Get started

Technologystocks

NVDIA consolidating above its 4H MA200. Long-term target $445.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) broke and closed above its 4H MA200 (green trend-line) last Thursday and in a surprising display of bullish strength, it has managed to hold it as a Support and consolidate. That was the first series of 1D candle closings above the 4H MA200 since January 14. If this fails and the stock closes 2 or more 1D candles below the 4H MA200, we expect a pull-back to the big support cluster provided by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This has been the ultimate long-term Support Zone and buy level since September 2019. At the same time, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), has turned sideways, and is the medium-term Support level. The first target is the $346 All Time High and the long-term one is the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at $445. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by TradingShot
1
TESLA on a major bullish break-out. Possible $1500 target in Q3.Tesla (TSLA) broke this week above the All Time High (ATH) Lower Highs trend-line, giving a strong bullish signal. The pattern is replicating the break-out sequence of June 2021. In fact the whole Peak-Correction Cycle of January - June 2021 is identical to that of November 2021 - March 2022 (so far). As this 1D chart shows, both patterns bottomed below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the RSI Double Bottoming around the 30.00 reading. What followed in July - September 2021 after the Lower Highs bullish break-out, was a slow Channel Up that ended violently with a parabolic rally just above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level. That level is at $1650 from the recent market bottom so we are setting a target zone within $1500 - $1650 by the end of Q3. * BONUS MATERIAL * See how well another tech giant, Apple, is performing after our March 11 buy call exactly on the market bottom: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TradingShot
Growth vs. Value: Skating to Where the Puck Will BeHockey legend Wayne Gretsky famously said: "Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." This sometimes applies in investing and trading. Towards what object have investors been skating, figuratively speaking? Currently, financial media, fund managers, and commentators have been emphasizing the opportunities in value over growth for several months. And for good reason: Energy, a value / cyclical sector unloved for about a decade, has outperformed every other sector this year by a huge margin. It has risen by approximately 20.5% since January 1, 2022. Even it's uptrend channel could not contain it (although it looks to be consolidating at the moment or perhaps mean-reverting). Increasingly, market participants have been "skating" towards value areas and away from growth for over a year now, as anyone who has been burned by long trades in tech / disruptive innovation knows. For example, a spread chart (also called a ratio chart) of ARKK/SPY shows just how dramatically growth has struggled. ARKK is a well-known US ETF containing high-beta stocks typically categorized as disruptive-innovation stocks, i.e., high growth names. This chart evidences just how much growth has struggled vs. the S&P 500. Notice, though, how this spread chart shows how close to major, long-term support the ratio has moved. Examples abound of high-growth names having been crushed in powerful bear markets in those names. Some of them are even top names with innovative products and services and an impressive record of earnings / sales growth: Square ( NYSE:SQ ) has declined about -68% from all-time highs, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) fell about -81% from its high to its low in late January 2022, and ( Roku ) dropped about 78% from its peaks. Even large cap tech not gone unscathed: Facebook NASDAQ:FB suffered a nearly -50% decline after a huge earnings / guidance disappointment. But in general, large-cap tech has been the exception in growth until the selloff this year. While growth / tech in general has struggled for months, large-cap tech names such as GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA have outperformed. Even AMZN's sideways move for about a year should be considered outperformance relative to other high-growth names as shown by the ARKK chart above: see the chart below, which is a relative chart of AMZN vs. ARKK, revealing that even with AMZN's lengthy sideways move, it has dramatically outperformed growth / tech names more generally. Markets are in constant flux. So often, just when the little people (retail traders like me) take notice of a powerful new trend or outperformance, it ends. So I'm trying to watch for where markets are moving rather than focusing on where they are. In short, is growth bottoming out relative to value? Here are a few charts to consider. 1. The main weekly chart above (also copied below) is a spread chart showing the ratio of NASDAQ:IJT (small-cap growth) vs. small cap value. Notice how close to major long-term up trendline support the ratio has moved. And the weekly ratio is also right at support at March 2021 and May-June 2021 lows. The RSI for this relative chart also shows that it's oversold to 33.65, a level that only appears in multi-month (and often multi-year) intervals. Even the two RSI lows in 1H 2021 occurred 2 months apart, but this is the exception looking back longer term. 2. Large-cap growth is right at support at a long-term uptrend line. See the weekly spread chart of the ratio between XLK/SPY. AMEX:XLK is a US ETF that is heavily weighted towards large-cap tech. 3. Equal-weighted growth vs. equal-weighted tech RYG/RPV is also very close to long-term upward trendline support. 4. Interest rates are nearing long-term downtrend channel resistance—at the upper line (the actual downtrend line). Interest rates have soared powerfully since mid-2020, and the Federal Reserve has hawkishly signaled coming rate hikes, and market participants have behaved as though rates will keep on going to the moon—by selling tech / growth, which struggle when rates rise b/c of discounting of future cash flows used to value such names. The viewpoint that rates could turn around in the near future seems radical, contrarian and unreasonable. But consider this chart below. Could rates turn around just after a large move just after millions of market participants have been flocking towards value names that outperform in rising-rate environments? Some well-known experts have already taken this view. www.cnbc.com It seems priced into the market right now that the 10-year yield could continue rising, that the interest rates could even breakout higher above long-term downtrend resistance, and that the Fed is likely behind the curve in controlling inflation. It seems consensus that value could continue to outperform long-term, and that growth could break even long-term support levels and continue to plummet. But if this is priced into the market, shouldn't one consider buying what's already priced in? Especially because maybe what is priced into the market will not last. Thinking about where the "puck is going to be" may suggest that tech / growth is making a multi-month or multi-year low or that interest rates are going to pullback in the next few months, allowing tech to thrive again.
NASDAQ:IJT
by SquishTrade
4
STX Set For A Quick Jump Next Week?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on March 11, 2022 with a closing price of 87.33. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 88.71 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 7.129% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.993% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 12.625% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 2 trading bars; half occur within 7 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 18 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:STXLong
by StockSignaler
APPLE can hit $185.00 in 3 months. 1D MA200 in focus.I haven't made an analysis publicly on Apple since my September 14 2021 idea: It was when I first made public of the long-term Channel Up it was trading in and warned about a correction towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the stocks major Support since the COVID crash of March 2020. Eventually the pattern proved to be a success, as the price corrected and then upon testing the 1D CCI Support Zone, it rebounded above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension target. Right now AAPL has been correcting since January 04 High. On February 24 it almost hit the 1D MA200 again as well as the CCI Buy level, but the rebound was rejected near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and now is again near the MA200. We can see even in corrections, that the CCI Buy Zone can give short-term buy entries. The key here is for the price to break above the 1D MA50, as in previous corrections that was the start of the new uptrend. The 1D MA50/ MA100 (green trend-line) bearish cross, hasn't affected the uptrend's chances before, in fact when it happened the price was already in rise mode. It appears that the next 1D MA200 contact would be the next long-term Buy Signal for Apple, unless of course the 1D MA50 breaks first. Either way, the CCI has already give a Buy Signal, and for more than 1.5 year, it has been 100% accurate. The 2.0 Fibonacci extension based on the last low is just over $185.00 and that is our long-term target on AAPL. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by TradingShot
8
NASDAQ technical rebound in playAs projected (in previous idea post), the NASDAQ futures spiked down to (almost) 13K and then bounced immediately. This happened on Thursday after the open initiation of the Russia-Ukraine global event. The following day continued the recovery rally. The Weekly candlestick is now very bullish looking as there formed an intraweek ultra long tail of almost 1K index points. While technicals point to a bearish scenario overall, the NASDAQ was briefly in bear correction territory but recovered. This suggest bullishness. The Daily candlestick pattern is also rather bullish, with a similar intraday long tail and a near marubozu body engulfing, followed through by another bullish candle that closed the day (and week) at the top. The MACD has a bullish divergence that is just turning upwards in support. Fractal bullishness here. The next couple of weeks in March are indicated to be bullish, through to 14.5K, and testing 15.5K. Whether the bullish effort is sustainable through past March remains to be seen. I am optimistic for the NASDAQ into March, but weary as March wanes into April...
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ under the microscopeWas just looking at the NASDAQ futures and the price actions over the market holiday yesterday amidst the hype and concerns over Russia-Ukraine issues. In the NQ1! 4H chart, recent multiple failures of the 55EMA (4H and Daily) technically projected downside for the NASDAQ (amongst other equity indexes). There appears to be a cyclical fear pattern over the last month, and in this current cycle, it should peak down today. Am expecting a spike down type of peak, that tests the support, breaks it somewhat and then a likely rebound ensues (as previously posted that NQ1! should be testing support). That's what the technicals are hinting to me anyways. There is a near support, but I am looking at possible spike down to 13,000 in the coming days. Longer term still looks volatile, and longer term target is still lower for now. Absolutely plausible for a major DCB and then a massive turn of events. I do have a date in mind though... 10 MAY 2022. Watch that date! Stay safe and well!!!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
7
Spotify exploding back higher. My expectations.Hi everyone, Let's take a look at current price action of NYSE:SPOT . The stock is up 12% on the day with the highest volume in a while. Price is currently at 193 . The zone of 190-214 is a no man's land. Price has cut through this zone in the past, both on the way up and down. That's due to thin volume profile structure. We take 196 , we go higher fast, up to next solid supply zone of 215-220 . Then I expect a consolidation for a while between 220 and 244 . Ultimately price should gravitate towards the POC of the last 2 years at 266 . Beware of the earnings call in 2 days! Today might be one of those pre-earnings pumps. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NYSE:SPOTLong
by AyBe_Invest
Twitter is at the crossroads. Turn up or die.Hi everyone, Today we are taking a look at NYSE:TWTR stock. This poor bird has been flying down at an astonishing rate. However, unlike most young tech companies, this bad boy has been to hell and back again. NYSE:TWTR was scraping the bottom during 2016-2017 and managed to recover eventually. Now we are in the steep downward channel. If you zoom out you will see that this week we entered HVN, which is around 31-34 zone. This is the second highest volume zone in the history of Twitter trading. Plus, we bounced from the support on the weekly at 32 and this week saw higher overall volume than in the previous down weeks. Conclusion: Twitter stock price is looking very attractive right now. I have no active position, but I will buy some shares at the end of day. Of course if we don't go limit down for some mysterious reason. Let me know what you think of Twitter long. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by AyBe_Invest
Nvidia stock is falling hard. What's the turnaround point?Hi everyone, This time we are analyzing yet another beat-down tech stock NASDAQ:NVDA . Unlike most other tech stocks, Nvidia is a giant. But even giants fall. The analysis: We can see exactly the same market structure I reviewed in my Cloudflare idea: When Nvidia stock went parabolicly up in October-November 2021, it created poor thin volume profile. These thin areas not only tend to be revisited, but they also provide no support , when the stock is falling. Therefore, we fall to the next high volume zone, which is 220-226 . Now we are at 233 and the structure is almost repaired. 230 is the next support zone. However, it did not see that much volume in the past. Therefore, I expect the price to return to 220s and catch a bid there. Please let me know what you think of Nvidia stock currently. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by AyBe_Invest
4
Unity stock is on sale...time to Unite and buy!Hi everyone, Wow, what a start of the year! Stock market is beaten up badly. But you know what that means for an intelligent investor. Many great opportUNITYies to buy favorite stocks at discounts. Today we are revising my NYSE:U stock analysis. The stock is currently down more than 50% from the Nov tops (big ooph). We have just entered the highest volume zone, established last year. And we are rapidly approaching the Golden buy zone. All indicators point at a magical number of 100 . Just look at the chart! All stars allign perfectly at a price zone of 100 . POC, HVN, 2 long-term support lines, all point to 100 . I bet algos know about that zone too. So there are LOTS of resting buy orders. Therefore, I will add massively to my NYSE:U holdings at the next open. Let me know if you like this stock. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NYSE:ULong
by AyBe_Invest
The market is overly complacent about interest rate riskMarkets Have Been Celebrating No Corporate Tax Hike Stocks have been marching higher as the risk of a near-term corporate tax hike evaporated due to hard bargaining by centrist Democrats Joe Manchin and Kristen Sinema. Prediction markets are now putting the odds of no corporate tax hike at about 88%: www.predictit.org In fact, the single largest line item in the Build Back Better Act is actually a large tax *cut* which disproportionately benefits the highest earners. That's certainly a bullish development for markets, because it means more billionaire money chasing stocks. But They've Been Ignoring the Risk That Interest Rates Will Rise I think markets are ignoring interest rate risk, though. The passage of the Build Back Better act means that the US Treasury will be issuing a lot more treasury bonds over the next few years in order to fund new spending, and it will be doing so at a time when the Federal Reserve is tapering its bond-buying program. That means that private investors will have to absorb that over-supply of treasuries. And private investors are likely to demand higher interest rates than the Federal Reserve would. In other words, a supply-and-demand shock in the bond market could be about to send interest rates up. Bonds May Have Just Flashed a Warning Sign Today TLT (a major treasury bond ETF) made a big bearish engulfing candle today and closed below the 200-day EMA. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, so rising rates = falling bonds.) The move came after the Fed's announcement that it will cut bond-buying in half this month and stop bond-buying altogether by mid-next year. I bought a TLT put yesterday and took profit on it today at the 200-day EMA for a 30% gain, but TLT actually continued downward and ended the day below the 200-day. It still has support from the 20-day EMA, so the question tomorrow is whether the 20-day will hold. If TLT doesn't hold support at the 20-day, then I think we're likely to see tech and pharma stocks follow it down. We could well be at the beginning of a significant correction for both bonds and stocks. Rising rates would be bad for growth companies, and especially bad for cash-poor companies that finance their growth through debt. (Pharmaceuticals, for instance, could be especially hard-hit.) Rising interest rates make it harder for those companies to get financing. The Nasdaq index has recently been selling off whenever rates rise (and bonds fall). Rising rates are better for banks than for tech, and could lead to outperformance by XLF. Smart Money Has Been Going Short Bonds for Months For the last couple months, a lot of smart money has been going short bonds on the expectation that bond rates will rise and bonds will fall. Ordinarily I'd hesitate to pile into such a crowded trade, but sometimes the crowd is right. The put/call ratio on TLT is 1.7, a big bearish bet. And an indirect way to be short bonds is to be short tech. The put/call ratio on the tech-heavy QQQ right now is an even more bearish 2.0. If you have heavy long exposure, especially to tech and growth, now is probably a good time to put some hedges on. Markets Have Been Celebrating No Corporate Tax Hike Stocks have been marching higher as the risk of a near-term corporate tax hike evaporated due to hard bargaining by centrist Democrats. In fact, the single largest line item in the Build Back Better Act is actually a large tax *cut* which disproportionately benefits the highest earners. That's certainly a bullish development for markets, because it means more billionaire money chasing stocks. But They've Been Ignoring the Risk That Interest Rates Will Rise I think markets are ignoring interest rate risk, though. The passage of the Build Back Better act means that the US Treasury will be issuing a lot more treasury bonds over the next few years in order to fund new spending, and it will be doing so at a time when the Federal Reserve is tapering its bond-buying program. That means that private investors will have to absorb that over-supply of treasuries, and they are likely to demand higher interest rates than the Federal Reserve would. A supply-and-demand shock in the bond market could be about to send interest rates up. Bonds May Have Just Flashed a Warning Sign Today TLT (a major treasury bond ETF) made a big bearish engulfing candle today and closed below the 200-day EMA. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, so rising rates = falling bonds.) The move came after the Fed's announcement that it will cut bond-buying in half this month and stop bond-buying altogether by mid-next year. I had bought a TLT put yesterday and took profit on it today at the 200-day EMA for a 30% gain, but TLT actually continued downward and ended the day below the 200-day. It still has support from the 20-day EMA, so the question tomorrow is whether the 20-day will hold. If TLT doesn't hold support at the 20-day, then I think we're likely to see tech and pharma stocks follow it down. We could well be at the beginning of a significant correction for both bonds and stocks. Rising rates would be bad for growth companies, and especially bad for cash-poor companies that finance their growth through debt. (Pharmaceuticals, for instance, could be especially hard-hit.) Rising interest rates make it harder for those companies to get financing. The Nasdaq index has recently been selling off whenever rates rise (and bonds fall). Rising rates are better for banks than for tech, and could lead to outperformance by XLF. Smart Money Has Been Going Short Bonds for Months For the last couple months, a lot of smart money has been going short bonds on the expectation that bond rates will rise. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, meaning that rising rates cause prices to go down.) Ordinarily I'd hesitate to pile into such a crowded trade, but sometimes the crowd is right. The put/call ratio on TLT is 1.7, a big bearish bet. And an indirect way to be short bonds is to be short tech. The put/call ratio on the tech-heavy QQQ right now is an even more bearish 2.0. Inflation Numbers Will Determine Where We Go from Here FOMC futures are currently forecasting that the Fed will hike rates 2-3 times by the end of next year, with a small chance of 4 rate hikes. As But as John Cochrane argues, FOMC futures have historically tended to be too hawkish: johnhcochrane.blogspot.com There's a lot of political incentive in Washington, D.C. to keep rates low, so the Fed almost certainly won't raise rates until inflation forces their hand. (Raising rates is primarily a tool to control inflation.) So keep an eye on the inflation numbers as we go forward from here. Inflation over the past decade has tended undershoot expectations, and many economists still believe that the current bout of inflation will prove to be transitory. So it may well turn out that we just get one or two rate hikes, and then inflation stabilizes and everything returns to normal. For now, I am expecting a short-term correction in both bonds and stocks, but a stabilization in the medium term. Shipping prices have been falling: And commodities prices look like they may start to come down as well: Hopefully these are early signs that inflation will be transitory after all. But the last reading on the Citi Inflation Surprise Index was an all-time high, so beware. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it's that there's definitely a limit to how far and fast we can push deficit spending before inflation kicks in. Pandemic deficit spending in 2020 caused high inflation in 2021. The question now is whether inflation will run away or normalize. This is an unprecedented situation, so nobody really knows. But a lot will depend on whether the Fed and Congress can practice some fiscal discipline, or at least convince markets that they will.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
15