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Technicals

The Bears are still in full force on CrudeThere seems to be no shortage of bearish news on Crude oil lately. In fact, today's 'dark cloud cover' candlestick pattern is a bearish rejection of the level formed by Friday's close proves the little rally we saw on 2015-01-22 was merely just a short covering frenzy. Almost all the technicals indicate we are in a solid downtrend. The Aroon indicator is still at almost maximum divergence, and the ADX indicates a very strong downtrend. Although the MACD seems to have crossed, the strength of today's rejection shows its not likely to last. The OBV indicates strong selling pressure, and the RSI confirms this might be a good time to enter a short position. Also note that it closed below the important psychological and technical level of $30, as it is consistently breaking lower lows. The only concern is the distance from the Ichimoku cloud. Typically, this amount of distance may indicate a rally is near as we saw on 2015-08-27.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Green Light on US Treasuries The China crisis has the world's markets in panic mode. Stocks had the worst first week in history. Currencies are tumultuous and volatile. Its difficult to endorse the Euro for anything more than short term swing trades at best due to their own problems. Commodity currencies are sure to tank, and stocks are too volatile lately in my opinion. One good idea for a long seems to be US treasury products, which historically have faired well in times of fear and panic. In particular, take a look at this bull ETF which tracks the US ten year treasury note. Observe the steadily rising lows and the roughly consistent level the highs have maintained at $78.00, a nice round number at that. Further, note the support from below via the ichimoku cloud indicating that a 'bounce' or retracement may be in order from the recent bearish momentum of the past week. The RSI confirms its a great time to get in, though admittedly, the MACD still suggests a bit of bearish momentum. I'd set a stop loss at either $73.75, or $72.50, both recent lows and psychologically sound, round numbers.
DLong
by quantguy
Remninmi Bottomed?With the China crash still fresh on everyone's minds its time to ask if the Renminbi has bottomed out or if there is still room to crash. Based on the link attached, there seems to be the potential for a lot more bad debt that China is trying to avoid confronting, and probably couldn't even account for if they tried. On the technical side, note the massive resistance from above via the Ichimoku cloud, successive massive drops and the inability to break previous highs. There seems to be a nice profit target at about 0.13730, which was tested and rejected on October 14th. As for a stop loss, there seems to be a level of support around 0.14032. The MACD and RSI do not indicate that this asset is oversold, despite the massive downturn as of late.
Short
by quantguy
China fears wreck commodity currenciesAs we all know by now, the Chinese markets were only open 14 minutes before a crushing 7% loss tripped safeguards. Recently, news came out to the effect that we can expect a further devaluation of their currency. This will hurt commodity currencies like AUD. In fact, its slipping as I'm writing this. My short position is bolstered by massive pressure from above via the Ichimoku Cloud, and the difference between the MACD and signal is rapidly closing suggesting a bearish turnaround. The RSI gives us a green light.
Short
by quantguy
Bearish outlook on the S&PA variety of technical indicators coupled with the Fed's recent rate rise may suggest a bearish outlook on the S&P 500. Note the gap up on 12/15 only to be followed by a gap down two days later, from which SPY was never able to recover. We also see tremendous pressure from above via the Ichimoku Cloud, but lots of room to fall from below. The MACD/RSI combo suggest a meager attempt at reversal, though the OBV suggests massive selling pressure. Look to today's high at $202.67 as a stop loss and the congestion area right around 200.80 for a profit target
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
The Rich Get Richer...While the Fed is boasting good data supporting rate hikes, they neglect to mention the fact that 51% of Americans make less than $30K a year, or that they work more hours than any country in the world. Something else they focus on are broad market indices for which the top 500 companies carry the slack of the smaller cap companies which are feeling the weight of the economy on their shoulders. The Vanguard small cap ETF tracks such small cap businesses and multiple factors besides fundamentals point to a good short position on a swing trade. For example, none of the highs can come anywhere close to December's levels. There's lots of resistance from above via the Ichimoku cloud, and MACD, RSI, and OBV indicators suggest lots of downward momentum and selling pressure. There's a relative vacuum below, but look for 12/17's high of $112.65 as a stop loss as this is the most recent high.
AMEX:VBShort
by quantguy
Candadian Dollar Still Can't Keep UpLargely a function of what crude oil is doing, the Canadian dollar simply cant keep up, even despite the rally in crude earlier today. Further, weak jobs data does not help. Although we have a nice 0.7403, the slope of the upper bounds steepens indicating the bears are awake. Also, there is a "dark cloud cover" candlestick pattern indicating a level was tested and rejected. Finally, with a finer time scale we see what looks to be a head and shoulders pattern forming. There is strong resistance from the Ichimoku cloud from above as well. The MACD/RSI indicate a strong downtrend.
Short
by quantguy
How to Profit from the IMF's Decision on the YuanFollowing the IMF's decision to add the Yuan to the SDR bucket. Fundamentally, this will imply a rush to stock up. Many central banks keep a reserve supply of other currencies, commodities, etc, with an emphasis on SDR's. This fact, coupled with the dollars eventual deceleration come an interest rate decision in December could imply that CNHUSD will be a good long trade. The technicals look weak, to be completely honest. There is some resistance from above via the Ichimoku cloud and the MACD suggests some negative momentum, though the MACD/RSI combination does suggest now is a good time to make a move, not necessarily a long position. This chart pattern does look conspicuously like an ABCD pattern waiting to happen. The ratio of the first leg is right in the sweet spot at just over 0.6, so assuming a completion of this pattern, we can expect the other leg between 1.2 and 1.6, so a conservative profit target has been set using a ratio of 1.2, which is right around 0.15829. Assuming a 50% Fibonacci retracement anchored at 8/25 and 10/30, we can set a stop loss at 0.15208.
Long
by quantguy
Markets Shake with Impending Rate HikeThe bullish run for the markets appears to be slowing especially as the impending interest rate hike gets becomes more of a reality. Some bearish signs are especially prevalent for QQQ, as we see a relative vacuum area from below and lots of room before we hit any resistance from the Ichimoku cloud. Moreover, the RSI, MACD and OBV all indicate an unfortunate turn of momentum for this asset. For profit targets, consider the first fibonacci level at around 111.59, or the high of 10/22 at 109.82. Be especially wary of 115.52 as it corresponds to a recent high and a fibonacci level concurrently.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by quantguy
BTCUSD Short Term Long TradeBTCUSD looks like it might rally here shortly. We see some strong resistance from below via the Ichimoku cloud. The OBV indicates strong buying pressure still. The MACD and RSI are right in the 'sweet spot'. Moreover, we have somewhat higher lows and a double bottom formation. The Fibonacci retracement indicates some nice profit targets, otherwise we can use the level at 384.90 or so. For a stop loss consider the congestion area around 379.37. As for fundamentals, BTCUSD seems to have come back into favor after retracing a bit from its epic rally last week as per the linked article.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Short ATT? With Pleasure!AT&T is a terrible, clandestine company and they deserve to fail. This is not the reason I am shorting them, however. Since the downgrade on 10/09 the stock seems to have trouble achieving and maintaining new levels. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud indicates some resistance from above at 35.63 or so, there is a lot of room to spare before we reach that level. The OBV indicator tells us that there is decreased buying pressure, and the MACD has recently crossed over. Finally the RSI confirms that this is a 'sweet spot' to make a trade. For intermediary profit targets consider the two levels drawn from the lows going back to early October at 33.18 and 33.00, but note that after that, its smooth sailing through the vacuum area to the high of 10/02 at around 32.61. Stop losses may be set analogously using the relative high at 33.73, the Ichimoku cloud at 33.63, or if it crosses over the line segment forming the upper bound of the wedge.
NYSE:TShort
by quantguy
GBPUSD Shorting OpportunityLower highs on the day chart note that the GBP is struggling to maintain footing. Further, the strong resistance from above by the Ichimoku cloud casts doubt on any bullish rallies. The RSI and MACD indicators suggest that this is an optimal time to enter a position. The Fibonacci retracement gives us some profit targets and stop losses, as well as a level at 1.5373 that could serve as a trigger to execute the short order. On the fundamentals side, the attached forecasts a rally in the dollar. This was confirmed at about 3 am this morning when the dollar rallied against all majors around 3 am.
Short
by quantguy
Stocks update: Symantec bullish ahead of earningsSymantec (SYMC) is scheduled to report earnings on Aug 11, after market close. The EPS consensus is 43 cents per share vs. 45 year ago. A number of bullish candlestick patterns have emerged lately: Morning Star, Piercing Line and break-away gap. They suggest there is a Double Bottom formation in place, which may lead to higher prices (24,72 and 24,68). Upside potential exceeds 5%. Symantec Corporation is a security, backup and availability solutions. The Company’s products and services protect people and information in any digital environment from the smallest mobile device, to the enterprise data center, to cloud-based systems. The stock is down 10% YTD. It has P/E of 18.02 and forward P/E of 11.26.
S
by Nickonomics