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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 19, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸🏦 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 🏦: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, March 19, at 2:00 PM ET, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 PM ET. The Fed is widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate at its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Investors will closely monitor the Fed's economic projections and Powell's comments for insights into future monetary policy, especially in light of ongoing trade tensions and global economic uncertainties. 🇯🇵💴 Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision 💴: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to announce its monetary policy decision on March 19. The BOJ is expected to keep interest rates steady, as policymakers assess the potential impact of U.S. trade policies on Japan's export-driven economy. The yen has remained stable ahead of the announcement, with traders awaiting the BOJ's guidance on future monetary policy. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Wednesday, March 19: 🏢 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏢:This report measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings sold during the previous month, providing insight into the strength of the housing market. Forecast: 5.50 million annualized units​ Previous: 5.47 million annualized units​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Europe Vs US Break Out!This chart suggests huge long-term implications after breaking for the 2nd time this 16-year downtrend. EU since Trump took office has outperformed the US by 23%! More than half of that has occurred since the ambush on Zeleneskyy in the Oval Office. While no new high has been made yet to confirm, it is noteworthy that money may be flowing toward the EU more than the US for a decade or more. EU has a much lower debt to GDO at 80% than the US at 125%. Stock valuations are much more attractive than in the US. So much so that I labeled the EU as a value trap. Not anymore! The biggest obstacle right now is how much would a US recession impact the EU. Even if it does, I expect the EU to perform much better than the US. As such this chart should continue to outperform. I have another post up you may want to follow.
AMEX:VGKLong
by RealMacro
3
NAS100 Potential Intraday Shorts (Technical Analysis)Technical Outlook: The price action since late February has been decisively bearish, characterized by a significant decline throughout March, indicating a clear mid-term distribution phase. We observed a recent rejection from a 4H and 1H supply zone (which fell within a pronounced drop-base-drop pattern). Notably, the most recent downward push failed to establish new lows. This follows a period of rapid decline with minimal bullish resistance. This suggests two possibilities: Bulls are strategically allowing sellers to exhaust themselves before a potential countermove. The prevailing bearish momentum is overpowering any attempts at bullish recovery. Trading Considerations: The daily candle has formed a bearish engulfing pattern, confirming strong selling pressure. My trading strategy involves waiting for a price retracement back into the identified supply zone. This pullback would serve to fill existing price imbalances and trigger resting orders above, providing an opportunity to enter short positions with improved risk-to-reward ratios on lower timeframes (LTFs). Currently, there are no indications of significant bullish manipulation. Therefore, I anticipate continued downward momentum this week. It's plausible that we might witness a final bearish surge coinciding with the FOMC announcement before a potential bullish reversal - a hypothetical scenario based on technical analysis. Final Notes: The previous instance of the price trading this far below the 200 EMA occurred in December 2022, marking the culmination of a year-long bearish trend. While we are currently only one month into this downward movement, it's crucial to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. Although a bullish rally is possible, I will maintain a bearish bias and focus on short opportunities until a clear bullish reversal pattern emerges on the 4H and 1H timeframes. When such a reversal occurs, we will be ready to capitalize on the subsequent upward trend! ;)
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by Apexfx_Alpha
ARB/USDT – The zone is interesting for starting accumulation.Arbitrum - is an Ethereum layer-two (L2) scaling solution. It uses optimistic rollups to achieve its goal of improving speed, scalability and cost-efficiency on Ethereum. Arbitrum benefits from the security and compatibility of Ethereum. Another benefit is the higher throughput and lower fees compared to Ethereum. That is made possible thanks to moving most of the computation and storage load off-chain. Arbitrum’s native token is called ARB and is used for governance. Offchain Labs, the developers behind Arbitrum, announced the shift to a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) structure — the Arbitrum DAO. ARB holders can vote on proposals that affect the features, protocol upgrades, funds allocation and election of a Security Council. CoinMarketCap : #51 The hyped-up Arbitrum! 😂 📉 January - February - March 2024: Bloggers trapped a huge number of people, and now we’re seeing a massive -87% decline! Looking at the main trend, a large descending channel is forming. The price is currently at the support of the inner channel, and if the market makes a final liquidity grab with a downward wick, the price could head toward the support of the outer channel, targeting a -30% drop. In my previous trading idea, I marked the 1.1552 zone, which is exactly where the price reversed. Everything is marked on the chart—the potential profit is very solid, especially for spot trading. The price will react strongly to the resistance zones of both the inner and outer channels. 🚀 These are the moments to watch for position accumulation—when no one is interested and belief in growth is dead, not when everyone is screaming "BUY NOW!" at local tops! *I will update the trading idea as the trend develops.
Long
by KECapital
1
AUDNZD Finally Turning Bearish?AUDNZD pair turned sharply and impulsively down at the end of 2022, probably for wave A. Since the beginning of 2023, it’s been trading in a correction within a downtrend, ideally in a bigger ABC recovery within wave B, where we were observing subwave C as an ending diagonal/wedge pattern. We were actually tracking final subwave (5) of the wedge pattern within wave C of B that put the top in place, from where we saw a nice and sharp turn south which looks like an impulse into wave 1. So, after recent pullback in wave 2, the price action can resume within wave 3 of a five-wave bearish cycle, especially if we consider a broken lower wedge line.
Short
by ew-forecast
#1000CHEEMSUSDT is setting up for a breakout Long BINANCE:1000CHEEMSUSDT.P from $0,0014000 🛡 Stop loss $0,0013740 1h Timeframe ⚡ Plan: ➡️ POC is 0,0013254 ➡️ Waiting for consolidation near resistance and increased buying activity before the breakout. ➡️ Expecting an impulsive upward move as buy orders accumulate. 🎯 TP Targets: 💎 TP 1: $0.0014380 💎 TP 2: $0.0014700 🚀 BINANCE:1000CHEEMSUSDT.P is setting up for a breakout—preparing for an upward move!
BINANCE:1000CHEEMSUSDT.PLong
by MoriartyTrading
TradingView Idea for EUR/AUD (4H Chart) Market Overview: The EUR/AUD 4-hour chart displays a downtrend followed by a consolidation phase at a critical support zone. The price is currently reacting within a demand area, indicating a potential bullish reversal. Key Levels: Support Zone: ~1.7050 - 1.7100 (Highlighted in dark grey) Resistance Zone: ~1.7200 (Short-term) Target Level: ~1.74217 Potential Trade Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: If the price holds above the support zone, we could see a rebound towards 1.7200, with further continuation towards the 1.74217 target. Retest and Breakout: A slight pullback into the support zone, followed by a breakout above 1.7200, could confirm a strong buying momentum. Bearish Risk: A failure to hold above support may lead to further downside continuation. Trade Plan: Entry: Look for bullish confirmation in the demand zone. Stop Loss: Below the support zone (~1.7050). Take Profit: First at 1.7200, then 1.74217 for an extended move. Bias: Bullish if support holds, bearish if price breaks below.
Long
by ForexOptimizer
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis - 4H Chart 📌 Pair: EUR/GBP 📈 Current Price: 0.84092 Key Levels: 🔹 Support Zone: 0.83766 - A key area where price has previously bounced. 🔹 Resistance Zone: 0.84400 - A strong resistance level where price has faced rejection. 🔹 Target Level: 0.85004 - Potential bullish target if price breaks above resistance. Market Structure & Trade Idea: EUR/GBP has shown strong bullish momentum, breaking above the support zone (0.83766). Currently, price is testing the resistance level. A slight pullback toward support could provide a new buying opportunity. A break above resistance would confirm bullish continuation toward 0.85004. Trading Plan: ✅ Bullish Scenario: Wait for a pullback to 0.83766 before entering long, targeting 0.85004. ✅ Bearish Scenario: If price breaks below 0.83766, a deeper retracement to 0.82652 may follow. 🔍 Watch for: Breakout confirmation above resistance. Strong rejection from support before entering a trade.
Long
by ForexOptimizer
JPY/USD Price Action & Trade Setup Market Structure & Trend: The chart illustrates JPY/USD on the 4-hour timeframe, showing a rising channel pattern. Price has recently rejected from resistance near 0.0068058 and is now showing signs of a bearish move. Trade Setup: Bearish bias: The pair is breaking down from the channel, indicating a potential trend reversal. Key levels: Resistance: 0.0068058 Support Zone: 0.0064368 (Target area) Potential Move: A continuation of this bearish movement may lead to a drop toward the support zone. Conclusion: If the price sustains below the midline of the channel, further downside is likely. A retest of support at 0.0064368 could offer potential opportunities for either a bounce or a continuation of the bearish trend. 📌 What’s next? Watch for price action near the support zone for potential trade setups.
Short
by ForexOptimizer
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 18, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸🏛️ Federal Reserve Meeting Commences 🏛️: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two-day policy meeting on March 18, with a decision on interest rates expected on March 19. While markets anticipate that the Fed will maintain current rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, investors will closely monitor the meeting for any signals regarding future monetary policy directions.​ 🇨🇳📊 China's Economic Data Release 📊: China is set to release key economic indicators, including retail sales and industrial production figures for February. These data points will offer insights into the health of the world's second-largest economy and could have ripple effects on global markets, including the U.S.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Tuesday, March 18: 🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET) 🏠:This report measures the number of new residential construction projects begun during the month, providing insight into the housing market's strength. Forecast: 1.31 million units (annualized)​ Previous: 1.34 million units​ 🏢 Building Permits (8:30 AM ET) 🏢:This data indicates the number of permits issued for new construction projects, serving as a leading indicator for future housing activity. Forecast: 1.35 million units (annualized)​ Previous: 1.36 million units​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
PepsiCo: A Dividend King at a Discount – Time to Buy?PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) - Sector: Consumer Defensive - What It Does: Produces beverages and snacks, like Pepsi, Frito-Lay, and Quaker products. Fundamental metrics - Dividend Yield: ~3.5% - Payout Ratio: 67.8% - 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate: 7.2% - Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 2.05 - Return on Equity (ROE): 50.8% - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 18.9 - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 11.6 - Analyst Average Price Target: $167.00 - Consecutive Years of Dividend Increases: 53 -------------------------- Technical Factors The stock is currently experiencing its largest correction since the COVID flash crash, with the last major downturn occurring during the 2008 financial crisis. In such a rare scenario, it's worth considering adding one of the top Dividend Kings to your portfolio. These companies, with a track record of increasing dividends for 50 consecutive years, tend to be financially stable and reliable, making them an attractive option during market corrections. Their consistent dividend payouts offer a solid income stream, providing a level of security in uncertain times. Criteria: - Mid-round number at $150, acting as a psychological level - Channel projection from the top, aligning with the price structure - Equal waves from the top, suggesting symmetry in the correction - Previous resistance levels turning into support, reinforcing the zone - A key trendline inside the marked box, the last missing touch The price has already met most of these criteria, except for the trendline, and it has rejected upwards twice from this zone. That’s why this level presents a solid long-term opportunity to consider an entry from current levels. Make sure to conduct your own fundamental research to ensure the investment aligns with your investment thesis. While I can provide a technical "green light," it’s crucial to confirm that it also fits with the underlying fundamentals. Before you leave - Like & Boost if you find this useful! 🚀 Trade smart, Vaido
NASDAQ:PEPLong
by VaidoVeek
Market Reversal? S5TW Buy/Sell Zones + Samuel Benner Cycle!🚀 Market Timing with S5TW & Benner Cycle 🚀 Are We Near a Market Turning Point? This chart combines S5TW buy/sell zones with the legendary Samuel Benner market cycle—a historical pattern used to forecast major bull and bear trends. If history repeats, we might be at a critical decision point! 🔹 📊 S5TW Buy/Sell Zones → Key support & resistance levels mapped. 🔹 📅 Benner’s Cycle in Action → A historical blueprint for future moves. 🔹 🚀 Next Market Move? → Is a breakout or correction coming? ⚡ Why This Matters: Smart traders look at history + real-time data to anticipate moves. This analysis helps align short-term strategies with macro trends, improving accuracy on entry/exit points. 📉 Bearish or Bullish? Drop your thoughts in the comments!👇 Do you agree with this outlook? Let’s make sense of the market together. 🔥
INDEX:S5TW
by SoaringWave
How to Draw Trendlines Like a Pro – Rulers Out, Rules In!Hi everyone! If you don’t have any rules for drawing a trendline, then this is by far the most subjective technical analysis criterion of all. So, grab your ruler, and let’s dive in! ;) Without clear guidelines, you can draw it however you want, shaping the narrative to fit your bias. This makes it the perfect tool to talk yourself into a trade or justify staying in a bad one—there’s always a new “support” coming… If you don't have rules, you can always find some dots to connect, making it look "perfect" for you. In this post, I'll discuss buying opportunities using trendlines, share key rules for drawing them correctly, and highlight common mistakes to avoid - all with a focus on mid- and long-term investment opportunities. ------------------------- The Basics: How to Draw a Trendline The trendline is a highly effective tool for mid- and long-term investors to find an optimal buying zone for their chosen asset. I always take a full view of the chart, analyzing its entire history to find the longest trendline available. The longer the trendline, the stronger it is! To draw a trendline, we simply connect two points and wait for the third touch to confirm it. Easy, right? The strongest trendline comes from points that are easily recognizable—you should spot them in a split second. Maximum view, if possible Monthly chart, connect the dots and wait for a third one. For me, the third and fourth touches are the most reliable. If you have to look deeply to find where to draw a trendline, then it's already a first sign that it’s not strong! The best ones appear instantly. --------------------------- Two Myths About Trendlines Myth #1: "You cannot draw a trendline without three touching points." Don’t even remember from where I heard that kind of bs but as you see in the images above, yeah I can. If I have a correct lineup, the third touch is the strongest. Myth #2: "The more touches, the stronger the trendline." Yes, a trend appears stronger with more touches, but each additional touch increases the odds of a break or trend change. To buy from, let’s say, the sixth touch, there must be strong confluence factors, and fundamentals should support the investment. “The trend is your friend, until the end when it bends.” — Ed Seykota Sure, I’ve had great trades from the fifth or seventh touch, but as said, the area has to be strong, combining multiple criteria. Think of a trendline like 3-5 cm thick ice on a lake. You can’t break it with one hit, or the second, or the third. But after the fourth or fifth, it starts to crack, and by the sixth—boom! From my psychological perspective, the more touches, the weaker the trendline becomes. ----------------------- Rule #1: Wick to Wick or Body to Body If there aren't any anomalies, the trendline should always be drawn from wick to wick (image below) or body to body. Here was the trendline draw from wick to wick I mostly use body-to-body when there is a lot of noise on the chart and many large wicks that don’t show the real price behavior—whether from a panic sell-off or other unexpected market moves. Candlestick chart, the trendline drawn from body-to-body Tip! Body-to-body means drawing trendlines from closing prices to remove unnecessary noise from the chart. To make the chart even clearer, I often use a line chart (it tracks closing prices), which filters out the noise and gives a cleaner view of the price action. The same chart as above using line chart. Mistake to avoid: If you start from the wick but the second point is from the body, it's wrong. This can lead to misleading breakout trades or confusing rejection trades. If there are no significant large wicks, go from wicks. If a chart offers a lot of huge panic-sell wicks, use bodies instead to get a cleaner setup. Quite often, I use a hybrid version as well. We are investors, not traders. We need a price zone, not an exact price! In these cases, I combine wicks and closing prices to find the optimal trendline, which stays somewhere between them. Light-blue is the zone ----------------------- Rule #2: Higher Highs Strengthen the Trendline A trendline is more reliable if the price makes a new higher high (HH) after the previous rejection, and before it approaches a trendline. The third and fourth touch came from higher high (HH) levels This confirms that the recent trend is strong. If it all lines up, we can step in! ----------------------- Rule #3: Even Timing Between Touches A trendline rejection works best when the timing between touches is symmetrical. They don’t have to be perfectly equal but they also shouldn’t be wildly different - one touch being very small and another very large can weaken the trendline’s reliability. A good combinations is when the price comes from higher high levels, the next touch has an equal or fairly similar distance between previous ones. Yeah, there are quite a lot of touches, but you get the point; market symmetry plays an important role in making decisions. Warning: If the next touch comes too soon, especially from a lower high (LH) levels, which signals that momentum may be fading, and the touch happens at an uneven distance, it weakens the trendline’s reliability. So, watch out for that. Two alerts: uneven length between touches & comes from lower highs. Next red alert: When there are huge uneven gaps between touches, as shown in the picture below. The first and second touch compared to the second and third touch are out of balance, weakening the trendline's reliability. ------------------------ Trendline Summary: Key Criteria for Mid- to Long-Term Analysis Open the maximum chart view – analyze all available data for the asset. The higher the timeframe, the stronger the trendline. A trendline needs two clean and clear points to be drawn. The highest probability rejection happens at the third and fourth touch. If there are large wicks or panic sell-offs, use closing prices (body-to-body). Remove noise and wicks by using a line chart for a clearer view. A trendline touch is strongest when the price approaches from a higher high (HH). A trendline touch is strongest when the distance between touches is symmetrical. A slight flex in the trendline is ideal; it should be between 20 to 35 degrees, not too steep in its climb. ;) These are the main criteria for a trendline that I use when analyzing stocks or any asset from a mid-to long-term perspective. ---------------------- Trendlines Alone Are Not Enough Now, here’s the interesting part. Even if a trendline looks perfect and meets all criteria, I still won’t rush to share an analysis. Why? Because a trendline alone isn’t enough. A trendline is just one piece of the puzzle. We need multiple confluence factors in a single price zone to make the setup truly strong and reliable. Usually, I need at least 3-7 criteria to align before making a move or recommendation. So, that's it! A brief overview and hopefully, you found this informative. Feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts! Before you leave - Like & Boost if you find this useful! 🚀 Trade smart, Vaido
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by VaidoVeek
44
Bitcoin Market Cap Breakout Potential | Bullish SetupThis 1-hour chart for the Bitcoin market cap ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) suggests a potential bullish breakout. 🔹 Major Support: The price recently tested and respected a strong support zone, indicating buyers are stepping in. 🔹 Triangle Formation: A symmetrical triangle is forming, which typically leads to a breakout. 🔹 Weak High & ATH Target: If the breakout occurs, the market cap could push past previous highs, targeting the 1.88T level and beyond. 🔹 Bullish Scenario: A successful breakout above the triangle’s resistance may trigger an uptrend towards the weak high, followed by an attempt to reach new all-time highs (ATH). 💡 Key Levels to Watch: Support: 1.65T Breakout Confirmation: 1.66T+ Target: 1.88T This setup suggests a bullish continuation, but a failed breakout could lead to a retest of support. Keep an eye on volume and momentum for confirmation. What are your thoughts? Will BTC market cap break out soon? 🚀📈 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by PIPsOptimizer