$GBPJPY Macro analysis Part 1: Bullish Outlook-Target of 250.234OANDA:GBPJPY Long-Term Macro Analysis Part 1: Bullish Outlook with Target of 250.234
My HTF target is 250.234
The weekly and monthly timeframes are trending bullish. A closure above 215.887 is crucial, signaling a potential move back to the 241.501 area. If price reaches this zone, I expect price to trade away before violating the 250.234 high, based on my analysis.
These drawings are somewhat beyond my current knowledge. It's important to follow price action on the LTF as it approaches HTF POIs; price will indicate when a reversal is imminent.
Focus on my key areas of targets, rejections, or closures rather than my drawings.
Also the 177.314 area could also be a little juicy.
Based on my current understanding, I see two potential price movements. This is speculative since price is still trending up and hasn’t broken any significant levels to indicate a downward move. Also any future incoming downward movement would likely be a temporary pullback before continuing higher in line with the HTF trend. Price may follow either the white or purple drawing, which will play out over the coming years.
I will update my analysis as my skills evolve. This analysis will be valid if we close above 215.887 with a body closure on the HTF weekly/monthly chart. The yellow square is not a valid swing yet, reinforcing the need to follow price rather than relying solely on forecasts. Price will signal when it’s ready to move higher or lower—this is part 1 of my HTF outlook.
Quick personal quote regarding price action:
When it comes to trading, let price lead the way. It will reveal when to short or continue higher. Your emotions are irrelevant in this technical dance.
Let price guide your decisions.
Not financial advice, just posting my idea's for archival purposes to look back at later.
Technicalscience
High probable Sell ConditionsAs the DXY kept dropping lower, Stock Indices such as the Dow and the SPXUSD kept rallying higher as expected. From my weekly forecast I expect the DXY to rally once more taking out the current swing high on the overall daily timeframe, and as expected, Both US30 and the SPXUSD indicating bearish confluence factors (such as bearish cracks in correlation, Bearish turtle soup conditions). Therefore, for the upcoming weeks we're most likely going to trade to that 3491.3 level. This is the highest probable scenario amoung others (because there's always more than one possible outcome).
High probable Sell ConditinsFrom the market failing to push higher yesterday (instead it dropped lower and made a bearish shift in market structure), we can conclude that for the remaining days of the trading week we can expect further movement lower. Reason being, price wants to take out those relative equal lows (retail traders support level) at 31683.7 before reversing and continuing to expand higher for the rest of the month.