AUDIUS #AUDIO Sounds GoodMusic app / Crypto
Artisits taking contol off their musicl
with social messaging
WE DON'T Know what the future of crypto will be
but tipping on twitter
payments for digital content
micropayments , Only fans kind of platforms seems inevitable at one point .
Apps which hide the blockchain for everyday users have still to be properly developed
But they are coming probably by the end of the decade.
But for this cycle
Audio should be a great Bull market speculation vehicle for us again.
Technology
QQQ bounce right back to resistanceExtremely bullish 2 weeks after that crazy low last Monday morning. You can see that QQQ tagged resistance yesterday and sold off today. Market is feeling bullish, but my gut tells me that this is a dead cat bounce. Hard to know for sure. The rally has been almost abnormally strong, and if you look back to early 2022 you saw the same thing. Big sell off with ridiculously strong rallies, but ultimately the market kept going down. Now, I obviously don't know that for sure. The advice I got the other day was "stocks only go up" as he bought a bunch of TQQQ and made a nice profit the last 2 weeks. So, maybe it pays to always be bullish.
Anyhow, I'll just keep doodling on my charts and sharing with the hope that it helps someone.
OPRA Analysis 8/20Disclosure: As of 8/20 I am long Opera Limited NYSE: OPRA
Opera is a browser company available on Mac, PC, and Mobile. They earn revenue through advertisements, as well as a search partnership with Google.
*This partnership with Google is a key risk for Opera as if the relationship falls apart they will lose a large portion of their revenue*
As a customer of Opera I can say they have a quality product and is well reviewed by the people I know who use it. Most of their user growth is organic. And with only 8% of the market going to Opera there is large room for growth.
Looking at the qualitative factors they have $0 debt, revenue has grown since their IPO in 2019 with a dip in 2021 that quickly recovered. Over this time period they have seen stable margins and a growing book value.
The valuation of this company is the main reason I am looking at it. With the price/book being 1.25 and the book value increasing there is limited downside to this company. The earnings+dividend yield is 21% which is a rough estimate of what your investment could return off of the current earnings. Please note that this does not include growth, so potential returns could be higher or lower.
Of course all investment decisions must be evaluated on their own merit of risk/reward and what factors you value. As always this is not financial advice, and read the annual reports and financial information prior to making any decisions.
Have a great day everyone!
MICROSOFT Targeting $500 before the end of the year.Microsoft (MSFT) has made a new long-term bottom and recovered almost all of August's losses. That bottom is technically the Higher Low of the 20-month Channel Up that started in January 2023.
The price is currently consolidating below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and if broken, it will confirm the new Bullish Leg. In the previous (2) Bullish Legs of this Channel Up, the price tends to re-test the 1D MA50/100 cluster to confirm it as the new long-term Support after the break-out, so expect that to take place at some point.
Having though formed a new 1D MACD Bullish Cross, we can assume that this is already a safe level to buy for the long-term, as every Bullish Cross below 0.0 has technically been a confirmed buy level. Our Target for the end of the year is $500, which is still technically a 'modest' one as it is considerably below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which priced the March Higher High.
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Can Palo Alto Networks Sustain Its Cybersecurity Dominance?Palo Alto Networks has cemented its status as a cornerstone in the cybersecurity industry with a stellar Q4 performance. Their ability to not only meet but exceed expectations, coupled with a strategic pivot towards platformization, positions the company at the forefront of a rapidly evolving landscape.
The company's financial results are a testament to its operational efficiency and strategic acumen. The impressive growth in Next-Generation Security ARR underscores the market's confidence in Palo Alto Networks' ability to deliver innovative and effective security solutions. This, combined with the company's strong balance sheet and cash flow generation, provides a solid foundation for future growth.
However, the cybersecurity arena is characterized by constant evolution, with emerging threats and technological advancements demanding continuous adaptation. Palo Alto Networks will need to maintain its focus on research and development, while also expanding its market reach to sustain its leadership position. The company's success in navigating these challenges will be crucial in determining its long-term trajectory.
Investors will be keen to monitor Palo Alto Networks' ability to execute its platformization strategy and expand its customer base. Additionally, the company's financial performance against the backdrop of a potentially slowing economy will be a key indicator of its resilience.
Ultimately, Palo Alto Networks' capacity to innovate, adapt, and deliver exceptional value to its customers will be instrumental in shaping its future success.
Is Intel's New Process Node a Game-Changer?Intel's latest reveal, the Intel 3 process node, promises to revolutionize the tech landscape with substantial performance and efficiency gains. But could this be the strategic breakthrough Intel needs to outmaneuver its competition?
Enhanced Performance and Density for Leading-Edge Computing
Intel's commitment to process technology leadership leaps forward with the Intel 3 process node, boasting an impressive 18% performance improvement and a 10% density increase over the previous generation. Tailored to meet diverse customer needs, Intel 3 offers four distinct variants, each optimized for specific applications, from high-performance computing to AI.
First Leading-Edge Foundry Node Drives Ecosystem Growth
Intel 3 marks a pivotal shift in Intel's strategy, as its first leading-edge process technology is made available to external customers through Foundry services. This move positions Intel as a key player in the foundry market, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape.
Manufacturing Readiness and High-Volume Production
Achieving manufacturing readiness in late 2023, the Intel 3 node has successfully transitioned to high-volume production, powering the Intel Xeon 6 processor family. This real-world application demonstrates its capability in server-grade computing solutions, solidifying Intel's technological prowess.
A Stepping Stone to the Future of Computing
As the final evolution of Intel's FinFET technology, the Intel 3 node provides a robust foundation for future advancements, paving the way for the forthcoming RibbonFET technology and the Angstrom era with Intel 20A and 18A process nodes.
Curious to know more about how Intel's latest innovation could impact the future of computing? Dive into the full analysis and uncover the potential ripple effects on the semiconductor industry.
Cisco's Next Chapter Overcoming Challenges Seizing OpportunitiesCisco Systems Inc., a global leader in networking and IT solutions, is undergoing a significant restructuring to navigate the challenging economic landscape and pivot towards higher-growth segments. The company recently announced a major layoff affecting 7% of its global workforce, signaling a shift in strategy.
Financial Performance:
Despite a 10% year-over-year revenue decline to $13.6 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter, Cisco exceeded analyst expectations. Earnings per share (EPS) dipped by 44% to $0.54, but the figures were better than projected, offering some relief to investors.
Strategic Shift:
Cisco’s acquisition of Splunk in March has strengthened its position in the cybersecurity market. The company is focusing on software and security solutions, aiming for higher recurring revenue and reduced reliance on traditional hardware. Cisco's investments in AI and automation are key to its future growth.
Market Reaction:
The market reacted positively to Cisco’s earnings announcement and restructuring plan, with the stock surging in after-hours trading. Investors are optimistic about Cisco's ability to address current challenges and position itself for future success.
5G Ecosystem Role:
Cisco is playing a crucial role in the 5G ecosystem. The company’s strategy includes:
[
Core Network Transformation: Solutions for building and operating 5G core networks.
RAN Solutions: Collaborations with vendors to provide orchestration and automation platforms.
Edge Computing: Investments to enable low-latency applications.
Security: Robust solutions to protect against cyber threats.
Challenges and Opportunities:
The 5G market offers significant opportunities but also poses challenges such as intense competition, complex deployments, and proving ROI to service providers. Cisco's focus on end-to-end solutions, partnerships, and R&D investments is critical to staying ahead.
Conclusion:
Cisco's future hinges on a balancing act between cost-cutting and innovation. The company's ability to adapt to industry shifts, including the rise of 5G and AI, while managing economic and supply chain challenges, will be crucial for long-term success.
D-Wave Quantum Inc. Expands US Footprint, Boosts Defense TiesD-Wave Quantum Inc. has strategically expanded its US operations by deploying a second Advantage quantum computer at **Davidson Technologies**' Huntsville headquarters. This strategic move reinforces the company's commitment to the US defense sector and positions it as a pivotal player in developing quantum computing solutions for critical national security missions.
The collaboration between D-Wave and Davidson Technologies marks a significant milestone in the quantum computing industry. By combining D-Wave's quantum computing expertise with Davidson's deep-rooted experience in aerospace and missile defense, the partnership aims to accelerate the development of quantum-powered solutions for the US government. The establishment of a secure environment for quantum computing operations at Davidson's facility is a critical step in unlocking the full potential of this transformative technology.
D-Wave's decision to expand its US footprint underscores the company's confidence in the growing demand for quantum computing solutions within the defense sector. As the global race for quantum supremacy intensifies, D-Wave's strategic positioning in the US market places it at a competitive advantage. The deployment of the second Advantage quantum computer is expected to attract further investment and foster collaboration within the quantum computing ecosystem.
By aligning itself closely with the US defense sector, D-Wave is positioning itself as a key contributor to the nation's technological advancement and national security. As quantum computing technology matures, the company's role in shaping the future of defense and intelligence is likely to become increasingly prominent.
NVDIA Is this -35% correction enough to be a buy opportunity?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) completed a -35% decline from its top on Monday's Low and after a short rebound, it's consolidating. Even though this is the strongest correction it had since the late 2022 market bottom and it almost touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up that started in October 2022, there might be room for some more downside before the next long-term Bullish Leg.
It is important also to note that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is still intact as the 20-month Support and the 1D RSI broke the 35.00 level (almost oversold) on Monday. All the above suggest that NVDIA hit a new long-term buy level/ Support.
The Bullish Divergence though on its 1D RSI (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows) may indicate the opposite than it normally does. The reason is purely on NVDIA's last such pattern, which basically led to the October 13 2022 bottom.
As you can see, that correction continued the price's Lower Lows despite the ongoing RSI Higher Lows, until it completed a -44% correction. That suggest that there might be room for another -9% decline before the stock breaks above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and starts the new Bullish Leg for good. Of course if it breaks above it earlier, then this pattern projection is invalidated.
As a result, it is recommended to buy the current bottom so that we won't miss on a potential upside by breaking above the 1D MA50 earlier but at the same time reserve some cash for the possibility of a -44% decline around the $80.00 level. In both cases, we will set a $190.00 Target (horizon before end 2024), which is a 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the current bottom.
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QQQ back in long term channel. What's next?After spending about a month above the long term blue channel since 2009 (excludes COVID bubble), QQQ is back inside the blue channel. You can see the gap up on June 12th and gap back down on July 24th. The black channel goes all the back to 2008 and the bottom of the market and includes the COVID bubble. The black mid-channel is currently acting as support. The AI rally starting in Jan 2023 has been confined to the purple channel. I see a couple of options for the next week or two. First, we could see a rally to test resistance of the purple channel. It is possible that we jump back above and the AI rally continues, but that fells unlikely. Second, it seems to me a bigger correction could be in store to break the purple channel support down to the red trend line. The core batch of tech earnings is up the next week or so, and that is going to have a lot to do with the direction.
Weekly
APPLE Dont get fooled by the short-term pull-back. $280 on trackExactly 3 months ago (May 02, see chart below), we called for a strong buy signal on Apple (AAPL) and it dully delivered as 2 days ago the stock completed three straight green months with a new All Time High (ATH):
The recent weekly pull-back shouldn't allow you to diverge from the bigger picture and on this analysis we look at it from a 1M time-frame perspective. As you can see, as long as the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) holds, Apple will continue to be on a 15-year uptrend, which shows very distinct Phases.
Right now we are on the Channel Up that followed the 2022 Inflation Crisis, which was a similar correction to 2015 - 2016 (China's slowdown). The Channel Up that followed peaked at +161% before the next correction towards the 1M MA50. Even the 2013 - 2014 rise was still +145%.
As a result, we don't believe the current Channel Up to be over either, expecting a peak closer to 300. Our Target is marginally below it at $280.00.
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QQQ --- AI Tech Bubble Keeps GrowingRight now, not much seems to be stopping the bubble in Tech. You can see we broke above resistance on June 11th and have not looked back. I was expecting some form of test of support, like back in July 2020, but instead any pullback has been bought up. Volume is low and that means that everyone is long to go along for the ride. If we get a run up like back in August 2020, we could top out at the $550 range.
We are in the region of extra hard to predict what will happen next. Without a clear reason to sell, this can keep going. I would expect to see some form of profit taking that could make for a bigger pullback, but so far nothing. I think the saying "The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent" comes to mind.
I am curious if we are in for a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" when it comes to interest rate cuts. Maybe this will keep going up until we actually get a rate cut.
1D
SMCI You won't be able to catch this rally after it starts.Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has so far followed to near perfection our last long-term analysis (May 13, see chart below) where we called for a prolonged accumulation (red Rectangle) of at least another 2-months before the real cyclical rally started:
We called then that 'patience will be rewarded' and the stock is finally close to rewarding your patience on the long-term. As you can see, every time in the past 18 months that the stock formed an Accumulation Phase this long, it then posted an incredible rally of +417%.
Throughout this process, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) always remained intact and supported. The rally started when the 1D MA200 got to its closest with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the exact situation we're at right now.
As a result, we expect the parabolic rally to start any day now and as the title says, once it starts it will be difficult to catch. Typically entries within the Accumulation Phase should be done while it lasts. Our long-term Target is intact at $3500 (exactly +417% from the recent Low).
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NICE Ltd: Seeking Value While Riding The AI WaveKey Rationale:
Profitable technology firm with a track record of commercializing AI. World leader in two industries primed for significant growth, with a comprehensive suite of products and a treasure trove of historical data for AI training. Solid Growth profile and five-star valuation make it an ideal GARP investment.
Company Profile:
A tech powerhouse that’s quietly revolutionizing customer engagement and financial crime solutions. NICE Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud platforms for AI-driven digital business solutions worldwide. Nice is an enterprise software company that serves the customer engagement and financial crime and compliance markets. The company provides data analytics-based solutions through both a cloud platform and on-premises infrastructure. Within customer engagement, Nice's CXone platform delivers solutions focused on contact center software and workforce engagement management, or WEM. Contact center offerings include solutions for digital self-service, customer journey and experience optimization, and compliance. WEM products optimize call center efficiency, leveraging data and AI analytics for call volume forecasting and agent scheduling. Within financial crime and compliance, Nice offers risk and investigation management, fraud prevention, anti-money laundering, and compliance solutions. NICE Ltd. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Ra'anana, Israel.
Comments:
One of the best available Ex-U.S. stocks.
Narrow Moat, Exemplary Capital Allocation.
NICE’s long-term vision aligns with the AI revolution.
Recently beat on top-line and bottom-line estimates.
Recently announced a New $500 Million Share Buyback Plan.
5-Star Valuation on Morningstar, NICE is trading at a 36% discount.
Incessant selling is unwarranted and partially due to a CEO transition.
Multiple industry analysts rank NICE as a major player with the best technology.
Cloud Company with actual Profitable Growth, making NICE an intelligent investment in AI.
Publicly traded since 1996, NICE is not some hot new flash-in-the-pan AI IPO, it's got staying power.
CXone Mpower is the Ultimate CX-Aware AI Offering, Providing Continuous, Memory-Driven Human and AI Collaboration.
They are developing a moat around their AI offering due to the sheer scale of the number of transactions they perform each month.
Nice has strong user retention metrics, and cloud growth means greater recurring revenue.
Cincinnati Emergency Communication Center Leverages NICE to Improve Operations.
Italy’s Police Deploy NICE Inform at All Control Rooms Nationwide for Incident Intelligence.
Named the Leader In 2024 IDC MarketScape for Contact Center as a Service Report.
Named the Conversational Intelligence Market Leader in 2024 Opus Research Intelliview Report.
Recognized as Category Leader in the Chartis 2024 CLM Solutions for Corporate and Investment Banking Vendor Landscape Report
Proprietary Scores:
GreenBlue Cumulative Rank: 196/2982 (Lower = Better)
GreenBlue Current Rank: 509/2982 (Lower = Better)
GreenRed Current Rank: 348/499 (Lower = Better)
Gurufocus Score: 95/100 (Higher = Better)
Stellar Profitability, Growth, and Quality scores for a foreign company in GreenBlue (138, 488, and 233 out of 2982)
Competitors:
CRM, INTU, NOW, CDNS, SHOP, ROP, ADSK, DOCU, GWRE, TWLO, FIVN, RNG
Risks:
Foreign companies have embedded geopolitical risk.
Larger AI competitors eat their lunch. Microsoft's push into the contact center will increase competition.
Nice is undergoing a cloud transition, and the timing of legacy customer migration and degree of success on this front remains to be seen.
Prior personal investments in software application companies have been very risky. Failed investments include FIVN, RNG, and TWLO.
TESLA Buy the dip, correction nearly over. $285 next short-term.Tesla (TSLA) is bleeding hard today but that shouldn't if you got on that rally early like our June 13 (see chart below) buy signal suggested while the price was still trading in the low 180s:
Our long-term Target remains $400.00 and today's sharp correction is nothing but a strong technical buy opportunity. In fact, this pull-back is not stranger to Tesla. The stock has seen a similar rejection near the 2.0 Fibonacci extension during its May - July 2023 rally on the June 21 2023 High.
As you can see, the price declined by -13.00% back to the 1.382 Fibonacci level. At the time of the (temporary High), the 1D RSI was at 89.00, roughly where it got rejected today. The price recovered when the RSI was at 57.00.
As a result, from a R/R perspective, it is worth taking another buy on the current market price and target the 2.236 Fib extension (similar to the JUly 19 2023 High) at $285.00.
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AMD a great stock to have in your portfolio to the end of yearLast time we looked at the Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), we made a short-term call (June 20, see chart below) at the bottom of the Bull Flag, with the price responding flawlessly, and is currently on its way for a Higher High on our $190.0 Target:
Before that, it was on May 15 (see chart below) where we called for a buy exactly at the bottom of the cyclical correction/ Bearish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up:
Just a quick reminder, it was back in March when we waved the strongest 1W sell signal on AMD and it surgically delivered (chart below):
In any event, back to today, the price has just broken above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and established the last two trading sessions there. With the 1D RSI approaching the 70.00 overboughr barrier, we are on the exact same level that AMD was during both previous Bullish Legs (circle).
This suggests that we are only at the very start of the new Bullish Leg and based on the Sine Waves, it should start peaking end of December - start of January 2025. We are moving our long-term Target higher to $320.00.
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As you see, we couldn't have gotten a more efficient long-term buy entry than that and the stock has basically confirmed the start of the new uptrend/ Bullish Leg
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ROCKET LAB 1st 1D Golden Cross in 1 year!Rocket Lab (RKLB) is up heavily following our last buy call (May 29, see chart below) and is approaching our $5.50 short-term Target:
Since however the Lower Highs trend-line is now a bit lower and the medium-term pattern since April's bottom emerged as a Channel Up (dotted), we lower this short-term Target to $5.35.
The key development of the week though is none other than the formation (today) of the 1st Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame in 1 year (since June 20th 2023). As a result, we don't expect the rally to stop there but instead to accelerate tiwards the 2-year Higher Highs trend-line. This is a seasonal rally that RKLB has done in the past two years during July-August. Our long-term Target is 8.75.
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AI Bubble grows above resistance for QQQThe gap up and follow through today shows a clear break above the 2010 trading channel that has provide resistance so far. I see a pattern very close to that of July 6, 2020. The is not confirmation yet that price is out of the channel and that resistance has become support, but for the bulls this is a very good start. I would expect the bulls to try and run with it now that price is above the channel. I will also be watching for a pullback to test for support in the near future. If that can hold, the AI bubble may get really pumped. We can never know what will spook the market, but right now it feels like the sky is the limit.
Today
July 6, 2020
GAMESTOP Can it repeat the crazy run of 2020/21?GameStop Corporation (GME) has been consolidating during the past 2 weeks and lately have found support exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Early in May it gave the first signs of breaking above its recent 3-year Bear Cycle. The rise was almost as strong (+520%) as the one that made a temporary high on October 22 2020.
Both formed a 1D Golden Cross. The main support of 2020/2021 was the 1D MA50, so technically as long as it holds (even a marginal break would be ok), the probabilities for a new High remain alive.
Practically the sequence that led to the recent bottom is quite similar to 2019/20. If history keeps repeating itself then we could be looking at a +18630% from the bottom, which price-wise is translated to $1800.
The times are of course different and GME's whole move was based on the 'meme' retail investors crusade against the big hedge funds that were shorting the price. Also those were post-pandemic times with very low interest rates and cheap money that could easily be diverted to extremely risky assets such as GME. Volumes were more easy to be achieved.
Do you think history will be repeated?
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NVDIA Not the time to buy yet.NVDIA corporation (NVDA) is on the 3rd straight week of losses following the mid-June High, which was a Higher High at the top of the 20-month Channel Up. During that time the stock turns into a Buy only after it breaks below its 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
As you can see some times the bottom process takes longer, other times it is very short. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) hasn't been broken since mid-January 2023. At the moment, the stock has started the new Bearish Leg. Past such Legs extended to at least -22.56% and with a maximum -26.18%.
We are ready to buy at $110.00 and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $170.00 (each Higher High is on a Fibonacci extension lower).
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ELI LILLY Entering consolidation phase. Wait for the buy signal.Last time we looked at Eli Lilly (LLY) was on March 18 (see chart below) and we got the most out of it as we entered after a 1D MA50 correction and got the most optimal value:
Our original target was $1050 calculated according to the % rise of each previous Bullish Leg (+45%) of the +1 year Channel Up but now it appears that the stock won't hit that level during this Leg as we are entering the bottom phase of the Sine Wave.
As you can see on the chart (now on the 1W time-frame), this is where LLY typically pulls-back and consolidates (red Rectangle) until the next Bullish Leg begins near the 1D MA100 (red trend-line).
As a result, we are closing our bottom buy position and turn neutral on LLY until we approach the 1D MA100 again, starting mid-August.
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MICROSOFT $450 Target hit. Potential consolidation ahead.Microsoft (MSFT) easily hit our $450.00 medium-term Target that we called on our last signal (May 01, see chart below):
That call came on the most optimal buy entry, with the price right at the bottom of the 18-month Channel Up. The symmetry between the pattern's Legs is very high and based on the previous Bullish Leg (dotted Channel Up), we should now get a medium-term consolidation to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then resume the uptrend.
The Higher High was priced just above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, our next Target is $480.
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