NVDA short should drop in price to 190-195NVDA SHORT 21/04/22 07:00 GMT
14 year old English trader trading on demo accounts currently gaining experience in the markets.
NASDAQ:NVDA should drop to around the 200-205 price mark because of many factors such as inflation, monetary policy tightening, and current market sentiment.
NVDA has been deeply affected by the current market sentiment dropping 19.65% in the last month. This large price drop was caused by many things such as inflation, inflation usually negativity impacts growth stocks and positively or neutrally impacts value stocks and as NVDA is a high growth stock it has some of the best growth aspects in its sector. So, inflation has caused a large downfall for NVDA and the way the fed is aggressively trying to combat inflation suggests there is a hard landing coming for the markets. Soring electricity prices has caused NVDA to have higher operating costs. One single semiconductor factor takes up 100 megawatts per hour and usually run between 10-12 hours in a day taking around 1,100 megawatts per day. Which means it could deeply affect their earnings this quarter causing their stock price to fall. NVDA will continue to drop because of these reasons and as the Ukraine war continues on NVDA earnings will continued to be affected. NVDA is a strong buy for longer term but during this bear market with potential of recession of 35% in the next to year (predicted by Goldman Sachs) and the aggressive fed combating inflation has never been done before without a full-blown recession which suggests a tough period for the market is coming as well as NVDA
Market wrap 9:00 GMT
NVDA is currently at 20.65 which I predicted earlier the chance that NVDA ends up in the positive quite high as it is classed as oversold by the RSI which could pick up a lot of potential buyers but I can see NVDA trading between 205-195 price region over the next few days. The main reason why NVDA’s stock dropped 6.05% today was because of the death cross which is when the 50-day moving average moves below the 200-day moving average which suggest this bear market is here to stay and NVDA’s stock will continue to drop. This suggest to us that this market is not going to be short term and as the us ten-year bond rose 2.93% today which will negatively impact stocks because they usually are inversely propionate. This is why I believe NVDA should drop even further to around the 190-195 price level which could be another opportunity for a buy position I believe over the next few days the stock could rally 3 or 4% which could be a good opportunity to short.
Semiconductors stocks such as AMD or intel. AMD has dropped by 22.05 % in the last month and suggests a strong sell signal as it hit below 90 per share today. Intel has dropped 2.03% in the last month but as it is a more mature company this is expected. This suggests to us that the semiconductor market is set to fall even further as the reason I mentioned early about high energy prices causing semiconductor companies to have a negative impact on their earnings. Causing people to take short positions in these companies. This also shows the impact of inflation on growth stocks as I talked about earlier
To conclude I do not believe that NVDA will have a complete trend reversal against the S&P in this current bear market and will continue to fall has an influx of negative news continues to be delivered on inflation and energy prices. As well as the increasing fear of a recession approaching.
Techstocks
Palantir: Potential inverse Head and Shoulders forming?Palantir Technology - Short Term - We look to Buy at 12.46 (stop at 11.59)
A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders is forming. A break of 14.87 is needed to confirm follow through bullish momentum. The medium term bias remains bullish. Preferred trade is to buy on dips. News events could adversley affect the short term technical picture. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 19.99 and 23.15
Resistance: 14.86 / 17.46 / 19.99
Support: 12.42 / 10.27 / 9.74
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Correlation Between BTC and NDXTNumerous podcasts and other news sources suggest that there exists a strong positive correlation between BTC price and the price of tech stocks. To test this notion, I plotted the BTC closing price and the NASDAQ 100 Technology Sector (NDXT) closing price on the daily time frame. Based on visual inspection of the upper panel of the chart, there are time periods during which there exists a strong positive correlation, time periods during there exists little to no relationship, and time period during which there exists a strong negative correlation.
Given in the lower panel is the Pearson correlation coefficient value over time (red, white, and red solid line), the 95% confidence interval for the correlation coefficient (boundaries of the confidence interval is given by the solid cyan lines), the lower limit of the correlation coefficient (lower limit = -1.0, white dotted line), upper limit for the correlation coefficient (upper limit = +1.0, white dotted line), and probability value (P value, yellow histogram) for the correlation coefficient. Note that the correlation coefficient is considered statistically significant (i.e., highly unlikely to be due to chance) when the P value is less than 0.05.
When the correlation coefficient line is green, there is a statistically significant positive correlation between the BTC price and the NDXT price.
When the correlation coefficient line is red, there is a statistically significant negative correlation between the BTC price and the NDXT price.
When the correlation coefficient is white, there is no meaningful relationship between the BTC price and the NDXT price.
An important caveat to note: Each Pearson’s correlation coefficient is calculated on 20 days of price data.
This is not financial advice. I am not your financial advisor. This is my opinion.
XLK Technology Sector: Signals of DivergenceAs the growth sector #XLK and #NDX makes lower lows there are spots of divergence displaying, which could pose as some upward impulses this week. In that case it could help to normalize a temporary ‘higher low’ in terms of the holistic outlook.
My TradingView charts (found at #bsdvs23) have mostly been bearish across the board with a few ‘potential’ bullish intraday traders here-and-there based on the broader technical structure. But that is neither here nor there since the major outlook of the trends is what is most important.
All that being said, signs of divergence are now signaling that this area of ‘the higher low’ (big picture) could be setting up for the next leg upward impulse movement in an effort of retesting the lower highs. Granted this will take ‘time and price’ to get to that level and coincidentally coincides with the major earnings session upon us.
And I should point out the bearish side of things as well to ensure the audience has the perspective of both sides here. The downside risk is the markets heading for those March lows. Something I have been very focused on the entire month of April in my YouTube videos, Facebook posts, and postings within TradingView.
All-in-all, divergence is poking its head and that should provide caution to the wind for the bears.
We will keep watch and monitor the Futures Markets as well as the sector spiders and other stocks for turning points going into the economic events this week as I will notate those below.
Mon, Apr 18
- 10:00am NAHB Housing Market Index
- Day 1 IMF Meetings
- 4:00pm FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
Tue, Apr 19
- 8:30am Building Permits
- Housing Starts
- Day 2 IMF Meetings
Wed, Apr 20
- 10:00am Existing Home Sales
- Day 3 IMF Meetings
- 10:30am Crude Oil Inventories
- 2:00pm Beige Book
Thu, Apr 21
- 8:30am Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
- Unemployment Claims
- 10:00am CB Leading Index
- Day 4 IMF Meetings
- 10:30am Natural Gas Storage
- 1:00pm Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Fri, Apr 22
- 9:45am Flash Manufacturing PMI
- Flash Services PMI
$PYPL Looking for a Breakout to fill Gap down from $160+ to $200Let's start with the Tech side of things:
1. Has flipped the PARSAR bullish on the daily and is about to flip it bullish on the weekly
2. Accum/Distri has begun to climb sideways and upwards on the daily and the weekly after being down since Oct last year
3. MACD is been flipped bullish on the Daily and is about to be flipped bullish on the weekly
This is just a few of the technicals that have turned bullish in the last few weeks, there are several more.
Analysts:
1. MoffettNathanson's Lisa Ellis raised her buy recommendation to $190 this past week
2. Deutsche Bank's Bryan Keane raised his buy recommendation to $200
Why are they Bullish?
Keane met with Paypal's CFO John Rainey this past week, following which he wrote that: "Beyond new product initiatives, PYPL also stands to benefit from expanding into China later in the year (catalyst for ) as well as through increased omni-channel capabilities as it integrates card based solutions and Zettle."
Zettle by PayPal is its point-of-sale solution; its maker was bought by PayPal in 2018.
Ellis wrote that she believes the stock is very attractively priced, and that she " upside from the strong U.S. eBay growth (27% in 4Q21), a macro recovery in China and other international markets, and the rollout of new services, including , crypto investing, and bill payment."
3/20/22 TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQ ( NASDAQ:TQQQ )
Sector: Miscellaneous (investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $--B
Current Price: $53.17
Breakout price: $52.40
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $50.15-$40.85
Price Target: $67.30-$68.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 40-44d
Contract of Interest: $TQQQ 4/29/22 55c
Trade price as of publish date: $4.20/contract
Microanalysis of the NASDAQ 4HIn a follow up analysis of the recent favourite, the NASDAQ futures NQ1!, it appears that a possible higher low above 13K has been registered and it is now consolidating below 13,360 (yellow line). Any effort above has been met with swift downdrafts (red ellipse marking the upper tails). If this continues, a breakdown below 13K is expected, and currently is expected to 12,800 target.
Alternatively, a 4H close above the yellow line would signal a breakout of the consolidation zone, and affirmation of a higher low near 13K support.
Technically, 60/40 skewed towards the bears.
Is this the calm before the storm?
Asian into European opening hours would be interesting...
PALANTIR:New Beginnings On The Horizon NYSE:PLTR is now set for new beginnings as a major cycle has ended for this stock.
Recently the price has been ranging in the the 8.6-11.4 area which is a high demand area ideal for the current accumulation phase .In fact there is a great probability for the bulls to take the lead and push the price significantly up , taking advantage of the nice potential of PLTR .
Although many technical indicators are already anticipating a rally, it is more reasonable to wait for a close above the 12.6 as a confirmation before the entry .
After the confirmation ,the price is likely to reach the first target ,and potentially the second and the third targets if PLTR succeeds to close significantly above the first and the second target areas successively.
For the trade management It is advisable to :
Close 50% of the position when the first target is hit and move the stop to the entry area .
Close 25% when the second target is hit and move the stop to just below the first target area .
Close the remaining 25% when the third target is hit .
The 9.5 level would represent a reasonable stop level which has the advantage of being tighter than the 8 level despite the latter offering more freedom for the movement of price .
FERVENTLY BROUGHT TO YOU BY MANHATTAN STOCKS .
ALL REQUESTS ,SUGGESTIONS AND REMARKS ARE WELCOME .
NASDAQ indecisivenessAfter its rebound, the NASDAQ index is in a small range of 13800 to 143000. It appears to be trapped in a zone and break out or breakdown will follow a decisive move. When that move will happen?
Have to wait for it and watch it happen... then we will know.
Daily technical indicators suggest a skew to the downside, but the 4H technical indicators indicate a potential bounce up.
Let's wait and see what develops...
#MSTR showing us the way for #BitcoinWill it Break the current bear flag that is forming?
How it performed during the Tech wreck (like all tech stocks)
which had no earnings , but relied on future projections of user growth ( eyeballs & clicks )
Lower prices seem inevitable if his #Bitcoin holdings go into the Red
NASDAQ under the microscopeWas just looking at the NASDAQ futures and the price actions over the market holiday yesterday amidst the hype and concerns over Russia-Ukraine issues.
In the NQ1! 4H chart, recent multiple failures of the 55EMA (4H and Daily) technically projected downside for the NASDAQ (amongst other equity indexes). There appears to be a cyclical fear pattern over the last month, and in this current cycle, it should peak down today. Am expecting a spike down type of peak, that tests the support, breaks it somewhat and then a likely rebound ensues (as previously posted that NQ1! should be testing support).
That's what the technicals are hinting to me anyways. There is a near support, but I am looking at possible spike down to 13,000 in the coming days.
Longer term still looks volatile, and longer term target is still lower for now. Absolutely plausible for a major DCB and then a massive turn of events.
I do have a date in mind though... 10 MAY 2022. Watch that date!
Stay safe and well!!!
sell MSFT tradeHigh probability trade for NASDAQ:MSFT stock. I recommend opening 2 positions . 1st Position with Stop loss and take profit as shown here .the 2nd position has the same stop loss but with 261 take profit , when the first position closes and hits the take profit , move the Stop loss to entry price for the second position and wait for it to hit 261 or wait for a take profit update in this post .
This is a high probability trade with a great potential risk reward superior to 5 . In the markets There is never a 100% win probability .The idea is to have the odds in our favor and to be much more right than wrong .
Corrections are needed to create buying opportunities Refer to my related link below see the similarities in the charts, as you can see overall markets are breaking down on global tensions, inflation and FED interest rate hikes. most stocks have been parabolic for 6 years now, with March 2020 barely putting a dent in the growth.
Can see my limited risk entry points on MSFT. Doesn't mean if markets don't change I'm happy to buy back in until then research.
AAPL analysisIt looks like NASDAQ:AAPL is trying to come back up to break and close above the green line .If it succeeds to do so , then there is a high probability that it reaches the (200-203) area with a possible continuation towards the 210 mark , depending on how the market behaves around the 200-203 area. (The market must act with bullish strength around the 200-203 area in order to continue up to the 210 )
In fact if the market succeeds to break and close above the 210 , it would be reasonable to aim for the 255 mark as a second target .
On the other hand , if the attempt(s) to close above the green area fails , then the market might go down to the red area (155-157) which if broken , has a high probability to send price downwards to around the 137.5 .