: AMEX:UNG Credit Spread 13/12P , AMEX:BOIL common shares If this thesis holds up, I would plan to roll my credit spread contracts into further expirys Thanks for reading! Not Financial Advice
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by ZachSap
GBPJPY Is Nearing Strong Resistance ZoneGBPJPY has been in a strong bullish phase, but five-wave bullish cycle within wave (5) up from 2022 swing lows can be completed after recent strong reversal down back below channel support lines. In fact, drop from the high is impulsive on a smaller time frame, so it’s wave A that stabilized near 178 support area as expected. As such, current rise is corrective, ideally B wave that can be still in progress as a bigger correction before a continuation lower for wave C. Ideal resistance is at that channel line, from the outside, around 198 – 200 area. GBPJPY is looking for a higher resistance within wave C of (B) in the 4-hour chart, as it can be now breaking out of subwave »iv« triangle into subwave »v« of C, so keep an eye on next strong 198 – 200 resistance zone, from where bears for a higher degree wave (C) may show up.
Short
by ew-forecast
USDJPY Analysis for 24/10/2024: A Slightly Bearish Bias AheadAs we analyze the USDJPY currency pair on October 24, 2024, current market conditions and fundamental factors suggest a slightly bearish bias. This article delves into the key drivers influencing this outlook, allowing traders to make informed decisions in this dynamic market environment. Current Market Conditions The USDJPY pair has shown a mixed performance recently, with fluctuations influenced by both U.S. economic data and developments in Japan. Traders are closely watching for signals that could dictate the pair’s movement, particularly as we approach critical economic indicators. Key Fundamental Drivers 1. U.S. Economic Data: Recent economic data from the U.S. has been a mixed bag. While there have been positive signs in job growth and consumer spending, inflation remains a concern. The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates continues to be cautious, signaling that any aggressive rate hikes may not be imminent. This dovish sentiment can weigh on the U.S. dollar, creating a bearish outlook for USDJPY. 2. Japanese Economic Performance: Japan's economy is showing signs of resilience, with recent data indicating stronger-than-expected growth. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, but there are discussions about potential adjustments in response to rising inflation. Should the BoJ signal a shift towards tightening, this could support the Japanese yen and contribute to a bearish trend in USDJPY. 3. Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty can lead to safe-haven buying of the yen. Any escalation in conflicts or adverse developments in trade relations may strengthen the yen further, enhancing its appeal against the U.S. dollar. 4. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators: Sentiment in the forex market is essential. Currently, there is cautious optimism among traders regarding the yen due to the previously mentioned economic performance indicators. Additionally, technical analysis reveals that USDJPY is nearing resistance levels, suggesting a potential reversal. If the pair fails to breach these levels, it may retreat, reinforcing a bearish bias. Conclusion Considering the current fundamental factors and market conditions, the outlook for USDJPY remains slightly bearish for today. Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. economic data releases and any announcements from the Bank of Japan that could further impact this currency pair. Keywords: USDJPY analysis, bearish bias, forex market, U.S. economic data, Bank of Japan, Japanese yen, geopolitical tensions, market sentiment, technical analysis.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
XAUUSD Adjusts With Key Support at 2,722XAUUSD is currently in a correction phase after reaching a peak of 2,758.007. At present, the price is likely to test the critical support around 2,722, supported by the EMA 34 and EMA 89, indicating that the uptrend could remain intact if the price holds above this level. If the price does not break this support, it is highly likely to rebound towards the resistance at 2,758.007. The RSI, currently at 57.40, suggests the market is in a neutral zone with no signs of being overbought or oversold. In recent news, gold prices dropped over 1% after reaching the peak on October 23rd due to a stronger USD and rising US bond yields, despite safe-haven demand driven by the upcoming US presidential election and the Middle East situation.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Zola_Hello
XAUUSD: Exiting the uptrend channel !Latest gold price forecast today October 24, 2024: Gold information: World gold prices fell sharply today due to pressure from the increase in the USD and US Treasury bond yields. Specifically, the US Dollar Index increased by 0.3% to nearly a 3-month high, which put pressure on gold prices. US bond yields also increased to a 3-month high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Although gold prices have decreased, experts are still optimistic because the uncertainties related to the US election along with the increasing debt burden in this country are also making investors worried and looking to gold as a safe haven for cash flow. Conclusion: This has caused gold to continuously conquer records and has increased by more than 31% this year. With this momentum, gold is one of the best investment channels in 2024. Ben's personal comment: On most timeframes, gold price is still well supported, creating a good recovery momentum from the support level of 2408 and now 2723 dollars. The recovery is likely to continue in the coming time with targets of 2733 - 2739 respectively, before any further correction in the main trend. Gold setup: Buy entry: 2721 - 2717 SL: 2713 TP: 2733 - 2739 Sell entry: 2733 - 2735 - 2737 - 2739 SL: 2743 TP: 2714 - 2708
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
4
SasanSeifi| Key Levels to Watch in the 4-Hour TimeframeHey there, ✌ In the 4-hour timeframe, as observed on the chart OANDA:XAUUSD , gold's price has seen a minor rise after reaching the $2,600 level and is currently trading around $2,657. In the short-term outlook, one possible scenario is that after encountering the $2,668 supply zone, the price may enter a consolidation phase, with a slight pullback toward the $2,650 and $2,646 levels. If we receive the necessary confirmation signals at this stage, we could potentially see a price rebound and continuation of the upward trend. To maintain this upward momentum, holding the support levels between $2,646 and $2,640 is crucial. In case of further correction, it’s essential to monitor the price’s reaction to these support zones. If the price finds support at these levels, a new upward move towards the mentioned targets could start. However, if these supports fail, there is a possibility of prolonged consolidation or even a further price decline. On the other hand, if sufficient buying pressure emerges and the price manages to stabilize above $2,670 and $2,675, the chances of further growth towards targets like $2,700, $2,710, and $2,720 will increase. This analysis is my personal viewpoint and not financial advice. If you found this helpful, please like and comment – I’d love to hear your thoughts! Happy trading! ✌😊
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SasanSeifi
4
USD/JPY Strengthens Due to High U.S. Bond YieldsThe technical analysis of USD/JPY on October 23 shows a strong upward trend. Currently, the pair is trading around 152.692 after breaking the 150.489 support level, paving the way for a potential rise to 155. The EMA 34 and 89 lines provide solid support, while the MACD indicator suggests strong upward momentum. A short-term correction may occur before further gains. On the news front, USD/JPY is boosted by high U.S. bond yields and expectations that the Fed will maintain stable rates, while the Bank of Japan continues its loose monetary policy.
by Zola_Hello
Gold prices continue to search for new peaks?Conan, hello everyone! Today, the price of gold continues to break records by maintaining a new peak around $2700, and the growth trend seems to show no signs of slowing down this year. Notably, this week, the European Central Bank held a meeting and officially decided to cut interest rates for the third time this year, with a reduction of 0.25 percentage points. At the same time, gold has attracted more attention from investors after the LBMA poll released earlier this week. These developments have made the gold market hotter than ever. It is expected that this price increase will reach $2760. What are your thoughts on this issue? Do you agree with me?
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ConanTradingFX