$NDQ #QQQ $QQQ pulling a Wu-Tang patternlooking at the 1hr chart, there is a classic W pattern formation going on here. December was a tough month for tech, and looks to be finally recovering. This weeks moves show a break above the prior down channel, with tightly wound consolidation. TBH I see this going in either direction, but with the tax loss harvesting done for 2021, my money is on volume buy-ins this month, with a beginning of a reversal in March when tapering is ending and rates are set to go up.
NFA
Technologystocks
AMAZON The Triangle's of +100% riseThis chart is for the long-term investors. Being on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, AMZN has been trading within a Triangle (Ascending) since September 2020. This neutral mega-phase, has had many investors questioning whether the overbought state of early 2020 has made the stock lose its bullish dynamics. This pattern comparison with the previous neutral phase puts things into perspective.
As you see the same Triangle pattern was formed from August 2018 to March 2020. On a monthly basis, every candle closed below the Resistance and only when that broke, Amazon started a parabolic rally. In 2021 Triangle we've have two major monthly break-outs but both retraced below the Resistance within the same month, leaving just a candle wick reminding of the failed attempt.
The stock has a tendency of rising more than +100% when such break-outs take place. If you are a long-term trader/ investor, look for a 1M candle close above the Resistance as confirmation of a +100% rally.
* Useful correlation:
As the chart above shows, the LMACD indicates that Amazon is going trough distinct Cycles. Right now it shows that we are closer to a bottom.
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FRONTKN near term resistance at 4.00High demand and shortage of chips in the semiconductor industry will further drive technology sector higher. FRONTKN in our watchlist given its good quarter results and our BMS chart signals are still bullish. Near resistance would be the first Resistance pivot line at 4.00.
Software at 200sma + HorizontalIGV, a Software based ETF, is currently at the 200sma which has shown support before. It is also at horizontal support from February highs.
Trade setup is drawn in chart. The risk-reward-ratio is above 4.
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Good luck.
Twitter - Bullish Sequence!We are bullish on twitter, after completing wave (y) in the minute green degree of which the downward move began in about mid-July 2021, this move has seen twtr move lower to the bottom of the channel as low as $41.00. Now we expect twtr to resume the bullish cycle of wave 3 in the red minor degree to at least about $167.00. This drop has presented us with a good opportunity to buy twtr at a discounted price.
Brief overview of the stocks of the 2 major GPU manufacturersRecently I decided to take a delve into the sector of the stock market that truly represents my personal interests, the performance PC hardware sector. I've been performing investigation into various companies such as NASDAQ:INTC (Intel Corporation), NASDAQ:NVDA (Nvidia) & NASDAQ:AMD (Advanced Micro Devices). In many peculiar ways, these companies are very similar but also have some startling differences. What caused me to publish this idea, despite the fact that I am trying to build up some reputation, is I was doing some comparisons between Nvidia and AMD as they are the 2 major competitors in the graphics card market which is currently in some state of paralysis. During my brief investigation, I was trying to identify which option would be a viable option for 3+ year investment. Through some comparison I've come to notice some surprising facts about each company.
First of all, AMD was not a competitive company for more than 10 years after their "birth". Around 5 years ago they were on the brink of bankruptcy, due to various factors including more debt than what could have been considered manageable or sustainable. Since then, Lisa Su was appointed CEO of AMD and pulled the company straight out of that sticky situation. Since then AMD has risen in price more than 1300 percentage points. The company has attained a fairly stable financial position and moderate PE ratio in comparison to its competitors. Considering its growth, the PE ratio and earnings per share are actually impressive.
Nvidia has been established for a significantly longer period of time and have diversified within the hardware market to try maintain their monopoly as best they can despite companies such as AMD coming along and "rocking the boat". Between these 2 companies, they are sitting at very similar positions in the present bull market (At least from the perspective of an investor seeking a diversified portfolio). Due to Nvidia being listed for a considerably longer period of time, they have had time to grow and their overall market cap is sitting at just over $800B whilst AMD is sitting at a quarter of this. Both companies on the other hand have very similar EPS of $3.28 (AMD) and $3.30 (Nvidia). Based solely on statistical indication, AMD will prevail as the best investment choice as they have maintained a considerably lower PE ratio versus Nvidia (47.93 AMD; 97.17 Nvidia) and the PE hints towards their future performance as it has done in the past.
Obviously a multiplier of 47 is by no means 'attractive' but in comparison nearly 100, I would far rather put my money in AMD especially considering how good management at AMD has become, the overall stability is reassuring from a speculative stand point.
TL;DR: AMD is looking to be the far more appealing investment versus Nvidia (lower PE, similar EPS considering stocks available and company capacity)
SONOS (SONO) to explode higher post Q4 EarningsFundamental Analysis
Sonos is a technology company, that specializes in the home audio, wireless and multi-room sound systems. It's major competitors are Bose, JBL, Harmon Kardon, Cabasse in the higher-end home speaker space.
The firm sells a wide range of audio devices including connected speakers, subwoofers, soundbars for TVs and more.
Sonos made a big step in the right direction earlier this year, when the company entered into the popular portable smart speaker segment with its $179 mass-market Roam speaker.
The company has also seen a significant increase in demand for its products as a result of the consumer shift towards modern, connected devices, smart homes etc. and this tailwind is expected to continue to push the company forward as more people spend on home-based upgrades. Recognizing the fact that the company relies heavily on its hardware sales, the senior management at Sonos has slowly but surely began to diversify the company's business by introducing new services and features to its clients. The most recent one was the Sonos Radio HD, which is an ad-free streaming tier of its music service competing directly with the likes of Spotify and it costs $7.99 per month. Following the example of the leading tech giants out there like Apple (AAPL), Sonos wants to build an ecosystem of products and services that will increase the loyalty to the brand, its revenue streams and overall efficiency.
Sonos revenue climbed 11% in FY19 and 5% last year. Analysts expect call for its 2021 (year ended October 2) sales to surge more than 30% to over $1.8 billion, with FY22 projected to jump another 13% higher to come in at $1.95 billion. The company is expected to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.18 a share last year all the way to +$1.11 in FY21, with FY22 set to climb another 6% higher.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the stock has been in a sideways consolidation trading range in the last 8 months, after the huge BULL run in the Sept. 2020 - March 2021 period. We saw the stock failing to break the ATH resistance at the $44 mark on few occasions earlier in the Spring. Since then, the stock has been stuck within the broad $31-$44 range, with few sharp rises and declines. However, most recently we've seen a strong pickup in the bullish momentum for the stock heading into its Q4 Earnings report, which is scheduled to be released on November 17th after the market close. This shows that investors are positive about the future of the company and as a result expect to see the stock moving higher. We are seeing both the RSI and the Stochastic oscillators trending upwards on their daily graphs. The current position of the stock with respect to the above-mentioned price range as well as the upcoming earnings report, combined with the 4 straight Earnings beats that Sonos has produced in its last 4 EPS reports, we expect to see a major move to the upside for the stock in the coming weeks.
We see Sonos moving easily towards the higher end of the price range around $44 per share before the end of November, where it will face certain selling pressure as many pending SELL orders are waiting there. However, we believe that the stock will ultimately manage to break above this strong resistance, which will then open up the door for a strong rally towards the $55-60 range in Q1, 2022.
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PALANTIR - Possible bear trap in progress? Hi All, my main 3 take-outs from this analysis are the following:
1- Despite the huge volumes in the recent drop, I personally feel like this might be a bear trap
2- Inside candle pattern which might mean reversal anytime soon
3- Big descending wedge on the daily chart with take profit projection at all time high.
Not a financial advice, just personal opinion. Do your own due diligence and good luck!
$HSTECH Bearish Engulfing day followed by Island ReversalHSI Tech reversal
$BABA showed weakness last week and again led to the complex reversal.
It seems the counter-trend rally may have come to an end.
$HSI also has a smaller degree Island Reversal as well. It should lead to some volatility here on.
Seagate Breaks the DowntrendSeagate Technology has spent the last five months pulling back. But now it may be turning around.
The main pattern on today’s chart is the descending trendline that started in May and ran along the peaks of August and September. Notice how STX closed above that line on Friday.
Next, the jump followed two weeks of consolidation along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). A bounce at that level may suggest its longer-term uptrend remains intact. It also occurred near the July 21 low at $78.86.
Third, consider why STX jumped last week: strong quarterly results and guidance. The hard-drive maker is enjoying a surge of demand from data-center customers. Its relatively low multiple (about 10 times forward earnings) could also provide some cushion against rising interest rates.
Finally, notice how the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is on the verge of rising above the 21-day EMA. STX may pause around its current level, but a cross of the 8-day EMA above the 21-day could signal shorter-term momentum has grown more positive.
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10x potential gain at long timeIt has been reacted to the below area of the channel. So may go back to the middle line at least then reach higher.
AMAZON targeting $4300 once the accumulation is over.Since the Subprime mortgage crisis, Amazon has been repeating a very distinct pattern. After every correction, it gets supported by either the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) or the 1W MA150 (red trend-line) and spends almost a year inside an accumulation zone. Once that's over, it targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the bottom of the correction.
The chart is on the log scale of course, in order to capture and better illustrate these patterns throughout AMZN's immense growth. See how the Accumulation Phases have a similar LMACD pattern every time.
Right now the price has only rebounded on the 1W MA50, three times since March 2021. I believe that as it happened in 2015 and 2020, it needs to hit one MA50 period lower than the first that supported and the next in line is the 1W MA100. Once successfully completed, I expect the price to make again a 2.0 Fib leap which right now is just over $4300.
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APPLE Further correction aheadPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Sell towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and reverse to a buy either upon contact (buy signal last time) or when the CCI hits its Buy Zone (confirmed 3 times since November 2020).
Target: the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
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VMWARE MONTHLY AMAZING HEAD AND SHOULDERSVMware, Inc. is an American cloud computing and virtualization technology company headquartered in California. VMware was the first commercially successful company to virtualize the x86 architecture. Excellent bullish break of a head and shoulders on a monthly timeframe that can be used as an entry point on this asset.
SPLUNK GOOD OPPORTUNITIES Splunk Inc. is an American technology company based in San Francisco, California, that produces software for searching, monitoring, and analyzing machine-generated data via a Web-style interface.
Interesting situation on this asset, with a good price movement on the weekly basis. Scenario that opens the possibility to different operations with an excellent risk-return ratio. I report a bullish divergence on the weekly.
Quisitive Technology Solutions TA and thoughts $QUIS.VQuisitive $QUIS.V / $QUISF will report Q2 earnings on Aug 30th after the bell. This will be a company changing quarterly report IMO. For a detailed breakdown on what to expect for earnings you can follow my substack, I will be publishing an updated Q2 projection this weekend.
Price has failed to break lower on the last two selloffs. the 200 dma held and the stock bounced up Friday on light volume. Take in that volume contraction over August. Besides a few large buys that show up its been quiet on the Quis front. I believe Quis will run into earnings now this week. Its not going to take a whole lot to get us up to that overhead resistance I have lined out (1.68-1.70 range). This move up implies just over a 20% gain in 6 trading days.
Where the fun/risk comes into play is the market reaction to the numbers Quis puts up. IMO there is a chance Quis can push upwards of $24 million in revenue, which would be near 100% yoy growth. Again, my stack will breakdown this down in more detail. Furthermore what will drive sentiment is comments from CEO Mike Reinhart on LedgerPay commercialization being on schedule (no reason to believe it wont be) + any pilot projects that have been undertaken during Q3. Full Commercialization for LedgerPay is due after Visa Certification has been awarded, expected at end of Sept.
All in all, I believe there is a trade to be had here, as well as a good buy range at the start of the week for a long position. I also have quis's chart on stockcharts set up on weekly with rsi, macd and OBV - the stock is technically oversold and has a reasonably long runway if it moves up with purpose. I believe it will. Earnings could be the set up for a stronger push up near end of Sept when LP reaches full commercialization. Again, Mike Reinhart's comments will be key here to giving the market guidance.
I have a large position relative to my book in $QUIS.V, As always please do your own DD and follow your own trading rules.
Cheers,
Luke
NAS100 H1 SETUPThe Nas100 is trading at the top of a corrective structure on the H1 time frame and is currently in wave 4. This means that there are two options on the table. In my opinion we are more likely to see option one play out but that is definitely not guaranteed.
Option one is that the price breaks the top of the structure and moves to the target area of 15280.
Option two is that there is a retracement to complete wave 5 to the bottom of the structure before the reversal and break to the target area of 15235.
The weekly time frame setup suggests that the target to the upside is around the 15750 mark so I am looking to trade all the smaller long setups up to that level. From there I will need to watch for structure formations in order to see direction.
Happy trading!
Linton White
QuickTrade
Disclaimer
This information is not intended as advice or as a trading signal. Should you use this information in any way whatsoever, you do so at your own personal discretion.