Fiserv: Soon… ☺️Soon, Fiserv should reach the magenta colored zone between $134.09 and $140.81 and complete wave (B) in magenta – there is only little difference in altitude left. Once this top is placed, the share should turn downwards, heading for its next goal: the southern magenta colored zone between $108.96 and $89.26, where wave (C) in magenta and wave 4 in green should end. From there, wave 5 in green should carry Fiserv to the final top of wave I in gray, concluding an overarching upwards movement. There is a 33% chance, though, that the share could leave the next magenta zone on the upper side, developing wave alt.I in gray earlier already and thus cold-shouldering the magenta zone in the south.
Techstocks
IBM: Processing… 💻IBM is still processing wave b in red – the second step of a three part downwards movement, which should soon lead to the low of wave B in turquoise. As soon as wave B in turquoise is complete, the share should turn upwards to climb above the resistance at $139.47. There, IBM should conclude wave 2 in green before a significant downwards movement should take hold. However, there is a 35% chance that IBM could rise above $139.47 directly to develop a new top of wave alt.A in turquoise first before turning downwards again.
Can AAOI continue a 400% trend up ?AAOI has trended up more than 450% since May 23th. The big question is can it continue?
The factors include:
1 Volume - volume is what causes price action. Here rising volumes above the running mean
suggest that there is plenty of volume support for price action.
2. Anchored VWAP analysis is that after a pullback in VWAP levels in mid June price has been
rising and crossing VWAP levels above it. This is essentially a VWAP breakout. Price is increasingly
overbought and overvalued and perhaps due for another correction.
3. RSI of both the lower and high time frames crossed 80 more than a week ago. Thus far
RSI is stable without any sign of falling into bearish divergence.
4. The MACD lines are parallel and well above the histogram. They are at about the 9 level.
Price reversed on June 20th into the pullback. This is when the lines were at 11.7. This reasonably suggests another pullback or correction when they rise again to 11.7
Given the above, I conclude that AAOI has upside room until divergence is seen or trading volumes change to net selling volume or price outright pivots down from a high.
Accordingly, I will take a long trade expecting to capture the end of this massive trend up.
Electronic Arts: Take the Plunge! 💪As it has finished wave (B) in red, Electronic Arts should take the plunge and jump below the support at $108.53 to dive into the green zone between $119.33 and $113.17. There, the share should complete wave (C) in red as well as wave 2 in green before turning upwards again. However, Electronic Arts might also decide to develop a new top of wave alt.1 in green above the resistance at $132.87 first. We rate this alternative route with a probability of 37%.
GOOGLE: Hit the 1D MA50 after 3.5 months! Rebound ahead?Google hit two days ago the 1D MA50 for the first time since March 15th and is already rebounding. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 49.273, MACD = 1.050, ADX = 30.515) indicating that the first buy in some time can be justified on the current level buy attention is required as the downside has technical extension potential.
We are taking this opportunity to place our first buy and target the R1 (TP = 130.00) but if 1D closes the candle under the MA50, we will realize the loss, sell with TP = 108.00 and then reverse to buying again (TP = 130.00) assuming the 1D MA200 holds as the long term Support.
The 1D RSI touched its HL trendline, which empowers buying on the current level.
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Booking Holdings: Reservation confirmed 🏨Booking Holdings has booked a room in our dark green target zone between $2939 and $3096 and should reach this destination via wave b in gray. During its stay, the share should establish the distinctive top of the current movement and then leave its dark green lodging on the southern side, heading for the support at $2456. However, there is a 30% chance that wave alt.b in gray could have already checked out and that Booking Holdings could start its journey below $2456 earlier. In that case, the dark green hotel room would remain vacated.
Nvidia's runaway gap could keep it king of the NasdaqWhilst Meta platforms has closed the gap with Nvidia in terms of YTD performance on the Nasdaq 100, Nvidia remains king of the crop having climbed over 170% from its 2022 low.
Prices blew past their previous record high set in 2022, and since consolidated around the current cycle highs. An initial inspection of the higher timeframes suggests it could be 'overbought' - at least over the near-term. But to expect a solid reversal of gains would likely require the combination of a broader market downturn alongside loss of confidence in AI (with the latter feeling unlikely at present). Therefor, a broader market downturn could simply provide the catalyst for a pullback and for AI-bulls to load up at more favourable levels. And if a downturn does not occur? We could be looking at a breakout from its current consolidation.
Assuming the recent swing lows hold and prices break higher, it could trigger another bout of technical buying from those who identified the 'runaway gap'. Such gaps tend to appear around the midway point of a strong trend, and mark another round of strong buying as those who missed the first move cannot sit on their hands any longer. And with the AI frenzy unlikely to peter out for some time, perhaps a bullish breakout isn't so crazy (even if the charts suggest it could be overbought by some measures).
Snowflake: Gone with the Wind… 🌬(Un-)fortunately, we won’t rehash the story of Scarlett and Rhett, which took director Victor Fleming nearly 4 hours to recount. We will rather talk about Snowflake, which currently seems to be struggling though a snowstorm, fighting on toward the resistance at $203.62. We expect the share to gust above this mark to expand wave x in magenta before a counter movement should take hold. However, there is a 40% chance that wave alt.x in magenta could be finished by now. In that case, Snowflake would waft below the support at $110.27 to develop wave alt.2 in turquoise already, whose low should then be followed by a fresh upwards movement.
The language learning app Duolingo continues to outperform As tech related stocks break out higher, DUOL is another one not followed by many that needs to be watched.
While the company is yet to put in a profitable year, its revenue has grown from 71mn in 2019 to 369mn in 2022. GP margins remain very strong but NI is yet to turn positive.
Its total cash position has grown from 60mn in 2018 to 608mn in 2022, giving the company ample cash for expansion.
Current ratio is around 3.64 as of Dec 2022.
Very limited long term debt.
Cash per share is $15.63
Technically, the stock remains in a well established stage 2 uptrend where good pull backs on low volume could be considered as buying opportunities.
With the company expected to grow its revenue by another 37% this year and its losses to shrink further and put the company closer towards profitability, DOUL continues to be a solid growth stock.
Netflix might be on its way into another solid rallyYesterday's breakout above the VCP setup and the stock's close near its day highs could potentially signal a renewed up trend after a long consolidation period.
The VCP build up and breakout comes after the stock successfully traded above its 200 day MA for over 6 months.
With a stop below yesterday's low (more aggressive stop) or the most recent higher low (more conservative stop), long traders could be looking at a good gain here.
Call options could be another way to trade this as NFLX emerges out of a volatility contraction setup.
Relational Technical Analysis of GOOGLProfessional traders controlled this sideways pattern that held higher lows before the break to the upside and gap up above the W bottom completion resistance, which is now strong support. Short-term profit-taking at the resistance overhead is something to prepare for now.
Block: In the starting blocks… 👟Block hast just finished wave B in turquoise and is in the starting blocks to take off. Soon, the share should gain enough upwards momentum to make it above the resistance at $89.97 and even further from there. However, there is a 39% chance that Block could break away and slip below the support at $51.16. In that case, the share should develop a new low in the form of wave alt.2 in green first before heading upwards. This new low would then be located in the magenta-colored zone between $40.97 and $19.12.
TSLA go vroom?If you find this info inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Also, check out the links in my signature to get to know me better!
Following path pretty nice.
Levels playing well.
This would be my conservative Elliottwave bullish path.
But PA channel is holding and got a 1:1 ish. 🤨
Cheers!
Broadcom: Slide 🛝Broadcom is amusing itself in the playground consisting of the green zone between $648.08 and $577.41 and has lately been lingering mainly at the 78.60%-retracement at $621.54. However, soon, the share should switch over to the red slide leading below the support at $572.10 and into the lower green zone between $531.78 and $465.02 to finish wave 2 in green. This low should then grant the share new upwards momentum. There is a 37% chance, though, that Broadcom could prefer the jungle gym and thus climb above the resistance at $648.50. In that case, we would expect a new high in the form of wave alt.1 in green in the magenta-colored zone between $673.07 and $774.04 first, before the downwards movement can start again.
NASDAQ Bearish Divergence NASDAQ led the current bullish rally.
NASDAQ appears to be leading the bearish divergence in this stall aka consolidation.
Despite yesterday's candle appearing somewhat bullish with a long lower tail, there is a clear and present bearish divergence in BOTH the MACD and VolDiv; and both crossed under their lagging MA lines respectively.
The Orange box is the consolidation range and the yellow box is the range that the NASDAQ should not be closing the day in. If it does, there is a higher probability to break down out of the orange box, into the red. And again if it closes in the red box area, the indicators should be bearish looking enough to tell that one must watch the breakdown support level next.
Should be happening over the next couple of days.
Now, IF there is a news related spike, it must spike above and close outside of the orange consolidation box, and then remain above the box... for the last attempt to the upside target.
Heads up!
Appears that we will see an increase of volatility to either side soon... 80:20 down:up IMHO
Shopify: Lift Your (Shopping-)Bags! 🧺🛍Shopify should lift its laden shopping bags – or are they too heavy? We expect the share to move upwards, climbing above the resistance at $57.50 and further from there. There is a 31% chance, though, for Shopify to make a detour below the support at $38.90. In that case, the share would develop a new low in the form of wave alt.(B) in magenta first before heading upwards.
TSLA in APEX of Symmetrical TriangleHere we are looking at TSLA on the Daily TF…
As you can see, TSLA has been trading within a symmetrical triangle since November of 2022.
After being rejected from resistance in late February, TSLA made its way back to support, and so far has bounced towards resistance again. As you can see, price action has began tightening as it makes its way into the apex of the structure.
While my stance is currently neutral on which direction TSLA will break, it is clear that there will be a break of this structure in the coming days. If TSLA breaks down, we can expect it to make a move to its lows made in January of 2023. However, if it breaks upwards, I will look for it to run into resistance at the macro down sloping resistance line…
I will continue to monitor its development, and update you all as I see fit!
What do you think TSLA will do next? Let me know in the comments!
Cheers!!
Adobe: Well On The Way 👍Adobe is well on the way to completing wave B in green, although the course still has got some room to expand the current movement. However, before the resistance at $402.49 at the latest, it should turn downwards again. Thus, the share should drop below the support at $278.23 and into the adjacent gray zone between $278.96 and $227.74, where it should then conclude wave b in gray. There is a 32% chance, though, for Adobe to continue the ascent above the resistance at $402.49. In that case, we would consider wave alt.b in gray to be already finished.
Texas Instruments: Don’t Rush It! 🐢With a healthy respect, Texas Instruments is advancing toward the resistance line at $158.99 slowly but surely. Soon, the share should climb above this mark and push off into the green zone between $215.90 and $237.98 to complete wave B in green before turning downwards again. There is a 33% chance, though, that the course could shift away from the next resistance line, dropping below the support at $144.49 instead. In that case, we would expect Texas Instruments to develop wave alt.IV in gray in the gray zone between $130 and $107.68 before moving upwards anew.
Fiserv: Channel Your Energy 🪫🔋Fiserv is making use of our pink trend channel, where it has last finished wave (D) in magenta. Already, the share is on its way downwards to develop wave (E) in magenta as well as wave E in green, which should end at the channel’s lower edge. This low should then provide enough energy to lift the course above the resistance at $127.34. A 33% chance remains, though, that Fiserv could slip below the support at $87.03, thus triggering further descent. In that case, the share should expand wave alt.II in gray into the gray zone between $62.53 and $26.76 before moving upwards again.