NASDAQ - Not yetAs outlined in the S&P500 weekly analysis. the technical bounce appears delayed. At the least, it looks like a higher low is being made, and would take another week or two before a higher high is achieved.
In light of these, the projection and targets have been adjusted to the end of July.
Techstocks
NASDAQ technical bounce as expectedPreviously, with a hit on target, a technical bounce was expected, and the end of last week... it happened!
The NASDAQ weekly is leading the charge with an overwhelming bullish candle for the week. MACD histograms are thinning out and weekly MACD are about to cross over.
Using the simple arrows, projections bring the NASDAQ to 13,600 where it should meet the weekly 55EMA.
The daily chart shows a clear break out to the HULL moving average, and has MACD crossed over already. The week ended with a bullish marubozu.
Bullish clearly...
Descending Channel Breakout for ADN?!?It appears as though ADN has broken flush to the upside of a descending channel which is drawn as two parallel declining lines drawn green on the chart, notice the rejection nearly exactly at the 200DMA.
On the KST there's a bullish cross where I've placed the green finger. More often than not when the KST gets this over-extended there's a sell-off immediately afterward with the rare exception of a continuation of s parabolic breakout on overwhelmingly bullish news.
A retrace to $1.40 is likely to re-test and build support on top of old resistance.
Or we're going to see a re-test of the 200DMA and a blue sky breakout.
Price target & trading range between $9.00 to $0.60c between now and the end of the year.
NASDAQ hit interim downside target, now what?As previously projected, the NASDAQ pushed further down in the last week, and with expected momentum, to hit the target in good time.
The daily chart shows the weekly action much clearer as the immediate resistance at 11725 failed and a quick drop ensued. The week did not follow through to end in downward momentum but instead clocked a small bullish harami. While unclear now, a technical bounce might be in the cards in the following week, and should show if it is happening by about mid-week.
Nasdaq: Bear is In-ChargeA typical characteristic of a bull market as seen is its significant highs are higher and its lows are higher.
However, the market has confirmed moving into bear when the market broke below the major uptrend on the 3rd week of 2022.
Now we could see the Bear is in-charge. And a typical characteristic of a bear market as seen is its significant highs are lower and its lows are lower.
Before 2022, my strategy was to buy on dips. However, starting this year when the major uptrend line was broken below, my focus now is to sell into strength when opportunity arises. Of course fundamentals also play a big part when Jerome Powell mentioned in December 2021 that U.S. inflation is "not transitory". Then we all know the Fed was preparing the environment for more interest rate hikes in 2022 and maybe beyond.
When things change, our strategy changes.
NASDAQ really fizzles?Two weeks ago, the NASDAQ jumped after bouncing off a support level and tested the 13K resistance... which appeared to have failed, given the Dark Cloud Cover candlestick ending to the week. The daily technicals do not yet tell of a down slope slip, but it should be following through. And if it does, then we have this Down Friday Down Monday thingy... means more downside to come.
The Weekly chart ended with a a candlestick that seem to stall the previous bullish candle. The weekly technicals are slightly bullish divergent.
Taken together, appears that we can expect some downside risk to the last low, probably see a higher low within the week, if at all.
The range is going to be a little wider than usual, until this consolidates out nicely and a new trend starts. So, let's see.
Marvell Technology appears to have set a bull trapBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 59.8.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 59.55 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 1.956% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.897% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.432% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 8 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 43 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ is not yet done with downward momentumThe dead cat bounce only lasted a couple of days, and it gave way soon and very quickly yesterday (pre-market). This breakdown was with decent downside momentum, and was also off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, as observed in the 4H intraday chart above.
By projecting forward using simple geometric extensions combined with Fibs, 10,800 is the next downside target (yellow arrows), which could happen swiftly or drag another week. Honestly, do not know which is worse.
In another view, we see a range from 12565 to 11700, which the latter would attempt to provide some support (aqua arrows). Breaking down and out of this range, similarly points to circa 10,800, but in a more swift take down.
Daily technicals employed here support the downside momentum and targets.
So, look for support early-mid next week, if we get a new intraday low, yeah?
USTECH100 Nasdaq : The bigger picture disaster of tech :( 22.4 Simplicity is king.
1) Rising wedge 2019 - 2022 - Jan 2022 breakout down.
2) Nasdaq is falling from a crazy over-priced high, big potential downside.
3) Descending trend-line of lower highs since breakout confirm down-trend.
4) Current trading range of the down-trend is 14,600 - 12,800
5) Break below 12,800 - 11,900 to 10,700 will very likely follow.
6) A break above 14,600 with a weekly close will be the end of the down-trend technically.
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NASDAQ in technical rebound - a bull trap?The NASDAQ (and other equities indexes) closed the week on a strong rebound, having reached a lower support (11700). The resulting weekly candlestick is one with a long lower tail, suggesting a possible test to regain the 13K level.
The daily chart closed the highest for the week, and similarly projects a somewhat cautious bullish outlook for the incoming week. I would be wary for sudden turnarounds, especially near the resistance levels, or when prices are near the declining 55EMA.
The weekly technicals are still intact for the downside target of 11K.
Be wary!
AAPL broke wma50/channel w/ LHLL; may retest 138-135 zone + TLAAPL is the last big tech to break, pulling down QQQ & SPY with it.
In this weekly chart, it just broke the green WMA50 line & also the upchannel. It seems to be making a M-pattern already with a lower high & a lower low thus confirming the downtrend. Despite a big relief rally bouncing from 140 zone last Friday, I think AAPL may still go down to my green 138-135 support zone. Any big relief rally will still be rejected by my yellow 155 Alert zone.
In the next few weeks, AAPL may want to retest the violet TL since 2017. Reaching either 135 or 120 will end the ABC correction & start a true rally.
AAPL at the 140 to 120 zone is already an attractive place to accumulate.
Pls note that 135 is a 0.618 retracement & 120 is a 0.786 Fib.
Not trading advice
Has the Nasdaq reached a bottom?The Nasdaq is trading at values similar to those of the fall of 2020, eroding all the gains accumulated during 2021.
It has fallen approximately 30% from the peak of November of last year, a fall that, when compared to that of February-March 2020, is practically of the same magnitude. Unlike that time, this time the price has still not touched the 200-day moving average, although it came very close to doing so. It seems as if a support was reached last Thursday May 12 to initiate a reversal that pushes prices higher.
During this century, the only times this index fell more than 30% were during the 2001 dot com bubble and the 2008 housing crisis, with falls of 80 and 50 percent, respectively. In other words, falls of this magnitude are only justified in the face of crises, bubbles or similar events. If another similar catalyst is not foreseen in the short to medium term, then I don't see why the price would continue to sink further. It may be a good opportunity to return to the technology sector now that many stocks are trading at pre-pandemic prices.
Tech stocks are oversoldVarious tech stocks that boomed during 2020 began to fall at different speeds starting in 2021, with February 8 being the turning point for most. A gradual recovery continued before reaching another peak in mid-July, at which point the crash was continuous and widespread. As of today May 15, 2022, the profits obtained since 2020 have evaporated for this type of stocks. A bottleneck is evident to which they have converged, from my perspective, a change in trend is foreseeable, with Thursday May 12 being the date on which they reached the bottom.
At current prices it could be a great opportunity to go long in this sector.
NASDAQ gave way into MayAnother down week in the NASDAQ, as expected. PReviousl expectations were generall in line, although how things panned out were more volatile... bearish for NASDAQ IMHO.
The weekly chart looks even worse now than previously, and it is not about breaking below 13K conclusively. It did a swooping technical rebound, only to be a dead cat bounce, where the next session wiped out the week's worth of effort to recover 13K. This resulted in a long upper tailed candle; in both charts showing the bearish momentum and that it is more likely to continue.
The 12600 light support held up for now, and given the candlestick patterns and technicals, further downside should be expected, albeit volatile attempts to test 13K.
Previously marked out 11700 for next support once 12600 gives way; downside target now projected (by Fibonacci projections) at 11,100, about early to mid-June 2022.
It is very possible to see a quick dip in the coming week to 11,700, then a sizeable rebound, only to push down yet again.
Let's see... tread carefully.
Bearish is as it bearish does.
AAPL HHHL b/w wma 20 & 50; last tech to fall? ; 3 crucial zonesDid AAPL just made a higher low? It is the only major tech stock that is preventing the index from falling. Will it hold the blue upchannel or be the last one to break down after this FED BULLTRAP?
AAPL is now trading between WMA 20 & the green WMA 50 in this weekly chart. Monitor carefully these 3 impt zones:
1) Yellow Alert Zone: If AAPL holds 155 the WMA 50 & bounces up to break above WMA20 & all the VWAP
resistances, The higher high higher low will be confirmed & the blue uptrend channel will continue.
(Just maybe ABC wave 4 was completed & wave 5 has started?)
2) Red Warning Zone: If AAPL fails 155 the green WMA 50, it has greater chance of breaking below the
upchannel & fall into my 150 to145 Warning Zone.
3) Green BUY ZONE: If AAPL fails both 155 & 145, it will go down to retest 138. This will fall under my
BUY ZONE between 138 to 135 levels.
Note also that in case of a prolonged downturn & consolidation, AAPL may retest the red uptrend line from 2017.
Note that 138 is also the top of a previous wave 1 & the OCT 2021 bottom. If this plays out, the big revised ABC corrective wave will end in a double bottom near 138 & THEN THE FINAL WAVE 5 SHALL START.
Note that the 2022 ABC wave 4 consolidation is a running flat.
Not trading advice. Hope this analysis may help someone make porifit or simply prevent big losses.
Pls like, follow & share for me to make more analysis.
NASDAQ Broken below 13KBAD NEWS here... for many, not all.
The NASDAQ followed through with the heavy downside momentum, and broke below 13,000! Worse, it closed the week below the 13,000 (and the 12,900 intraday buffer set out earlier).
The weekly chart show nice long candles that end the weeks very close to the low or at the low, showing the continued downside momentum that is not at all easing. MACD suggest more downside in the weeks to come, although the RPM is suggesting some mitigation in the downslide.
12600 is a light support, and 11730 is the next major support (50% Fib).
The daily chart is bearish clearly. Having to reclaim above 13K would also mean a gap closure above 13180.
While the daily candlestick is suggesting downside momentum, the MACD and RPM are indicating some mitigation on the downside, at least for some reprieve.
Overall, May does not look good for the NASDAQ NQ1!
More down drafts expected.
12,600 expected to hold briefly, if at all.
Next major support 11,730.
AMZN Back to 1300, Nasdaq Back to 7000Back at the end of 2018, I made an attempt to call a longer term bear market for big tech. Linked below are some of those posts. I was new to markets, and all I did was look at the chart. Even back then, the charts for Apple and Amazon looked ridiculous, but now it's undeniable that they've seen parabolic growth. This is the AMZN chart zoomed further in, where you can see how I was dead wrong at the end of 2018, as the money printer and QE kicked in again, taking the market to new highs shortly before the pandemic hit. Then, the pandemic hit and the Fed exhausted the last of its firepower. Will they save the market again?
Above, I marked the 1600 and 1300 levels as areas of support, should the current level fail. Also shown on my Amazon chart is the long term uptrend, which has now been broken and confirmed as resistance. I expect markets to fall back to pre-stimulus levels, as the 2021 rally was largely "fake." Even though some of these companies may continue to remain profitable, I think some disappointing earnings will start to trickle in, signaling a depressing outlook for growth in the near future. Take Netflix, for example. It's already getting closer to testing some of those earlier levels. Perhaps it's a "canary in the coal mine" situation.
What's especially concerning is that even companies that have exceeded expectations (like Tesla) cannot sustain a rally. Look at that earnings pump and dump:
This implies that market participants are exiting regardless, and booking profits after many years of easy economic policy. Now here's something truly hilarious. Elon Musk and Bill Gates claim to be shorting each other's companies! What happens in this scenario? They both still profit. Billionaires are just playing games.
Here are some levels marked for Tesla. If Elon continues to innovate and do well, TSLA may not drop quite as much as some others, but that's still a lot of profit on the table. He's even sold some of his own shares himself:
And Microsoft:
Why Would the Fed Just Let It Happen?
The easiest way to fix inflation is perhaps to just simply let things unwind. As big corporations lose profits, smaller businesses close, and people lose their jobs, their homes...a big financial crunch occurs that shocks the living daylights out of our systems. New solutions will need to be found, some of which may seem obvious, such as taxing the wealthy and corporations much more heavily. Some we haven't even dreamt of yet. Here's a speculation: Community living becomes more desirable, and new small businesses will need to emerge to tailer to those communities. A world owned by corporations already causes pressure on communities and small businesses, where your boss is forced into implementing oppressive working conditions to stay afloat. All the while, your next door neighbor begins trading Dogecoin and digital images to finally have a glimpse at paying off his debt or buying a home. It's an escape into a black void that consumes your soul, and the soul of society.
Ready for the collapse?
Let's see what happens.
This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
NASDAQ (NDQ): Bounce Or DieAnyone with two eyes can see price action is absolutely dreadful .
We have seen rejection after rejection. War is still raging, FED still hasn't done anything, and the market is begging to be saved.
This analysis is basically going to be a hedge against my bearish bias which I have strongly held for many months now as we have been heading into this unprecedented environment .
Going to go over just a few things as we head into the rest of the week. There will be some hidden gems throughout .
The first thing will be the elephant in the room which is this Monthly candle of Darkness ; This candle closes at the end of the week and I suspect the market is going to do everything it can to improve the close of it.
I know usually the strongest move dictates the trend and I do believe the trend is still Bearish (obviously) but a bounce here is very possible.
We have just endured the first series of earnings, they were about what I expected. Just enough to make it by, while Alphabet misses. Now as long as markets don't puke on open tomorrow, I suspect the market will be forward-looking once more, irrationally .
Nothing aside from Nuclear Warefare or Oil catastrophe is going to send the market spirally at this very moment.
Another thing that helps the case for a short-term bounce is the VIX : A really good rule of thumb for good R:R Entry is not when VIX is at support but rather when it is at resistance . VIX has bounced sharply to a zone of interest and there will be one of two outcomes. Breakdown = Bullish or Breakout = VERY Bearish
Also going to mention the DXY. I've been 100% against the crowd every step of the way when it comes to the US Dollar. I believe that money finds itself in the most efficient position at all times, which is why the saying "But there is still sidelined money" is just a complete Myth. This is also fundamentally why DXY has been soaring while everyone has been Bearish on it for months. Holding cash even with inflation at 8% has proven more efficient than holding anything in equity markets over the last 6 months. It is all laid out to understand.
That being said, as I'm still bullish on DXY just based on the number of technical breakouts and the environment we are in, I consider the possibility it sees some consolidation in this area. As money will creep back into assets, DXY will consolidate before any more big moves. This area is very reasonable to predict this.
The last thing I'll mention is the US02Y yield and its correlation with the FED and their decision behind Rates. It has become a belief of mine that Powell or the FED just simply follow the US02Y yield regarding its policy. You can accurately see it based on this chart. Not only this but it is reaching a point of Very Strong resistance after an unprecedented vertical rocket up.
To follow up on the US02Y for just a basic lesson, as the US02Y begins to top and reverse, this means (at least historically) the FED will begin walking back on the Hawkish rhetoric and the FED predicted Rate hikes would have peaked.
Ultimately meaning, markets will rise on this knowing there may be light at the end of the tunnel.
I can completely explain this occurrence logically but what I can't explain is how they fight inflation or avoid a hyperinflationary environment if they reverse policy without actually following through. Not to mention their planned QT.
For now, all I can say is trust the parallels here in the original chart above. The market loves them. Just have to navigate level to level from here on out. If a bounce happens here, it would also confirm the Bullish Divergence on the RSI.
Losing this level spell disaster in my opinion.
Hope this helps!
The Bears Come For Google Well, well, well, this is precisely what I was talking about in my post about big tech. This is just a short post, showing some levels. These overheated stocks are finally getting a taste of profit-taking. Netflix managed to actually break below its 200 week moving average. If Google does the same, another 50%+ drop is possible. On the conservative side, Google can simply head towards the 200 MA and bounce. However, I really think there are some people sitting on enormous profits that have yet to start realizing those gains. Let's see! Will GOOGLE tank another 50-80% from here?
I am of the general opinion that markets will need to return to pre-COVID levels (at best) in order to correct current inflation, and in order for the economy to begin sorting itself out with significant policy change. This is because the market has largely been propped up due to money printing and QE.
This is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not financial advice.
-Victor Cobra