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Nasdaq NQ hovering @wma200/mma50/June low zone;Diamond again?Nasdaq, si,liar to SPY has made 2 diamond patterns in May & June leading to a reversal with positive Rsi divergence. Could it be repeating similar set-up this Sept-Oct? It is currently hovering around the mma50+wma200+June low zone. Sometimes prices break a little below the diamond pattern first eating away the cut-losses before a reversal. If NQ makes another new low after Thursday’s economics data, it will be bad news. Not trading advice
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by xtremerider8
NASDAQ downside risk, clear and presentSimilar to the SPY analysis, the NASDAQ is actually slightly more bearish looking... The daily NQ1! chart has bearish indicators all around, and already is in the immediate downside target range, albeit earlier than projected. The recently broken supports now become resistances. The weekly chart appears even more bearish with the June lows appearing to be easily taken out, and a breakdown to <10,000 very feasible over the next 4-6 weeks.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Auguraltrader
NQ holds near-term bottom@11800;rally into FMOC bef a final dumpWith TSLA, AAPL & NVDA rallying on a risk-on Monday, NQ seems to be making positive divergences similar to June but this needs some follow-thru this week. It is holding 11800 with Friday”s hammer candle suggesting a shortterm low for the month. MACD also crossed into green territory. Another Diamond reversal pattern MAY be forming similar to June? BULLISH SCENARIO: My Elliott wave count would suggest a June low is in with the ABC correction ended. BUT I may be wrong logically with a 75 to 100 basis-point rate hike coming in Sept even with the market already pricing in a 75 pt hike. BUT MARKET IS IRRATIONAL. NQ may rally into Sept FOMC rate hike near 13k & then make a final dump on last week of Sept from an overbought condition. (NQ has to go above 13740 to confirm a higher high) No one knows where the final bottom will be before a Santa Claus rally. Possible supports are ma50, 12200 to remain within the upchannel or perhaps a retest of 11800 with the HHHL remaining intact. BEARISH CASE: NQ may rally into Sept FOMC but still comes back down to make a lower low than either 11800 or the June low. In this case, the positive divergence may extend up to an October rally. If 11800 or the June low of 11068 breaks, then the next stop will be the 10900 to 10500 yellow zone. Not trading advice
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by xtremerider8
NASDAQ hits the other type of bump!You could be well forgiven if you thought that the market was toying with you... in the last three weeks, we saw the NASDAQ follow through downside strongly, then ricochet off a support strongly, only to be yet again totally overwhelmed by the bears mauling the markets. In these volatile times, one need to be nimble, and this had been recently heads up in my earlier analyses. Having said all that, something interesting appears to have presented itself, particularly in the NASDAQ futures, NQ1!, and I do wonder how many had actually noticed this enigma. It will be discussed here, and we have to play the bull bear scenarios yet again; expected as the volatility is high and sudden changes can and will happen. We start with the NQ1! NASDAQ futures daily chart. We see that the week started as expected with a nice gap up follow through from last week Friday, above the 55EMA. Then with a Powell Pow-Wow, one single day engulfed and wiped out 3 days worth of gains, closing two gap ups. Extremely bearish by any standards. The following day was a weak technical rebound, and then a second bearish engulfing type of price action. On Friday, it gapped down, and made a lower low. Only respite is a late session recovery to close the day as a very interesting candlestick known as the Dragonfly Doji . This doji represents a likely bounce, and is a pre-cursor to a possible bottom, or at least a consolidation. The MACD is starting to show a bullish divergence, and it is starting to appear that a bottom may be forming. But till then, the MACD (lagging as it is) is suggesting that there is more downside or a consolidation at best. Hence, we can draw a critical support line ( the thick yellow line) where price action should remain, and close above for a bullish or consolidation range; otherwise, a breakdown to the previous downside targets is more likely. Without doubt, the daily chart appears to be more bearish than bullish, but the weekly chart has much more than meets the eye. Over the last three weeks, the NQ1! NASDAQ futures weekly candle range is clearly increasing, and appears erratic with a down up down pattern. Zooming out, the symmetrical pattern projection suggest that the NASDAQ is due for a further slide down to below 10K. The technical indicators are divergent in the sense that the MACD is bearish, and yet the shorter term RPM is suggesting some bullishness. How now brown cow? Perhaps if we also take the candlestick patterns to the next level, we might get a clearer hint. The three recent weekly candles circled represent a group of three candlesticks called a Stick Sandwich . In this set of candlestick pattern, regardless of how it looks (bearish) it is typically a bullish reversal pattern at the bottom of a downtrend. Now, to take the bullish scenario, it is nearing the end of a pattern, and the downtrend has been going on for a bit (since Nov 2021 high); so if this is a bullish reversal, then it might be a higher low on the weekly chart. In order for this to pan out, it needs to recover quite strongly over the next couple of weeks, and we can set the resistance at about 13K (thick green line). Overall, this gives us a rather large range from 11,900 to 12,900, and time is needed to see what/where the market decides. Non-technical factors adding to volatility include FOMC announcement on 21 September. Am not an expert about that, but all I can comment is that volatility both ways is a given. Hence, the range guidance. Still, keep in mind the initial and base projection down to 9500, it is not invalidated yet. IMHPO, the I think the bears have a 70/30 edge; am just ready to be nimble (particularly in mindset, perception and timeframe), as the charts are telling. I really hope you enjoyed and appreciate my rather unique analysis. Admittedly, there are parts not mentioned, but do contribute to the overall situational critical analysis. I do not mention as I am not an expert (yet) in those areas although some factors are considered in the overall analysis. More importantly, there are links for further background reading, so do click on them and enjoy the read. Looking forward to your comments... Stay safe & well, be nimble. Have a great week ahead!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
NASDAQ bump!The NASDAQ (like the SPY) did a spectacular turnaround week... Last week appeared so bearish with all indication pointing to the down draft to the last low, and this past week appears to have changed that trajectory. Here is why: The NASDAQ weekly chart closed the week the a bullish candle, one that is significant because it almost qualifies as a Bullish Engulfing (very similar less small strict technical details). More importantly, the bullish candle closed above the previous week's gap down range, a bullish indication. The technical indicators are not yet aligned as the RPM indicates upward momentum, but the MACD pretty much crossed under the Signal line. The daily chart has a clearer bullish confirmation pattern, and is a possible higher low pivot. The week had started with bearish days and mid-week came a clear Bullish Engulfing type of candlestick pattern. This was followed through by a nice bullish candle with a lower tail, and beautifully completed by a Gap Up (uncommon for futures) and run to close a previous gap down range. Oddly, it is at a confluence point of the daily 55EMA as well as the resistance of a trend line (green down sloping trend line). The really nice thing is that the technical indicators, both the RPM and MACD are aligned and supportive of a bullish follow through. There are a couple of resistances marked out, and breaking each one would give the bulls more impetus to charge upwards. Appears as if a higher low is formed, and if so, watch for a higher high (13.5K)... ranges are bigger and wider now, so have to be careful. stay safe!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Auguraltrader
1
ZM accumulating @pandemic zone since Russian invasion; next TPsZM will continue to increase user base in the next few years even if work-from-home subdues. It has made a perfect ABC correction with A=C & is has been consolidating in the pre-pandemic 102 zone since Russian invasion started in Feb 2022. The risk of worst-case scenario is very low compared to the great upsides if a new EW cycle begins after ZM breaks above the pandemic zone & go above Ichimuko cloud in the 4Q2022. Not trading advice
NASDAQ:ZMLong
by xtremerider8
APPLE on key Resistance. Failure to break can result to $150.Apple Inc (AAPL) has been on an incredible +35% rise since the June 16 Low. It is trading above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1W RSI broke last week above the 60.00 barrier for the first time since February 08. However despite the positives, here comes the most important Resistance test of all that will largely determine entering a new Bull Cycle or staying inside the 2022 Bear. That is the Lower Highs trend-line of the January 03 All Time High (ATH). As you see, Apple hit that trend-line also on March 29 and got rejected. A similar pattern was last seen in late 2018 - early 2019 at the peak of the U.S. - China trade war. If we apply a similar Lower Highs trend-line, we see that the Jan- April 2019 rally failed to break it and got rejected back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, before the next double test broke above it into a new Bull Phase. In a similar fashion, we expect Apple to have a strong rally if the Lower Highs trend-line breaks, but if rejected, test the 0.5 Fib which is at $150.00. Notice the importance of the Death/ Golden Cross formations but more importantly the symmetrical Resistance/ Support levels of the 1W RSI between 2019 and today. This can be an additional roadmap of rejection and where to buy then. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:AAPL
by TradingShot
3
NDXZooming out, NDX looks strong, as per EW rules the 5th wave must match the 1st wave in both time and %. That said fomo can obviously send the 5th much higher and also terminate the trend earlier. But for now in respect to the fact that EW is not a crystal ball , I would say that since I am counting the 4th wave finished on the week June 13th 2022 the bulls have until July 2023 to finish the 5th wave at my projected target of 18,600. (not accounting for any Fomo) Also I expect a correction soon back to 12,300 or there about to make the LTF daily chart W2.
TVC:NDQLong
by Big_Mike716
TESLA on a wild rise just as expected a month agoOur last analysis on Tesla (TSLA) was exactly 1 month ago, where we stated the importance of breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line in order to initiate a rally: As you see, the Double Bottom accurately signaled the end of the correction and the break above the Lower Highs, the start of a new rally. The rally is technically the sequence to a new Lower High of the long-term pattern on Tesla which has been a Channel Down since November 04. The price has now turned the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support and on the short-term is targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This is a symmetrical sequence by all means to the previous rebound to the top of the Channel Down last March and those similarities have helped as projected this move. On the long-term we are targeting the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. A break below the previous Low would invalidate this and instead signal a sell targeting the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TradingShot
1
NasdaqI think we are in an ending diagonal within the primary 4th wave position. Inside of the larger intermediate ABC. LTF daily chart looks like we have lost the lower TL of the ending diagonal in what should become an overthrow on the weekly TF. Currently working on the Z wave which is the strongest wave of the WXYXZ pattern which usually sends the price up or down depending on whether or not the WXYXZ pattern is bullish or bearish. After wave Z a strong reversal hits. This is what my chart implies.
TVC:NDQLong
by Big_Mike716
NASDAQ about ready to breakoutAn interesting week went by, one with ups and downs and all around. The week ended with a long lower tail in the weekly candlestick. This we know, indicates bullishness. The daily chart shows how this came about, with a doji on Wednesday, and then a higher low retest followed by a nice uptick on Friday. These moves bounced off a support level, as well as clock in a second higher low (after technical bounce was expected previously). The weekly technical indicators crossed up recently, and the daily technical indicators show mild bullish build in the MACD, and less so in the RPM. Taken together, it appears that a bullish break out is imminent for the coming week. If this happens, then we are looking at a higher probability for July to close higher at about 13,500. Watch the next few days, it should show hand...
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
6
AMAZON Generational Bottom and buy opportunityAmazon (AMZN) has been trading within the MA300 (red trend-line) and MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 1W time-frame for more than 2 months. In multi-year terms, this is the equivalent of a bottom formation within the Bullish Channel that started after the bottom of the Dotcom crash in September 2001. More specifically, the 1W MA300 hasn't been touched since January 2009 (bottom of the housing crisis) and the last time a (Higher) Low was formed within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels (Fib Channel applied on the pattern) was within October 2014 - January 2015. With the 1W RSI rebounding after breaking inside its multi-decade Buy Zone (has done so only another 3 times in 21 years) and the 1W LMACD inevitably about to make a Bullish Cross, this seems like a golden multi-year buy opportunity for Amazon. The Higher High target has been the 0.786 Fibonacci level since late 2018. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by TradingShot
1
MICROSOFT Targeting $285 short-termMicrosoft (MSFT) is about to hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 3rd time since June 27. A new break should be a confirmation of that being the new Lower High rebound. The previous targeted the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, this is now over the Channel Down a little above 285.00. We believe this might be the start to an even bigger and more sustainable rise as certain long-term indicators have been aligned on Support levels: * First, the RSI on the 1W time-frame is on a Bullish Divergence, being on Higher Lows while the price action was on Lower Lows. * Second, the 1W MACD inevitably will form a Bullish Cross, the first since October 27 2021. * Third, the 1M MA30 (yellow trend-line) supported the previous Low, right on the Higher Lows trend-line that started back in September 18 2020. As mentioned the 285.00 is just below the 0.618 Fib, where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) might be by the time it tests it, for the ultimate Resistance test. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TradingShot
AAPLE holding the 1D MA50, targeting 158 short-term.Apple (AAPL) had a very strong 1D green candle yesterday, rebounding off the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the Resistance since April 21, turning it into the Support. The break-out took place after the RSI on the 1W time-frame broke above its MA line on the widest margin since January 04. With the 1W MACD about to make the first Bullish Cross since November 18 2021, this could be the long-term buy signal that the market has been waiting for, for a sustainable recovery. The technical short-term target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at around 158.00. The Fibonacci retracement levels can provide the next targets and pull-back/ buy levels. Overall the stock has the potential to reach its All Time High level before the end of the year. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by TradingShot