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Is Under Armour a buy at (21.50)?Under Armor missed their revenue target after 26 consecutive quarters of at least 20% revenue growth. Since trading above $52.50 in 2015, their shares have fallen 60%, now trading under $22.00. This article from spring of last year sums up the "athletic wear" market pretty well. For me, I think this stock needs some time to settle down. The article speaks about saturation in the athletic wear market. At first Nike, Under Armour, and few others dominated the space. Soon though, other brands entered and stores started to private label their own lines. Prices have came down. So, is this just a cycle that needs some time weed out the weak hands? Probably. Most of the fundamental news I read is negative on this stock and clothing in general. Contrarian play? Maybe This company is currently worth 8.7 billion. Is that a reasonable valuation based on what we know? Possibly. Here is my thinking: Warren Buffet in his 1991 annual letter spoke about the d/f between an "economic franchise" and a "business". He stated and economic franchise arises from a product or service that (1) is needed or desired; (2) is thought by it's customers to have no close substitutes; (3) is not subject to price regulation. In contrast a "business" earns exceptional profits only if it is the low cost operator or if supply of its product or service is tight. He noted the later usually does not last and being the low cost operator can work if superior management is at the helm. So when we apply the "economic franchise" test to Under Armour what do we get using reasonable assumptions. (1) I believe their product is needed and desired. (2) I think some customers are loyal, but at scale I am not sure if that is true? (3) They cannot price their product aggressively. See the linked article. Competition has forced prices lower. To wrap up: I believe they have a strong enough brand that their products will be needed and desired in the future. Unlike some companies that entered the "athleisure" category, I believe it is likely they will survive a washout, if one comes. Is 8.7 billion a fair price to pay? This where investing is so fun. There is a range of outcomes over the long term, from going to zero(0% probability IMO) to being worth 100 billion(very low probability IMO) and a range of everything in between. I just ask this, is it a reasonable probability that this company will be worth more than 8.7 billion in 3,5, or 10 years. Yes, I think that is reasonable. Do you?
NYSE:UAA
by CalebDismuke
GBPNZD - LongPossible long set-up on GBPNZD. Recent Daily double bottom at weekly support zone of 1.6850 - which is historical lows for price. Daily break and retest of the zone with a hammer close on 31/01/2017 signalling bullish intent of price Daily 61% fib retracement and support The monthly close was also today and while bearish it shows a strong lower wick rejecting this weekly support of 1.6850 Target is placed around the Daily level of resistance at 1.7700 (initial fib extension will be monitored closely on the daily and my stop will be trailed
Long
by Erudite_Investments
GBPUSD SKACAPITAL Looking short on this pair as the previous day candlestick closed as a strong bearish marbozou. However, on the open of the market we can expect a pull pack up to the 4 hourly 50-61.8% level (1.23500). If price breaks above the bearish trend line we could expect price to move up to the 61.8% daily level (highlighted by red box). As traders we must understand nothing is guaranteed. Therefore its about understanding the key levels whilst adopting key money management strategies. As you could see we have 3 trade setups. THESE ARE NOT CONFIRMED! These trade setups are just ideas, we would await PA confirmation around these levels. If they do look bearish then these tradesetups would be set up accordingly.
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94
Frontier communications(FTR) nearing important supportTechnically Speaking Price is coming up on the support zone b/w 3-4. The R/R seems to favor a long position at these levels. A good target would be the 2015 high print around 8.50. Risk For me, I always think about risk, not as volatility, but the probability of a permanent loss of capital. You can never know for sure what the probability is but I think most people can come to a conclusion about what is most likely. Two links to get an idea of the companies troubles: 1. seekingalpha.com 2. www.fool.com What to do? How much of your portfolio are you willing to risk to see if this trade will play out in your favor? 1%, 2%, 5%? Only you can answer that questions.
FLong
by CalebDismuke
Can Halliburton clear resistance at 47.50?Technically Speaking HAL found resistance right where you would expect, the pivot at 47.50 and the 200 WMA. A clear move above that level and there is plenty of air until the 2015 high above 72.50. A rejection could see a move back toward the 2016 low prints. Of course, the outcome will depend on the companies earnings vs the current expectations. Earnings come out on 10/19 as noted on the chart, so proceed with caution. Fundamentals HAL currently sports a div yield of 1.55%-https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AHAL&ei=I5MFWKG2IoGmmAGr-r_wAQ Here is their div history: www.nasdaq.com As always, trade your plan. Nobody knows what the future holds or how a companies stock price will react to any given set of earnings or events. All we can do as traders is pick our spots, limit risk, and take the trades we feel like we understand and have an edge. That's it. My favorite quote "Superior investment results can only stem from a better-than-average ability to figure out when risk-taking will lead to gain and when it will end in loss. There is no alternative". Howard Marks. Check his memos out, they are a great read. www.oaktreecapital.com
NYSE:HAL
by CalebDismuke
DollarYen PennantPennants are often considered continuation patterns, a break-out of which often yields a major advance. Coiling is a common feature in market patterns as changes in buying and selling intensity yield to the outcomes of excess demands or supply. Given patterns such as pennants are considered to have some predictive function, there is a reflexive propensity for them to work, at least insofar as they are widely observed... In shorter macro time horizons, with fewer people to observe patterns and a greater instance of false-breaks due to a preponderance of algorithms and so forth, I take these entries with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, it is a logical basis upon which to add, at least on the basis of my priors.
Long
by PrometheusCHT
Expecting Sell Setup | Double Top FormationPolitically : It Trump won the election, it doesn't mean that USD rises too much. Still it is not clear if Trump is going to succeed what he says or not. Other countries such as Mexico and China will have response to Trump. I expect this pair to consolidate even if it is going to go higher. Technically : the pair has completed five waves and should consolidate Fundamentally : Japan's economy is strengthening like USA as well. Japan's export was recorded higher Note : I don't know about politics. I wrote what I was thinking
by UnknownUnicorn372507
Short (NZD/USD) at 83.10.I am short at 83.10 with a stop at 83.25. I sold last Friday after a failure at the 83.20 level. My first target to B/E is ~80. Here is my framework on how I think through a trade. Is this trade worth taking? * Where is the R/R right now? Is it obvious? * Is the market trending or ranging in the time frame you are watching? * Is price currently at a level that is obvious to all market participants? Remember, it is their orders that will push your trade to profit or loss. What are other traders seeing? * What is the price action? Is it obvious? * What would you regret more, passing on the trade and watching it go for 100's of pips without you, or losing a small % of your account? * In my experience, mistakes of omission are far more painful than mistakes of commission. After thinking through these questions, is this a trade you would like execute? " With intelligent estimations, we can work to get the rough order of magnitude right, understand the consequences if we’re wrong, and always be sure to never fool ourselves after the fact. " Questions, comments? please leave below. Have a good day.
Short
by CalebDismuke
83.35-Major pivot level (NZD/JPY)I am counting 10 straight positive weeks for this pair. Momentum is powerful, so more upside could be in store, but the R/R favors a short position from these levels IMO. My target is noted on the chart(green arrow). That is an aggressive target, however, I have found the big money is in the big swings, so I am willing to wait. I will update this chart if I take a short position. Please leave any comments below. I would like your thoughts.
by CalebDismuke