Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 1.30.2025🔮 Nightly SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY Scenarios for 1.30.2025
📅 Thu Jan 30
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Advance GDP q/q: 2.7% (prev: 3.1%)
📊 Unemployment Claims: 221K (prev: 223K)
🌎Global Events:
🇪🇺 European Central Bank Meeting: The ECB is expected to announce its monetary policy decision, with markets anticipating a rate cut.
🇩🇪 Germany GDP Release: Germany will publish its GDP figures, providing insights into the health of Europe's largest economy.
💹 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding for a little, then chopping near the EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Markets might overreact, but this meeting was void of new information. All things markets knew beforehand.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
We will likely bounce hard from these lower levels and hold higher.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) Surges Past 50% FIB – Is $2,000 Next?
📌 Key Breakthrough in Gold!
Gold (XAU/USD) has just blasted through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical discount zone where buyers historically step in. This breakout has triggered a wave of bullish momentum, pushing price towards key resistance levels.
🔎 Technical Breakdown:
✅ 50% FIB Breakout: Price has cleared this key retracement level, signaling strong buyer demand.
✅ Key Resistance Ahead: The $2,765 zone remains the next major hurdle—a breakout here could accelerate price toward $2,825.
✅ Support Zone: The $2,745 level serves as immediate support, acting as a potential pullback area.
✅ RSI Overbought? The RSI is approaching overbought conditions, meaning a short-term consolidation could occur.
✅ MACD Crossover Incoming? A bullish MACD crossover is forming, reinforcing the upward momentum.
⚡ What’s Next?
If gold holds above the 50% FIB level and breaks $2,765. with strong volume, a push toward $2,825+ could be in play. However, failure to hold this breakout could trigger a pullback to $2.700 or lower.
📊 Will gold continue its bullish run, or is a pullback incoming? Drop your thoughts below! 👇
🚨 This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.
TradeCityPro | ATOMUSDT the FOMC Meeting Results👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel!
Let's go together on the day that the FOMC meeting and Powell's speech were held a few minutes ago, let's take a look at the results and today's talks and analyze the altcoins on the daily time frame for you.
🌐 Overview Bitcoin
Let's go together and take a look at Bitcoin, which did not have much of an impact on the interest rate news tonight and a few minutes ago, but Powell's speeches caused it to record a large but low time frame.
As expected, the score and tonight's session also had a result that was predicted in advance and it can be said that it did not affect crypto and others much and its impact on the time frame was low, but it is likely that this Bitcoin trend will continue and let's go for a new move that will be accompanied by an increase in the possible dominance of Bitcoin
The most important points of the FOMC press conference with Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve growth:
Overall, the economy in 2024 was above 2% thanks to consumer spending , In the middle of last year, housing activity stabilized .The labor market is not a source of inflationary pressures! , In three meetings, we have reduced the interest rate by 100 basis points.
Currently, monetary conditions are less restrictive and we are in no hurry to reduce it, if inflation moves towards the 2% target as expected, we will keep the interest rate unchanged for a longer period of time.
📈 Daily Timeframe
In the daily time frame, the atom rejected from 10.322 and made a lower ceiling at 7.447. Currently, it is forming a lower ceiling and ceiling, but it has more than its daily box.
Also, this move causes us to be in a falling wedge, which is bullish in nature and we usually fall into this pattern from a decline and after its trigger is activated, it sees a trend change forward and in any case it breaks from the floor. This pattern fails
To buy again in the spot, you can break the trigger of this pattern at 6.266 and buy, but make sure that this pattern breaks and a higher ceiling and ceiling is recorded and we make our purchase at 7.44, the weekly box ceiling trigger. It is also 10.332
After the break of 5.675, if the market corrects, you can move up to the level of 4.923, but after the break of 3.907, I will remove myself and take my coins out of the stake and cash them out because I saw the possibility of a 30% drop and I will not be with it.
📝 Final Thoughts
Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities!
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
AliBABA Remains In A Larger Bullish Triangle PatternAlibaba is up after the company releases AI model it says surpasses DeepSeek-v3.
Alibaba with ticker BABA is trading sideways for two years, but we are tracking a larger bullish ABCDE triangle pattern in circled wave B before we will see a continuation higher for circled wave C.
With recent rebound away from the lower triangle line due to the release of AI model that surpasses DeepSeek, seems like subwave C is finished and it's now rising within wave D which can recover the price back to the upper triangle line before we will see another and final wave E slow down to complete a triangle in circled wave B.
NASDAQ 100 (NAS100USD): Assessing the Potential BreakoutOver the past few months, the NASDAQ 100 (NAS100USD) has demonstrated a clear upward trajectory, marked by higher highs and higher lows—a classic sign of sustained bullish sentiment. However, we've seen periods of consolidation and recent volatility - let's take a look at its current technical landscape.
Current Market Overview:
As of January 29, 2025, the NASDAQ 100 is trading at approximately 21,600, a level that has served as a significant pivot point in recent trading sessions. A decisive move above this threshold could validate the ongoing uptrend and open the door to further gains.
Key Levels to Monitor:
Immediate Resistance : The 21,600 level is crucial. A sustained break above this point could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
Support Levels : Should the price retreat, the 21,300 - 21,200 are notable support areas to watch.
Recent Developments:
The market has recently experienced heightened volatility, notably a sharp dip around January 27, followed by an aggressive recovery. This shows how unpredictable the market can be and hints at continued bullish movement.
Strategic Considerations:
Breakout Confirmation : A sustained move above 21,600, ideally accompanied by increased trading volume, would provide stronger confirmation of the breakout.
Support Retest : If the price successfully breaches the 21,600 resistance, this level could transform into a support zone. A subsequent retest of this level as support could present a compelling entry opportunity for long positions.
However , considering the Fed decision and fundamental factors around todays announcement - the most likely scenario would be slightly hawkish or a hawkish pause , which would be somewhat negative for the index. This would allow price to experience a temporary drop back down to the previous support (demand) level of 21,200 before buyers re-engage.
Trading Strategies:
Long Positions on Breakout Confirmation : A clear break and close above 21,600 could signal a long (buy) entry.
Long Positions on Retest of Support : A pullback to the 21,200 support level (assuming it holds) could offer a better opportunity to enter long positions.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and it's essential to conduct your own thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always use appropriate risk management techniques and trade responsibly. OANDA:NAS100USD IG:NASDAQ PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
AUD/JPY Bearish Pennant Breakout and 500+ Pips TargetAUD/JPY represents the Australian Dollar against the Japanese Yen in the forex market. The current price is 96.800, with a target price of 86.000, indicating a strong bearish outlook. The expected price drop suggests a potential gain of 500+ pips if the trade moves as predicted. The analysis is based on the bearish pennant pattern, a continuation pattern signaling potential further downside. The price is currently consolidating within the pennant, awaiting a breakout. A bearish breakout would confirm strong selling pressure, leading to a sharp decline. Traders anticipate a drop toward the 86.000 level once the breakout occurs. This setup aligns with technical analysis, where pennants often lead to significant price movements. If the breakout is confirmed, momentum could accelerate the decline. Risk management is crucial, as false breakouts can occur.
AUD/USD Resistance Rejection and Bearish OutlookAUD/USD represents the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar in the forex market. The current price is 0.62300, with a target price of 0.60000, indicating a bearish outlook. The expected price drop suggests a potential gain of 200+ pips if the trade moves as anticipated. The analysis is based on the support and resistance pattern, a key concept in technical trading. The price has reached a strong resistance level and is facing rejection, signaling selling pressure. A rejection at resistance often indicates a shift in momentum, leading to a possible downward move. Traders anticipate the price to decline toward the next support level at 0.60000. This setup suggests bearish dominance as long as resistance holds. If the price fails to break above resistance, further downside movement is likely. Proper risk management is crucial, as market conditions can change.
GBP/USD Resistance Rejection and Bearish OutlookGBP/USD is a forex pair representing the British Pound against the US Dollar. The current price is 1.24150, and the target price is 1.21000, indicating an expected decline. This suggests a bearish outlook, with a potential gain of 300+ pips if the price moves as anticipated. The analysis is based on support and resistance levels, key technical indicators in forex trading. The price is currently facing strong resistance, leading to a rejection at this level. A rejection from resistance often signals selling pressure, pushing prices downward. Traders expect the price to drop toward the next support level at 1.21000. The setup aligns with technical analysis, where resistance acts as a ceiling for price movements. If the resistance holds, further bearish momentum could drive the price lower. Risk management is essential, as price movements can be unpredictable.
TAO ANALYSIS📊 #TAO Analysis
✅There is a formation of Falling Wedge Pattern on daily chart with a breakout and currently trading around its major resistance area🧐
Pattern signals potential bullish movement incoming after a breakout of major resistance zone
👀Current Price: $479
🚀 Target Price: $659
⚡️What to do ?
👀Keep an eye on #TAO price action and volume. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️
#TAO #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR
Part 1: How to Analyze Events in the Forex Market?
The forex market is one of the most dynamic and volatile financial markets in the world. It is deeply influenced by global events, economic data, and geopolitical developments. Traders who understand how to analyze these events can make informed decisions and capitalize on market movements.
Influence Of the Global Events:
The forex market is directly linked to global economic health. Since currencies represent the economies of their respective countries, any significant event like an interest rate decision, inflation data, or geopolitical conflict. It can cause major fluctuations in currency prices. Here’s global events play important role:
- Central Bank Policies: When the Federal Reserve (Fed) or European Central Bank (ECB) changes interest rates, it impacts global liquidity and investment flows.
- Economic Data Releases: GDP growth, inflation, and employment reports provide insights into economic stability, affecting investor confidence.
- Geopolitical Events: Wars, elections, trade agreements, and diplomatic conflicts impact currency demand and risk sentiment.
What Happens When News Is Published?
When a major economic event or news release occurs, the forex market reacts instantly. Here’s the typical stages of events:
Stage 1: Market Expectations: Before the news release, traders anticipate the outcome based on forecasts. The market often prices in expectations.
Stage 2: Immediate Volatility: If the actual data differs from the forecast, there’s a sharp price movement in the affected currency pairs.
Stage 3: Liquidity Fluctuations: Spreads widen, and liquidity dries up momentarily as traders rush to execute orders.
Stage 4: Short-Term Correction: After the initial reaction, the market stabilizes, and price action follows the broader trend.
Major Events:
Central Bank Meetings – Institutions like the Fed, ECB, BoJ, and BoE set monetary policies. Interest rate hikes strengthen a currency, while rate cuts weaken it. Forward guidance also plays a role in shaping long-term trends.
Inflation Reports (CPI & PPI): These measure inflation levels, influencing central bank decisions. Higher inflation often leads to interest rate hikes, strengthening the currency, while lower inflation may result in monetary easing, weakening it.
Employment Data (NFP & Job Reports) – The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a key indicator. Strong job growth supports a stronger USD, while weak employment data signals economic trouble.
GDP Growth Reports –:A higher-than-expected GDP growth rate boosts investor confidence and strengthens the currency, while economic contraction leads to depreciation.
Political & Geopolitical Events: Elections, government policies, trade wars, and conflicts create uncertainty, often pushing investors toward safe-haven currencies like the USD, JPY, or CHF
One's Loss, Another's Win:
When the U.S. releases strong economic data, such as higher-than-expected GDP growth, strong job reports (NFP), or an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, The demand for the U.S. dollar increases. This leads to USD appreciation against other currencies, including the euro.
For example,
---> EUR/USD falls : USD is gaining strength, it takes fewer dollars to buy 1 euro, causing the EUR/USD exchange rate to drop.
---> USD/EUR rises : USD is now wortth more, the inverse exchange rate (USD/EUR) increases, meaning 1 USD can now buy more euro.
Key strategies for trading events:
•Stay Ahead with an Event Calendar: Keep track of important economic events and central bank meetings to anticipate potential market-moving news.
• Gauge Market Expectations: Understand forecasts and market sentiment before the event to predict how the market might react.
• Implement Stop-Loss Orders: Protect your trades from excessive risk by setting stop-loss orders to cap potential losses during volatile moves.
• Wait for Market Stability: Allow the market to settle after the event to avoid getting caught in the initial volatility and better assess the trend.
• Evaluate the Market’s Response: Assess the immediate market reaction to the event to identify if the initial price move is sustainable or a short-term spike.
Drawbacks of Trading News:
High Volatility & Whipsaws: Prices can spike in both directions before settling on a trend, leading to stop-loss hunting.
Widened Spreads: During news releases, brokers often widen spreads, increasing trading costs.
Slippage: Rapid price movements can lead to orders being executed at unexpected prices.
Emotional Trading: Sudden market swings can trigger impulsive decisions, leading to losses.
Market Manipulation: Big players and institutions often move the market unpredictably before major news releases.
In the next part, we will focus on the specific events and strategies.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 29/01/2025Gap up opening expected in nifty. After opening if it's sustain above 23050 level then upside rally expected in index. Major downside possible if nifty starts trading below 22950 level. This downside can be goes upto the 22700 level after breakdown of 22950 level. 22950-23050 level act as a consolidation zone for nifty.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(29/01/2025)Today will be slightly gap up opening expected in banknifty. Expected opening near 49000 level. After opening if banknifty starts trading and sustain above 49050 level then expected upside rally of 400-500+ points in index. If reversal from this level then banknifty can move upto the 48550 level in today's session.
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 1.29.2025🔮
📅 Wed Jan 29
⏰ 2:00pm
📊 Federal Funds Rate: 4.50% (prev: 4.50%)
📜 FOMC Statement
⏰ 2:30pm
🎙️ FOMC Press Conference
💡 Global Events:
🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting: Market-moving interest rate decision and policy updates.
🇪🇺 Eurozone GDP: Preliminary Q4 GDP data for the Eurozone could impact global sentiment.
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
A further gap up would lead to it holding a little, then chopping down to EEZ.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Semis haven't recovered yet, so there's a leg higher in the markets. Looking for a chop after.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Due to the ongoing momentum, we will get a massive recovery in 1-2 days and go back to 6050.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #charting #trendtao
Wed 29th Jan 2025 AUD/USD Daily Forex Chart Sell SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being an AUD/USD Sell. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
It Appears as though the Bullish Wedge is our most probable playTrading Fam,
Time for my weekly update on the Bitcoin. A lot has occurred in the last week or so since I updated you all last, not least of which includes Deepseek AI FUD causing panic in the GPU and Power stock plays which has spilled over into our crypto space. But does this panic have merit or is this simply another retail bait, shaking out paper hands while whales continue to buy? The charts are showing me the latter is most probably true and news seems to support my thesis here as Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy acquired another 10,107 Bitcoin on the 26th of Jan.
Previously, you will remember that I had spotted a potential H&S on the charts and had posted a caution in this regard as it had potential to play out.
Shortly thereafter, I also spotted this bullish pendant at which point my bias became conflicted. Was Bitcoin going to pop or was it going to drop? We had to wait and observe further price action before it became clear.
It now looks like our bulls maintained the greatest strength as we bounced off or our neckline, and broke up above our bullish wedge, hitting resistance at 106K. We then formed another bullish pennant smaller in size, dropped from that quickly to perfectly retest the topside of our larger bullish pennant, and then came back inside the wedge for further consolidation.
If I am reading this chart correctly, our greatest probability now lies with the bulls breaking to the upside of the smaller wedge and retesting that 106K resistance level again. In time, I believe we'll break 106k to the upside and continue towards our target of 140k.
Why 140k?
When we broke above our bullish descending channel in Oct. of last year, we continued up until we hit a new high at 109k. This was our local top. We can now measure the distance from that break up (around 68k) to our new high at 109k. This same distance can be utiliized to give us a new target from our bullish wedge breakout. This fractal gives us a reasonable target of around 140k.
Hope this makes sense.
✌️Stew
EURCAD: Bullish Rally is Going to Continue 🇪🇺🇨🇦
EURCAD remains in a strong bullish trend for more than 2 weeks.
The violation of a key daily resistance is one more important bullish signal.
At the moment we see a local correction.
With a high probability, it will complete soon and
a rise will resume.
Next resistance - 1.5155
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TradeCityPro | EOSUSDT Seeking Structure Formation👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel!
Let’s analyze another altcoin on our watchlist, one of the oldest altcoins, which has experienced two bull runs so far.
📊 Weekly Timeframe
In the weekly timeframe, it’s still one of those coins that remains within its long-term range box, which has lasted nearly 1,000 days.
Recently, by making a fake breakout of its last support at 0.4485, it had an attractive upward move and reached the top of its range box at 1.3255.
I haven’t held this coin myself and probably won’t buy it in the future either, but you can make your purchase either after the box ceiling breakout or take early triggers in lower timeframes.
Now, why won’t I buy it? Because coins like EOS or LTC, which are old, didn’t even reach their previous highs during the last bull run, or at most, moved up to those levels, which isn’t very appealing.
📈 Daily Timeframe
In the daily timeframe, however, it’s one of those coins that stands a notch above others and hasn’t returned to its daily range box, holding above higher supports.
The 0.7558 level is highly significant as it represents both 50% Dow Theory wave retracement and 0.5 Fibonacci level, making it a PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone). Losing this level could delay the next bullish move, but after that, the 0.6192 level will also hold great significance.
After our move to 1.3703 and its correction, our volume has been decreasing on the retracements and increasing on every upward move—this is a good sign for bullish continuation. If, in the coming days, sellers fail to break the 0.7558 support, we might see continued range-bound movement or a temporary upward move.
For another purchase, either wait for a fake breakout at 0.7558, or you can make your purchase with the breakout of triggers at 0.9827 and 1.3703, but I’d recommend first checking the project and its community and being patient for momentum entry.
📝 Final Thoughts
Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities!
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
BUY EURUSD H4 | FOREX BEEHey Traders,
This EUR/USD H4 chart suggests a bullish scenario, with price action breaking key levels and retesting them for continuation. Here's the technical analysis:
### Observations:
1. Trend Analysis:
- The price has broken above the descending trendline, signaling a shift from a bearish to a bullish bias.
- The breakout has been followed by a successful retest within the green zone, confirming it as a support level.
2. Key Levels:
- Support: The green zone around 1.0480-1.0500 has acted as a strong support after the breakout.
- Resistance: The chart highlights a target near the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.0694.
3. Retest Zone:
- The blue highlighted area indicates a retest of the broken trendline and horizontal support. This confluence area strengthens the bullish case.
4. Fibonacci Levels:
- The 0.236 Fibonacci level (~1.0424) was successfully held, suggesting that the retracement is over and the upward momentum may resume.
5. Potential Movement**:
- The price is expected to continue its bullish movement, as indicated by the blue arrows, with a primary target around 1.0694.
---
### My Thoughts:
This chart looks bullish, with a strong base formed around 1.0480-1.0500. Watching for further confirmation through price action, such as higher highs and higher lows, would be wise. However, a break below the retest area could invalidate this setup and shift the bias.