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NASDAQ delivered as expected, and continues...Previously heads up , The short week filled in as expected with a continued breakdown below the weekly 55EMA. This is bearish confirmation (without doubt) that the technical bounce is done. On the weekly basis, a higher low or a return to 13K is in the cards for the weeks following. The daily charts show the weak rally and the week ended with an overwhelming outcome, in the form of a "bearish engulfing"; not quite so as it did not totally engulf from the open, nonetheless, you can obviously see the bearishness. The first support to bounce is not expected to hold, and perhaps the second support would hold better. Failing which, 13K is the support to look towards. Daily technicals are in bearish territory, so expect some downside after the Easter weekend. At this point, it is not (yet) looking extremely bearish. Not yet. Stay safe!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
2
NASDAQ... Oh BearThe NASDAQ is in somewhat of a freefall state having broke down very quickly over last week and one day this week. The breakdown came after warnings with upper tails in the weekly candle, as previously warned. And then the breakdown of the weekly 55EMA. The daily chart shows the clear indications as well as long decisive bearish candles clice through the supports. 13775 (red support line) is the immediate, albeit weak, support. 13520 (gray line) probably a better bounce support. Daily technicals (MACD and RPM) are bearish. It is only 12 April... not even 10 May.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
Can Mega Cap Growth Make A Comeback?One of the most important, yet consistently underappreciated, aspects of technical analysis is the concept of relative strength. As a portfolio manager, one must be held accountable to some type of benchmark. And thus, if we want to outperform said benchmark, we most own things that are outperforming the benchmark! Participating in trends and capturing profitable trades is the goal that every trader and investor envisions when they enter a position. And of course, this is what indeed what we want in the end...profits. But those profits need to be greater than your benchmark, or else, what is the point? This is a concept that we at Adaptiv are constantly applying across any stock (or asset) when considering it for a position for clients. We are always looking to be involved in the strongest areas of the market. If we know that major indices, for all intents and purposes, are just the average return of a basket of stocks, then we also know that some stocks must be doing better than the average and some must be doing worse. It seems like common sense to participate in the stocks and trends that are indeed stronger than the average stock, or in our case, the benchmark. Sometimes the rotation between leading areas happens slowly as strength can stay within certain sectors and sub-industries for many months or even years. In other environments, the rotation can be quick and less-sticky, much like we saw in 2021. While we as market participants do not get to choose the pace of rotation, it is still a practice that must be constantly applied, in order to consistently create alpha. One area that is very important to the broad market is the Growth/Tech theme, and more specifically the largest capitalized stocks within that area. We know that these stocks have a very large influence on the market as a whole. When they are leading, the market usually finds itself in an easier uptrend, like we saw more recently in 2017, the first half of 2018, and 2020, following the 'Covid lows'. The relative relationship between these mega cap stocks and the S&P 500, as mentioned above, has been trendless for nearly two years. And over the last twelve-plus months, I think it's fair to say the 'average' stock has been quite a mess. And the lack of trending leadership from these important stocks certainly hasn't helped. But could a turn around be under way? We recently saw a failed breakdown (black line) in this relationship, following a well-anticipated bullish RSI divergence (not pictured). As any well-studied technician knows, the old adage "from failed moves come fast moves" can be a very important one. Given this new information, we should not be surprised if Mega Cap Growth stocks substantially outperforming in the coming weeks, What about the most important names within this area? What stocks could we look at for clues as to where the broader relationship could potentially go? I think Apple gives a great insight as to what other large Growth names could do on a relative basis over the short- to intermediate-term. And it just so happens that the relationship between Apple and the S&P 500 is currently sitting at a very important inflection point. Should this ratio break higher (above the purple line), I think it bodes well for Apple's peer group as well. Lastly, we know that a big chunk of the Mega Cap Growth arena consists of Tech stocks. Almost 40% to be exact. So, we would also want to look at this sector as well for any information that this theme, and thus stocks similar to Apple, are indeed moving into a period of outperformance. Similar to the first two relationships, this one has also been range bound for many, many months. However, broad Tech seems to have a little bit more short-term resistance than Mega Cap Growth. In order to increase the confidence of alpha generation from this area, I think technicians want to see this relationship rise above the blue line. If we can get all three of these relationship to confirm new relative uptrends in the coming weeks/months, I think that bodes very well not just for this subset of names, but the market as a whole. Ian McMillan, CMT Adaptiv Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
AMEX:MGK
by CMT_Association
20
Long - Looks like a very strong upside candidate 1 Price above VWAP, 200D, 100D and 50D SMA: Yes 2 100D SMA > 200D SMA: Yes 3 50D SMA > 100D SMA: Yes 4 200 SMA trending up: Yes 5 100 SMA trending up: Yes 6 50 SMA trending up: Yes 7 RSI > 70: Yes 8 Clear past: no resistance Yes 9 Above 52WH: Yes 10 Recent high volumes: Yes 11 Increasing Revenue: Yes 12 Expanding Margins: Yes 13 Sector Outlook: Positive 14 Pattern: Huge cup and handle 15 Held well since beg. of Jan 2022: Yes 16 Market Position: Leader in inflight internet in NA 17 Entry Target: $16-$17 18 Stop Loss: $14
NASDAQ:GOGOLong
by EWTrading12345abc
1
Razer: A Current 57% Discount to FVRazer is riding this long-term channel nicely. Hopefully, we can break through the current pennant and head back towards the top. The recent annual earnings report has reassured my confidence in Razer's long-term growth. ~ They reported 25-45% growth in each portion of Razer's gaming ecosystem in FY2021: software, hardware, and monetization/payments. ~ GPM expansion led by higher margins within the hardware business, showing that demand is steady even with price increases. Higher margins = more earnings left over for shareholders and business augmentation. ~ The PV of cash flow estimates for the next ten years and terminal value has increased since Razer released their FY 2021 earnings, raising the FV to $0.74/share and offering a ~57% discount when observing the current price. Only time will tell if this valuation calculation is justified.
RLong
by ClargyInvesting
Tencent .. my ten cents worth on it sharedQuick note... a good friend asked me about Tencent. Given the developments recently, as well as over the past year. There was some regret in not buying during the dip, but it was about risk management in catching a falling knife IMHO. Missing the boat is also another feeling, and it is perhaps something dangerous to feel when looking at charts. So, this is called planning the trade... and in doing so, we might expect a dip in the week of April 25 at about 320-350. IF it does play out to that, we can expect a bottoming pattern to form, and then start looking to go shopping. Not before. Here we are planning the shopping trip. For now, it remains as a plan. Wait for it... For you, my friend... just so we go live on what we spoke about.
HKEX:700
by Auguraltrader
NQ/MNQ Breakout or Breakdown?Bulls have had a nice and surprising push after fomc to the upside this week. Will be watching if price respects the DT line and will consider this an uptrend day in a bear market instead of an official uptrend reversal period until DT line is broken and value created above. I like longs above 500 as there is plenty of space for bulls to prop this up above there and short below 340, however, closed the day in key supply zone. Currently also sitting at 61% fib and will see if it can create value above 61% and push to 50% or reject below 61% going into next week. No bias, following the price/momentum and playing what the market gives us going into next week. With fomc, recent geo-political events and simply no news for this run-up, next week will should bring more volatility as well.
CME_MINI:MNQM2022
by Pham777
NASDAQ to break 13KJust an update that a few technical and correlation points suggest that the NSDAQ is likely to break down below 13K. First up, the breakdown from the consolidation zone was very strong with a gap down and runaway to form a long down candle. No lightening of momentum observed yet. Next, there appears to be a potential for crude oil price spike. In order for such a spike to occur, there must be a significant event expected to occur. Such an occurrence would also push the NASDAQ down below 13K. Noted that the lower Bollinger Band is also near 13K, so that may mitigate the downside... hopefully. Yesterday's close in the white rectangle box was indicative of downside momentum, and can expect some follow through. The yellow box is the projected extended downside expectation; which brings the possibility as low as 11,880. This is IF support breaks and close below 13K. 12,780 next immediate support below 13K.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
Microanalysis of the NASDAQ 4HIn a follow up analysis of the recent favourite, the NASDAQ futures NQ1!, it appears that a possible higher low above 13K has been registered and it is now consolidating below 13,360 (yellow line). Any effort above has been met with swift downdrafts (red ellipse marking the upper tails). If this continues, a breakdown below 13K is expected, and currently is expected to 12,800 target. Alternatively, a 4H close above the yellow line would signal a breakout of the consolidation zone, and affirmation of a higher low near 13K support. Technically, 60/40 skewed towards the bears. Is this the calm before the storm? Asian into European opening hours would be interesting...
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
18
APPLE can hit $185.00 in 3 months. 1D MA200 in focus.I haven't made an analysis publicly on Apple since my September 14 2021 idea: It was when I first made public of the long-term Channel Up it was trading in and warned about a correction towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the stocks major Support since the COVID crash of March 2020. Eventually the pattern proved to be a success, as the price corrected and then upon testing the 1D CCI Support Zone, it rebounded above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension target. Right now AAPL has been correcting since January 04 High. On February 24 it almost hit the 1D MA200 again as well as the CCI Buy level, but the rebound was rejected near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and now is again near the MA200. We can see even in corrections, that the CCI Buy Zone can give short-term buy entries. The key here is for the price to break above the 1D MA50, as in previous corrections that was the start of the new uptrend. The 1D MA50/ MA100 (green trend-line) bearish cross, hasn't affected the uptrend's chances before, in fact when it happened the price was already in rise mode. It appears that the next 1D MA200 contact would be the next long-term Buy Signal for Apple, unless of course the 1D MA50 breaks first. Either way, the CCI has already give a Buy Signal, and for more than 1.5 year, it has been 100% accurate. The 2.0 Fibonacci extension based on the last low is just over $185.00 and that is our long-term target on AAPL. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by TradingShot
8
XLK Technology ETF - Trend Lines compared to Dot Com CrashA look at how the counter rallies in the dot com crash compare to the market since 2003. The dark red lines all have the same slope on the log scale. I just moved them to align to the peaks. You can also see that last week caused the price to break down out of the trading channel started in 2019 and then a retest Friday. This morning we are hovering under it. It is not looking too good for tech since it has both to recapture the channel and break back above the trend line anchored to Jan 2001 peak. Crossing fingers. 1W 1D Rejected off both the 20 and 200 day moving averages.
AMEX:XLK
by Dr_Roboto
NASDAQ down to retest Sept 2020 peak or rally to 15,000+NASDAQ is setting up to make big move up or down. This morning saw a retest of the main trading channel since 2016. If it holds, then this will be a higher low and look for a rally to 15,000 to 15,300 levels. This would be the best bull case with a low but possible change to get back to ATHs. If it breaks down, then we could retest 13,200 level and then rally, but more likely we could drop down to test Sept 2020 peak. Another stong support trend line meets up with the Sept 2020 peak in that range, which would be a great chance for a rally. However, that would put the NASADQ back in the 2016 channel and the likelyhood of seeing ATH again are very low.
U
by Dr_Roboto
5