AMD Strongest buy signal in more than a yearAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) is approaching the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), extending a 10-month correction of Lower Highs and Lower Lows since the March 04 2024 High. The last time the price came close to the 1W MA200 was more than a year ago on the October 23 2023 1W candle, which was the previous Higher Low of the Bull Cycle that started on the October 10 2022 market bottom.
The 1W MA200 has been basically holding as the stock's long-term Support since the January 23 2023 bullish break-out and has been successfully tested 3 times already. The 1W RSI shows that the corrective wave since October 2024 is very similar to those that led to the previous 2 bottoms. In fact the whole correction since the March 2024 High has been almost -48%, approximately the same as the late 2022 correction.
Notice also that so far each Bullish Leg (green Channel Up) rose by +141.87%. If the 1W MA200 holds yet again and kick-starts the new Bullish Leg, we expect another +141.87% rally until the next market Top, so we set a Target at $280.00.
As a side-note, see how accurately the Sine Waves display the previous two bottoms, indicating that there is a high degree of symmetry on this Bull Cycle.
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Nvidia - Shocking Everybody Again In 2025!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) will rally another +40% in 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For most people, it seems absolutely counterintuitive to witness another parabolic blow off rally on Nvidia and that's exactly why we will see such moves during 2025. Market structure just supports this outlook since Nvidia is still overall bullish and has some room towards the upside.
Levels to watch: $200
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
$AMD: The AI Challenger Closing 2024 Strong
Introduction
AMD’s 2024 journey has been marked by strong performance in AI and gaming, backed by solid product launches and strategic moves.
📈 As the year ends, AMD’s MI300 series has crossed $5 billion in data center GPU revenue, setting the stage for further growth in 2025.
💡 But is this momentum enough to solidify AMD as a long-term investment opportunity? Let’s explore. 🔍
Key Insights
1. Financial Highlights 💵
Stock Price: $119.21 (+0.28% today).
P/E Ratio: 45, showcasing high growth expectations.
Revenue Growth: +18% YoY in Q3, driven by data centers and gaming. 🎮
Note: While AMD’s valuation appears stretched compared to historical norms, its forward-looking growth potential justifies a deeper look. 👀
2. AI Market Expansion 🤖
MI300 Series Success: AMD’s data center GPU revenue surpassed $5 billion in 2024, boosted by adoption across cloud providers and enterprises. ☁️
Future Pipeline: The MI325X is set to launch in late 2024, and the MI350 series is planned for 2025. These products aim to strengthen AMD’s position in AI computing.
Analysis:
The global AI market, projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030 🌍, presents immense growth opportunities. AMD’s investment in AI-focused products and partnerships positions it well to capture a meaningful share of this expanding market. 🚀
3. Gaming and Esports Stability 🎮
Revenue: Gaming contributed $1.5 billion in Q3 (+4% YoY).
Growth Drivers: Ryzen CPUs and Radeon GPUs remain popular for gaming rigs, while console upgrades and esports continue to fuel demand.
Takeaway: Gaming remains a consistent revenue stream for AMD, complementing its more volatile AI and data center segments. 💻
4. Competitive Positioning ⚔️
Against Nvidia: AMD’s MI300 series competes in performance and adoption but remains a challenger to Nvidia’s dominance.
Against Intel: AMD continues to outpace Intel in CPU performance and market share growth, reinforcing its reputation as a reliable competitor. 🏆
5. Undervaluation Potential 📊
AMD trades below key moving averages, suggesting a potential opportunity for long-term investors.
Forward P/E could drop to 30 if 2025 earnings grow as projected, aligning with value-focused investment strategies. 📉➡️📈
What’s Next? 🔮
With 2024 closing on a strong note, AMD’s focus shifts to executing its 2025 product launches and capitalizing on AI market growth. Whether you see AMD as undervalued or overvalued depends on your confidence in its ability to sustain this momentum. 🧠
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a professional before making investment decisions. 📢
US100 Trade LogUS100 has reached the daily FVG , providing a short setup at the 0.5 level with at least "1:2 RRR" and 1% risk.
Any fill above the midpoint is ideal, aiming for a correction into the weekly Kijun .
Recent Fed hawkishness, softening global growth, and tightening liquidity support a downside move. Stops go just above the FVG high; ride the drop toward weekly support.
Will QQQ hold support?QQQ testing the long term channel for support after breakout. Holiday are low volume and a usually a time for the market to climb some without any selling pressure. If I had to guess, then I would say we generally move sideway and up through the end of December. When the traders are back in full for in January will tell us if this rally continues or it has been a big pump and dump for the incoming Trump administration and its new policies.
Cloudflare: ResistanceBy expanding the green wave 3, NET recently stretched above the resistance at $117.70. However, the stock only briefly surpassed this level before encountering selling pressure, which pushed it back to its early December levels. Primarily, we expect the price to overcome this resistance to complete the green five-wave structure and, thus, the orange wave iii. A still ongoing wave alt.ii correction remains a possibility in the context of our 30% likely alternative scenario.
NVDA AI Revolution: Which Stocks Will Lead the Charge in 2025?AI Revolution: Which Stocks Will Lead the Charge in 2025?
"AI isn’t the future; it’s the now, and it's flipping the investment world on its head like a rogue AI flipping through data."
Introduction
Artificial Intelligence is not just transforming industries; it's becoming the heartbeat of innovation. In 2024, Nvidia and Microsoft stand out, but diving into AI stocks requires a keen eye for both opportunity and jeopardy. Let's dissect their dominion, strategies, and financial health to guide your investment journey.
Nvidia: The Engine of AI
Nvidia’s GPUs are more than just hardware; they're the fuel driving the AI engine across sectors.
Market Dominance: With an expected 64% of the AI server market, Nvidia's GPUs, particularly the H100, are the industry's gold standard for AI training.
Financial Highlights:
P/E Ratio: At 30.09, Nvidia's stock might be running on hype or genuine growth.
Free Cash Flow: A staggering $33.73 billion, giving Nvidia the muscle to innovate relentlessly.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 17.22, reflecting aggressive growth funding through debt.
Future Outlook: The upcoming H200 chip could further cement Nvidia's lead, but at what cost to valuation?
💡 “Nvidia isn't just selling hardware; they're selling the future of AI computation.”
Microsoft: AI's Silent Integrator
Microsoft isn't just playing the AI game; they're changing the rules, embedding AI where you least expect it.
AI Integration: Through Azure and tools like Copilot, Microsoft is making AI as ubiquitous as electricity.
Financial Insights:
ROIC: An astonishing 130%, showcasing unparalleled capital efficiency.
Net Income Margin: 56% - Microsoft turns more than half its revenue into profit, a testament to its operational prowess.
Cash Position: With $39 billion in cash, Microsoft is ready for any strategic move or shareholder reward.
Strategic Alliances: Leveraging partnerships like OpenAI, Microsoft is pushing AI's boundaries.
💡 “Microsoft isn’t just adopting AI; it's making AI adopt us.”
The Broader AI Ecosystem
Google ( NASDAQ:GOOG ): Using AI to enhance search and cloud, potentially rivaling Microsoft's Azure.
Meta ( NASDAQ:META ): Innovating with generative AI in social platforms and VR.
IonQ ( NYSE:IONQ ): Bridging AI with quantum computing for groundbreaking computational power.
💡 “In the AI race, today's leaders could be tomorrow's followers.”
Risks in the AI Investment Arena
Overvaluation: Nvidia's high P/E might signal a bubble waiting to burst.
Regulatory Challenges: As AI grows, so does the regulatory scrutiny, potentially slowing down innovation.
Market Saturation: With AI becoming mainstream, distinguishing between real innovators and opportunists becomes crucial.
💡 “Investing in AI is like betting on tech; some will soar, others might crash and burn.”
Conclusion
Nvidia and Microsoft are pivotal in the AI landscape, but the field is broader and riskier than it seems. Understanding these nuances will be key to navigating 2025’s investment landscape.
Nasdaq - It All Comes Down To This Month!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is at a crucial breakout level:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
The Nasdaq rallied an incredible +25% over the past couple of months and is now actually also breaking a major resistance trendline towards the upside. This could still turn into a false breakout but if it doesn't, we will most likely see a flourishing stock market year of 2025
Levels to watch: $21.000, $28.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
TESLA tags my Target 2 price objectiveTracking Tesla is an exhilarating experience, thanks to its significant price fluctuations, the attention it garners, and the charismatic presence of Elon Musk. The momentum of this electric vehicle powerhouse seems unstoppable.
This year has truly been a wild ride for Tesla! It started with a dramatic 30% drop in stock value during the first quarter, fueled by worries about falling revenues and challenges with vehicle profit margins. This was Tesla's toughest quarter since late 2022. However, as we look at the current situation, the company's financial and operational performance is on the upswing. The enthusiasm and optimism surrounding this stock are off the charts.
Fortunately, we successfully capitalized on the two major movements from the peak of the previous cycle in 2021, leading us to the current extraordinary surge (or perhaps more fittingly, a "Marsshot!") that both the stock and Elon are experiencing.
The Good, The Bad, and The Batteries Enovix (ENVX)Enovix (ENVX) Stock Analysis: Batteries, Risks, and Big Dreams
"Speculation without preparation is just gambling with extra paperwork."
1. Batteries That Could Change the Game
Enovix Corporation is a silicon battery innovator. From smartphones to EVs, they’re trying to power everything—if they can power through their own growing pains first.
Stock’s sitting at $8.42, down 6.24% recently. A far cry from its 52-week high of $18.68. The low? $5.70. A wild ride, just like the battery tech race.
Cool tech, shaky stock. Can they charge forward, or will they short-circuit?
2. Financial Roller Coaster
2023 revenue climbed 23% to $7.64M. Sounds great—until you see the $214M net loss (up 314%). Cash burn isn’t just happening; it’s a bonfire.
Q3 2024 did offer a silver lining. Losses narrowed by 80% quarter-over-quarter, with EPS coming in better than expected at -$0.17 vs. -$0.21. Progress, but still deep in the red.
When a company spends $214M to make $7M, the math doesn’t exactly scream stability.
3. Analysts Love It, The Market Isn’t Sure
Analysts are calling it a “Strong Buy,” with a $21.22 price target—a potential upside of 134%. But with 24.59% of the float shorted, skeptics clearly have reservations.
Some love the battery promise. Others see the losses, CFO departure, and volatility as too big to ignore.
This stock is a battlefield between optimists and skeptics. Pick your side, but don’t forget the popcorn.
4. Malaysia Plant: The Big Hope
Enovix’s Fab-2 in Malaysia is operational, producing EX-1M battery cells and prepping for mass production by 2025. Add a major smartphone OEM deal to the mix, and the future starts looking brighter.
Scaling production is their golden ticket. But “mass production” often means “massive delays.” Keep watching.
5. Risks and Red Flags
Leadership changes, high short interest, and the struggle to scale—Enovix has its challenges. They’re betting on their tech to win over skeptics, but nothing’s guaranteed in a high-risk, high-reward industry.
If they pull it off, it’s a game-changer. If they don’t? Another tech name fades into obscurity.
6. Bottom Line: Worth the Risk?
Enovix is speculative. Its tech has potential, but the road ahead is paved with volatility. For risk-tolerant investors, it’s a shot worth considering. For the cautious? Maybe wait until the story unfolds further.
Disclaimer: “Investing is risky. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Consult your financial advisor. Or don’t. Just don’t blame DCAChampion if things go south.
Micron Technology - This Stock Will Double Soon!Micron Technology ( NASDAQ:MU ) is retesting massive support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After we saw a test of the resistance trendline on Micron Technology a couple of months ago, it was quite likely that we will eventually retest the previous all time high. This structure is now acting as massive support and together with the rising trendline, we will see a bullish rejection.
Levels to watch: $90, $180
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Nvidia: Gradual ProgressNvidia’s stock has made slight progress toward fulfilling our primary scenario. We still anticipate -wave sell-offs down to the support level at $90.69, where the blue wave (IV) correction should finally conclude. However, our alternative scenario of an already finished wave alt. (IV) remains in play. In this case, the stock would resume its ascent as part of blue wave alt. (V), pushing well above the resistance at $152.89 to reach new highs and, thus, complete the overarching green wave alt. (probability: 37%).
Amd - Retest, Reversal And A +100% Rally!Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) will soon retest massive previous support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After Amd perfectly retested the upper channel resistance about half a year ago, we saw a beautiful rejection and already a retest of the crucial horizontal support. Now, Amd is once again coming back to retest this support and another bullish reversal is extremely likely.
Levels to watch: $130, $260
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NETFLIX historic pattern targets $1500 in 2025.Last time we looked at Netflix (NFLX) was on its earnings release (October 21, see chart below), when we gave a strong bullish signal that easily hit our $840.00 Target:
Since 3 week ago, the price even broke above the dominant 1-year Channel Up and is now in search of a new pattern. This pattern can be found if we zoom out considerably on the 1W time-frame, where the underlying pattern since the U.S. Housing Crisis is a 25-year Channel Up.
The symmetry within this pattern is high and in fact since the June 2022 market bottom (which was a Higher Low on the Channel Up), the stock has been on a Bull Cycle. The Bear Cycle that preceded it had a massive decline of -77%. The last correction of this magnitude was the July 2011 - August 2012 Bear Cycle, which declined by -83%.
The two Bull Cycles that followed Netflix's golden years were identical (+825% and +847%). As a result, we assume that the current Bull Cycle will also rise by at least +825% from its bottom, which gives us a $1500 Target towards the end of 2025.
Notice also how both the 2012 - 2014 and 2022 - 2024 Bull Cycles had a 1W Golden Cross.
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APPLE targeting $265 at the top of the Channel UpApple (AAPL) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the January 03 2023 bottom. At the moment the price is on the pattern's second long-term Bullish Leg, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As long as this line holds, we expect the Bullish Leg to complete a +20.82% rise (similar to December 14 2023) from the U.S. elections low and target $265.00. The fractals are quite similar as the 1W MACD is forming now a Bullish Cross, in indentical fashion as November 20 2023.
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NVDIA Channel Up ready to explode in 2025 for a $350 target.NVIDIA corporation (NVDA) has started the week on a bullish 1W candle, following last week's reversal pattern. Technically that reversal is being formed exactly at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 10 2022 market bottom.
This 2-year pattern is technically very similar to the Channel Up that started on the weekly bottom of December 24 2018. The similarities between the two patterns are striking. As you can see both started after an oversold 1W RSI (<30.00) touch, which then formed Higher Lows, making the price rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Then, using the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Support, the 2019 - 2021 Channel Up expanded all the way to the 6.0 Fibonacci extension, until the eventual break below the 1W MA50 and the 2022 Inflation Crisis.
Observe also how similar their 1W RSI sequences are. Right now it appears that we are after a technical pull-back similar to May 10 2021. The 1W MA50 is supporting and the 1W RSI (which has already made a Double Bottom rebound (green circles)) is bouncing off its MA (yellow trend-line) and looking for a break-out above the (dotted) Channel Down.
We have already set two Targets ($190 and $240) for on NVDIA on our previous analysis, but this time we move a little further, making a projection for the end of this Cycle. And the final Target is $350, exactly on the 6.0 Fibonacci extension, the level that formed the November 22 2021 Top.
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INTEL looks good! To me at least...Especially if we get some bad earnings to push that buy right down, might get a good low bid for a multi year long.
Easy stop loss target too / clear invalidation.
Its not like we wont need them anytime soon
Also bit of a widening upward accumulation cylinder / broadening wedge which I like
Ho-Ho-Hold or Sell? The Magnificent Seven Christmas PUMP!!!!Incredible strength in the tech sector as price keeps making higher highs despite the huge rally we’ve already witnessed this year.
NASDAQ:MAGS Today’s daily close will confirm a new bullish time at mode trend on the 3 day chart.
Targets: $56 and $61
Expiry by December 27th
The trend expiry date has confluence with the end of the year low volume so this should be a risk on call with exits pre Xmas!
Nasdaq - This Is Just The Beginning!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is preparing a major rally going into 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
As mentioned in all of my previous analysis, the Nasdaq is rallying but despite the recent strong move, there is still a lot more room towards the upside. With the channel breakout happening over the past couple of months, it is quite likely that we will see a rally of +50% during 2025.
Levels to watch: $26.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Qualcomm: Target Zone Ahead!While many tech-sector stocks are aiming for new highs, QCOM remains locked in a narrow range around the $170 level. Last week, the stock initially reacted to the 23.60% retracement and now hovers near the edge of our blue Target Zone (coordinates: $159.57 to $121.52). Our primary expectation is for the blue wave (IV) to extend further below the support at $151.39, where we anticipate its low point. Technically, a direct breakout to the upside is also possible, as our Target Zone – and thus the minimum correction threshold – has already been reached. If the price decisively breaks above the resistance levels at $193.84, an overarching alternative wave count will come into play (probability: 33%).
QQQ - Breakout or Fakeout?Finally, some action after a very boring month or so of being range bound. The lack of a contested election provided a major boost to tech the last two days :) Now, the question is if this rally is a true breakout above the trading channel that has confined QQQ for most of the last 14 years or so (minus the COVID bubble) or if it is just a fake out.
TESLA Will it turn the former 2-year Resistance into Support?Tesla (TSLA) fulfilled our August 15 buy signal (see chart below) as after the minor pull-back we expected, it rose aggressively on its new Bullish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up and came close to a new Higher High:
The correction of the past 4 days may be one last great short-term buy opportunity as it hit yesterday the former Resistance Zone of July 2022. If it holds, it will turn into its new technical Support Zone, thus will be an additional buy for out $380.00 Target.
Beyond that we need to see the ATH break before formulating a new strategic plan on the pattern that will emerge.
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Netflix - This Is A 100% Probability Setup!Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) will continue its parabolic rally:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
With this monthly candle, Netflix finally broke above the previous all time high and it about to continue the reversal triangle pattern cycle. We saw the same breakout back in 2013, when Netflix broke above the all time high and then started an even stronger rally of about +50%.
Levels to watch: $750, $1.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)