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Technicals

Bearish outlook on the S&PA variety of technical indicators coupled with the Fed's recent rate rise may suggest a bearish outlook on the S&P 500. Note the gap up on 12/15 only to be followed by a gap down two days later, from which SPY was never able to recover. We also see tremendous pressure from above via the Ichimoku Cloud, but lots of room to fall from below. The MACD/RSI combo suggest a meager attempt at reversal, though the OBV suggests massive selling pressure. Look to today's high at $202.67 as a stop loss and the congestion area right around 200.80 for a profit target
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
The Rich Get Richer...While the Fed is boasting good data supporting rate hikes, they neglect to mention the fact that 51% of Americans make less than $30K a year, or that they work more hours than any country in the world. Something else they focus on are broad market indices for which the top 500 companies carry the slack of the smaller cap companies which are feeling the weight of the economy on their shoulders. The Vanguard small cap ETF tracks such small cap businesses and multiple factors besides fundamentals point to a good short position on a swing trade. For example, none of the highs can come anywhere close to December's levels. There's lots of resistance from above via the Ichimoku cloud, and MACD, RSI, and OBV indicators suggest lots of downward momentum and selling pressure. There's a relative vacuum below, but look for 12/17's high of $112.65 as a stop loss as this is the most recent high.
AMEX:VBShort
by quantguy
Candadian Dollar Still Can't Keep UpLargely a function of what crude oil is doing, the Canadian dollar simply cant keep up, even despite the rally in crude earlier today. Further, weak jobs data does not help. Although we have a nice 0.7403, the slope of the upper bounds steepens indicating the bears are awake. Also, there is a "dark cloud cover" candlestick pattern indicating a level was tested and rejected. Finally, with a finer time scale we see what looks to be a head and shoulders pattern forming. There is strong resistance from the Ichimoku cloud from above as well. The MACD/RSI indicate a strong downtrend.
Short
by quantguy
How to Profit from the IMF's Decision on the YuanFollowing the IMF's decision to add the Yuan to the SDR bucket. Fundamentally, this will imply a rush to stock up. Many central banks keep a reserve supply of other currencies, commodities, etc, with an emphasis on SDR's. This fact, coupled with the dollars eventual deceleration come an interest rate decision in December could imply that CNHUSD will be a good long trade. The technicals look weak, to be completely honest. There is some resistance from above via the Ichimoku cloud and the MACD suggests some negative momentum, though the MACD/RSI combination does suggest now is a good time to make a move, not necessarily a long position. This chart pattern does look conspicuously like an ABCD pattern waiting to happen. The ratio of the first leg is right in the sweet spot at just over 0.6, so assuming a completion of this pattern, we can expect the other leg between 1.2 and 1.6, so a conservative profit target has been set using a ratio of 1.2, which is right around 0.15829. Assuming a 50% Fibonacci retracement anchored at 8/25 and 10/30, we can set a stop loss at 0.15208.
Long
by quantguy
Markets Shake with Impending Rate HikeThe bullish run for the markets appears to be slowing especially as the impending interest rate hike gets becomes more of a reality. Some bearish signs are especially prevalent for QQQ, as we see a relative vacuum area from below and lots of room before we hit any resistance from the Ichimoku cloud. Moreover, the RSI, MACD and OBV all indicate an unfortunate turn of momentum for this asset. For profit targets, consider the first fibonacci level at around 111.59, or the high of 10/22 at 109.82. Be especially wary of 115.52 as it corresponds to a recent high and a fibonacci level concurrently.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by quantguy
BTCUSD Short Term Long TradeBTCUSD looks like it might rally here shortly. We see some strong resistance from below via the Ichimoku cloud. The OBV indicates strong buying pressure still. The MACD and RSI are right in the 'sweet spot'. Moreover, we have somewhat higher lows and a double bottom formation. The Fibonacci retracement indicates some nice profit targets, otherwise we can use the level at 384.90 or so. For a stop loss consider the congestion area around 379.37. As for fundamentals, BTCUSD seems to have come back into favor after retracing a bit from its epic rally last week as per the linked article.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Short ATT? With Pleasure!AT&T is a terrible, clandestine company and they deserve to fail. This is not the reason I am shorting them, however. Since the downgrade on 10/09 the stock seems to have trouble achieving and maintaining new levels. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud indicates some resistance from above at 35.63 or so, there is a lot of room to spare before we reach that level. The OBV indicator tells us that there is decreased buying pressure, and the MACD has recently crossed over. Finally the RSI confirms that this is a 'sweet spot' to make a trade. For intermediary profit targets consider the two levels drawn from the lows going back to early October at 33.18 and 33.00, but note that after that, its smooth sailing through the vacuum area to the high of 10/02 at around 32.61. Stop losses may be set analogously using the relative high at 33.73, the Ichimoku cloud at 33.63, or if it crosses over the line segment forming the upper bound of the wedge.
NYSE:TShort
by quantguy
GBPUSD Shorting OpportunityLower highs on the day chart note that the GBP is struggling to maintain footing. Further, the strong resistance from above by the Ichimoku cloud casts doubt on any bullish rallies. The RSI and MACD indicators suggest that this is an optimal time to enter a position. The Fibonacci retracement gives us some profit targets and stop losses, as well as a level at 1.5373 that could serve as a trigger to execute the short order. On the fundamentals side, the attached forecasts a rally in the dollar. This was confirmed at about 3 am this morning when the dollar rallied against all majors around 3 am.
Short
by quantguy
Stocks update: Symantec bullish ahead of earningsSymantec (SYMC) is scheduled to report earnings on Aug 11, after market close. The EPS consensus is 43 cents per share vs. 45 year ago. A number of bullish candlestick patterns have emerged lately: Morning Star, Piercing Line and break-away gap. They suggest there is a Double Bottom formation in place, which may lead to higher prices (24,72 and 24,68). Upside potential exceeds 5%. Symantec Corporation is a security, backup and availability solutions. The Company’s products and services protect people and information in any digital environment from the smallest mobile device, to the enterprise data center, to cloud-based systems. The stock is down 10% YTD. It has P/E of 18.02 and forward P/E of 11.26.
S
by Nickonomics
Gold: Triangle still unresolved; Entry levels refinedThe US employment report was mixed. Payrolls posted a 215,000 jobs gain, around June's level, while analysts had expected 225,000. The previous number was upwardly revised to 231,000. The unemployment rate remained at 5.3%, while wage growth came out at 2.1% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in the previous month. According to a latest Reuters poll, the median probability for septermber rate hike estimated by US primary dealers is 60% vs 55% in June. The number for December meeting stands at 80%. 9 of 19 dealers expect two rate hikes this year. The short-term reaction has been very volatile, with violent swings in both directions. The price of Gold has tested both trendlines that form the Triangle pattern. There is a clear 5-wave advance that usually sets a new uptrend. The key support cluster is projected @1089. Our approach is to wait for a 4-hour candle to close either above 1099 to generate a buy signal; or below 1082 for a sell signal. While the intraday chart to the right suggests higher prices based on last swing's wave structure, the long-term trend is, obviously, down.
FX:XAUUSD
by Nickonomics
2
GBP/USD Accelerates higher on weak ADP reportEmployment in the US private sector disappointed last month, shattering hopes that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. The number of employees increased by 185,000 in July compared to the 229,000 booked in June, according to ADP. On Friday, the non-farm payroll report will provide further hints of labor market development, with analysts expecting a gain of 220,000 people added to the workforce, while the unemployment rate should stay intact at 5.3%. The news spurred US Dollar sell-off with GBPUSD trading near session highs at 1.5646. Technically, there is an Inverse Head&Shoulders pattern developing. Its right shoulder took the form of a 'bear trap', which adds to British Pound strength. Please, mind the heavy event risk on Thursday. The Bank of England meeting will be closely watched following a series of comments from MPC members, including Governor Carney, that the first rate hike since the crisis is moving closer. In conjunction with Thursday’s interest rate decision, for the first time we also have the simultaneous release of the MPC meeting minutes and August Quarterly Inflation Report, followed by a press conference. This deluge of information flow has been dubbed 'Super Thursday' among analysts.
by Nickonomics
SPX500 -- My Predicted, "Market Meltdown of 2016-2017"Prepare for the coming storm. It's been a nice long run, but all good rallies must come to an end. We're nearing an inevitable drop. The market has sustained this rally for too long, on lower and lower bullish volume, is losing momentum, and will crash. You can see other equities and indicies preparing for the same style of drop. Do not get blindsided! This is not the "End" for us, but "They" will be capitalizing on this chance to gain more controlling interest of all equities and indicies just like they did during Y2K, 2008's stock market crash and this inevitable meltdown. Please prepare accordingly and do not not-believe that this cannot happen. Protect your fortunes and assets! Thank you for your time and God bless you all.
FX:SPX500Short
by Crit_Nasty
9
Orderflow in FX explainedWhat is orderflow? Order flow in any market is the placing of either pending or market orders. Prices may move due to the placement of these orders. What this means is that current value (i.e the spot rate) changes when there is a consumption of liquidity at a particular price level. Why is this important? What is occurring with any price movement is that either the longs have exceeded the liquidity of the shorts at the price if there is an increase (in a very simplified world, 10 units bought at 1.000 of X/Y currency when there are only 5 shorts at 1.000 will move price up) and vice versa for if price moves down. Have you ever asked why you get stopped out? 'Stop hunting' is a legitimate way in which large players move the markets in order to generate liquidity. They do this to place orders with minimal slippage. The big players are not trading with small lots like retail traders. They are moving a huge amount of volume, so if they were to place a large order with limited liquidity, their order would not be able to be filled (remember above, markets move due to an imbalance in liquidity or in simpler terms, demand exceeding supply or vice versa). Therefore, by moving price towards areas of pending orders, they are able to place their large trades with limited slippage and get the best price. They know that they can take out weak longs or weak shorts (which I will explain in the following example) in order to accomplish this. When you can identify where the bigger players want price to go to be able to place these orders, it is possible to piggyback on the coat tails of these moves. Example Note the area identified furthest to the left with the arrow. We see a period of consolidation following quite a bullish move. Sellers have entered here causing the up and down moves (the bulls are fighting the bears). It could be deduced that the sentiment here is bullish due to strong previous up moves and a weak Yen. Weak longs would have been entered following the bullish candle on the left most side of the box with stops evidently where weak resistance had turned to support from the two candles prior to the bullish move, indicated by the red line. As the big players understand that there will be long positions here, they can identify where many stops and buy orders may be placed (previous resistance turned support - other examples for where stops could be placed may be at a Fib level or Moving Average etc). Note the green box and more importantly the wick downwards. This is price being driven down to capture pending orders and stops. Once these orders have been captured, there is a liquidity vacuum. The big players now place their long positions now that they have entered a price where there is heightened liquidity. As there are now very few opposing short orders after the stop hunt, price moves very quickly upwards. If you look at the highlighted areas, you can notice this occurring again and again, however, not necessarily always due to a stop hunt. This piece is written to provide you with something to think about as opposed to how you can use it. Deduce what you can from it and explore the way in which it can benefit :) If you have any questions or suggestions, feel free to contact me here or email me at david.belle@admiralmarkets.com Note: this is the first educational post. We would appreciate feedback on this whether it is good or bad, helpful or absolutely useless. Form your own opinions. This is not to be interpreted as investment advice. Trading leveraged products carries a potentially high level of risk. Losses may exceed deposits.
by DavidBelleFX
13
INTC Death CrossThe last time INTC's chart performed the death cross it traded from 26.60 to 19.30 in a short period, well it has happened again. Right now we are trading at 30.79 but the pressure is mounting as institutional selling has begun. This to me looks like a great short , at least until earnings in April. INTC's forward looking guidance has the stocks estimate at .42c which is down from last quarters earnings at .74c. With lack of mobile presence and technical chart issues this stock could soon be trading at 26.00.
NASDAQ:INTCShort
by scottydinamite
AAPL in front of earningsRecent news: * Deal with IBM * Split 1:7 * Presentation of new iOS 8 * Acquisition of Beats for $2.6 bln + 400 millions of shares Tendencies and perspectives: * Smartphones with big screen threaten sales of iPad * market share of tablets reduced according to research * Smart home, Apple Smart-TV, Touch ID, iWatch - these are innovations that investors expect from Apple * iPhone 6 with sapphire glasse? * Rumors: Apple can acquire Tesla What to expect: * EPS expectations $1.23 vs $1.07 yoy * iPhones + iPads = 3/4 of profit * Analysts upgrades (Barclays, UBS, JMP: $110, $115, $135 respectively) * Comments of upper management and Tim Cook on Conference Call about new products coul be catalyst * I think, numbers will meet expectations How to trade: * Hold Call options in front of earnings. I like this idea because it has well defined risk-premium and you wont be caught with gap down. * Long above $97 resistance * Long if drop down to support $89.65-$90.00 * Gap up and cover (Buy on rumors, sell on news) * Open below $92.50-$93.00 - short to bigger support
NASDAQ:AAPL
by andrew.berg
3