Dollar Index (DXY): Time to Fill the Gap?!
I guess you saw this gap down that was formed this night on Dollar Index.
Analysing a price action today, it looks like the market is preparing to fill it.
I see a nice bearish trap and inducement followed by a bullish imbalance
on an hourly.
I think that the index will go up to the gap opening level soon.
Goal - 106.11
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Technical Analysis
UPL Ltd. (NSE: UPL) AnalysisOverview: UPL Ltd. is currently trading at ₹545.50, showing signs of consolidation near its short-term moving averages. The price is poised at a critical level with a potential for either a breakout or a breakdown, depending on market dynamics and volume activity.
Technical Insights:
1.Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Support: ₹528 (marked by recent lows and a strong demand zone).
Key Resistance: ₹549.50 (current level) and ₹584.05 (previous swing high and significant supply zone).
2.Volume Profile:
The visible range volume profile indicates a concentration of volume between ₹540-₹550, suggesting this zone as a pivot for future price action.
A breakout above ₹549.50 could attract higher volumes, pushing the stock towards ₹584.
3.Moving Averages:
The stock is near its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, indicating a neutral short-term trend.
A clear break above the 200-day EMA would signal a shift in momentum towards the bulls.
4.RSI (Relative Strength Index):
RSI is hovering around 50, indicating a lack of strong momentum. A breakout above resistance could drive RSI towards overbought territory, confirming bullishness.
Scenarios:
Bullish Case: A breakout above ₹549.50 with high volumes could see the stock targeting ₹584.05 in the short term. Sustained momentum may lead to further upside towards ₹600.
Bearish Case: Failure to sustain above ₹549.50 might result in a pullback to ₹528. A breakdown below ₹528 could open doors for lower levels, around ₹510.
Trading Plan:
Entry:
Bullish: Above ₹550 for targets of ₹584 and ₹600.
Bearish: Below ₹528 for targets of ₹510.
Stop-Loss:
Bullish: ₹535.
Bearish: ₹540.
Final Thoughts: UPL Ltd. is at a crucial level with a well-defined risk-reward setup. Traders should wait for confirmation of direction with strong volume support before taking positions. Monitor global agrochemical sector trends and news for potential catalysts.
Zydus Lifesciences (NSE:ZYDUSLIFE)Overview: Zydus Lifesciences is currently at an interesting juncture, with signs of a potential reversal from recent lows. The price action suggests a possible recovery towards higher resistance levels, supported by technical indicators and market sentiment. Nomura's revised price target of ₹1,030, while maintaining a Neutral rating, aligns with this view.
Key Levels to Watch:
Current Price: ₹966.65
Immediate Support (SL): ₹902.55
Key Resistance Zones: ₹1,008.35, ₹1,041.45, and ₹1,102.15
Technical Analysis:
Volume Profile: The visible range volume profile shows significant accumulation near ₹1,000, which could act as a strong magnet for the price.
Moving Averages: The stock has started reclaiming its short-term moving averages. A breakout above the 200-day MA would confirm bullish momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is trending upwards, indicating improving bullish momentum. Divergence suggests a potential reversal.
Price Action: The formation of higher lows near ₹949 reinforces the possibility of a short-term recovery.
Trading Strategy:
Entry Zone: Between ₹950 and ₹970, as the stock shows stability near support levels.
Stop-Loss: Strict stop-loss at ₹902.55 to limit downside risk.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹1,008.35
Target 2: ₹1,041.45
Extended Target: ₹1,102.15
Risk Management:
Position size will depend on risk tolerance, ensuring a Risk-Reward ratio of at least 1:2.
Avoid chasing the price above ₹970 if momentum wanes.
Final Thoughts: Zydus Lifesciences presents a favorable risk-reward scenario with clear technical signals for a rebound. However, macroeconomic factors and sector performance will play a critical role in sustaining the move. Traders should monitor price action near the resistance zones closely for signs of continuation or rejection.
Risk Appetite at a Crossroads: SPY vs. TLT Nears Key ResistanceIntroduction:
A classic market indicator for gauging risk appetite is the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . The premise is simple yet powerful: when stocks outperform bonds, the market is in a "risk-on" environment, favoring equities. Conversely, when bonds outperform stocks, it signals a "risk-off" environment, favoring safety.
For years, this ratio has trended upward within an ascending price channel, reflecting the dominance of equities over bonds in delivering superior returns. However, the ratio is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, a critical juncture for assessing the next phase of market dynamics.
Analysis:
Risk-On vs. Risk-Off: The SPY-to-TLT ratio provides a clear view of market sentiment. A rising ratio reflects confidence in equities, while a declining ratio indicates a shift toward safety in bonds.
Long-Term Uptrend: The ratio has been in a well-defined uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows. This trend underscores the market's preference for stocks over bonds in recent years.
Current Situation: As the ratio nears the upper boundary of its price channel, the potential for a slowdown or reversal increases. While the long-term uptrend remains intact, a pullback could signal a temporary period where bonds (TLT) outperform stocks (SPY).
Interest Rate Outlook: With interest rates potentially declining next year, bonds could see increased demand. However, as long as the ratio remains within its channel and continues to rise, the "risk-on" environment remains dominant.
Conclusion:
The SPY-to-TLT ratio is nearing a pivotal level that could influence market sentiment in the coming months. While the "risk-on" trend remains intact for now, a shift in dynamics could occur if the ratio fails to break through its resistance. Traders and investors should monitor this ratio closely to navigate potential shifts between equity and bond performance. What’s your outlook on this key indicator? Share your thoughts below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key resistance and support levels)
Tags: #RiskAppetite #Stocks #Bonds #SPY #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
LIVE MARKET ANALYSIS & TRADE IDEAS: USDJPY, GBPUSD, GBPAUD & CJHello Traders,
Starting off early today with a big shout out to @TradingView for their continuous improvements to the platform and the valuable tools they provide to the trading community. Well done!
Here’s my analysis for today:
USDJPY H4
The USDJPY has formed a Momentum Low, signalling a potential trend reset. The underlying trend remains bullish on this timeframe.
Expectation: Increased buying activity is anticipated from the current price level.
GBPAUD H4
The GBPAUD is trading within a 915-pip range. Inside this range, price fluctuations create highs and lows. Applying the range trading principle—buy low, sell high—recent price action shows a bullish wave structure completed on the smaller timeframe following a rally from the Momentum Low.
Current Observation: A trend reset is occurring on the smaller timeframe, breaking below 1.9508.
Trading Approach: Look for a failure to make a Lower Low (LL) on the 5-minute chart and seek opportunities to trade to the upside.
GBPUSD H4
The GBPUSD remains in a downtrend on the H4 timeframe. However, a significant reset has occurred, forming Structure 4 at 1.2714.
Ideal Trade: The preferred strategy is to sell GBPUSD. However, based on wave structure analysis on the lower timeframe, the price is not yet primed for a bearish move.
CADJPY H4
The CADJPY exhibits similar behaviour to the USDJPY, with a recent dip below the previous Momentum Low. Yesterday, a bullish trend-changing pattern emerged.
Trading Opportunity: Look for buying setups above 107.46 based on the current price action.
Wishing you successful trades and a blessed weekend!
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 29/11/2024Expected slightly gap up opening in nifty above 24000 level. After opening if it's starts trading and sustain above 24050 level then possible correction rally upto 24250 level in opening session. Downside 150-200 points rally expected below 24000 level. 23800 will act as an important support for today's session.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(29/11/2024)Today will be slightly gap up opening expected in banknifty. After opening if it's sustain above 52050 level then expected upside rally upto 52450 level. Expected strong rejection from this resistance level. Downside huge rally expected in case banknifty starts trading below 51950 level in today's session. This rally can goes upto 51050 level.
Gold--> Trade inside from channel boundaryOANDA:XAUUSD A slight increase from $2,650 after the breakout, this is generally due to political news, but the overall fundamental backdrop remains challenging. Today, liquidity is low due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.
Metal prices are affected by geopolitical risks, which remain high due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Additionally, the commitment of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico is also having an impact. "This has raised a bit more concern about the possible consequences from these two countries. So, that remains an important supporting factor for gold."
In theory, any effort to push gold prices higher may be limited because Trump’s tax plan is also considered a potential driver of inflation, which could lead the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow the process of cutting interest rates.
Technically, gold is moving sideways, so we consider trading from the range boundaries. We focus on the local channel from H1 2660 - 2618 and the global channel from D1 at 2690 (2710) - 2605.
Accordingly, at this time, gold is heading toward liquidity above. A false breakout of the main resistance zone and price consolidation in the selling area could lead to a price drop to the lower boundary of the sideways range.
USDJPY Is Approaching The Daily TrendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a buying opportunity around 150.200 zone, USDJPY is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 150.200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Gold Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 2620 zone, Gold is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 2620 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
TradeCityPro | EURCHF Analysis Rejection or Breakout?👋 Welcome to the TradeCityPro channel!
Let’s analyze this forex pair in a simple way and set triggers and alerts to prepare for potential trades.
🌍 Fundamental Overview
Euro (EUR):
Backed by the ECB's cautious stance on inflation, though mixed economic data, like declining industrial output, limits its strength.
Swiss Franc (CHF):
Strong as a safe-haven currency, bolstered by geopolitical risks. The SNB maintains a hawkish monetary policy to ensure inflation stability.
The monetary policy divergence between the ECB's mild tightening and the SNB's hawkish approach adds bearish pressure on EURCHF, favoring CHF during risk-off sentiment.
⏱ 4-Hour Timeframe
The chart remains strongly bearish, with prices near historic lows, lacking significant support ahead. Fibonacci levels can help identify potential 4H supports.
📉 Short Position Trigger:
After a rejection from the trendline, watch for a move towards the 0.92790 support.
If 0.92790 breaks with momentum, short positions can target: 0.92440 - 0.92187 - 0.91866
📈 Long Position Trigger:
While the chart shows bearish dominance, signs of trend weakness are emerging. However, long trades remain high risk in the current environment.
potential long setup could occur after breaking the trendline and the 0.9335 resistance.
For safer entries, wait for higher highs and higher lows to form, confirming a bullish shift before taking action.
📝 Final Thoughts
Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities!
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Coffee Is Getting ExpensiveCoffee is in a massive rally on tight Brazil crop fears and if we take a look at the weekly chart, we can see it trading impulsively higher with space for more gains until it fully completes a five-wave bullish cycle by Elliott wave theory, just watch out on short-term 4th wave pullbacks.
Basic Impulsive Bullish Pattern shows that Coffee can be trading in subwave "iii" of 3 of (3) of a five-wave bullish impulse of different degrees, so more gains can be seen after short-term 4th wave pullback.
TradeCityPro | LEVERUSDT Analysis Buyer Presence👋 Welcome to the TradeCityPro channel!
Let’s dive into the analysis of another cryptocurrency and review our triggers before the movement begins.
🌍 Bitcoin's Market Overview
Yesterday, we mentioned that a long position could be opened after breaking 94931, especially if Bitcoin's dominance was declining, favoring altcoins.
After a pullback to 94931, the price is now approaching 96610, where breaking this level could provide another long position opportunity. If Bitcoin's dominance continues to fall, altcoins like LEVERUSDT could see further upward momentum.
📊 Weekly Timeframe
LEVERUSDT is consolidating in a long-term range between 0.001123 and 0.003877, with a narrower short-term range between 0.001588 and 0.002317.
Following rejection from the top of the range, the price didn't drop to the bottom of the box, finding support earlier. This indicates buying strength.
breakout above 0.002317 could signal a risky buying opportunity with stop-loss levels at 0.001588 or 0.001123 for a medium-term hold.
📈 Daily Timeframe
The price has been ranging between 0.001518 and 0.002405, repeatedly testing the upper resistance.
The daily red candles rejecting resistance highlight its importance. A sharp breakout above this level could trigger a significant move.
After breaking this resistance, buyers can enter. If missed, confirmation through RSI breaking 70.13 and rising volume could provide additional confidence.
⏱ 4-Hour Timeframe
The price has shown strong movement toward the range's upper resistance, suggesting this coin might present trading opportunities this week.
For long positions, wait for a breakout above 0.002405, coupled with RSI entering overbought territory and breaking 70.13 for confirmation.
Avoid looking for short positions as the trend appears bullish. Instead, focus on potential entries at lower levels.
📝 Final Thoughts
Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities!
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
XAU/USD : Bull or Bear? (READ THE CAPTION)Analyzing the #Gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can observe that yesterday, following the announcement of a potential ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, gold experienced a significant drop, correcting by over 800 pips down to $2,605. This sharp decline created a major liquidity gap, which I anticipate will likely be filled as prices recover soon.
Additionally, today we have the critical CB Consumer Confidence data release, which could significantly impact the market and trigger high volatility. Be cautious with your trades and manage your risk effectively!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Bitcoin stall continues but will we see another push at 100K?Hi, Trading View community. Thanks for reviewing today's update. We have also examined Bitcoin.
It's been a while since our last broker update, but we could not ignore the amazing gains that crypto has been seeing lately.
Today, we examined Bitcoin's lead-up and break-out and a few scenarios based on off-price hitting different levels. Another factor we have looked at is a new record touch and whether that could lead to heavier selling, as we saw back in the COVID rally.
What do you think? Will we see 100K before Christmas? Or do we need a deeper pullback/correction before we see a rally break into the 100K area?
Good trading from Eightcap
ASIANPAINT : Going Long for about 1.25% of the net capitalTook a position in the scrip, allocating about 1.25% of the net capital. I am expecting a potential upside of around 38% to the upper trendline of the channel that has formed.
I will consider adding to the position if the price falls approximately 23% from the current level and touches the longer timeframe trendline, which is a significant support level for the scrip.
📢📢📢
If my perspective changes or if I gather additional fundamental data that influences my views, I will provide updates accordingly.
Thank you for following along with this journey, and I remain committed to sharing insights and updates as my trading strategy evolves. As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions or comments.
Other posts related to this particular position and scrip, if any, will be attached underneath. Do check those out too.
Disclaimer: The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It's essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It's important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.
BTCUSDT Technical Analysis OverviewHi guys,
Ascending Channel and Breakout:
The chart shows a long-term ascending channel that guided price action for several months. Recently, Bitcoin broke out of this channel, signaling a strong shift in bullish momentum. The breakout was accompanied by significant volume, confirming the strength of the move.
Fibonacci Levels and Pullback Zone:
After the breakout, the price retraced slightly and is now hovering around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($87,208) and the 0.5 level ($83,322). This area is critical, as it coincides with a Fair Value Gap (FVG)—a liquidity zone where buyers are likely to step in.
EMA 34 and EMA 89 Support:
Both EMA 34 and EMA 89 are acting as dynamic support levels, and their upward slope reinforces the bullish structure. This alignment confirms that the current pullback is part of a healthy correction in a broader uptrend.
Liquidity Grab Potential:
The highlighted liquidity zone suggests that price may temporarily dip to attract more buyers. A test of this zone could serve as a springboard for the next upward leg.
Upside Targets:
Using Fibonacci extensions, my first target aligns with the 1.0 level ($99,787), followed by 1.272 ($108,744) and 1.618 ($120,138). These levels represent logical points where profit-taking could occur in the next bullish wave.
Price Action Scenario:
Based on the chart, I anticipate a potential bounce from the liquidity zone and FVG, leading to a continuation of the bullish trend. However, a failure to hold the $83,322 level could invalidate this setup and shift focus back to lower support zones.
Conclusion:
The technicals suggest that Bitcoin remains bullish as long as the key support at $83,322 holds. I'm closely watching price action in the FVG zone for signs of buying pressure before targeting higher levels at $99,787 and beyond. Patience is key, as the market digests the breakout and prepares for its next major move.
GOLD → Controversial fundamental background. What's next?OANDA:XAUUSD capitalizing on the weakening of the US dollar and heading towards the areas of interest and liquidity at 2635 - 2639. But! There are signs that a flag pattern is forming. Theoretically, any attempt for gold prices to rise could be limited. PCE, GDP, and the resistance ahead...
Meanwhile, sellers pause slightly amid concerns about trade wars, geopolitical risks, expectations that the Fed will cut rates by another 25 basis points in December, recently declining US bond yields, and the USD falling overnight to a two-week low. However, ahead of the upcoming macroeconomic news from the US, namely PCE and GDP, after a relatively quiet news week, volatility is likely to be unpredictable. The question now is whether the downward momentum will continue as the price reacts to a critical support zone.
Technically, gold remains range-bound and is heading towards areas of interest from which a retracement could form. But this reaction also partly depends on the news....
The focus is on the imbalance zone, fibo 0.618 and fibo 0.5. Due to the controversial technical and fundamental background, the gold price may close inside a wide channel, which allows us to use its boundaries for trading. We are watching the resistance with a sell target for further downside
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 28/11/2024Flat opening expected in nifty. Expected opening near 24300 level. After opening if nifty gives breakout of 24350 level then only expected strong upside bullish rally upto 24550 level. Downside 24050 level will act as an important support for index. Any major downside rally only expected below this level.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(28/11/2024)Today will be flat opening expected in banknifty. Currently banknifty consolidating in range of in between 52050-52450 level. Any major rally only expected breakout of this zone. Strong bullish rally expected if banknifty gives breakout and starts trading above 52550 level. Downside 52050 will act as an strong support level for today's session.