Following the Plan, The Winner EURUSDIn the beginning of the year, before I start trading, I conduct my review and research and analysis (R/A) on what I am going to trade. For the EURUSD, this is what I put down on December 31, 2022, 12:33est
EUR: the ECB is looking to raise rates to fight off double digit inflation. They might have to raise rates quicker than they are thinking to fight inflation. There is also the Russia/Ukraine issue that is going on, with the EU looking to cap Russian Oil. Price is pushing higher, which I think will be able to hit 1.10 at least. Eventually I think price will push lower as the economy stagnates and a possibly recession is induced. I am thinking of getting in this pair, but I am going to wait until price pushes to 1.10 and then decide from there. If the FED diverges with the ECB, the same might happen like in 2015, where price starts pushing higher as the FED starts to wind down rate hikes and possibly reduce rates, which the ECB pushes rates higher. I am thinking that possibly at the end of the year price might be around 1.15, but that is dependent on what happens with the EU economy.
On March 04, 2023, 09:34est, this is what I had jotted down:
EUR: the 1.10 lvl and the 1.05 lvls are prices that are catching my eye. If price is able to crack the 1.10 and hold above it, price is likely to continue higher. Price might be able to do this if the ECB remains hawkish and the FED starts becoming more reserved in their rate hikes. The ECB is going to raise rates by 0.50% this upcoming rate decision and three other times. If the ECB becomes increasingly hawkish, price will be able to gain a lot of momentum higher. If the 1.10 lvl is broken, price might be able to hit 1.12, but I am not too sure about 1.15. The reason being is the Euro Area economy is hanging on. Almost everything is declining, inflation is high, and the ECB has to know it is in a tough spot.
On March 26, 2023, 11:16est:
EUR: the ECB is hawkish and is will to raise rates further. But with the banking issues and their economy tethering on the brink of a great recession like style as the US, I am not sure if they are going to eventually pull bank. If the data in the US mints higher, then it will be interesting to see where price on there goes. Traders and investors always want to move too safe havens, so if the data does mint higher, it is likely that price will push lower. I am thinking that the EUR might be able to hit the 1.10 lvl, which will likely become a strong resistance.
I stopped trading for a while due to training and other things that came up. But in July 28, 2023, 23:42, I conducted a rollup and on the EUR/USD I typed up:
EUR: getting into a short position and holding might be the best bet. The Euro Zone compared to the US economy, is one sided, with the US economy winning considerably. GDP is at 0% (QoQ), unemployment at 6.5%, wages is growing though, inflation at 5.5%, balance sheet is shrinking which means banks and businesses and so on are losing capital and having to rein things in, interest rate is at 4.25%, industrial and manufacturing is negative and condensing, retail sales is showing that people are not spending, and housing is pushing lower. The Euro Zone economy has stagnated and seems to be going through what the US went through in the 70’s. So this might come to fruition and price might be able to hit the support at 1.06 and possibly parity. If there is a goal to dethrone the USD, it might take awhile if the other currencies aren’t able to prop themselves up.
So.......... what I see is that the EURUSD is moving how I've been speculating and following through with what I've been thinking. With the FED thinking about pausing on rates but keeping interest rates at current lvls for a while and the ECB looking to pause on rates hikes while inflation is still high, this could be enough of a mixture to push the EURUSD lower. The 1.10 lvl is causing a lot of issues for price to push lower, but I think overall, price may have enough momentum to push to the 1.08. I have a short position on this pair to see if I am correct or not. If price does move against me and does push higher, I'll get into a hedge and see about reducing risk.
Do you own due diligence. This is the way I trade and my own R/A for education purposes. Trading has a lot of risk, so protect yourselves and trade your own way. Have some great trading out there.
