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Block: In the starting blocks… 👟Block hast just finished wave B in turquoise and is in the starting blocks to take off. Soon, the share should gain enough upwards momentum to make it above the resistance at $89.97 and even further from there. However, there is a 39% chance that Block could break away and slip below the support at $51.16. In that case, the share should develop a new low in the form of wave alt.2 in green first before heading upwards. This new low would then be located in the magenta-colored zone between $40.97 and $19.12.
NYSE:XYZ
by MarketIntel
Broadcom: Slide 🛝Broadcom is amusing itself in the playground consisting of the green zone between $648.08 and $577.41 and has lately been lingering mainly at the 78.60%-retracement at $621.54. However, soon, the share should switch over to the red slide leading below the support at $572.10 and into the lower green zone between $531.78 and $465.02 to finish wave 2 in green. This low should then grant the share new upwards momentum. There is a 37% chance, though, that Broadcom could prefer the jungle gym and thus climb above the resistance at $648.50. In that case, we would expect a new high in the form of wave alt.1 in green in the magenta-colored zone between $673.07 and $774.04 first, before the downwards movement can start again.
NASDAQ:AVGO
by MarketIntel
NASDAQ Bearish Divergence NASDAQ led the current bullish rally. NASDAQ appears to be leading the bearish divergence in this stall aka consolidation. Despite yesterday's candle appearing somewhat bullish with a long lower tail, there is a clear and present bearish divergence in BOTH the MACD and VolDiv; and both crossed under their lagging MA lines respectively. The Orange box is the consolidation range and the yellow box is the range that the NASDAQ should not be closing the day in. If it does, there is a higher probability to break down out of the orange box, into the red. And again if it closes in the red box area, the indicators should be bearish looking enough to tell that one must watch the breakdown support level next. Should be happening over the next couple of days. Now, IF there is a news related spike, it must spike above and close outside of the orange consolidation box, and then remain above the box... for the last attempt to the upside target. Heads up! Appears that we will see an increase of volatility to either side soon... 80:20 down:up IMHO
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
1
TSLA in APEX of Symmetrical TriangleHere we are looking at TSLA on the Daily TF… As you can see, TSLA has been trading within a symmetrical triangle since November of 2022. After being rejected from resistance in late February, TSLA made its way back to support, and so far has bounced towards resistance again. As you can see, price action has began tightening as it makes its way into the apex of the structure. While my stance is currently neutral on which direction TSLA will break, it is clear that there will be a break of this structure in the coming days. If TSLA breaks down, we can expect it to make a move to its lows made in January of 2023. However, if it breaks upwards, I will look for it to run into resistance at the macro down sloping resistance line… I will continue to monitor its development, and update you all as I see fit! What do you think TSLA will do next? Let me know in the comments! Cheers!!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by GarethSolowayOfficial
14
Adobe: Well On The Way 👍Adobe is well on the way to completing wave B in green, although the course still has got some room to expand the current movement. However, before the resistance at $402.49 at the latest, it should turn downwards again. Thus, the share should drop below the support at $278.23 and into the adjacent gray zone between $278.96 and $227.74, where it should then conclude wave b in gray. There is a 32% chance, though, for Adobe to continue the ascent above the resistance at $402.49. In that case, we would consider wave alt.b in gray to be already finished.
NASDAQ:ADBE
by MarketIntel
Texas Instruments: Don’t Rush It! 🐢With a healthy respect, Texas Instruments is advancing toward the resistance line at $158.99 slowly but surely. Soon, the share should climb above this mark and push off into the green zone between $215.90 and $237.98 to complete wave B in green before turning downwards again. There is a 33% chance, though, that the course could shift away from the next resistance line, dropping below the support at $144.49 instead. In that case, we would expect Texas Instruments to develop wave alt.IV in gray in the gray zone between $130 and $107.68 before moving upwards anew.
NASDAQ:TXN
by MarketIntel
Fiserv: Channel Your Energy 🪫🔋Fiserv is making use of our pink trend channel, where it has last finished wave (D) in magenta. Already, the share is on its way downwards to develop wave (E) in magenta as well as wave E in green, which should end at the channel’s lower edge. This low should then provide enough energy to lift the course above the resistance at $127.34. A 33% chance remains, though, that Fiserv could slip below the support at $87.03, thus triggering further descent. In that case, the share should expand wave alt.II in gray into the gray zone between $62.53 and $26.76 before moving upwards again.
F
by MarketIntel
Financials Gain With Tech In PainWhen central banks raise rates, financial sector outperforms. That is until credit crumbles by which time all bets are off. As federal funds rates spike and stay elevated for longer, lending rates will climb higher relative to deposit rates. Net Interest Margin ("NIM") which is the difference between lending and borrowing rates continues to favour financial services firms. Inflation while softening remains high in developed and emerging markets. Hopes of Fed pivot on rates is fading as inflation is starting to spike again in some countries. Central banks on either side of the Atlantic are determined to tame it down. Continued rate hikes push economies into recession, crush consumer demand while increasing credit (corporate & personal) defaults. At that stage, even the financial industry (“financials”) starts to feel the pinch. But growth and tech stocks will be hurt even more. These stocks will plummet as present values of future distant profits get discounted at higher rates. As financials gain from attractive NIMs, growth stocks meanwhile are likely to get hammered from elevated rates. This case study articulates a spread trade to harness yields from these anticipated market moves. Investors with portfolio exposure to S&P Financial Select Sector Index ("Financials Index") can participate in industry's outperformance. This index provides exposure to banks, mortgage firms, consumer financial firms, capital markets and insurance firms, among others. A long position in CME E-Mini Financial Select Sector Futures and a short position in CME Micro E-Mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures will deliver >2.7x reward to risk ratio. HISTORICAL NEXUS BETWEEN TECH-HEAVY NASDAQ & FINANCIALS INDEX Over the last 10 years, the ratio of the Financials Index relative to Nasdaq-100 touched a high of 0.0917 in July 2013 and a low of 0.0342 in November 2020. The ratio rises when financials outperform Nasdaq. The ratio hovered around 0.072 on average from 2013 until the onset of pandemic linked monetary stimulus. It plunged when the monetary policy taps were let loose. Valuations of tech, high-growth, non-profitable firms soared relative to staid financials. However, with QE substituted by QT i.e., from monetary easing to tightening, financials are set to fight back. Frail demand with layoffs is the uncertain path ahead for tech. In contrast, financials appear poised with resilient balance sheets to swing the ratio back in its favour. DEMYSTIFYING S&P FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR INDEX The Financials Index is market cap weighted and rebalanced quarterly. As of end February 2023, there were sixty-seven companies in total with the top-10 representing 53% of the index. Top-10 index constituents by weight and their 12-month price targets are summarised below. Price targets (PT) for the top-10 point to an average appreciation of 12%. The average of maximum PT among the top-10 delivers a spectacular gain of 29%. However, the average of minimum PT among the same group shows a drop of 8%. Clearly analyst targets are skewed towards a healthy upside gain with limited downside risk. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE TO STAY HIGHER FOR LONGER In speaking to Barron’s, Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America said that the Fed is going to have to leave the rates at a higher structure than people may believe. The Fed were late to the game, and they have got to keep rates high for long until it works through the system. ELEVATED RATES HURTING DEMAND BUT INVESTORS REMAIN EERILY BULLISH Tech sector is feeling the heat of melting demand. Revenues of S&P 500 tech firms is expected to grow only 2% this year. It is the slowest since 2016 as per Bloomberg Intelligence. Q4 earnings have been sending worrying signals for the largest tech companies. Earnings from Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon & Meta missed estimates by 8% on average, as per Bank of America. Despite cracks in Q4 earnings, investors’ enthusiasm for tech stocks remains bubbly. Nasdaq is up 13% this year. Rising share prices coupled with shrinking earnings estimates is pushing Nasdaq valuations into lofty zone. The Nasdaq is now priced at 24-times one-year forward earnings, compared to an average of 20-times over the last decade. Overpriced by 20% based on historical standards. In contrast, financials price-earnings ratios, as represented by Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF is at a humble14.5-times. Every dollar of earnings per year requires $14.5 in financials compared to $24 in Nasdaq. In theory, the Nasdaq is 66% more expensive than financials. Bullish markets this year has pushed Nasdaq stocks well ahead of price targets. This phenomenon might be the result of a bear market rally or short covering or rising retail participation or all of them. Consequently, ratio of financials to Nasdaq has slumped 9% so far this year setting the scene for an attractive spread trade entry. TRADE SET UP As central banks are determined to keep inflation down by keeping rates higher for longer, this paper demonstrates a long position in CME E-Mini Financial Select Sector Futures expiring in June 2023 (“financial futures”) and a short position in CME Micro E-Mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures expiring in June 2023 (“Micro Nasdaq”) will deliver >2.7x reward to risk ratio. Spreads require that the notional values of each leg of the trade to be identical. Each financial futures provides an exposure to $250 x S&P Financial Select Sector Index. Meanwhile, each Micro Nasdaq provides an exposure of $2 x Nasdaq-100 Index. As of March 3rd, financial futures expiring in June 2023 settled at 446.4 while the Micro Nasdaq settled at 12,446.50. Balancing each leg of the trade requires 2-lots of financial futures (2 lots x $250 x 446.4 = $223,200) and 9-lots of Micro Nasdaq (9 lots x $2 x 12,446.50 = $224,037). Entry: 0.0359 (446.4/12,446.5) Target: 0.0405 Stop: 0.0342 Profit at Target: $ 28,800 Loss at Stop: $10,350 Reward-to-Risk Ratio: >2.7x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:XAFM2023Long
by mintdotfinance
NASDAQ Bounce - how high??Someone gave me a heads up earlier this week that ChatGPT returned an answer to say that the market will tank on 15 March 2023. While I see it a little more different, I still keep an open mind as a lot can happen in a week (as we know in recent years). So first up, ChatGPT is an amazing quantum leap and it is one of those triggers that form a tangent in our development time line. To me, broadly this is like when Google met Siri/Alexa. That said, perhaps the 15 March is a collation of expectations. Nonetheless, looking into the technical picture for the NASDAQ futures, NQ1!, gives a technical collation of the happenings in the past weeks. Previously, a retracement target was marked out on the weekly chart (faded yellow ellipse). Since then, the NASDAQ made a lower high, and pulled back to the 50% Fibonaccie retracement level and support level about 11,800. And Friday clearly broke out of trend. So, now how? First, we look at the green and red dotted lines. These are the TDST levels that need to be broken to have a trend in force. According to the current TD Sequential, the NASDAQ is still in a bullish trend, and just finished a Buy Setup on Thursday, hence a clockwork bounce thereafter expected (and happened). Next, looking at the range support resistances, we see the green and red rectangles. Breaking out or down with a decisive close and technical alignment (MACD and VolDiv) confirms the trend. Taking into account the MACD and VolDiv, both are retracing, but are not yet bearish. So taken together, we can expect a bounce, which probably just started. Watching the strength of the bounce is critical, and the first check in point is about 12,500. A trend line connecting the last two highs also point to an approximate area at 12,500 (yellow ellipse). Noted, the MACD is weakening, and so is the shorter term VolDiv. So not yet crazy bullish. Overall, expecting a lower high (at this point). And going back to the "15 March", although long range analysis not shown here, it appears that May to Oct is a deeper down time. Will update on this in time...
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Auguraltrader
Snowflake: Snowed Under ❄️Snowflake seems to be snowed under with work. The share has a great deal to do, but is currently delaying the anticipated ascent, gradually sagging towards the support at $110.27. There is a 33% chance that the course might drop below this mark, thus developing wave alt.2 in turquoise earlier already. However, we primarily expect it to climb above the resistance at $205.66 first to lodge the top of wave x in magenta before moving downwards again. Wave 2 in turquoise should then return Snowflake below $205.66 and carry it below the support at $110.27, introducing fresh upwards movement afterward.
NYSE:SNOW
by MarketIntel
1
Electronic Arts: Pushing the Right Buttons 🎮Electronic Arts has been pushing the right buttons and has made fine use of our pink trend channel, finishing waves (a) till (e) in violet. Indeed, the course has already made further progress, touching at the support at $109.27. Next, the share should gain even more downwards momentum and drop below this mark to complete wave B in turquoise. Afterwards, we expect Electronic Arts to climb above the resistance at $150.30 to conclude wave C in turquoise as well as wave (B) in red. Subsequently, the course should start a long journey to the south, falling back below $150.30 and below the supports at $109.27 and at $73.91. There, it should enter the green zone between $64.44 and $40.83 to finish wave 2 in green before turning upwards again.
NASDAQ:EA
by MarketIntel
Block: Playing Tag 🙃“You’re it!” Block calls, tapping on the magenta-colored zone and taking off. The share seems to be playing tag and has just caught the magenta-colored zone, finishing wave ii in magenta with one impulsive downwards spike. Next, the course should seek shelter above the resistance at $94.87, thus gaining further upwards momentum. However, there is a 32% chance for Block to lose its drive and to drop below the support at $69.16. In that case, the course should develop wave alt.ii in magenta first before heading southwards, abiding above the support at $51.16 along the way.
NYSE:XYZ
by MarketIntel
Intuit: Trust Your Gut 😊After it had started the ongoing descent so confidently at first, Intuit has been struggling in a sidewards movement. Now, the share should trust its gut and decide or rather intuit – pardon the pun! – to continue its journey to the south. We expect the course to drop below the support at $339.36, where it should complete wave B in green at about $303.29 before taking off again. Alternatively, Intuit could have already finished wave alt.B in green and thus climb above the resistance at $457.94 by now. We rate this alternative scenario with a probability of 38%.
NASDAQ:INTU
by MarketIntel