TESLA Breaking below the 1W MA50 again but NOT a BUY yet.Three weeks ago we mentioned the importance of the All Time High (ATH) Lower Highs trend-line on Tesla (TSLA) and how critical it would be for the price to finally break above it for the first time in more than 2 years:
The 'Do or die moment' as we called it failed to deliver and the price got emphatically rejected on the Lower Highs for the 5th time. This rejection has brought the price below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) yet again on pre-market. The natural zone of Support now is the January 06 2023 Higher Lows trend-line (Cycle bottom) and the April 27 2023 Higher Lows (dashed) trend-line. As long as it holds, we expect a short-term bounce and another test of the ATH Lower Highs trend-line.
If the stock breaks above the ATH Lower Highs, we will buy for a long-term rally and target 345.00. If the price breaks below the (dashed) April 27 2023 Higher Lows, we can expect a bottom as low as even 180.00, which is the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line) of the Channel Down that started on the July 19 2023 High. If the 1D RSI though breaks first the 30.00 oversold barrier, we will take the profit on shorts and turn into a long-term buy (Target at $345.00 again) as every time the RSI turned oversold at 30.00, since December 2022, it was the most efficient buy opportunity we could get.
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Technology
AMD Correction expected on this Double Top.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has given excellent pull-back buy opportunities since our last analysis (December 12 2023, see chart below):
We believe though that it is time to take profit on those buy positions as the short-term Channel Up has made a Double Top similar to the June 13 2023 pattern, which started a prolonged correction. Even though the new correction doesn't have to be that long, even a shorter one is plausible as the same 1D RSI Bearish Divergence (on Lower Highs) that we currently have, was seen on all corrections within the 18-month Channel Up, with the shortest of them being -15%.
Assuming this worst case scenario, we turn now bearish and target 129.00 (-15% from the Top). Then as long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, or even if broken when it gets reclaimed, we will buy again for the long-term.
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SNOW (Long) - Beautiful Technicals, Don't look at FundamentalsFundamentals
Really not here to admire the pristine fundamentals - the stock is severely overpriced with a price-to-sales over 20
However, having been at this for a while, for a 6-month horizon, the technicals, price and the momentum are the things to focus on
Regardless, NYSE:SNOW is an outstanding company with a very bright future. However, its price might fluctuate wildly over the coming years until its sales catch up with the valuation
For now, the technicals are the key...
Technicals
The longer a firm has been forming a bottom, the more excited I tend to get about a breakout
The price of SNOW has been oscillating around for a while, forming a basing pattern (pick any of the three names on the screen) and accumulating share demand and momentum
If everything goes well, the price breaks out cleanly over the resistance (black line)
Looking at the stochastics, momentum is strong and volume has been on our side for the duration of the most recent up leg - shown by the Chaikin Money Flow indicator.
However, considering my slight doubts about the overall market, I would shorten the horizon on this trade to 2-3 months - to hedge the best in case the market calls the investors' "soft-landing" bluff
Trade
I see two potential way s of playing this trade: (i) enter where the price touched the red-coloured line, catching the pullback and frontrunning the breakout (if you have a strong conviction) or (ii) wait for the actual breakout - best-case scenario is a long, fat green candle which sustains the highs towards the close and does so on volume
Given the first choice, stop loss just below the red line or the 19-day EMA. With the second option, the black line is the obvious stop
Failed breakout would be an obvious no-no for me and I would abort the trade and wait how the price action develops
Also closely watch the NASDAQ:QQQ , Snowflake likes to follow it and I have some worries about the sustainability of the tech rally
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SHOPIFY More downside to come. Where to buy?Shopify (SHOP) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 market bottom. It recently made a Higher High but not at the top of the pattern and started to pull-back, losing most of its strength and momentum as the 1D RSI dropped to 45.50 (neutral). The price is still above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which keeps it bullish but in our opinion it won't be for long as it has started to resemble the pull-back after the December 02 2022 High.
That was on the Channel Up first bullish leg and it eventually pulled-back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, before the price rebounded again and almost reached the -0.382 Fib extension for a technical Higher High. Observe how similar the 1D RSI sequences are between the two.
As a result, we expect currently a downside as low as 60.50 (Fib 0.5) at least to test the 1D MA200 and then we will buy and target $94.00 (below the -0.382 Fib, projected +56% rise, which is 20% lower than the previous rise (+76.18%), similar to the difference the Feb 03 2023 High High had from its Dec 02 2022 High).
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Nasdaq - First Quarter Might Be Red➡️Hello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nasdaq.
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EOY Review $AMZN still some pivots to take out upsideNASDAQ:AMZN another bright green candle on the year
it did take out the low of previous year in Q1 by a bit
so, strat wise it's a 2 down on the year, obviously bright green
is it extended? maybe.....
but, the good thing for those with a bullish bias, still 2 previous yearly highs to take out
how strong will AMZN be in 2024? Let's see
AI about to break upwards aggressively.AI (C3.ai) has made a Higher High yesterday, the highest level it's been since August 15. Having put both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) behind, this rebound is taking place after a perfect bottom on the long-term Channel Up.
The first Bullish Leg of this pattern peaked on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension before a 1D MA200 pull-back. As a result, we are taking this early buy signal to target $60.00.
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PALANTIR Buy opportunities within the Channel Up.Palantir (PLTR) is trading within a 16-month Channel Up and is right now below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and above the Channel's median. Once the 1D RSI hits again the Support Zone, it will be a buy opportunity again (assuming it also hits the Channel's median). The previous Bullish Leg on the median rose by 58.85%. As a result our target will be $25.00.
This trade will be invalidated if the price breaks below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). In this case, we will wait until the stock approaches the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up again. The previous Bullish Leg on the Channel's bottom rose by +136.50%, which is marginally above the $25.00 target.
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APPLE Technical top at $210.Apple (AAPL) hit on Friday our $195.00 short-term target which we called on our latest November 12 analysis (see chart below):
The rally seems far from over as the recent pull-back turned out to be only a Bull Flag pattern, which typically prompts to a continuation of the trend. Being within a long-term Rising Wedge pattern, this pull-back resembles, even on 1D RSI terms, that of March 02, only on weaker strength (reasonably as the sequences get narrower towards the end of the pattern).
That first rally of the Wedged peaked just above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. The current sequence's 1.382 Fib is at $210.00, which falls perfectly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Rising Wedge, and that is our medium-term target.
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A clear risk on event is taking placeI multiplied the less risky Dow and Spy while dividing it with a multiple of bio, the Russel and Ark. This shows a clear shooting star candle in development this month which should signal much greater future gains in higher risk stocks and an end to this pullback in the market.
You can see that we had nice rallies the last two times that this has happened on this chart at March 2020 and Feb 2016.
I also noticed some more supporting evidence that this is near the bottom from the dark orange wedge breakout. If you measure the bottom to the peak in 2015-16 you can get an ideal exit target for the wedge breakout. Typically, you would measure from the breakout point, which it hasn't reached at this time, but if you measure from the bottom, you can see that the target has interestingly been reached to an almost exact amount.
We also have the yellow resistance and the peak at March 2020 as a pivot point for all of these lines. Not too critical of a point, I just found that interesting haha.
We also have institutions like black rock capitulating on growth twitter.com
Many institutions were bearish on the market at the bottom of the covid dip.
Finally we have a heavily overbought RSI and stoch on the monthly that also signals a top.
Now the short term future outlook looks bullish on risk to me but I was thinking on potential long term possibilities from there:
I believe that the yellow trajectory is more likely to happen over the blue one at this point to be honest. The blue option just requires too much competence in all global leaders to pull off so it seems unlikely to me and would be frankly miraculous. But it could still happen.
The yellow one would basically give investors an opportunity to exit growth at more reasonable prices before the market continues its tank fest again. And while I have this pivot point at Jan 2024, it could happen much steeper and faster and pivot later this year.
The yellow support line and the blue breakout line are most important to watch and see what option it'll be.
Altman + Microsoft: Will AI Wizardry Catapult Stocks ?Microsoft's trajectory into the future takes a compelling turn with the addition of Sam Altman, an AI luminary, to its internal team. This analysis explores the fusion of technology and finance, specifically delving into Altman's impact on AI development within Microsoft. We examine the integration of advanced AI features into Microsoft 365 and assess Microsoft's competitive position in the dynamic AI market.
On the financial front, Microsoft's robust fundamental rating sets the stage for closer scrutiny, emphasizing its stability and profitability. Altman's potential influence on Microsoft's stock value, given his renowned AI contributions, is a key focus, highlighting the pivotal role of innovation in sustaining and enhancing stock performance.
This concise analysis aims to unravel the symbiotic relationship between technological prowess and financial resilience, providing insights into Microsoft's post-Altman journey. As we navigate challenges and opportunities, the conclusion offers a holistic perspective on Microsoft's potential to lead in AI technology and maintain a competitive edge globally.
Technology Analysis:
Impact of Sam Altman Joining the Microsoft AI Team:
With Sam Altman's experience in AI development through OpenAI, his presence in Microsoft's internal team can positively influence the advancement of more sophisticated AI technology. The potential integration of Altman's ideas and strategies can strengthen innovation within Microsoft applications.
AI Technology in Microsoft 365 Applications:
Recent changes in Microsoft 365, such as the addition of Copilot features, demonstrate Microsoft's commitment to integrating artificial intelligence into its products. This can enhance user appeal and expand the user base of Microsoft applications.
Competitors and Position in the AI Market:
In the intense competition in the artificial intelligence sector with companies like Amazon, Google, and Facebook, Microsoft's strategic move with Sam Altman joining can help maintain and enhance its position in the AI market.
Financial Analysis:
Fundamental Rating of MSFT:
With a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10, Microsoft is considered highly profitable with no liquidity or solvency issues. A good dividend rating and consistent profits over the last 5 years indicate financial stability.
Impact of Sam Altman's Presence on MSFT Stock:
In addition to his contributions to technology development, Sam Altman's presence can also act as a positive catalyst for Microsoft's stock. Altman's reputation in the AI field and his connection with Microsoft can build investor confidence.
Innovation as the Key to Stock Value Increase:
In the face of tough competition, continuous innovation in AI technology is crucial to maintaining and increasing stock value. Altman's joining provides an additional potential for innovation that can influence the performance of MSFT stock.
Combined Analysis:
Synergy of Technology and Finance:
The combination of superior technology and stable financial conditions strengthens Microsoft's position in facing the future. Technological innovation is key to reinforcing the company's value, and, therefore, the potential for stock increase.
Challenges and Opportunities:
Despite Microsoft's solid fundamentals, challenges in AI competition persist. Hence, the company needs to stay focused on innovation and adapt to market developments.
With Sam Altman's support, Microsoft has the opportunity to continue leading in AI technology development. This enhancement can play a crucial role in the growth of MSFT stock value; however, long-term success also depends on the company's ability to stay competitive in the dynamic and competitive market.
NVIDIA Incredible strength long-term. Is $1100 realistic?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) gave us a great bottom buy entry last time (October 22) we made a call on it and invalidated the Head and Shoulders pattern (see chart below):
This time we look at it on the 1W time-frame where it is on the 4th straight green weekly candle, approaching the Higher Highs trend-line. The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) provide Support, while the 1W RSI is on a Bearish Divergence (Channel Down) but the 1W MACD is about to form a Bullish Cross.
The last we had the above combination of indicators, was February 16 2021. At the time, the 1W MACD failed to make the Bullish Cross and the stock pulled back to the 1W MA50 but when it formed the Cross on April 12 2021, it broke above the Higher Highs. What followed was a 7-month rally to the -0.618 Fibonacci extension.
As you can see, the symmetry between the two fractals is striking. When the MACD Bullish Cross takes place, we would assume a similar rise and the -0.618 Fib target will be at $1100. Is that in your opinion realistic for Q3 2024?
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WOW OH WOW. Minus $1 to target please!!INTC is failed the most recent high, it broke its uptrend and sold off right below the point of control (yellow line). I would expect a sell-off to continue to the .382 (white line which is also the next area with the most amount of volume traded.
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AMD to BUY & HOLDDear Investors,
AMD is showing a strong buying signal after good fundamentals this year.
this could be your opportunity to invest in a low-risk high-reward trade.
you can contact me for more info on why this is a good trade & give you a strategy on how to manage this trade and close it in the best scenario possible.
you can check my old trades too to get an idea of my trading mentality.
AirBNB: Arriving 🛬 🌴Due to the recent sell-off, the price of AirBNB has now reached our magenta target zone between $116.53 and $96.73. This means that the minimum requirements of the magenta wave (2) have been met, implying that the price could theoretically complete its reversal. However, we still expect a drop to the 61.80% retracement first, in order to make the low there. Wave (3) should then take the price clearly higher.