NVDA Nvidia Exciting Upward Trend! NVDA (Nvidia) is an exciting stock to be in. Given their processing tech and the ability to branch into many cloud businesses such as gaming, processing, and storage, their technology has become a necessity, and demand consistently exceeds supply.
I got into NVIDIA as a long-term growth play when it was trading at $360. The breakout above previous ATH with volume was an obvious signal to buy, along with STRONG fundamentals and macroeconomic environment making it a recipe for the next rocket.
I don't typically buy into overbought stocks, but with the environment around stocks like TSLA and AAPL making it obvious a tech bubble was forming, it looked like a stock that wasn't getting as much attention yet given the news cycles were sparse, and product launches upcoming in Q4 were going to be great fodder for future growth.
I played it right, and the stock went all the way up to $585, now in a correction pattern.
Based on the Fib extensions and Elliot wave patterns, this is a very healthy growth stock with potential to shatter its ATH in the next 6 months.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional and I draw charts for my own education and keeping track of my trades to know when to get in and when to get out. I'm always open to constructive feedback so feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. Thank you!
Techstocks
AMD short-term correction setup, long-term BULL caseAMD (Advanced Microdevices) has been on a tear, and for many good reasons. Still, note the short-term correction and whether all its current growth potential has already been priced in.
AMD gained strong profitability in 2016 and beyond posting strong and accelerating results with the success of its Ryzen processors.
AMD's ability to both produce and deliver more quickly than the industry Goliath Intel has had many rushing into this stock. Most interesting was the recent rotation of traders from Intel into AMD (though one would think not to bet against Intel, based on all history).
In this chart, we started with the Weekly pulling back the curtain on historical support and resistance trends. We then analyzed the impulse started end of 2015 / beginning of 2016 which coincides with the company's strong product releases and profitability.
In recent times, the company has been accelerating its success, now proving a strong contender against the traditional leader Intel, and further the acceleration of digital transformation due to the 2020 pandemic.
Note the end of this major first wave of the impulse. The stock may retest its high around $93, but we'd expect that it's more likely to see a correction towards $60 in the short term, though given the strength of this asset it would be unlikely to get all the way there. Still, one could set some buy ladders and try and get lucky with buy orders just above $60 and $50.
In the mid- to longer-term we expect this stock to break it's ATH and search for what could be a larger 3rd wave to the upside as tech innovation further accelerates worldwide.
Disclaimer: I am not a professional. Analysis is my thoughts and for my own education and revelations on trade setups. I am more than open to feedback or being pointed to resources that can improve my analysis. Thank you!
Nasdaq sell continuation - Long term Fibonacci retraceHello traders and analysts,
We are looking at the over extension completed - in which we have previously analysed in private and have been short already from the 1.786 extension.
What is Nasdaq showing us right now?
A discount price offering in the market -
2 x weekly bearish candles.
A break of a steep ray line from March to August highs.
Take your Fibonacci from the March low to August high.
Our levels for Targets correlate with 50% to 61.8% - as good healthy targets.
See the SPX link for further information regarding the full break down on the technical side - the application is present here.
What does the COT data tell us?
AVG Long Short Total L% S% Net
Avg_13 14,986 10,525 25,510 59% 41% 4,461
Avg_20 14,197 10,762 24,958 57% 43% 3,435
Avg_50 14,525 10,440 24,965 58% 42% 4,085
In the last few weeks - the shift of longs has now switched from Long to short - with 44% long, 56% short in sentiment.
Keep a look out for volatility now with sell offs in US equities or profit taking and expect retail decisions to be following the decision of the fellow sheep.
If you are currently short - always keep in mind your risk management.
We will release our view to the public viewing of the Russell2000, US30 and UK FTSE100.
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Please feel free to share your view - we enjoy comments with some depth.
To those of you who follow - many thanks for the continued support, we passed our 100 Follower milestone.
Take it easy out there,
Team Lupa
Beyond congestion, could move to monthly highs and beyondAfter some very assertive upward moves, Netflix was setting up to test all time highs and set a monthly high before the market sell-off. Fib levels were useful to some degree but daily, weekly, and monthly resistance may be more reliable indicators shown by the congestion zone highlighted in yellow. Entry above $518 may get caught in the congestion zone, whereas entry above $532 should be safe to reach the first fib target, hopefully moving beyond the monthly breakout level and to all time highs.
Pluralsight long with tighter stops TA,
- MACD golden
-RSI heading up
-Demand tail daily rejection of trendline and support
-200ema bounce
- Lower volume on red days
FA,
- Long online education. Short legacy universities
SL: 17.7 (-7.2%)
PT1: 21.1
PT2: 22.3 (+17.3%)
This is holding up surprisingly well when the market is correcting.
COVID Tech vs. RoW Tech vs. Reopening StocksAfter the big drop Thursday, this is a quick 3-month performance review of some of the classic names that fit into each of these 3 groups
We can see that COVID tech (Tesla, Zoom, Plug Power) sold off, reopening trades (cruise lines, banks) rebounded and in the middle were some tech favourites that fared a little better (Alphabet, Twitter etc)
NASDAQ - I won't panic, sorry.Nasdaq's bull run was unreal. Out of this world. Irrealistic, many would say.
We all knew this was going to happen at some point.
Call me delusional, overly optimistic, or even naive.
But I am not panicking just yet.
We broke through resistance and a pull-back to the new support is a healthy signal. We need the Nasdaq to slow down, we need to put a break to impulse investing, to unreasonable pumps, and, most importantly, to the media pressure.
If I was to treat this chart as a stock, I would place a limit order on the bounce, aiming for a perfect textbook entry point. I know that a bull-run will most likely follow after that.
I might wrong, of course. After all, trading is not an exact science and I'm not considering fundamentals as well as behavioral finance in my analysis.
However, I just feel it is too early to call this a crash.
I will definitely be concerned if we break through the support line. Not until then, though.
When it comes to my trading activity, I had already skipped trading tech for the past week or so, as I felt this was coming this week.
I will now sit on the sidelines until I get some clarity. I might be back on Tuesday with new setups, or maybe the week after. If the sell-off continues I might add more short setups, as long as there is some rationale behind.
Time now to be grateful for our wonderful August, study, enjoy a little break and hope for a new direction soon.
I would love to hear your short-term outlook about the Nasdaq, where do you see it heading in September, and how this is going to affect your trading (or investment) plan.
Topping up #AR9. Seems to be finding a base here.Topping up here
TA,
- Trend line support
- 20EMA daily
- Ascending triangle
- RSI relatively oversold
- Short term resistance at 0.6 show by high volume. Good place to take some profits if you intend to.
Concerns,
- Recent earnings and 50% loss in operating revenue. However, the earnings reaction was neutral which shows strong hands holding this.
- If negative momentum continues, could see 0.35 in the short term. Should bounce there(first touch rejection 90% of the time)
FA,
Fundamentally, I am betting on the the team and the trust they've developed over the last 1.5 decades
It's quite obvious that the next decade will be dominated by data,cloud and IoT. Cyber security is the back bone for this next paradigm and it is highly unlikely governments will outsource data security to a non-Australian company. AR9 has built this trust over the last 1.5 decades. Trust is hard to replicate on balance sheets.
Gig economy winner. $FVRR or $UPWK?FA,
- Structural headwinds through gig economy, freelancing and 'escape the rat race' theme
- 3Y revenue growth 22%
- Improving gross margins. 70%
- Recent insider purchases
- Like shopify, but for talent. Online talent marketplace.
-Value? Market cap half of Fiverr with revenue twice as much.
TA,
- Major trend reversal. Short term moving averages crossing Long term MA
- Trendline support
- 120MA support 4H
- Higher highs and lows
Concerns,
- Less than expected revenue growth during lockdown. YOY growth 19% at $87.5M
Main competitor Fiverr reported YoY growth of 82% at 47.1m. Growth is key.
- Fiverr reporter a net loss of only -$0.1M while UPWK reported a loss of -$10M.
-Freelancers prefer Fiverr over Upwork.
- Fiverr better glassdoor ratings (4.3 Vs. 3.8)
- Higher volume on red days
Seems more like a technical trade considering the above points or a value play. Fiverr is still the better company fundamentally. Until Upwork can show above significant growth rates, the stock would not gain much momentum. 20% growth for a growth stock with people looking for jobs online is not enough in my opinion.
Breakout or wait for pullback? Market leader with high RS.FA,
- Brilliant financial position and poised for growth
- Foremost stock with significant subscription revenue model.
- Market leader
- RS rating 88. EPS rating 99
- ROE:39%
- Sales growth 3Y : 23%
TA,
- Wyckoff Accumulation
- If price closes above 470, it's a clear sign of strength(SOS)
- Higher highs and higher lows. Supply drying up.
- MACD daily golden cross
- Through this whole rally, ADBE has never dipped below 40ema which further confirms it's high relative strength and the status of a market leader.
- Perfect entry would be if price can consolidate and get closer to 20 and 40EMA.
Risks,
- Overextended from moving averages
- Pressure on growth stocks
Long term trend reversal thanks to CovidMost tech stocks have fared exceptionally well during the crash.
Some of them were trending sideways for years or in a long term downtrend for many quarters.
Covid was the catalyst that reversed their downtrend and proved their existence to the broader market.
The uptrend is almost confirmed. Need to wick past the $100 level for full confirmation.
I'll be looking to enter at a test of 120 EMA again.
Ideal entry : Wick past 100 and retest that level + 120ema touch
Seems unlikely when the optimism over tech stocks is high, but it will come.
ROKU SQUEEZEVery Curious to see how this plays out. Not sure if bullish or bearish so i'll sit this one out until it makes some more sense. It Does seem to have a strong support but the resistance isn't rising. On the other hand it is tapping the bottom of the bollinger band. Just want to document this as reference for similar scenarios in the future.
If you come across this, please give me some input as to what it is that you see.
$DDOG finally pulls back. Holding a key level.FA,
- Revenue up 87% YOY
- DBNRR(net retention rate) above 30%
- 63% of customers using 2 or more products
- Customers with ARR of $100k+ grew +89% YOY.
- Guidance of 62% revenue growth this quarter and 54% a full year.
- Gross margin>70%
- Rule of 40 fulfilled. 80% revenue growth- 4% EBIT margin = 76%.
- Good financial health
- Covid tailwinds
TA,
- The red levels are the daily levels. Daily candle rejected strongly( long-tail) off 72.15 and both the preceding candles closed above 75.00.
- Daily 120EMA
- RSI oversold
Price could very well go further down from here. I would look at entering again at the mid-'60s if so.
The bubble will pop soon. I FOMO'd into Apple. Buy ASAP.I'm just going on instinct.
I haven't had a red month in 2020.
I even am winning on my wheat short when I have no idea what I'm doing.
Why be careful? I have limited risk and I'm not using stupid size I'm not an idiot, but since I keep winning, might as well go machine gun and buy or sell anything I fancy.
Some people will talk about "significant levels" "oh no be careful it's close to a level" haha stocks only go up. Here, 450 is gone.
451.
Some people make $10 an hour. I'm making like $10 a second or something.
Oh this bubble is going to explode but boy oh boy I am going to ride it to the top just like with crypto (altcoins).
And then I'll short it to the ground as it violently collapses.
BUY BUY BUY BUY! Be aware it can gap down. It can gap down alot so make sure you are covered.
THIS IS NUTS. I LITERALLY JUST BOUGHT.
STOCKS ONLY GO UP.
BUY QUICK!
THE VENEZUELA STOCK MARKET WENT UP 100 BILLION PERCENT.
I usually don't trade stocks but when it's like this... And same with crypto I'll go back to it if it goes like this. I adapt.
How can spreads be so cheap with certain brokers? xd GG!
All the mainstream retail is going absolutely nuts. On the FED site their "bullish mainstreet" numbers are at all time high.
I forgot the link I'll post if I find, trying to post this quick.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: NONE. IRRELEVANT. ZERO.
Absolute retail & hedge funds fomo bubble, typical exhuberance going vertical. The supernova star before dying.
Can last days or weeks.
Moon soon.
Trump WeChat ban shouldn’t worry China tech stocksPowerful out performance in China tech unlikely to be undone by new Trump executive order
Alibaba: Entering an expansion phase towards $400.BABA is currently consolidating on the 1D chart (RSI = 59.048, MACD = 6.230, ADX = 19.815) but the important news of the month is that it broke in July two very bullish long-term patterns (the blue Channel Up and the dashed Higher Highs trend-line since Jan 2018) to the upside.
This resembles the expansion phase that Alibaba had is 2017. If an identical +140% sequence is completed then it can make a new high around $400 by late 2020-early 2021. Our Target Zone when we'll start taking profits is 370.00 - 410.00.
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SINTX Technologies: First 1D Golden Cross ever.SINT not only formed its first ever Golden Cross (which is a very bullish technical formation), but also closed the first 1D candle above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) since November 2017. This is a very bullish long-term mix for the stock and if the 3.25 Resistance breaks we are ready to buy and triple our investment at 10.00.
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Microsoft: Rebound on the 1D MA50. Targeting $217-230.MSFT made a (near) rebound on the 1D MA50. Even though the 1D chart is technically neutral mostly (RSI = 49.013, MACD = 2.140, ADX = 33.401), the RSI is providing the first strong Buy Signal since March, as it entered the 41.50 - 48.00 Buy Zone. That was a strong accumulation region from August 2019 to October 2019, so even though the price may drop some more and touch the 1D MA50, we take this as a strong buy opportunity.
We aim at the completion of a +40% extension from the last time the price made contact with the 1D MA50 (early April 2020), and set our Target Zone at 217 - 230.
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Apple: Rebound on the 1D MA50. Targeting $400 - 420.AAPL hit last month our $350 Target we set on October 2019 when the price was trading at $229:
We are turning buyers again on Apple as on the 1D chart (RSI = 54.619, MACD = 7.940, ADX = 38.567) the price made a strong rebound on the MA50 (the blue line). On top of that, the RSI made its own rebound on the 47.00 Buy Zone which combined with the MA50, have always provided a push and the optimal buy entry since August 2019. This is a 1 year pattern and therefore quite reliable.
Our Target Zone is 400.00 - 420.00, which is practically the Resistance region provided by the Higher Highs trend-line since the May 2019 High.
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Nasdaq 100 - PG13 - violent downards moveWe should be nearing the end of the downwards and continuing upwards trend. Here is a previous call before the drop:
The daily chart is a bit troubling - moving below the MA and also moving below the neckline of that visible M. If it closes below today, seeing it is Friday, we should see a further correction perhaps even a trend reversal for some time.
Tech earnings are mostly beats as that industry is less hit by covid, Mr. Elon the Cook also made a 4 quarter continuous profit so in general, these companies look to bring positive news - still not certain whether the current high prices are absolutely justified, but they are bringing positive news and we are riding the fed support.
To sum up, based on recent correction and support levels, we should have ended the correction or perhaps a quick wick drop further below before resuming upwards trend.
If we break the M neckline and close a red daily, then we are in for some rough days ahead.