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Spotify exploding back higher. My expectations.Hi everyone, Let's take a look at current price action of NYSE:SPOT . The stock is up 12% on the day with the highest volume in a while. Price is currently at 193 . The zone of 190-214 is a no man's land. Price has cut through this zone in the past, both on the way up and down. That's due to thin volume profile structure. We take 196 , we go higher fast, up to next solid supply zone of 215-220 . Then I expect a consolidation for a while between 220 and 244 . Ultimately price should gravitate towards the POC of the last 2 years at 266 . Beware of the earnings call in 2 days! Today might be one of those pre-earnings pumps. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NYSE:SPOTLong
by AyBe_Invest
Twitter is at the crossroads. Turn up or die.Hi everyone, Today we are taking a look at NYSE:TWTR stock. This poor bird has been flying down at an astonishing rate. However, unlike most young tech companies, this bad boy has been to hell and back again. NYSE:TWTR was scraping the bottom during 2016-2017 and managed to recover eventually. Now we are in the steep downward channel. If you zoom out you will see that this week we entered HVN, which is around 31-34 zone. This is the second highest volume zone in the history of Twitter trading. Plus, we bounced from the support on the weekly at 32 and this week saw higher overall volume than in the previous down weeks. Conclusion: Twitter stock price is looking very attractive right now. I have no active position, but I will buy some shares at the end of day. Of course if we don't go limit down for some mysterious reason. Let me know what you think of Twitter long. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by AyBe_Invest
Nvidia stock is falling hard. What's the turnaround point?Hi everyone, This time we are analyzing yet another beat-down tech stock NASDAQ:NVDA . Unlike most other tech stocks, Nvidia is a giant. But even giants fall. The analysis: We can see exactly the same market structure I reviewed in my Cloudflare idea: When Nvidia stock went parabolicly up in October-November 2021, it created poor thin volume profile. These thin areas not only tend to be revisited, but they also provide no support , when the stock is falling. Therefore, we fall to the next high volume zone, which is 220-226 . Now we are at 233 and the structure is almost repaired. 230 is the next support zone. However, it did not see that much volume in the past. Therefore, I expect the price to return to 220s and catch a bid there. Please let me know what you think of Nvidia stock currently. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by AyBe_Invest
4
Unity stock is on sale...time to Unite and buy!Hi everyone, Wow, what a start of the year! Stock market is beaten up badly. But you know what that means for an intelligent investor. Many great opportUNITYies to buy favorite stocks at discounts. Today we are revising my NYSE:U stock analysis. The stock is currently down more than 50% from the Nov tops (big ooph). We have just entered the highest volume zone, established last year. And we are rapidly approaching the Golden buy zone. All indicators point at a magical number of 100 . Just look at the chart! All stars allign perfectly at a price zone of 100 . POC, HVN, 2 long-term support lines, all point to 100 . I bet algos know about that zone too. So there are LOTS of resting buy orders. Therefore, I will add massively to my NYSE:U holdings at the next open. Let me know if you like this stock. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NYSE:ULong
by AyBe_Invest
The market is overly complacent about interest rate riskMarkets Have Been Celebrating No Corporate Tax Hike Stocks have been marching higher as the risk of a near-term corporate tax hike evaporated due to hard bargaining by centrist Democrats Joe Manchin and Kristen Sinema. Prediction markets are now putting the odds of no corporate tax hike at about 88%: www.predictit.org In fact, the single largest line item in the Build Back Better Act is actually a large tax *cut* which disproportionately benefits the highest earners. That's certainly a bullish development for markets, because it means more billionaire money chasing stocks. But They've Been Ignoring the Risk That Interest Rates Will Rise I think markets are ignoring interest rate risk, though. The passage of the Build Back Better act means that the US Treasury will be issuing a lot more treasury bonds over the next few years in order to fund new spending, and it will be doing so at a time when the Federal Reserve is tapering its bond-buying program. That means that private investors will have to absorb that over-supply of treasuries. And private investors are likely to demand higher interest rates than the Federal Reserve would. In other words, a supply-and-demand shock in the bond market could be about to send interest rates up. Bonds May Have Just Flashed a Warning Sign Today TLT (a major treasury bond ETF) made a big bearish engulfing candle today and closed below the 200-day EMA. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, so rising rates = falling bonds.) The move came after the Fed's announcement that it will cut bond-buying in half this month and stop bond-buying altogether by mid-next year. I bought a TLT put yesterday and took profit on it today at the 200-day EMA for a 30% gain, but TLT actually continued downward and ended the day below the 200-day. It still has support from the 20-day EMA, so the question tomorrow is whether the 20-day will hold. If TLT doesn't hold support at the 20-day, then I think we're likely to see tech and pharma stocks follow it down. We could well be at the beginning of a significant correction for both bonds and stocks. Rising rates would be bad for growth companies, and especially bad for cash-poor companies that finance their growth through debt. (Pharmaceuticals, for instance, could be especially hard-hit.) Rising interest rates make it harder for those companies to get financing. The Nasdaq index has recently been selling off whenever rates rise (and bonds fall). Rising rates are better for banks than for tech, and could lead to outperformance by XLF. Smart Money Has Been Going Short Bonds for Months For the last couple months, a lot of smart money has been going short bonds on the expectation that bond rates will rise and bonds will fall. Ordinarily I'd hesitate to pile into such a crowded trade, but sometimes the crowd is right. The put/call ratio on TLT is 1.7, a big bearish bet. And an indirect way to be short bonds is to be short tech. The put/call ratio on the tech-heavy QQQ right now is an even more bearish 2.0. If you have heavy long exposure, especially to tech and growth, now is probably a good time to put some hedges on. Markets Have Been Celebrating No Corporate Tax Hike Stocks have been marching higher as the risk of a near-term corporate tax hike evaporated due to hard bargaining by centrist Democrats. In fact, the single largest line item in the Build Back Better Act is actually a large tax *cut* which disproportionately benefits the highest earners. That's certainly a bullish development for markets, because it means more billionaire money chasing stocks. But They've Been Ignoring the Risk That Interest Rates Will Rise I think markets are ignoring interest rate risk, though. The passage of the Build Back Better act means that the US Treasury will be issuing a lot more treasury bonds over the next few years in order to fund new spending, and it will be doing so at a time when the Federal Reserve is tapering its bond-buying program. That means that private investors will have to absorb that over-supply of treasuries, and they are likely to demand higher interest rates than the Federal Reserve would. A supply-and-demand shock in the bond market could be about to send interest rates up. Bonds May Have Just Flashed a Warning Sign Today TLT (a major treasury bond ETF) made a big bearish engulfing candle today and closed below the 200-day EMA. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, so rising rates = falling bonds.) The move came after the Fed's announcement that it will cut bond-buying in half this month and stop bond-buying altogether by mid-next year. I had bought a TLT put yesterday and took profit on it today at the 200-day EMA for a 30% gain, but TLT actually continued downward and ended the day below the 200-day. It still has support from the 20-day EMA, so the question tomorrow is whether the 20-day will hold. If TLT doesn't hold support at the 20-day, then I think we're likely to see tech and pharma stocks follow it down. We could well be at the beginning of a significant correction for both bonds and stocks. Rising rates would be bad for growth companies, and especially bad for cash-poor companies that finance their growth through debt. (Pharmaceuticals, for instance, could be especially hard-hit.) Rising interest rates make it harder for those companies to get financing. The Nasdaq index has recently been selling off whenever rates rise (and bonds fall). Rising rates are better for banks than for tech, and could lead to outperformance by XLF. Smart Money Has Been Going Short Bonds for Months For the last couple months, a lot of smart money has been going short bonds on the expectation that bond rates will rise. (Bond prices move the opposite direction from rates, meaning that rising rates cause prices to go down.) Ordinarily I'd hesitate to pile into such a crowded trade, but sometimes the crowd is right. The put/call ratio on TLT is 1.7, a big bearish bet. And an indirect way to be short bonds is to be short tech. The put/call ratio on the tech-heavy QQQ right now is an even more bearish 2.0. Inflation Numbers Will Determine Where We Go from Here FOMC futures are currently forecasting that the Fed will hike rates 2-3 times by the end of next year, with a small chance of 4 rate hikes. As But as John Cochrane argues, FOMC futures have historically tended to be too hawkish: johnhcochrane.blogspot.com There's a lot of political incentive in Washington, D.C. to keep rates low, so the Fed almost certainly won't raise rates until inflation forces their hand. (Raising rates is primarily a tool to control inflation.) So keep an eye on the inflation numbers as we go forward from here. Inflation over the past decade has tended undershoot expectations, and many economists still believe that the current bout of inflation will prove to be transitory. So it may well turn out that we just get one or two rate hikes, and then inflation stabilizes and everything returns to normal. For now, I am expecting a short-term correction in both bonds and stocks, but a stabilization in the medium term. Shipping prices have been falling: And commodities prices look like they may start to come down as well: Hopefully these are early signs that inflation will be transitory after all. But the last reading on the Citi Inflation Surprise Index was an all-time high, so beware. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it's that there's definitely a limit to how far and fast we can push deficit spending before inflation kicks in. Pandemic deficit spending in 2020 caused high inflation in 2021. The question now is whether inflation will run away or normalize. This is an unprecedented situation, so nobody really knows. But a lot will depend on whether the Fed and Congress can practice some fiscal discipline, or at least convince markets that they will.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
15
Upstart crumbles making new lows. Will it bounce?Hi everyone, Today I will demonstrate another example of a catastrophic dump in growth technology stock. This time we are taking a look at Upstart NASDAQ:UPST . The stock IPOed in December 2020 and I still remember the hype created around it. In August 2021 it started goind parabolic. Classic growth IPO stock. The entirety of fintwit community seemed to hold this stock in their portfolios. Everyone was boasting how their YTD return is 80% thanks to Upstart performance. That's when you know it's time to get out. NASDAQ:UPST topped in October 15. The stock was valued at 420 times earnings. It's price fell 72% in three months. From 401 all the way down to 111 . Even after 72% fall TTM P/E ratio of the stock is 113. Now, the question is will it bounce ? The stock currently is in a very steep downtrend, which will be broken easily, once determined buyers step in. Thus far, they are nowhere in sight. Since the IPO by far the largest portion of volume traded occurred in 122-137 price range. In order to rebound we need to see acceptence in this area. Otherwise, look out for these levels below: 103, 81, 43. Please let me know what are your thoughts on a current state of the tech sector. As always, trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NASDAQ:UPST
by AyBe_Invest
1
$NDQ #QQQ $QQQ pulling a Wu-Tang patternlooking at the 1hr chart, there is a classic W pattern formation going on here. December was a tough month for tech, and looks to be finally recovering. This weeks moves show a break above the prior down channel, with tightly wound consolidation. TBH I see this going in either direction, but with the tax loss harvesting done for 2021, my money is on volume buy-ins this month, with a beginning of a reversal in March when tapering is ending and rates are set to go up. NFA
TVC:NDQ
by corgicapitalllc
AMAZON The Triangle's of +100% riseThis chart is for the long-term investors. Being on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, AMZN has been trading within a Triangle (Ascending) since September 2020. This neutral mega-phase, has had many investors questioning whether the overbought state of early 2020 has made the stock lose its bullish dynamics. This pattern comparison with the previous neutral phase puts things into perspective. As you see the same Triangle pattern was formed from August 2018 to March 2020. On a monthly basis, every candle closed below the Resistance and only when that broke, Amazon started a parabolic rally. In 2021 Triangle we've have two major monthly break-outs but both retraced below the Resistance within the same month, leaving just a candle wick reminding of the failed attempt. The stock has a tendency of rising more than +100% when such break-outs take place. If you are a long-term trader/ investor, look for a 1M candle close above the Resistance as confirmation of a +100% rally. * Useful correlation: As the chart above shows, the LMACD indicates that Amazon is going trough distinct Cycles. Right now it shows that we are closer to a bottom. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:AMZN
by TradingShot
7
Brief overview of the stocks of the 2 major GPU manufacturersRecently I decided to take a delve into the sector of the stock market that truly represents my personal interests, the performance PC hardware sector. I've been performing investigation into various companies such as NASDAQ:INTC (Intel Corporation), NASDAQ:NVDA (Nvidia) & NASDAQ:AMD (Advanced Micro Devices). In many peculiar ways, these companies are very similar but also have some startling differences. What caused me to publish this idea, despite the fact that I am trying to build up some reputation, is I was doing some comparisons between Nvidia and AMD as they are the 2 major competitors in the graphics card market which is currently in some state of paralysis. During my brief investigation, I was trying to identify which option would be a viable option for 3+ year investment. Through some comparison I've come to notice some surprising facts about each company. First of all, AMD was not a competitive company for more than 10 years after their "birth". Around 5 years ago they were on the brink of bankruptcy, due to various factors including more debt than what could have been considered manageable or sustainable. Since then, Lisa Su was appointed CEO of AMD and pulled the company straight out of that sticky situation. Since then AMD has risen in price more than 1300 percentage points. The company has attained a fairly stable financial position and moderate PE ratio in comparison to its competitors. Considering its growth, the PE ratio and earnings per share are actually impressive. Nvidia has been established for a significantly longer period of time and have diversified within the hardware market to try maintain their monopoly as best they can despite companies such as AMD coming along and "rocking the boat". Between these 2 companies, they are sitting at very similar positions in the present bull market (At least from the perspective of an investor seeking a diversified portfolio). Due to Nvidia being listed for a considerably longer period of time, they have had time to grow and their overall market cap is sitting at just over $800B whilst AMD is sitting at a quarter of this. Both companies on the other hand have very similar EPS of $3.28 (AMD) and $3.30 (Nvidia). Based solely on statistical indication, AMD will prevail as the best investment choice as they have maintained a considerably lower PE ratio versus Nvidia (47.93 AMD; 97.17 Nvidia) and the PE hints towards their future performance as it has done in the past. Obviously a multiplier of 47 is by no means 'attractive' but in comparison nearly 100, I would far rather put my money in AMD especially considering how good management at AMD has become, the overall stability is reassuring from a speculative stand point. TL;DR: AMD is looking to be the far more appealing investment versus Nvidia (lower PE, similar EPS considering stocks available and company capacity)
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Michael_Axio
SONOS (SONO) to explode higher post Q4 EarningsFundamental Analysis Sonos is a technology company, that specializes in the home audio, wireless and multi-room sound systems. It's major competitors are Bose, JBL, Harmon Kardon, Cabasse in the higher-end home speaker space. The firm sells a wide range of audio devices including connected speakers, subwoofers, soundbars for TVs and more. Sonos made a big step in the right direction earlier this year, when the company entered into the popular portable smart speaker segment with its $179 mass-market Roam speaker. The company has also seen a significant increase in demand for its products as a result of the consumer shift towards modern, connected devices, smart homes etc. and this tailwind is expected to continue to push the company forward as more people spend on home-based upgrades. Recognizing the fact that the company relies heavily on its hardware sales, the senior management at Sonos has slowly but surely began to diversify the company's business by introducing new services and features to its clients. The most recent one was the Sonos Radio HD, which is an ad-free streaming tier of its music service competing directly with the likes of Spotify and it costs $7.99 per month. Following the example of the leading tech giants out there like Apple (AAPL), Sonos wants to build an ecosystem of products and services that will increase the loyalty to the brand, its revenue streams and overall efficiency. Sonos revenue climbed 11% in FY19 and 5% last year. Analysts expect call for its 2021 (year ended October 2) sales to surge more than 30% to over $1.8 billion, with FY22 projected to jump another 13% higher to come in at $1.95 billion. The company is expected to swing from an adjusted loss of -$0.18 a share last year all the way to +$1.11 in FY21, with FY22 set to climb another 6% higher. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, the stock has been in a sideways consolidation trading range in the last 8 months, after the huge BULL run in the Sept. 2020 - March 2021 period. We saw the stock failing to break the ATH resistance at the $44 mark on few occasions earlier in the Spring. Since then, the stock has been stuck within the broad $31-$44 range, with few sharp rises and declines. However, most recently we've seen a strong pickup in the bullish momentum for the stock heading into its Q4 Earnings report, which is scheduled to be released on November 17th after the market close. This shows that investors are positive about the future of the company and as a result expect to see the stock moving higher. We are seeing both the RSI and the Stochastic oscillators trending upwards on their daily graphs. The current position of the stock with respect to the above-mentioned price range as well as the upcoming earnings report, combined with the 4 straight Earnings beats that Sonos has produced in its last 4 EPS reports, we expect to see a major move to the upside for the stock in the coming weeks. We see Sonos moving easily towards the higher end of the price range around $44 per share before the end of November, where it will face certain selling pressure as many pending SELL orders are waiting there. However, we believe that the stock will ultimately manage to break above this strong resistance, which will then open up the door for a strong rally towards the $55-60 range in Q1, 2022. Follow us for more detailed market analyses, profitable trading ideas and a consistent portfolio performance! Kind regrds, Dow Experts Finance
NASDAQ:SONOLong
by DowExperts
Seagate Breaks the DowntrendSeagate Technology has spent the last five months pulling back. But now it may be turning around. The main pattern on today’s chart is the descending trendline that started in May and ran along the peaks of August and September. Notice how STX closed above that line on Friday. Next, the jump followed two weeks of consolidation along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). A bounce at that level may suggest its longer-term uptrend remains intact. It also occurred near the July 21 low at $78.86. Third, consider why STX jumped last week: strong quarterly results and guidance. The hard-drive maker is enjoying a surge of demand from data-center customers. Its relatively low multiple (about 10 times forward earnings) could also provide some cushion against rising interest rates. Finally, notice how the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is on the verge of rising above the 21-day EMA. STX may pause around its current level, but a cross of the 8-day EMA above the 21-day could signal shorter-term momentum has grown more positive. TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
NASDAQ:STXLong
by TradeStation
2