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BUY NVDA 9.16.2020Nvidia's 40 Billion dollar acquisition of arm could mean the new generation for machine learning and AI. The new Nvidia GeForce 30 series graphics cards announced earlier this month will be finally released on September 17 and 24th for the two higher end cards, and in the beginning of October for the budget card. Since the beginning of the pandemic, many people have turned to gaming as a form of entertainment, and PC gaming has become significantly more popular. The new Nvidia Graphics cards are an insane step in gaming, which is one of the factors that I believe will lead to the stock price going up. The new cards are also a massive jump in machine learning technology, something I specialize in. Nvidia has the best libraries and hardware for machine learning and these new cards have an insane amount of VRAM, CUDA cores, and specific architecture built for machine learning, aswell as the massive amounts of libraries and GPU support for many common machine learning libraries. I believe that within the first few weeks of people receiving their new cards and testing them, benchmarks and reports will be published on their gaming and machine learning performance and the world will be amazed. With the acquisition of arm, it seems that Nvidia is making an aggressive push towards a monopoly on machine learning technology (even though they are currently at the top with google right now). This is why I believe that in the long term (1-3 years) the stock price could very well get to $900, but more realistically I would set it at a target price of $2,000 in 2 years from now. This target price and date is partly based on Moore's Law, and the rate of development of current machine learning technology.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by peterlebiedzinski
3
HPE sentiment is changingLast week I put up a post titled "HPE sentiment may change for the better," but the post got blocked because I had a link in there that the mods felt constituted advertising. Well, HPE sentiment has begun to change for the better, as I predicted, so I think this is worth an update and repost with the offending link removed. I track metrics of both value and sentiment, and I usually only buy a stock if measures of both value and sentiment are aligned. I've noticed, though, that there's more money to be made if you can pick a stock with good value and poor sentiment that's about to improve. HPE may be a candidate for just such a positive change in sentiment. Value I've struggled with how to calculate PEG ratios post-Covid. I generally take my earnings growth rate from an approximately five-year linear regression line (three years past actuals, two years future estimates). But when you've got a black swan event right in the middle of your time series, what do you do with that? Do you use a continuous function that makes the growth rate look negative? Or do you use a piecewise function that makes it look positive? I've settled on taking the average of the two. So, keep that in mind when I tell you that I've calculated HPE's PEG ratio at 3.39 and PSG ratio at 0.36. I typically multiply the two values together to get a composite PEG*PSG ratio, in this case 1.23. Of the stocks I track, the only one with a better PEG*PSG than this is $HPQ. HPE is also trading near the bottom of its 3-year valuation range in terms of forward P/E and forward P/S. It has generally traded at about .75 forward P/S. Right now it's about .47. Implicitly, there's about 59% upside from here. Do the same calculation with forward P/E, and the numbers imply about 40% upside from here. Another thing I really like about HPE is how innovative it is. Over the last three years, HPE has averaged 50 patents granted per billion dollars of current market cap, making it more innovative for its size than any other company I watch save IBM. Throw in the fact that HPE is expected to pay 4.8% in dividends over the next 12 months, and you've got a stock that combines both shareholder returns and growth potential. That's rare. Sentiment HPE's Equity Starmine Summary Score improved from 1.6/10 to 3.7/10 in the last 24 hours, meaning that analysts are growing more positive on the stock. The upgrade caused a nice spike in the stock price today. The sentiment change comes after HPE reported 3Q results and not only beat analyst expectations on earnings and revenue, but also beat analyst expectations on 4Q guidance. Analysts sharply increased earnings estimates for the next couple years after the earnings report. Perhaps even more importantly, HPE dramatically improved its financial health from the year-ago quarter. From the conference call: "Our Q3 free cash flow of $924 million was up $276 million year over year, driven by a record cash flow from operations as a result of our improved execution this quarter. . . . We generated cash flow from operations of approximately $1.5 billion. This is the highest level for the past 11 quarters, as we improved our operational execution." The company does expect cash flow to be sequentially lower next quarter due to restructuring, but the company is still in stellar shape financially, with an $8.5 billion cash reserve. Given HPE's strong results, I expect continued analyst upgrades. And I'm not alone in thinking so; HPE now has a bullish put/call ratio of 0.51. Technicals HPE's technicals are neutral at the moment, with the stock in a triangle. A couple ways to play it would be to buy near the bottom of the triangle or wait for an upside breakout. I do think there's a good chance HPE will make an upside breakout in the coming weeks, overall market conditions permitting.
NYSE:HPELong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
4
Downside Bias on the Nasdaq too!The downside bias on the Nasdaq is greater and clearer a shown in the other indexes. Remember, that tech stocks led the markets up in a record run. Now, it appears that the reverse is also true, leading the downward pressure with commitment. Technically , the weekly candlestick pattern show a bearish engulfing, followed by a rather filled down candle, forming the three outside down pattern, and suggests more downside to follow. The MACD had crossed down supporting this view. Target of 9600 by end October with a check at about 10400.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
September 6 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Excess High; Poor Structure; $3,200 HVN. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week lower with the S&P 500 correcting nearly 7%. Recapping last week’s action, alongside bets of an economic revival backed by prolonged central bank support, the S&P 500 established an overnight all-time high, prior to correcting lower, below value, and trading responsively into the close. On up-beat manufacturing data, Tuesday’s trade built on the prior day’s positive delta, finishing higher on a late spike. Fueled by momentum in tech, Wednesday’s session opened on a gap, accepted the prior day’s spike, and placed initiative buyers firmly in control. After a brief test lower, regular trading discovered prices higher, leaving value and delta behind. At one point sellers finally entered and established excess on a spike high, suggesting the area could be resistive on subsequent tests. Indices dropped overnight, Thursday, ahead of economic releases, catching up to the prior day’s divergent delta. After an open below the prior day’s excess, participants rejected higher prices and fueled an emotional liquidation which repaired numerous sessions worth of poor structure. In Friday’s auction, participants continued the push lower before rejecting the low-volume area at $3,400 on a virgin test, and rotating back to test the supply area near $3,460. Overall, despite the speculative call-side activity in large technology names which forced dealers to hedge in the direction of the trend, prices did manage to auction high enough to attract stronger selling. Given the immense amount of poor structure created by the short-term, momentum-driven participation, it’s no wonder why the corrective action was so fierce. Whether this sell-off is nothing more than a short-term inventory correction, the presence of additional poor structure below us, coupled with a mixed fundamental picture, suggests there may be more downside in play. That said, heavily-weighted index constituents are in an uptrend, while major market indices are in a short gamma, high-volatility environment. Regardless of trend or volatility, it’s time to closely assess how far indices have come and the potential for further upside. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Fundamental: Given the market’s strength going into the U.S. presidential election, ARK Invest CEO and CIO Catherine Wood suggested the multiple structure of the market will continue rising, given the deflationary nature of innovation. bit.ly “The P/E ratio of the S&P 500, right now, is at about 26 times on this year’s earnings and about 20 to 21 on next year’s earnings. Now, we should be looking into next year -- the market is a discounting mechanism. But, to the extent a correction makes people a little more focused on the short term, they’re looking at 26 times this year, and that typically has been the top of the market.” “We’re in a deflationary world, thanks to the innovations that are sweeping through the world that are all deflationary in nature. You know the ones we talk about -- our five platforms -- DNA sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology. As they sweep through the world, there’s going to be a deflationary undercurrent, even as unit growth is very rapid. That is highly positive for P/E ratios.” Wood finished noting that investors may see multiples as high as 33 to 50 and near term corrections are a test of growth’s resilience in the new age of digital disruption and accelerated innovation. Key Events: NFIB Business Optimism Index For August; Employment Trends; Consumer Credit; JOLTS Job Openings; TR IPSOS PCSI; PPI; Wholesale Inventory, Sales; Core CPI; Real Weekly Earnings; Cleveland Fed CPI; Federal Budget. Recent News: Federal Reserve’s average inflation targeting underscores lower-for-longer rate view. bit.ly Market prefers the continuation of Trump, but Biden win wouldn’t be negative. bloom.bg Illusions, Perceptions, and Reality: Discussing Stock Splits and Index Inclusions. bit.ly What is next for markets? Investors should position for rising odds of Trump re-election. bit.ly European Securities and Markets Authority warns of prolonged period of market risk. bit.ly Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) cut Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) stake. bloom.bg Canada added 245,800 jobs in August, but the pace of gains shows signs of slowing. reut.rs Canada has big plans to use hydrogen to cut emissions and produce more oil. reut.rs Demand for jet fuel in the U.S. is recovering faster than in many other markets. bit.ly Three ways multilateral development banks can thrive after the COVID-19 pandemic. bit.ly What the Pentagon’s report on China means for U.S. strategy -- including on Taiwan. brook.gs Used car supply, demand to pressure auto lease asset-backed securities transactions. bit.ly Credit implications of higher debt to depend on persistence of shock, policy buffers. bit.ly Reduced steel quotas are credit positive for the U.S., but negative for Brazilian producers. bit.ly California bans all flavoured tobacco products, a credit negative for tobacco companies. bit.ly Vanguard will convert its prime fund, the industry’s largest, to a government fund. bit.ly Oil market’s rebalancing decelerated on slow consumption recovery, output slack. reut.rs Analyzing differences between the 2000 tech-and-telecom bubble and 2020. bloom.bg U.S. employment growth slowed further in August and permanent job losses increased. reut.rs Bank of Canada to revisit inflation-targeting, shadowing the Federal Reserve’s strategy. reut.rs Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN) plans to add 10,000 jobs in Bellevue, Washington. reut.rs Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) could slow COVID-19 trials to add at-risk minorities. reut.rs Re-evaluation finds Microsoft Corporation’s (NASDAQ: MSFT) JEDI proposal is best. reut.rs Larry Kudlow expects the Trump administration to unveil aid for airlines in weeks. reut.rs AstraZeneca Plc (NYSE: AZN) starts final-stage trial of COVID-19 virus vaccine. bloom.bg Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) taps Samsung, Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU) for new gaming chips. reut.rs U.S. factory activity accelerates as order data jumps to more than 16-½-year high. reut.rs Airlines urge the U.K. and U.S. to start London, New York passenger testing trials. reut.rs Carnival Corp (NYSE: CCL) shares surge as cruises prepare to set sail this weekend. reut.rs Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) sees virus vaccine data in the thick of the U.S. election fight. reut.rs Key Metrics: Sentiment: 30.8% Bullish, 27.4% Neutral, 41.8% Bearish as of 9/2/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 1,920,532,148 as of 9/4/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 36% as of 9/4/2020. bit.ly Product Snapshot: S&P 500 (ES): Nasdaq 100 (NQ): Russell 2000 (RTY): Gold (GC): Crude Oil (CL): Treasury Bonds (ZB): Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
Shopify Has a Bullish TriangleShopify has been one of the strongest tech stocks since early 2019, leaving Amazon.com and even Tesla in the dust. It’s been quiet recently, consolidating in a tight range, and now that pattern is morphing into an ascending triangle with breakout potential. SHOP began July by moving above $1,000 for the first time, having tripled from early April. It tried to gap higher following a strong quarterly report on July 29, but MACD was falling so the sellers knocked it lower. (This looks very similar to Nio about three weeks ago.) But now MACD is starting to turn positive. SHOP has also held above its August 20 high and 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) yesterday. Those three patterns suggest the short-term momentum may be turning more positive again and moving back in unison with the longer-term uptrend. This may be a sign of momentum buyers returning. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by TradeStation
1
Etsy Has Deepest Pullback Since its Rally BeganE-commerce has grown dramatically in the era of coronavirus, as most traders know. A lot of the attention has obviously focused on the big names like Amazon.com, but smaller player Etsy has risen even more. ETSY crushed forecasts the last time it reported on August 5, with revenue more than doubling from the previous year. The stock ran into the news and then drifted lower. It’s now approaching some interesting levels. First, ETSY’s low today of $116.63 is slightly above its early-July peak. Second, it’s barely $1 above the 50-day simple moving average. That’s the closest it’s gotten to the 50-day SMA since early April. The shares are also oversold based on stochastics. Given the short-term weakness, traders may wait a little longer before doing much with ETSY. There could also be opportunities nearer $110 if there’s one final push to the downside. Still, ETSY’s been a very strong name in an important corner of the market. It may be time to start watching it around these levels.
NASDAQ:ETSY
by TradeStation
$RUN can fall in the next daysContextual immersion trading strategy idea. Sunrun Inc. engages in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States. The demand for shares of the company still looks lower than the supply. This and other conditions can cause a fall in the share price in the next days. So I opened a short position from $36,55; stop-loss — $39,02. Information about take-profits will be later. Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision. Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust. You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy. If you like my content, you can subscribe to the news and receive my fresh ideas. Thanks for being with me!
NASDAQ:RUNShort
by KozakHlib
$INTC Trending Upwards?Hi all, I am a bit new to TA and trading in general, so forgive me if I am making incorrect assumptions. I recently bought into INTC @ 48.75 as I am bullish on their short term and long term success, and I feel they are terribly undervalued at current. The share price recently dumped following the Q2 earnings report, despite their beating of estimates, reflecting their guidance for the Q3 report. Despite this and the ever-increasing market cap of $AMD and $NVDA, I still believe $INTC to be a solid company due to their well-established position in business computer chipsets and servers along with an increasing interest in cloud-based computing from companies such as $MSFT, which should hedge against encroachment by both $AMD and $NVDA. The sustained transition to online and remote learning, business, and medicine we have seen and will see in response to the COVID pandemic will likely only benefit the company due to the need for better hardware and cloud-based services to carry out these tasks from schools and businesses. Overall, they seem to be following the green trendline upwards and will likely see growth ahead of Q3 and further on, despite their guidance issued Q2, which I feel caused an overreaction in share price dip. I hope I am not too far off base with this prediction, and I would welcome any criticism or advice regarding TA or DD. Thanks so much!
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by AAInvestor_500
CSCO- Good Buy CurrentlyFA: Higher earnings than expected but still a 12% yearly fall. Service Sector of Business Has grown much larger than the Hardware side If COVID is to ease in the next 6-9 months, the forecast is positive for CSCO TA: Approaching Support Level after strong retracement Downside is far less than upside if an entry was made in this area. Fibonacci Retracements follow the S&R Lines. -Megalodon Please SHARE/LIKE & Comment and PS:Please follow responsible trade management, this is not financial advice
NASDAQ:CSCOLong
by BoSukas
8