NASDAQ 100 Index Monthly Chart - Uptrend Channel
The channel gives a well indication for the
uptrend. It seems the start of bear trend is
around the corner if not already has started.
Techstocks
Alibaba: Entering an expansion phase towards $400.BABA is currently consolidating on the 1D chart (RSI = 59.048, MACD = 6.230, ADX = 19.815) but the important news of the month is that it broke in July two very bullish long-term patterns (the blue Channel Up and the dashed Higher Highs trend-line since Jan 2018) to the upside.
This resembles the expansion phase that Alibaba had is 2017. If an identical +140% sequence is completed then it can make a new high around $400 by late 2020-early 2021. Our Target Zone when we'll start taking profits is 370.00 - 410.00.
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SINTX Technologies: First 1D Golden Cross ever.SINT not only formed its first ever Golden Cross (which is a very bullish technical formation), but also closed the first 1D candle above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) since November 2017. This is a very bullish long-term mix for the stock and if the 3.25 Resistance breaks we are ready to buy and triple our investment at 10.00.
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Microsoft: Rebound on the 1D MA50. Targeting $217-230.MSFT made a (near) rebound on the 1D MA50. Even though the 1D chart is technically neutral mostly (RSI = 49.013, MACD = 2.140, ADX = 33.401), the RSI is providing the first strong Buy Signal since March, as it entered the 41.50 - 48.00 Buy Zone. That was a strong accumulation region from August 2019 to October 2019, so even though the price may drop some more and touch the 1D MA50, we take this as a strong buy opportunity.
We aim at the completion of a +40% extension from the last time the price made contact with the 1D MA50 (early April 2020), and set our Target Zone at 217 - 230.
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Apple: Rebound on the 1D MA50. Targeting $400 - 420.AAPL hit last month our $350 Target we set on October 2019 when the price was trading at $229:
We are turning buyers again on Apple as on the 1D chart (RSI = 54.619, MACD = 7.940, ADX = 38.567) the price made a strong rebound on the MA50 (the blue line). On top of that, the RSI made its own rebound on the 47.00 Buy Zone which combined with the MA50, have always provided a push and the optimal buy entry since August 2019. This is a 1 year pattern and therefore quite reliable.
Our Target Zone is 400.00 - 420.00, which is practically the Resistance region provided by the Higher Highs trend-line since the May 2019 High.
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Nasdaq 100 - PG13 - violent downards moveWe should be nearing the end of the downwards and continuing upwards trend. Here is a previous call before the drop:
The daily chart is a bit troubling - moving below the MA and also moving below the neckline of that visible M. If it closes below today, seeing it is Friday, we should see a further correction perhaps even a trend reversal for some time.
Tech earnings are mostly beats as that industry is less hit by covid, Mr. Elon the Cook also made a 4 quarter continuous profit so in general, these companies look to bring positive news - still not certain whether the current high prices are absolutely justified, but they are bringing positive news and we are riding the fed support.
To sum up, based on recent correction and support levels, we should have ended the correction or perhaps a quick wick drop further below before resuming upwards trend.
If we break the M neckline and close a red daily, then we are in for some rough days ahead.
Netflix: More upside potential. $700 realistic before profit-takNFLX is trading on a long term Channel Up on the 1W chart (log scale) since early 2013. Despite being overbought (RSI = 79.335, MACD = 45.450, ADX = 45.358, CCI = 303.3862) with the earning approaching, Netflix has still room to grow before the next selling wave within the Channel takes place.
Both the LMACD and RSI are on levels where the price previously posted one last run to the Channel's Higher High, before it hit the Resistance Zone (red ray) and pulled back. We have a Target Zone for NFLX within 700 - 800.00.
It is beneficial to add here that these long-term projections on NFLX have been particularly useful to our strategy. See our previous trading call on this stock in September 2019 when the price was trading at $260. The price is now more than double and approaching our (then) target of $650:
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DropBox Inc: My PositionCapital has been flowing into the tech sector since March of 2020. The only well known US tech company that I could find that wasn't hitting all time highs was NASDAQ:DBX . Low price shouldn't be the only reason you buy shares of a company. There needs to be other factors that confirm your contrarian bias.
Fundamentally what I know about DropBox, is their valuation are extremely high. There is no true value here from an asset perspective, however, we have to remember tech stocks are disconnected from reality and investors are happy to pay a premium (this is not to say this can last forever. One fundamental thing I do like about DropBox is the tools they create. They are developing a business suite similar to Microsoft Office, rather than just being a cloud storage company, which is what has been their business model historically.
Technically, I'm seeing a capitulation wick in march, an establishment of a base, and a breakout of that base, along with a breakout of the 100 and 200 week moving averages. There can still be decent pullbacks as this move gains some steam, so it's important to find a good entry point. I made my initial entry at $22.25.
If this up move continues, my targets sit at $26, $35, and $40 . This stock has potential to make new highs as investors search for where to park their capital. However, this all depends on how well the federal reserve does with liquidity. We are in an interesting economic situation.
I am closely watching $21 as support . If this is broken on the weekly chart, we are likely headed for $17.
I will assess the position week by week.
TESLA has some upside left.Even though it's true that TESLA has some upside left. We'll easily retrace back to 800 and I'd guess even more when the dust settles.
Nvidia opportunity brewing.We're getting close to the ultimate short. Expecting a blow of top soon as everything starts accelerating. This is just one example of a multitude of overvalued companies. Even though the fundamentals are there these valuations are not justified by any mean.
Twitter: Emerging Golden and MACD cross. Bullish mix.TWTR was rejected yesterday on the 37.00 Resistance which was the June 8th High. The 1D chart remains bullish (RSI = 63.007, MACD = 0.470, ADX = 33.487), the MACD made a bullish cross and the MA50 is about to cross over the MA200 (Golden Cross). This is a very bullish mix for Twitter and we encourage investors to buy either if the Resistance breaks, or on the next pull back to the 1D MA200. Our Target is 42.00.
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Amazon: Achieved our 1 year Target. Expect a pull back on 1W.In February while the price was still $2,000 we issued a buy recommendation on AMZN to $2,800 - 3,200:
In fact we were after the $3,000 target since December 2018 while Amazon was almost half of what it is trading at now:
We are at the top of that Target Zone now and the 1W chart is once again showing exhaustion signals. It is not the overbought technicals (RSI = 84.087, MACD = 241.970, ADX = 60.038), but primarily the fact that the RSI has entered the red exhaustion zone which in July 2015 called for a pull back and two month consolidation.
Our suggestion is to buy next month again and target 3,500 - 3,890. That is where we expect the next pull back (to the 1W MA50 potentially) to take place.
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Tesla: Our $1,270 target is hit. Time to start booking profits.More than 1 year ago we gave a buy recommendation on Tesla when the price was trading at $205 after a a sharp fall:
Last January we upgraded our final Target for this cycle to $1,270:
Despite the drawback due to the coronovirus lock-down, Tesla reached our long-term target and we've already closed all positions on that stock. We recommend long-term investors to do the same and focus on buying the next pull back.
The reason is the RSI on the 1W chart which is not only overbought (RSI = 79.078, MACD = 184.820, ADX = 52.644) but it mainly reached the limitations of our pressure zones. As seen on the chart, the 1W RSI has entered the orange overbought zone, which back on the identical cycle of 2014, it rejected the price back towards the 1W MA50. When the RSI hit the red Buy Zone, TSLA had a buy signal again.
We expect a similar behavior as so far this model has served us very well long term.
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eBay - Shooting Star Signal - SELL !The Shooting Star Signal along with selling volumes implies a price reversal.
The fact that this formation is on weekly basis, makes it even more likely.
Facebook: The 1 year pattern. Sell opportunity.Facebook has a unique sell entry pattern holding since April 2019. As seen on the chart, there is a +1 year trend-line of Higher Highs. Every time FB touches this line, it pulls back to the 1D MA200. Out of the previous 3 occasions, 2 times the 1D MA200 held while 1 time (COVID) it broke. At the moment FB is rising following Friday's strong selling but until it makes contact with the 1D MA200, we are not convinced that it is a buy again. We are selling on every rise and will book profit on the 1D MA200.
See how we used this pattern last time in January to great advantage:
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APPLE 🟩🟨🟥 True Facts About Justin Bieber's Love of Apple💬Apple closed some stores for COVID related reasons in some states, but it also opened stores due to re-openings in other states. That is sort of mixed news for Apple.
Meanwhile, the fear in the market over a bearish IMF report and some rising COVID cases is legitimate.
Overall, however, there is logic and reason to bet on Apple.
Apple just made a string of bullish announcements at their recent digital-only keynote and Apple's chart is generally very bullish and tends to respect support/resistance levels.
Let's take a look at some Apple levels that the bulls will need to deal with to keep this tech giant's bull run going.
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Support:
S1: The S1 S/R flip and pivot point is a logical place for the bulls to find support if they should need it.
S2: The S2 orderblock is good backup support for the bulls. The market is a bit jittery right now, so it wouldn't be shocking to see a further correction and a reaction at S2.
S3: Finally, the S3 S/R flip and price pivot point at the previous all-time high (ATH) range should hold if a more substantial correction ends up being needed. Apple has every reason to keep running, but no asset is immune to the eventual correction after a big run.
Resistance:
R1: The R1 orderblock at the recent swing high and all-time high is the only identifiable level of resistance for Apple. As the only current level, it'll be important for the bulls to break this one and find support on top of it.
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Summary:
There are two likely paths for Apple.
One path we see the bulls quickly take out the all-time high and then find support on top of previous resistance.
The other path we see a continuation down, likely after a rejection of R1.
The path downward becomes more likely if the virus fears ramp up, as without fear it is hard to see why investors aren't rushing back into Apple.
Resources:
www.cnbc.com + www.cnn.com + www.npr.org
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Salesforce $CRM "cup w handle"$CRM has just cleared $184.80 handle buy point yesterday. RSI broke the trendline too and the volume was more than average.
12 months Consensus Price Target: $198.50
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Microsoft - Price ReversalOur long term buy signal posted on May 2 was accurate
The short term objective of $190 posted on May 3 was also successfully reached
A shooting star formed along with large selling volumes today.
Price is now heading toward the next support at $180-181.
Nasdaq - Strong Selling SignalNegative RSI Divergence indicates a strong bearish signal.
RSI is currently at 58, the trend reversal will accelerate once RSI falls below 50.
ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES ($AMD) 💻 | New all time highs!?👨💻 AMD has been making advances in technology, earnings, and pure bullish price action on the whole. Despite some consolidation recently and the chance of more consolidation in the near-term, we still see upside potential for this titan of chips.
Support.
The S1 bullish S/R flip is a key support level for the bulls. Although rejection at this level could lead to "bearish" consolidation as indicated on this chart, we don't think this alone will jeopardize the uptrend. If we do go that direction, the S2 S/R flip and order block cluster should see a reaction and could present an excellent buying opportunity assuming we see continued strength in tech. Below that we have S3, which is a support of last resort.
Resistance.
The R1 orderblock and S/R flip cluster at the previous swing highs are bound to act as resistance unless the bulls can blast through it here. If breached, it then could become relevant as support. Meanwhile, the R2 bearish orderblock formed from the previous All-Time-High swing high is our next level of resistance after R1.
Summary.
AMD bulls want to see sustained momentum not only in AMD, but in tech as a whole. There is a pathway to a new ATH here, but any faltering and the odds of seeing consolidation, perhaps all the way into July 28th earnings, then becomes likely.
Resources: www.earningswhispers.com
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PayPal - Breakout of the Trending ChannelThe breakout occured with large volumes on 7 May followed by a confirmation pullback on 27 May. Those two signals suggest a bullish momentum.
