Get started

Technicals

Short (NZD/USD) at 83.10.I am short at 83.10 with a stop at 83.25. I sold last Friday after a failure at the 83.20 level. My first target to B/E is ~80. Here is my framework on how I think through a trade. Is this trade worth taking? * Where is the R/R right now? Is it obvious? * Is the market trending or ranging in the time frame you are watching? * Is price currently at a level that is obvious to all market participants? Remember, it is their orders that will push your trade to profit or loss. What are other traders seeing? * What is the price action? Is it obvious? * What would you regret more, passing on the trade and watching it go for 100's of pips without you, or losing a small % of your account? * In my experience, mistakes of omission are far more painful than mistakes of commission. After thinking through these questions, is this a trade you would like execute? " With intelligent estimations, we can work to get the rough order of magnitude right, understand the consequences if we’re wrong, and always be sure to never fool ourselves after the fact. " Questions, comments? please leave below. Have a good day.
Short
by CalebDismuke
83.35-Major pivot level (NZD/JPY)I am counting 10 straight positive weeks for this pair. Momentum is powerful, so more upside could be in store, but the R/R favors a short position from these levels IMO. My target is noted on the chart(green arrow). That is an aggressive target, however, I have found the big money is in the big swings, so I am willing to wait. I will update this chart if I take a short position. Please leave any comments below. I would like your thoughts.
by CalebDismuke
Short GBP/JPY, looking for lower pricesShort and looking for lower prices Price found sellers at a previous low print on 6/16 around 145.40. I sold with as stop above today's high. My first target is the green arrow at 142.20. If and when it gets there I will decide what to do next. Markets rarely go one way for an extended period of time. This cross has been straight up since 11/9 with one minor dip. That does not mean it will not go higher, but we as traders are looking for the best R/R. With this pair, I believe the short side is the better bet at these levels. Would love to hear your thoughts in the comments. Happy trading. Last week's results. 2 trades, 1 winner, 1 loser, for a net gain of +46 pips. Not a great week, but still to positive, I'll take it.
Short
by CalebDismuke
Sold USD/CHF, looking for parityTechnically Speaking You can't see it on the chart but the 2 level has been a good level to sell against in the past. I sold at 1.0170, stop at 1.0215. Initial target is 1.0000. Here is my checklist I go through before taking a trade. Is this trade worth taking? * Where is the R/R right now? Is it obvious? * Is the market trending or ranging in the time frame you are watching? * Is price currently at a level that is obvious to all market participants? Remember, it is their orders that will push your trade to profit or loss. What are other traders seeing? * What is the price action? Is it obvious? * What would you regret more, passing on the trade and watching it go for 100's of pips without you, or losing a small % of your account? In my experience, mistakes of omission are far more painful than mistakes of commission. After thinking through these questions, is this a trade you would like execute?
Short
by CalebDismuke
Technical Analysis?I have a straight question to you, and would love to hear your answer in comment section. What is technical analysis? Can you define it? Most people think that I am technical trader, but I am not. I have nothing to do with technicals as I don't use them, so what is the definition? I will write what I think about it, and it is only my subjective opinion. You can write your's too. There is no definition. Anyone can make up anything and call it technical analysis. The field now seem to encompass everything from drawing trend lines to astrology. Technical analysis started out with quite simple concepts, which are not all that dumb. In the early days, it was about looking for directional trends in prices and divergences between related market indexes. Experience told traders that when prices start moving in one direction, they are more likely to continue than to reverse. Technical analysis was just a way to visualize this concept. Divergences was mostly about comparing the Dow Jones Industrial with the Dow Jones Transport, the two most important indexes at the time, and draw conclusions from potential differences. Adding things like simple oversold/overbought indicators is still in the realm of sanity. Again, experience had taught traders that extreme short term moves are often followed by a sudden pullback. Emotions run wild as the price takes off, propelling the price further until a short term correction sets in when the buyers are already in and there’s no one left to push the price higher. Common sense things where technical analysis was used as a tool to visualize abstract phenomena. Then the problems set it. The visual nature of technical analysis lends itself to get-rich-quick stories. After all, there’s no need for all that hard work, right? Why waste time learning tough things and gaining real life experience when all you have to do is look at a chart and draw some lines? It was only a matter of time before this field was completely taken over by snake oil salesmen. To be fair, some of them are probably just delusional and not outright immoral. There are no rules for what technical analysis is. So it became everything. In particular, everything that is easily sold. The more colorful naming and background story, the easier the sell. At first we had the indicator explosion. An easy way to get famous in the field is to create an indicator. Especially if you manage to get that indicator included in standard technical analysis software packages. So everyone and his grandmother started making indicators in hopes of fame. It’s a comfortable illusion, that all you need is to find the right indicators and you’ll be rich in no time at all. Just get those parameters right. Then we have the field of exotic names. Doji, three little soldiers, spinning dragons, crouching tigers, ichimoko, harami, spanking monkeys, and tons of more colorful names. Well, I might have made some of them up, but if others are allowed to make up random exotic names, why can’t I? Beware of anything that sounds ‘cool’. Most likely it has no other use than to sell products that won’t help you. Do I say all Tech is crap? No, I wouldn’t go that far. There are actually plenty of professionals using concepts originating from technical analysis. Usually they don’t use the term though, for reasons made clear above. It has a very poor reputation. Trend following, the main strategy of the 300 billion dollar CTA industry, has its roots in technical analysis. A large part of quantitative, systematic trading is based on ideas from that came out of that field. Peace. TPP
FX:XAUUSD
by TheZabisyu
9