AMAZON Targeting $115 this month. Huge 1W bullish divergenceAmazon Inc (AMAZON) is on a strong rebound since the November 09 low, following the rest of the market in the aftermath of the big drop on the monthly CPI. The first and obvious short-term target is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and on the medium-term the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
The recent low was made following the 1D MA50/100 Bearish Cross and last time that pattern emerged was on January 21 2022, which preceded the Jan 24 Low. We have plotted that fractal on today's price action since the August 16 High and it matches fairly well. As you see a potential end of November High can play out with a 1D MA100 test nicely around $115.00.
Obviously the long-term target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and as long as the huge bullish divergence on the 1W RSI holds, being within a Channel Up (Higher Highs and Higher Lows) as opposed to the price action (Lower Highs and Lower Lows), we can break this fractal sooner than expected. Only a break above the November 19 2021 Lower Highs can restore the long-term bullish trend.
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Technologystocks
US100 14400 is a bullish targetThe Inverse Head & Shoulders has completed. There will be loads of stops under the right shoulder and the head.
But for now, we have to assume that the pattern is going to play out. In my other research, I detail why fundamentally the Nasdaq should go higher but you would have to dig around and find it on the internet because I am not allowed to tell you where it may be. The reason I put it on a different platform is that I can't upload the charts of my research here! The nut of the thesis is that there is still a lot of money flowing into the markets from the US government.
Targets for a (i)H&S is x2 the distance from the head to the neckline, projected in the direction of the breakout.
Just be on the lookout for a fundamental reason why the algos reverse the price action and attack those stops under the RHS and Head
11/8/22 ATENA10 Networks ( NYSE:ATEN )
Sector: Technology Services (Information Technology)
Market Capitalization: $1.352B
Current Price: $19.03
Breakout price: $19.10
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $18.20-$16.80
Price Target: $23.00-$23.50
Estimated Duration to Target: 107-116d
Contract of Interest: $ATEN 2/17/23 20c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.45/contract
bearish rounding top on Tesla forming , short setupcurrently in a 4th way up , however there is a bear flag forming I see. Tesla needs to get over $215, to possibly invalidate the bearish sentiment. Even still, it would also have to breakout above trendline resistances near 220-225. That might be a difficult task. There is also B leg of the previous cypher pattern, that will act as a resistances for wave 5. I'm looking for a short entry above $215.00, if price action fails to get above this level. I'm looking for a quick breakdown below $200... Monitoring for short set up
AVGO: Head and Shoulders?Broadcom
Intraday - We look to Buy at 457.26 (stop at 435.69)
A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders is forming. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. The measured move target is 512.00. Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 510.99 and 530.00
Resistance: 512.00 / 574.00 / 670.00
Support: 450.00 / 350.00 / 260.00
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AMD is a strong short-term BuyAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) has been practically consolidating since the October 13 Low. As the long-term trend has been bearish within a Channel Down pattern since the November 30 2021 Market High, the current consolidation following the rebound on the (dashed) Lower Low (diverging) trend-line can be seen as an Accumulation Phase preparing for the next bullish leg to the top of the Channel.
As you see all previous legs within the Channel Down have been following a certain pattern. After a (near) 30.00 1D RSI reading, and a MACD Bullish Cross, the price rebounds to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. That is currently at 85.68 buy is outside the Channel Down, so we will settle for a Target within 73.50 - 77.50. Only a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) can be considered a long-term trend change to bullish.
See how the 1D MACD prints Higher Highs and each break above the Pivot is larger. More or less this is consistent with the price breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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US10Y Bond Yield Simple Chart AnalysisOn the other hand, 10Y bond supported & rebound to reattempt the previous high fall 4.3 area. Once break, 5.2 will be the next target.
This will be very bad for tech sector if this 10Y bond continue to rise. Can for see investor that invest into stock market will cash everything out & put into safe heaven place.
US100 - Nasdaq - Long IdeaAt the end of last week the Nasdaq, flushed through some stops and had a bearish close. For the bears, they are feeling trapped as there was no follow-through to the downside.
In fact the snap back signalled a bullish reversal.
Today we have broken higher out of the opening range and the initial balance. We're just waiting for that pop to confirm that today is the start of a push higher.
NASDAQ US100 Long IdeaLooks like the last day or so has produced a bullish triangle in the Nasdaq.
We're just waiting for confirmation of a breakout
Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September
Currently our volatility for Nasdaq is at 4.55%, increasing from 4.03% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 15.3% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 11820
BOT 10905
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 12140 is going to be touched
- There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week 11215 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 3.13% for bull candles and 366% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
9/11/22 NFLXNetflix, Inc ( NASDAQ:NFLX )
Sector: Technology Services (Internet Software/Services)
Market Capitalization: $103.870B
Current Price: $233.57
Breakout price trigger: $236.60
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $232.30-$211.85
Price Target: $246.60-$250.60 (1st), $298.20-$304.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 13-15d (1st), 54-57d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $NFLX 9/23/22 235c, $NFLX 11/18/22 240c
Trade price as of publish date: $8.00/contract, $20.95/contract
FTNT Rolling LowerFortinet is a big player in cybersecurity with strong revenue growth and rapidly growing demand for its services. In the very Long-term, Fortinet should do well.
However, FTNT's technicals are signaling weakness on a more medium-term basis. The last year of FTNT price action has led to a rounded top formation. One could also argue that Fortinet shows signs of a head and shoulders pattern during the aforementioned period. Fortinet as of the past 7 months is now trading in a downward channel. The recent low recorded last week of 47.5 helps to confirm the continuation of bearishness in future trading. MACD on monthly/weekly/daily all are signaling further pain. The Weekly MACD is especially bearish, currently residing at its most negative level in FTNT's history.
Global market conditions are poor, and seemingly getting worse. Unfortunately, history has taught us that during periods of slowed economic activity amid monetary tightening great companies often sell off alongside their less successful peers (although not to the same degree).
To conclude: FTNT is experiencing a troubling technical outlook combined with a slowing economy/beaten-down consumer, I do not believe FTNT will be able to stay at such a high valuation with a p/e of 60, despite continued high demand. In the near term, I am looking for a move to 44.3 where the 50% fib retracement level sits. Looking further out, I expect a move down to the 30.2-27.1 range which has been an area of previous strong support as well as a 78.6% fib level. From there a rebound or consolidation period for Fortinet is likely.
As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
AMAZON formed a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. Accumulation ahead.It's been only 1.5 month since our long-term buy call on Amazon (AMZN):
The price rose aggressively after weeks of accumulation within the 1W MA200/300 and as we projected broke out hitting almost the first important long-term Resistance (1W MA50). On August 16 the price was rejected exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the point of rejection on the previous Lower High (March 29) of this 2022 correction phase.
The stock rose almost +45% from its June 14 Low, so profit taking was expected. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level broke and the price is just above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The former crossed today above the latter forming a technical Bullish Cross, the first such formation since December 03 2021. That was a far from ideal pattern as it broke the uptrend's Higher Lows trend-line and basically was at the start of the 2022 correction phase.
This time the Higher Lows trend-line is much lower (currently around $114.40) so on the medium-term we remain on a downtrend, until the 1W MA50 and Lower Highs Zone break. However, it is the first time we have such a strong and long uptrend on the 1W RSI, with its Higher Lows trend-line still intact.
Practically, as long as the 1D MA50/100 hold, we can expect a re-test of the 1D MA200. If they break, there is still a chance of finding Support on the 0.618 Fib. Further selling can be done below the Higher Lows trend-line.
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NASDAQ retracement ONThe NASDAQ over-extended its upside target and the later part of last week stalled and started to retrace. Nothing exciting here as it was expected for weeks. lol
So the NASDAQ Futures Weekly chart how a (breakout) failure of the 55EMA, and somewhat of a bearish reversal top candlestick pattern in the likes of a Dark Cloud Cover of sorts, or two-thirds of a Three Inside Down. Both suggest that the upcoming week would more likely be a down week. Notably, this past week completes the patterns symmetry of the NASDAQ fall magnitudes, as mentioned in previous earlier post.
The Daily chart shows the completed trend reversal pattern (wave 1-5) of a series of higher lows and higher highs. And now, a retracement is in order, in a somewhat expected fashion. MACD and RPM both clearly indicate the retracement. This drawback should be looking for the 13K (or rather 12,900) support. A weaker market is more likely to bring it down to 12,000 or lower instead... perhaps later in September.
I am in two minds at this point and here is why...
The Daily chart appears to have turned around the trend into a bullish recovery. BUT, the weekly chart is in need of a higher low, which may have a 2000 point range at least. The two things that bugs me bad is the failure of the weekly 55EMA, and the distance from breaking above 14,400 for a weekly bullish clearance. Overall, the weekly chart is not ready (yet) to launch the next bull trend despite having pretty decent technical indicators.
Stay safe and well... be cautious as volatility will spike!
TSLA SHORTNASDAQ:TSLA
On the 4H Chart, TSLA is at the resistance of the SEll orders @ $ 924 with a Doji Candle.
TSLA is looking to reverse the trend and head down to 860 or beyond to 720.
Terminal RSI divergence hints at the reversal as does the increasing Choppiness Index.
A stop loss set at $1.00 above today's high seems reasonable and yields a low risk
for the expected reward.
What option would you use to trade a put to address this idea?
8/10/22 ZSZscaler Inc ( NASDAQ:ZS )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $23.182B
Current Price: $180.41
Breakout Price: $186.75
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $169.90-$144.00
Price Target: $218.00-$224.00 (1st)
Estimated Duration to Target: 54-57d
Contract of Interest: $ZS 10/21/22 180c
Trade price as of publish date: $21.25/contract
NASDAQ near upside targetThe NASDAQ just about reached the weekly 55EMA and retraced slightly . It cleared the 13K resistance and 13.2K resistance as well. Still bullish in the weekly technical indicators.
The daily chart breaks down the week, with a early week pull back and some volatility and a weak retest of the gap; and then the mid-week bullish spike to break 13K. These were expected last weekend in the previous post. Similarly, the technical indicators were waning in acceleration and this is observed again in the last week. What makes it a little uncomfortable is the Friday candle... one that is suggesting indecision. So, I would start being cautious really.
Reading two things now: a pop up spike to about 13,500, and then some retracement should set in.
8/3/22 CFLTConfluent, Inc. ( NASDAQ:CFLT )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $8.079B
Current Price: $29.02
Breakout Price: $31.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $27.65-$19.45
Price Target: $33.50-$36.30 (1st), $45.10-$49.20 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 26-29d, 73-76d
Contract of Interest: $CFLT 8/19/22 30c, $CFLT 10/21/22 35c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.55/contract, $2.60/contract
NASDAQ Bullish firm; to test 13KAs heads up weeks ago, now it is clear that the consequent market action is bullish.
The weekly chart clearly showed the consolidation in June, and the robust breakout in July, with a strong bullish looking candle (nice lower tail and close very near at the top) to end the week. Technical indicators are aligned with momentum.
13K resistance should be tested, and appears likely to break.
The daily chart has a lot more detail, and takeaways too...
Last weekend, it was expected that " an early to mid week retracement, and then a possible uptick. "
Not only was it perfect, the uptick was exceeded!
Firstly, the mid-week move was a bit of an unusual response to the FOMC raising rates by 75bp. Then the momentum followed through, and the week ended with a significant gap up - Gap & run style, stopping just at the 13K resistance. Thursday's move completed the trend reversal pattern of a series of Higher High (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) denoted by the yellow lines through point 1 to point 5. Upon breaking above the high at point 3, that was pretty much the completion of the trend reversal.
Now, clearly bullish and all, we do not go in all guns blazing, and here is why:
There is a clear and immediate 13K resistance, and the weekend brings a possibility of a Monday retest of the gap. Although expected that the retracements should be shallow, the daily RPM is indicating a very much reduced rate of acceleration. Small signs like these are like cracks in the wall.
Oh, btw... Have you seen the Monthly chart? It is so beautifully crafted with a huge Marubozu type candle engulfing a significantly large bearish June candle. This suggests three things:
1. Next couple of (2, maybe if we lucky 3) months are likely to be bullish;
2. The bear trend is broken; and
3. More importantly, the range of the (last 2) monthly candles suggest a significant range of volatility ahead
And so, towards the upside target we go!
NASDAQ Ka-Boing!Ok, so we got the NASDAQ bounce for the week as outlined in the previous post. How now, brown cow?
The weekly chart now has bullish crossovers in the technical indicators, and clearly a breakout of the consolidation range between 11,200 to 12,200. Mildly and cautiously bullish for the weekly chart,
The daily chart shows that the week ended lower after clocking an intraday high that is also the week's high. The candlestick is actually bearish, and the daily technicals appear a bit winded. This collectively may result in an early to mid week retracement, and then a possible uptick.
Note that the FOMC meeting is on 26-27 July, so aligned that the early week would be jittery and later in the week sees a stronger move.
Either way, be like water, my friends...
7/10/22 DDOGDatadog, Inc. ( NASDAQ:DDOG )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $34.113B
Current Price: $108.29
Breakout price: $110.90
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $103.80-$90.40
Price Target: $116.60-$118.70 (1st), $147.20-$149.90 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 48-52d (1st), 149-157d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $DDOG 8/19/22 115c, $DDOG 12/16/22 110c
Trade price as of publish date: $9.20/contract, $20.30/contract