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#VolatilityWatchTechnical indicators looking bullish for #intel. Weekly chart shows recent MacD Crossover, with Directional Movement indicator (DMI) crossover suggests bulls have control of trend with $INTC. INTC is currently trading above the 200 day moving average, which has acted as support but is not support traders should be watching. Previous pattern suggests Intel will continue to build out a symmetrical triangle pattern along with a current cup and handle formation where #INTC would get close to testing the $60 level. On the other hand, at this $59.92->$60 price level there is a potential triple top to watch out for as it could be a point where shorts would start piling in. On the event of a breakout, INTC could easily be trading back above $60. Downside risk seems minimal if you are a long term investor. Watch for 618 retracement to continue uptrend. This would also take price to long-term support at $46 and I believe this would make a very compelling value play for investors and funds who are still sidelined. Follow me on Instagram and Twitter @VolatilityWatch Like and follow so I can continue finding awesome trades. Thank you in advance. Disclosure: I do not own INTC. I am not a financial adviser and this is not note to buy or sell. Please do your homework before investing.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by follow_the_money
Buy AIM listed tech stock Bidstack Group - Breaking higher!LSE:BIDS Bidstack bridges the gap between gamers, game developers, and advertisers by enhancing the gaming experience with rich, real-world advertising. The shares have risen impressively over the past couple of years and following a period of consolidation that trend looks set to continue. We have seen the shares break higher from an ending wedge formation and a move towards 50p is now expected over the short to medium term. Buy! Stop loss at 24.5p Target 50p
BLong
by Investamate
Is CRSP going to "technically" break the bear trend this weekIn my previous post on #CRISPR I talked about the Green upward sloping trendline & how every time CRSPR has traded on or below it since May 2017 we've seen parabolic action. I don't want to say I told you so, but we've seen some parabolic action. To my surprise, the parabolic movement came the news of Vertex upfront payment of $175 million upfront payment. Specifically, Vertex gets worldwide rights for CRISPR/Cas9 technology along with other items such as AAV vectors for DMD and DM1. This deal totals just about $1 billion when you factor in all milestone payments for these programs, plus royalties. Moving on to the chart now.. It appears as though CRSP is about to "technically" breakout of the bear trend which started in May 2018 after reaching ATH's. The blue downward sloping trendlines are the attached to the swing highs, and one has already been broken to the upside, which could be considered the first real confirmation of a trend reversal. Once the second blue downward sloping trendline is broken to the upside CRSP is "technically" out of the bear trend, IMO. Time will tell per usual.
NASDAQ:CRSPLong
by ScotianBot
GDX stock price forecast timing analysisStock investing strategies AMEX:GDX Read more: www.pretiming.com Investing position about Supply-Demand(S&D) strength: Strong buy as Rising section of high profit & low risk Supply-Demand(S&D) strength linkage Trend Analysis: In the midst of an adjustment trend of downward direction box pattern stock price flow marked by limited rises and downward fluctuations. Today's Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Flow: Supply-Demand strength has changed from a weak selling flow to a suddenly strengthening selling flow. D+1 Candlestick Color forecast: GREEN Candlestick %D+1 Range forecast: 0.2% (HIGH) ~ -0.4% (LOW), -0.1%(CLOSE) %AVG in case of rising: 1.8% (HIGH) ~ -0.4% (LOW), 1.3% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of falling: 0.5% (HIGH) ~ -1.3% (LOW), -0.8%(CLOSE) Stock Price Forecast Timing Criteria: Stock price forecast timing is analyzed based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength.
AMEX:GDXShort
by pretiming
What does CUSP.P have in common with 2 of the largest MJ Stocks?Bruce Linton & William Hilson, I made it easy for you lol. They've had their eye on a specific company to takeover before they made this capital pool company! Cronos Group has a 2.4 Billion Dollar investment from Altria Group. Canopy has a 5 Billion Dollar investment from Constellation Brands. Here's a link to Cuspis Overview, put www. before ollerheadcapital.com ollerheadcapital.com/cuspis-capital.html Same thing with this link to cusp.p shareholders, just put http:// before cdn.ceo cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1e8i559-CUSP.P.png
CLong
by ScotianBot
1
$CMPY: This past +30% winner just signed a deal w/ Tech Giant...===================== CMPY (Comepay Inc.) Alert Price: $4.30 Float: 476.342K Chart Analysis ======================== Members, It's only Tuesday, and our trade ideas have already delivered as much as +187% in long-term profit! For our next trade idea, we are revisiting one of our biggest winners of Q1 2019. Please turn your immediate attention to CMPY (Comepay Inc.). The last time we brought CMPY to your attention, shares of this up-and-coming payment solutions provider rallied over +31% from $4.00 to a high of $5.25! Shares of CMPY have since pulled back to a much more attractive entry price of $4.30, but we believe its next run past $5.00 could start as early as tomorrow. Here's why... CMPY has recently added tech industry giant Asus to its already impressive client list, which includes automotive giant Volvo, and industrial juggernaut Bosch. It's not often you see multi-billion dollar market cap companies sign contracts with little known companies like CMPY. This leads us to believe that CMPY's technology is best in breed, and that the Company itself is undervalued at the moment! It's no surprise that CMPY's management plans to uplist the Company this year, If you didn't know already, CMPY operates in one of the most lucrative sectors on Wall St., with companies like Square Inc. delivering over +175% in returns within the last year. Currently trading at $4.30 per share, we believe that CMPY shows traders much more upside potential than the bigger names in this sector. This has the potential to be one of our biggest winners of Q1 2019. If you missed out on CMPY's previous +31% run, you may want to consider jumping on board this time around. That being said, we are urging all members to read our full profile, start their research now, and consider grabbing up a position in CMPY tomorrow morning at 9:30AM EST! About Comepay The Comepay group of companies including Comepay, RP Systems, M-NN LLC and Chek-online have been operating for over 11 years providing internet acquiring services and support, facilitating instant payments and internet-based payment transactions via kiosks, mobile interfaces and web-based applications such as electronic wallets. The Company also leases and sells cash registers and Point of Sale (POS) systems, including its recently developed proprietary multifunctional smart POS fiscal cash register system. Combining proprietary software and equipment, Comepay processes over 10 million customer payments per month and presently has more than 22,000 kiosks across Russia. The companies are currently focusing their planned business expansion on the smart POS fiscal cash register system called “Cassatka” in order to help businesses comply with newly released Russian taxation legislation, 54-FZ which requires 1.2 million businesses in fiscal 2018, and a further 1.4 million businesses in fiscal 2019 to install new, federally compliant on-line cash registers. The Cassatka, Comepay’s multifunctional smart POS online fiscal cash register can process payments and meet fiscal data storage requirements for participating businesses. It is a convenient and cost competitive solution for businesses to meet the new federal taxation requirements in Russia, and is currently being manufactured for distribution prior to June 2018. As the companies expand their business model, we expect to offer blockchain acquiring services and also to accept payments in multiple crypto currencies on the Cassatka. The Comepay group of companies presently earn revenue from a variety of channels including fee based commissions on payment processing for both cash and debit card payments, software licensing, kiosk placement fees and other rental fees for cash registers and associated equipment. The Comepay companies are looking to expand rapidly in fiscal 2018 and beyond as we introduce and market the Cassatka along with a suite of enhanced user features. Please see websites below: www.comepaygroup.com, www.comepay.ru, www.Cassatka.me, www.chekonline.ru, www.starrys.ru Bullish Catalysts for CMPY Added Asus as its newest customer in order to bring their online store compliant with Russian Federal Law 54, requiring businesses and individuals to use federally compliant cash registers, including a fiscal chip for processing sales transactions. CMPY has been one of the market's top performing publicly trading companies, with shares up over 1,333% over the last 52-weeks! Based on our very own chart analysis, we see the realistic potential for a +128% move. Processes over 10 million customer payments per month and presently has more than 22,000 kiosks across Russia. Added increased functionality to its smart terminals including the Unified State Automated Information System (“USAIS”) app, in order to simplify reporting of alcoholic beverages and products to the Federal Tax Authority of the Russian Federation, including the ability to issue industry compliant receipts for alcoholic products sold. Upcoming release of a full-featured version of its app for iOS- and Android-based smartphones and tablets. Chek-online development staff are yet to disclose the name of the app and its exact release date, but expect the app to be launched no later than May of 2019. Recently signed up Volvo (Russia) for provision of stationary smart terminal units located inside its data centers in Russia. Entered into a lease agreement with Bosch, a global market leader in electronics and engineering, for provision of stationary smart terminal units located inside its data centers in Russia. Upcoming release of a full-featured version of its app for iOS- and Android-based smartphones and tablets. Partnership with Russian retail bank, Post Bank, for purchase and sale of the Cassatka, their fully compliant smart terminal cash register line to meet fiscal compliance legislation across Russia. The Company has plans to uplist this year. 5 Reasons Why We Think CMPY Needs to be on Top of Your Watchlist THE RIGHT SPACE How are tech stocks in the market looking? Wall Street will tell you it’s the hottest investment market in a decade. It’s on fire, literally and figuratively. INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS CMPY is all about the payments.CMPY uses tech to make payments easier and more efficient. We believe this provides investors a unique opportunity to acquire an interest in an upcoming tech company that could be a leader in the payment industry. UNDER THE RADAR Being new to the market and hovering under the radar of Wall Street, we believe CMPY is attractive in comparison to its peers. And up until now, one of the best-kept secrets. MASSIVE GROWTH POTENTIAL The market opportunity for CMPY is HUGE! Comepay could take the mobile payment markets by storm. THE BEST AND THE BRIGHTEST Boasting a “top-tier technology that is unmatched in the industry”, the CMPY provides a one-stop source for everything payment related. Recent Developments IS CMPY GOING TO REVOLUTIONIZE ONLINE PAYMENTS? Comepay, Inc. (CMPY) (“the Company”) is pleased to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary Chek-Online LLC, a leading manufacturer of fiscal cash registers in Russia, and developer of the family of Cassatka smart terminals has disclosed the upcoming release of a full-featured version of its app for iOS- and Android-based smartphones and tablets. Chek-online development staff are yet to disclose the name of the app and its exact release date, but expect the app to be launched no later than May of 2019. The mobile app is designed to allow all users who have downloaded the platform to easily find outlets that use the Cassatka online cash terminal: view all available products, compare prices, receive discounts and immediately place orders for delivery to any location in the city, paying remotely using their bankcard. The seller, in turn, will receive a notification about the online order on their Cassatka smart terminal, and will be able to process the order for delivery. The details of the products featured on the app will be made available using the built-in accounting system provided with the fiscal cash register. Business owners can update their back end system in order for the app to provide details such as products for sale, number of units in stock, price and available discounts. All information provided in the app is automatically synchronized with the individual login account for the business owner and transferred to the app. Data transferred to the app is available for download by any interested consumer. Currently, more than 20,000 individual businesses across Russia are selling their products and processing payments using our series of Cassatka online cash registers, with new users being added on a daily basis. According to the Chek-online development team, this app is intended to establish a direct connection between the seller and the buyer, creating a comfortable environment for online. The app is also intended to drive potential customers to mobile storefronts and encourage online trade. It was important to the Chek-online development team that users can compare both like products from storefronts in the same product category, as well as other product categories. As a result, potential customers are able to create a multi-category basket in the app pulling product from different stores into one easy to use comparison and purchase process. The app is designed to provide all the advantages and benefits that come with other online shopping providers. Customers will easily be able to access the necessary information about the products in order to quickly and efficiently be able to make an informed decision about online purchases. Market Outlook Global payments revenues swelled to $1.9 trillion in 2017, the best single year of growth in the last five years. The Asia–Pacific region, including China—which currently accounts for the largest share of payments revenues (40 percent)—will continue to be the engine of growth. It will comprise 56 percent of the global increase in revenues during the next five years, with China alone accounting for 40 percent of the global increase. However, Western Europe and developed Asia, where growth rates have been negative in recent years, will also rebound. Cross-border payments and trade finance will benefit in the coming years as well, driven by the strong recovery expected in trade flows (which have a projected compound annual growth rate of 8 percent from 2013 to 2018). This return to strong growth is being fueled primarily by sustainable volume increases, rather than less sustainable improvements in revenue margins, for both liquidity revenues (net interest income on liquid assets and deposits2 ) and transactional revenues (fee and float income on payments transactions). Indeed, margin improvement will barely contribute to the $410 billion increase in liquidity revenues between 2013 and 2018. Transactional revenues will increase by $340 billion by 2018 due to higher transaction volumes, despite the dampening effects of more regulation and competition. Technical Analysis We love alerting these past winners because we already have a good idea of their trading behavior. From what we see right now, CMPY appears to be primed and ready to break through its $5.00 resistance. Based on our very own chart analysis, we see the realistic potential for a +128% move. With its low-float of 476,342K, CMPY appears to move on air! On December 27th, we saw its share price nearly double on light volume! We've already watched CMPY tick up over +31% in just a few days time. If you missed out on CMPY's previous +31% run, you may want to consider jumping on board this time around. This has the potential to be one of our biggest winners of Q1 2019! As such, we are urging all members to start their research now, and consider grabbing up a position in CMPY tomorrow morning at 9:30AM EST! (*Remember to use a Stop-Loss Order or basic Limit Order to protect your gains, as well as limit possible losses.) Best Regards, The TopMarketGainers Team Don't Miss Our Next Huge Winner... Text 'GAINS' to '67076' to have our Trade Alerts Delivered Direct to your Cell Phone. (There is no charge. Msg&data rates may apply.) DISCLAIMER This newsletter is a paid advertisement, not a recommendation nor an offer to buy or sell securities. This newsletter is owned, operated and edited by both MJ Capital, LLC and PennyStockLocks, LLC. Any wording found in this e-mail or disclaimer referencing to “I” or “we” or “our” refers to MJ Capital, LLC and PennyStockLocks, LLC. Our business model is to be financially compensated to market and promote small public companies. 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OTC:CMPYLong
by RedHotStocks
NVIDIA - Full Stock AnalysisThis is my first brief overview of a companies financial health and what I derive from its latest 10-K reports. I am open to discussion about any of the topics and encourage people to say where my thoughts might differ to theirs. I hope you enjoy! Balance Sheet Cash and Cash Equivalents – increased from the prior year from $1,776,000,000 to $4,002,000,000. I would be hesitant to recommend that NVIDIA is generating so much cash. Over the last 6 years NVIDIA’s average purchases in marketable securities has been increasing towards $3 billion however for year ending Jan 2018 they only made purchases of $36,000,000. Perhaps these funds will be used in the next financial year, but it is worth noting it seems a lot better than it initially is. Looking at the statement of cash flows will help understand this. Marketable Securities – decreased from $5,032,000,000 to $3,106,000,000. If NVIDIA did decide to invest the $3 billion mentioned earlier, back into short term marketable securities, it would be sitting at around $5 billion and cash would be down to $1 billion. Here you have NVIDIA not buying any more marketable securities and retiring of existing securities. Cash is likely to have been a lot lower if they followed their previous trajectory. Accounts Receivable – increased from $826,000,000 to $1,265,000,000 (53.1%). Around 6-7 years ago accounts receivable was around 9.5% of revenue generated and now it is 13.02%. If we extrapolate out the numbers, you can see that the ratio of account receivables to revenue increases to a ratio that would be cause for concern. When account receivables growth outpaces revenue growth questions need to be asked why. One of the possibilities for this increase is that NVIDIA needs to offer longer credit terms for customers to remain competitive. If this is the case, then it is a concern for NVIDIA’s competitive advantage. In a low competitive environment, they would be able to keep this line on the balance sheet low. It could also mean that they are having trouble receiving payment from customers due to the recent decline in cryptocurrency, in which case allowances for bad debts will need to be increased to accommodate this. Major competitor Intel’s accounts receivable to revenue sat a much more comfortable 8.9% and AMD at 7.5%. This ratio is definitely one to keep an eye on as NVIDIA heads into the future as it could cause harm to its competitive advantage. Image of example case of Accounts Receivable: gyazo.com Inventories – Having a low inventory can be the sign of an efficient business that can meet it’s demands without the costs associated of inventory (holding, security and opportunity). Inventories only increased 0.0025% to $796,000,000 or Inventory/Revenue Ratio of 0.082 which was better than Intel and AMD’s ratios. Inventory over the last 6 years has grown by 11.2% which is less than the revenue growth meaning they are clearing products and moving away from a primarily tangible goods-based business, a sign of a healthy company. It is worth noting that inventory is likely to have a build through 2018 and into 2019 due to the cryptocurrency mining industry, however this will not affect the company in the long term and so, any effects felt in the stock market could provide useful entry points depends on what price NVDA stock trades at. Property, Plant and Equipment – increased by 91.3% to $997,000,000. The reason for this large increase was down to the purchase of a built-to-suit building at $335,000,000 and will be used over the next 25-30 years. This line consists of land valued at $218,000,000 which was purchased back in 2008 and was not subsequently revalued due to the recording on the balance sheet at cost. If we take a conservative increase in local commercial property of 6% over the last 9 years this adds $150,000,000 in land valuation, something we might expect if we were to sell the land in reasonable market conditions. The fact that this land was bought during a crisis would suggest that management had a level head and were hunting for a fire-sale adding value to the company. An interesting figure to consider is NVIDIA’s property, plant and equipment/adjusted revenue ratio. The idea behind this is to see how effective its long-term assets are being used to generate revenue, the more efficient the business the smaller this ratio should be. The adjusted revenue figure is the sum of inventory and revenue for the year as the inventory has been created by these long-term assets and will be expected to be sold in the near future. NVIDIA’s PPE/adjusted revenue ratio comes to 0.095 (997/(9714+796) which when compared to Intel’s 0.595 has a huge advantage. NVIDIA looks to be more efficient in utilising its assets and will also have less attributed to depreciation and amortization in the future. There will however be a cost to NVIDIA in that it sources out aspects of its operations that may be kept within the organisation, giving to a potentially larger item somewhere else on the financial statements. Goodwill – Is an interesting item within the balance sheet and one that needs to be scrutinised further. Goodwill is currently at $618,000,000 or 5.5% of total assets which is a relatively lower percentage than its major competitors. Although this is a small amount any unusual dealings need to be explained. In this goodwill calculation is a value of $271,000,000, 43.8% of goodwill, assigned to Icera. Icera was a corporation bought by NVIDIA back in 2011 and subsequently wound-down in 2016. I have looked through various items from 2016 through to the latest 10-K report and cannot find any impairment or write-down associated with Icera. This could be down to a knowledge gap in accounting techniques however I thought I would exclude this item from my adjusted goodwill figure of $347,000,000. My reasoning is that the income would have already been attributed to the parent organisation so would not need to be included and NVIDIA was unable to find a serious buyer, meaning there is little value or economic use of Icera. Accounts Payable – is at 6% revenue ($596,000,000) which is lower than the 8.3% 6 years ago. It has been a steady and consistent reduction which shows me NVIDIA has been very careful in adding debt to the company. A high or low accounts payable to revenue ratio can be both good or bad, too little and it might not be utilising its ability to obtain credit, too much and it increases its debt interest payment to negatively affect the competitive advantage it holds. I believe NVIDIA’s current 6% is enough considering that it holds $4,002,000,000 in cash and cash equivalents and therefore would not need the extra cash flow provided by having a large accounts payable figure. If NVIDIA did need to increase cash flow I would expect this item to increase and it is likely to be able to do this through its competitive advantage. As this item is already marked to fair value due to their short maturities and so, do not require adjusting. Accrued And Other Current Liabilities – Interestingly this line has decreased from 14.4% of revenue 6 years ago to 5.5% in the latest report. The main contributor 6 years ago was deferred income which means that the business received cash in advance of delivering the products/services. From a cash flow stand point this can be seen as good because they are receiving cash to then use and put into other opportunities. A firm needs to be careful if they have a lot of deferred income as they will still need resources to produce the goods/services. If they have used resources so that there is not enough to provide the sold goods/services then the business could get into a lot of trouble. Thankfully this figure has decreased and so too the probability of not having enough resources to deliver already sold items. It is worth noting that the need for a large amount of deferred income is less as NVIDIA’s cash and cash flow are healthy. One other way of looking at this item is that if deferred income is decreasing, it means there is less servicing/membership type income which could be worrying. As this is a small amount of revenue it is not a cause for concern like it would be for other industries. Convertible Short-Term Debt – is at a low of $15,000,000, down from $796,000,000 the year prior. In 2014 $1,500,000,000 was issued in convertible bonds. This debt issue would have been useful for NVIDIA as it would raise capital whilst keeping the cost of capital relatively low and it would have had the advantage of deferring the dilution of current stockholder equity. In this time it will have benefitted from an increase in income which will then be used to purchase shares back, partially or completely offsetting the effect from converted debt. This can be seen in the outstanding shares figure which since the issuance of the convertible debt in 2014 has gone from 595,000,000 shares outstanding to 632,000,000 in the latest report. Total Current Liabilities - has remarkably gone from $976,000,000 6 years ago to $1,153,000,000, a 2.88% increase year on year. NVIDIA has been sensible in taking on debt which is great as it means lower costs associated with debt, further increasing NVIDIA’s ability to generate larger cash flows in the future. With a current ratio of 0.125 or even an adjusted current ratio of 0.162* I feel that NVIDIA could be looking at more opportunities to put the capital to use, perhaps more into the AI and auto industry as having 63.2% of your total assets in low yield opportunities is not a way to increase durable competitive advantage. *My adjusted ratio included cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities. The reason is that this is the potential cash available to the business. Items such as accounts receivable, inventories and other prepaid expenses are the cost of doing business and would not represent cash to be used in an investment, or from what I believe it would not. Long-Term Debt – was at $1,985,000,000 which is just $2,000,000 more than the year previous. It consists of two bond issues made during the fiscal year 2017. $1,000,000,000 2.2% notes due in 2021 and $1,000,000,000 3.2% notes due in 2026. I like that NVIDIA has raised a large amount of capital whilst long-term interest rates continue to stay relatively low, especially with US Federal Reserve on a path to raising rates. It would have also been possible for NVIDIA to raise funds through an equity issue however for the sake of current stockholders it is much better they have not done this. Debt interest is also deductible which is advantageous. Prior to 2013 NVIDIA had little to no long-term debt financing however it has done it a few times over the last 5 years. Although the initial long-term debt issuance has been paid, I would not want to see a constant paying down and re-issue of long-term debt as this is going to add further costs to NVIDIA and dampen its competitive advantage. It is worth noting that NIVIDIA has been able to reduce both its long-term debt to total assets and its long-term debt to equity ratios of the last 15 years which would suggest it is attempting to reduce its long-term financing. I believe the next few years will be important to see how well they do at this. Other Long-Term Liabilities – jumped from $277,000,000 to $632,000,000. The biggest increase was due to income tax payable which increased because of the one-time transition tax implemented by Donald Trump, allowing businesses to repatriate foreign earnings at a lower than normal rate. Nothing is out of the normal with this and has been done by the majority of US companies with significant foreign earnings. Total Long-Term Debt – It is important than when looking at this line we look at multiple years and how the debt has progressed, if we do not it is likely to give an unrealistic idea as to the company’s competitive advantage. NVIDIA is a good example of this. In the fiscal year 2013 NVIDIA had a total debt to total asset ratio of 0.247 and in 2014 it went to 0.385. This is also the same with the total debt to total equity. In 2013 it was 0.328 meaning for every $1 in equity you had $0.38 in debt, and this increased to 0.627 in 2014. This was mostly due to the beginning of long-term debt financing by NVIDIA. From 2014 up to the latest report there has been a steady reduction in these ratios, something that was more of a necessity than an option. The total debt to total asset ratio for fiscal year 2018 was 0.335, a long way off its 2013 figure but much better than 2014. This also applies to the total debt to total equity ratio that is now at 0.504. These debt ratios have been on the right track, however if they start to get worse in the coming years it could be a large cause for concern and could cause long-term investors to stay away. Income Statement Revenue – has grown strong over the last 6 years at a rate of 14.63% per annum. This would suggest that there has been a steady increase in demand over this period. Year ended 2018 saw NVIDIA’s revenue jump 40.58% from the year previous, likely down to an increase in demand for GPU’s for cryptocurrency mining. This is not likely to be sustained and the cryptocurrency mining industry has already declined significantly from its peak. If revenue continued to grow at the same pace for the last 6 years it would still represent a health company. Investments and expansion into the AI industry will also open larger revenue streams. Cost of Sales – is shown as 40.07% of revenue ($3,892,000,000) however I have added research and development costs into this to arrive at cost of sales being 58.56% of revenue ($5,689,000,000). I believe that research and development should be added as this cost is used to technically create the product, without it would mean there is no product to produce. After adjusting for the new figure gross profit margins decline from 59.93% to 41.44%, an incredibly strong figure that shows NVIDIA has the competitive advantage needed to beat competitors. Remarkably, the adjusted cost of sales margin has decreased from around 75% to 59% in the last 6 years. This is likely due to increased efficiency in manufacturing and more competitive products being developed allowing NVIDIA to charge more than their competitors. Research and Development – Sits at 18.50% of revenue and over the last 6 years has been around 25-30%. This decline as a percentage of revenue is likely to be the large jump in revenue. R&D spending can increase again to move back in line with previous figures or revenue to decline. I am expecting somewhere in the middle due to NVIDIA’s products having a strong demand through various customer demographics. For comparison, Intel’s R&D spending over the same period has been around 20-21%. NVIDIA has been investing slightly more and revenues have been growing at a much faster pace, possibly down to this. Sales, General and Administrative – costs have been steady as a percentage of total revenue between 8-10%. The fact that this has been steady shows that NVIDIA is able to keep a lid on operations even with competitors being a factor. Even during the financial crisis and NVIDIA’s revenue taking a 16% fall their SG&A costs were maintained around the 10% level. Interest Income and Expenditure – what is interesting about NVIDIA is its ability to have interest income greater than interest expense. Not only do they have a low portion of debt to revenues and assets, they are generating returns on their cash. Net Income – growth has been exceptional for the last 6 years growing at 30% year on year. This growth has been from several factors such as the rise of gaming and the need for high performance chips. Cryptocurrency has been a contributing factor so the large growth too. With the cryptocurrency market fading other revenue streams will need to be explored if 30% a year is to be maintained at a minimum for the foreseeable future. Thankfully the rise of artificial intelligence will help to generate revenue for NVIDIA. With this market being in its infancy, there is huge growth potential and NVIDIA is in an advantageous position with its higher quality chips compared to competitors. Tesla, one of NVIDIA’s customers that used their chips in the autonomous driving vehicles of Tesla has decided to make its own chips. Although this is not an ideal situation, it forces NVIDIA to be more competitive with its products, otherwise it will lose poll position. NVIDIA has several manufacturers that already use its chips, so it is less of a concern. As the AI industry starts to encompass all parts of life, NVIDIA will benefit hugely. Net Income as a percentage of total revenue has seen a steady increase over the period from around 13% to 32% for year ended Jan 2018. This represents how strong NVIDIA is in being able to charge a healthy premium for its products, expertise and ability to keep expenses and poor decisions to a minimum. Earnings Per Share – came in at $4.82 per share (diluted). At current prices at $147 per share that represents a return of 3.27%. I have not adjusted the number of shares (diluted) as NVIDIA has not been issuing or buying back many shares over the last 6 years (average is 605,000), if they were significantly buying shares back I would have adjusted this number due to the EPS figure showing “phantom” profits. If I were to purchase NVIDIA I would be looking at around the $85 area and lower. This would be based on its current growth in earnings, assets, equity and debt. This price would also accommodate a slow down in growth of the economy i.e. less revenue being generated by NVIDIA.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by afeaefjruhrguaokae
2
AMAZON Fun - Predictive Modeling ExampleI thought it would be fun to post something to illustrate how my predictive modeling systems can help to identify and predict future price swings/sizes and opportunities. This AMZN chart shows predictive modeling targets and dates going out about 30 days. This model was generated by one of my most advanced modeling tools. It maps the technical and price DNA of the markets and learns from these DNA markers. The resulting analysis is that I can ask it to identify key future price points at any point in time and can derive future price objectives going forward by 15 to 20+ price bars (days, weeks, months or quarters). Below, I have included the final analysis of this AMZN trigger. The trigger bar originated on 9/10/2018. Therefore, these forward predictive levels originated over 90 days ago and continue out till the end of Jan 2019. Near the bottom of this data, you'll see the UPPER and LOWER normalized price ranges shown as +5, +10, +15 & +20 bars into the future. Above that, you'll see the PRICE PROP level which is the Probability factor for positive or negative price targets. Lets see how this plays out over the next 30+ days to see how accurate these triggers really are. Have run. It looks like Amazon will move up nearly $200, then stall and fall about $100, then move about $150~200 higher again before the end of Jan 2019. Neg Price Prop : 90.62515460246442 Neg Price Prop : 84.5705147861916 Neg Price Prop : 97.07041364310149 Neg Price Prop : 93.9460097128451 Neg Price Prop : 87.79388061236992 Neg Price Prop : 93.89682106419978 Neg Price Prop : 96.94852974148039 Neg Price Prop : 96.94861319029661 Neg Price Prop : 96.94856550493233 Neg Price Prop : 93.82355357818253 Neg Price Prop : 87.57357742583845 Neg Price Prop : 87.57357742002347 Neg Price Prop : 75.07352974211128 Neg Price Prop : 75.0491156795999 Neg Price Prop : 75.00028754891565 Neg Price Prop : 75.00028754907481 Neg Price Prop : 50.26884144531407 Pos Price Prop : 74.33898388053338 Neg Price Prop : 50.6396312833286 Neutral Price Prop : 0 0 9/10 0:0 Found Record = 277.94 350.70 350.70 423.50 || -285.09 -550.19 -550.19 -550.19 9/10 0:0 ------ = 103.71 108.56 108.91 109.37 || -221.89 -441.59 -499.83 -511.13 9/10 0:0 ------ = 19.46 17.52
NASDAQ:AMZN
by BradMatheny
Netflix Still Has Room To FallDespite a 36% dive, $NFLX can fall another 29% and still post a small gain for the year. Given rising volatility and a broad-market correction, a short position on Netflix could be a good idea. A bearish strangle with expirations on DEC21 is what I'm currently holding. The possibility for an end of year rally is still there (hence using a strangle for protection if things go awry), but the probability of that rally grows increasingly slim - particularly within the FAANGs as a correction is far past due.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by UnknownUnicorn2997486
Google Enters Bear Market Territory$GOOG has now dropped over 20% since its July high, bringing the stock into bear market territory for the first time in 7 years -- since August 2011 (both time periods marked on chart.) I remain bearish on Google for the remainder of 2018. Macroeconomic conditions and trade tension combined with an over valued market and much needed correction in the technology sector are making an end of year rally for U.S. equities seem increasingly unlikely.
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by UnknownUnicorn2997486