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Tight price action near resistance.What's the $PLAN? TA, - Breakout attempted on 2/10 but failed. - Tight price action near 63.6 level with decreasing volatility - Earnings catalyst and the price is consolidating till the short term moving averages catch up. Seen this with a lot of growth stocks recently. So, I gave it a name : CAT20e FA, - Baillie Gifford 1.3%/Druckenmiller added -Increasing margins and sales growth -Increased guidance -Increased enterprise spend as economy recovers Concerns, - Lawsuits - Negative earnings High risk, Swing trade only. Buy: Above short term pivot 66.1 on increasing volume Stop loss: $60 invalidates thesis if it crosses the wedge downwards Max risk: 9.2%
PLong
by ashainp
The End of Tech Stocks? – FAAG at riskThe house of representatives has published a 450-page long report that big tech companies (specifically FAAG), are disrupting innovation. In this post, I will be summarizing the most important points to take away from the report, and factors to consider when investing in Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Google (GOOG). Background Information America’s antitrust laws date back to the 1890s. Standard Oil, an American company founded by John D. Rockefeller, secured 88% of America’s oil market share within 20 years, through aggressive acquisitions of fuel and railway companies. They’ve been criticized for using their monopolistic status to impose higher costs of transportation for their counterparts. Rockefeller took over railway companies, which were essential in transporting goods throughout the country. Without transportation, no business could be done. What these mega tech companies are doing today is very similar to what Rockefeller did back then. Applications cannot reach the general public without being registered on Android and Apple’s app store. People looking to sell goods online must go through Amazon at some point. As a result, in 1911, the US Supreme Court ruled that Standard Oil Trust must be dissolved under the Sherman Antitrust Act and split into 34 companies. What has been suggested in this report is the probability of having to split FAAG, just like they did with Standard Oil in the 1910s, as both cases demonstrate similarities in the essence of their business models and strategies. House Judiciary Antitrust Report - It took 16 months to investigate and finalize the 450 page long report - Targeted companies in this report are: Facebook, Google, Amazon, and Apple - They have analyzed 1.3m documents and interviewed 250 players, dissecting these businesses in every detail possible Amazon (AMZN) The report claims that Amazon wields monopolistic power over third-party sellers. E-commerce sites such as Amazon offer two types of products: products that they source themselves and sell online, and products that are registered on their online marketplace by a third party seller. What’s suggested in the report is that the third party sellers using Amazon’s sales platform are at a disadvantaged position, as Amazon exposes more of their own products (which have much lucrative margins), rather than products listed on their marketplace. Apple (AAPL) In the case of Apple, the report states that there is an unfair monopoly over software distribution. Apple not only takes a huge amount of fees from the apps that are listed on their app store, but also from in-app purchases. They can also refuse to distribute the apps that they dislike, because all the apps that get listed on the app store go through a process of authorization. For instance, if Apple were to launch a new music app, and decide to get rid of all other music streaming related apps on their app store, consumers would have no choice but to use Apple’s new app. Facebook (FB) The report suggests that Facebook possesses dominance in social networking. In a chart that demonstrates the number of monthly active persons (MAP) of social media companies, the order goes as follows: Youtube, Whatsapp, Facebook, Facebook Messenger, and Instagram. Notice that except for Youtube, which is owned by Google, the top 2-5 applications with the most users all belong to Facebook. What’s even scarier is that Facebook is extremely good at either copying new and prominent services, or simply acquiring them. Facebook can make a copy app of an existing application that possesses innovative services. Facebook can then use their platform to support traffic into their copy app (the cross promotion between Facebook and Instagram is one of the major reasons that the company grew exponentially). When Facebook offered to acquire Snapchat (SNAP), they also mentioned that they were not only capable, but willing to make an app that offers the exact same service, which would ultimately do better, as Facebook possesses a bigger and smarter team, and more capital to invest in advertising. Google (GOOG) Google possesses monopoly over online search and search advertising. Thus, they can lead users into services that Google is supporting, or expose more results of companies that have paid Google for advertising (outside sponsored links). They can cherry-pick which results to show people, and essentially lead people into search results that Google wants them to see. The report also demonstrates a list of all the companies that FAAG acquired, which reflects these companies’ strategy of ‘join us or die’. Solutions The report states that splitting these companies is a probable case. There could be different ways in splitting a company. For instance, in the case of Amazon, it could be split into two different companies, each focusing on e-commerce, and cloud services. Another solution is to strengthen antitrust laws to prohibit big mergers and acquisition contracts. The last solution is related to the significant amounts of data that these companies collect. The data they collect are used to expand into their next business, and the government’s solution to stop FAAG’s dominance is to limit their data collection. Essentially, the government’s goal is to restore competition in the digital economy, as there aren’t any more companies that can challenge FAAG. Conclusion There is a lack of consensus between the democrats and republicans, making it difficult to settle on a clear solution. This report dominantly reflects a democratic stance on the issue. The irony is; the more earnings these tech stocks generate, and the more market share they take, the worse it could be for the stock’s price. Wall Street is betting on Biden’s victory, and if that becomes the case, these tech stocks will take a huge hit for the short term. From another perspective, however, this means that it’ll also be an opportunity for the smaller tech stocks, which have been under FAAG’s shadow, to shine. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by Michael_Wang_Official
48
MSFT and Big Tech start the next move up? EARNINGS & ELECTIONBig Tech companies are looking really interesting, there is a lot of upside potential in the market and we could see the tech moves really help the rest of the market push up in terms of overall ETF indices. We have seen the lag of a lot of companies in the S&P 500 but this could be the return to value after the 15-20% drop in big tech. We have seen multiple head and shoulders patterns form on tech across the board. The FAANG and MSFT. However, we are in an interesting and turbulent time right now. We are coming into a period where naturally we see increased volatility and the potential for anything to happen. However the closer we get to this debate, the more bullish it looks, the outcome of it will bring uncertainty but I feel that they may be priced into the market. It's well known that the president won't be known for weeks or months after and the market hasn't reacted poorly. The only bearish reaction was that Trump announced no stimulus until after the election. We'll see if his hand gets forced. The Federal Reserve is also talking about perma stimulus that they will have to navigate through. Or at least high dovishness. Meaning that big tech, for the most part and MSFT are stuck here, complacent without a real trend waiting to see what happens. There is potential for the upside as we are moving along and we are creating higher lows on all but 2 massive tech companies. With the potential of the S&P 500 and the big tech stocks to break their most recent tops, we could see that bull side open up and all-time highs get hit. The deciding level to the downside is around each stock's 100-day moving average, most of which are well away from that now and making ground to the bull side. We also have earnings season coming up, there are limited if any expectations for a lot of companies out there, with minimal forward guidance. Meaning any positive number looks like a beat considering last quarters' extremely negative GDP number. Even slight beats in earnings will help the upside in these companies. This does not constitute investment advice, or trading advice this post is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TRADEPROAcademy
2
Future of learning and education with $CHGGTA -120EMA Support. High volume at $62 level. - Early May 2020 shows double the volume from the previous highest volume day= Institutional accumulation. Average volume 2.8M. May 5th volume : 38.5M - Distribution volume slowing down - RSI reversal - MACD golden cross - Strong relative strength FA, - Integrated platform = Chegg study+ Chegg Writing+ Chegg Math solver + Chegg tutors + High quality future proof skills based courses - Structural tailwind with e-learning/self-learning. - Yahoo finance Growth rate : 25%+. Simply wall street growth rate : 68% - FY15 to FY20 CAGR revenue 39% - Accelerating Earnings, revenues and margins in consecutive quarters(Almost Code 33) - Growing subscriber base= Network effect with more tutors and students - High growth and high margin. FCF positive - Good management Current subscribers of 3.9M with 29% YoY growth. Total opportunity at 102M subscribers - Baillie Gifford ownership : 11%. High quality fund ownership + Growing institutional ownership. #smartmoney Concerns, -Increased competition : Amazon, Khan Academy, Open study, Linkedin - Physical textbooks are a thing of the past. - Debt of 900M and interest coverage of 1.09. However, Cash is at 700M with a healthy current ratio of 8+ Added at $72.
NYSE:CHGGLong
by ashainp
2
So here we are. Buy area visited.Following my Gold & Stocks idea linked below, Gold has made a new low and tech stocks have visited my buying area. I never really made an idea about that (there are so many subjects) but one of the biggest thing with investing is mental flexibility: being able to unlearn what you learned. I plan making an idea about all the nonsense society & school teach people have it somewhere laying around for the past year. I think you are either born with it or you are not. It can be trained but personal opinion it's 90% from birth + young childhood. Assuming we have no hit the top, and with all the tiktok investors (they never sell remember) there is a good chance we have not, the uptrend would continue, strongly (since most of the buyers are tiktokers that never sell when the price goes against them), until we run out of buyers or buyers start getting exhausted AND big whales (hi softbank) need to dump for whatever reason. US elections are 6 weeks away only. Maybe buyers are waiting on the side for the election to resume buying (not sure what they expect). It will be lots of fun I hope. Risking 8% to make over 100% over the next 12 months or less. That's a risk to reward of over 13 to 1. And add dividends too depending on how you are buying this (I'm not getting more dividends they are pushing my stop further away instead I think). There are so many skeptics still. I wonder how many of them are left when the price goes past 20000. Peter Schiff will be the only bear alive, but he is the immortal king of the permabears so it does not count he'd be bearish at nasdaq 10 million points. I am looking forward to the price going up but honestly even more to it finding a top and trapping all of the social media and gen Z and millienial mostly murican "investors", and then crashing super hard and rekting everyone. "The greatest economy ever" haha. Silicon Valley is going to crash and burn with such intensity we will see it from space. Will capitalism be blamed? Or socialist 75% foreign born employees traitorous big tech that ignores the law?
TVC:NDQLong
by MrRenev
2
Apple - US Tech worth more than entire EU Stock Market! 🐂 According to Bank of America, the US tech sector is now worth more than the entire European stock market. Although, in the wake of the recent setback in the tech sector, the main concern seems to be massive overvaluation as a reason for the latest selloff. We, however, see arguments against a pessimistic view. Many tech stocks are seen as profiteers of the virus crisis due to the increasing pressure to digitize. Stocks like Apple or Amazon are already showing greater resistance to the fear of the second pandemic wave and new lockdown measures. Apple, for example, had rallied the previous evening after an early approach to the 100-dollar mark and went out of trading three percent higher. Since the recent high, the market has reached the yellow target box for the current pullback. Even though the ideal target was breached to the downside by $2, we expect the bulls to step back in very soon, taking Appel to new all-time highs. Under $128.78, the alternative scenario should still be taken into consideration. We give this scenario a 30% probability, which would pave the way towards $95, bevor the current decline is completed. To summarize, both scenarios are pointing to new all-time highs in the medium-term perspective. What's your opinion on the tech sector?
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by MarketIntel
SPOT has been on a tear in 2020.. but will it continue?Diving into SPOT, if you've been in this stock this year you've probably been pretty happy with the performance. With a number of big product releases and the effects of JOE ROGAN and MICHELLE OBAMA signing exclusive deals to drive subscribers, the stock pumped so fast from around $180 to nearly $300, that if you blinked you probably missed it. Well, what now? Do you buy at these levels, do you wait? Whats this company really worth? Obviously SPOT has a lot of competition. With AAPL launching their new subscription service packages that basically will force me to have Apple Music, and AMZN launching podcasting on their music service, how many music services does one person need? I still love my SPOT subscription more than any other service option out there. That's what keeps me believing in this stock. I don't want to ever give up my Spotify, and I bet most others don't either. I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is. Remember NFLX just 5 years ago? That might be where SPOT is today. It's worth considering. Now let's look at the chart. I've drawn an Elliot Wave pattern in there, and what a correction might look like. We are definitely in a correction pattern right now. My intuition and my bet is that we are in the 2nd wave of a much larger cycle. What excites me about that is the 3rd wave tends to be the largest move. That would mean if you want to play a longer term trade like me, you want to buy in anywhere in the $182-$227 range. I would recommend your sweet spot to be above $200, even around $210-220 depending on your tolerance for missing a buy opportunity. This stock has a lot of love, and psychological supports are a thing. That's why I find it unlikely we'll see this stock below $200 again unfortunately, and if we do then we need to double check our fundamental analysis and if nothing has changed we will go in with both hands. Now the real exciting part of that trade, should you get in around these levels and lower, is the longer term target is close to $400. Should SPOT continue to diversify their service offering and have that "sticky" product effect where it's just something we all need to have, this isn't farfetched, and is a likely story to happen in the next 1 year. Meanwhile, for the shorter term trades, volatility in this stock can be good, and therefore if we are in a 2nd wave correction, then this is a great time to both be getting a position, but also trading within the correction to make that position as cheap as possible for your 3rd wave run. If this does manifest, and one plays it correctly, by the time you reach my longer term target you should be able to sell a portion of your stack and hold a free and sizable position in this household name. Disclaimer: I am not a professional, nor do I claim to know what I am doing. I chart for my own education and revealing potential trade setups. I am always open to constructive feedback and resources that you can recommend to "up" my game. Thank you!
NYSE:SPOTLong
by Shadowfigure
NVDA Nvidia Exciting Upward Trend! NVDA (Nvidia) is an exciting stock to be in. Given their processing tech and the ability to branch into many cloud businesses such as gaming, processing, and storage, their technology has become a necessity, and demand consistently exceeds supply. I got into NVIDIA as a long-term growth play when it was trading at $360. The breakout above previous ATH with volume was an obvious signal to buy, along with STRONG fundamentals and macroeconomic environment making it a recipe for the next rocket. I don't typically buy into overbought stocks, but with the environment around stocks like TSLA and AAPL making it obvious a tech bubble was forming, it looked like a stock that wasn't getting as much attention yet given the news cycles were sparse, and product launches upcoming in Q4 were going to be great fodder for future growth. I played it right, and the stock went all the way up to $585, now in a correction pattern. Based on the Fib extensions and Elliot wave patterns, this is a very healthy growth stock with potential to shatter its ATH in the next 6 months. Disclaimer: I am not a professional and I draw charts for my own education and keeping track of my trades to know when to get in and when to get out. I'm always open to constructive feedback so feel free to share your thoughts in the comments. Thank you!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Shadowfigure
5
AMD short-term correction setup, long-term BULL caseAMD (Advanced Microdevices) has been on a tear, and for many good reasons. Still, note the short-term correction and whether all its current growth potential has already been priced in. AMD gained strong profitability in 2016 and beyond posting strong and accelerating results with the success of its Ryzen processors. AMD's ability to both produce and deliver more quickly than the industry Goliath Intel has had many rushing into this stock. Most interesting was the recent rotation of traders from Intel into AMD (though one would think not to bet against Intel, based on all history). In this chart, we started with the Weekly pulling back the curtain on historical support and resistance trends. We then analyzed the impulse started end of 2015 / beginning of 2016 which coincides with the company's strong product releases and profitability. In recent times, the company has been accelerating its success, now proving a strong contender against the traditional leader Intel, and further the acceleration of digital transformation due to the 2020 pandemic. Note the end of this major first wave of the impulse. The stock may retest its high around $93, but we'd expect that it's more likely to see a correction towards $60 in the short term, though given the strength of this asset it would be unlikely to get all the way there. Still, one could set some buy ladders and try and get lucky with buy orders just above $60 and $50. In the mid- to longer-term we expect this stock to break it's ATH and search for what could be a larger 3rd wave to the upside as tech innovation further accelerates worldwide. Disclaimer: I am not a professional. Analysis is my thoughts and for my own education and revelations on trade setups. I am more than open to feedback or being pointed to resources that can improve my analysis. Thank you!
NASDAQ:AMD
by Shadowfigure
1
Beyond congestion, could move to monthly highs and beyondAfter some very assertive upward moves, Netflix was setting up to test all time highs and set a monthly high before the market sell-off. Fib levels were useful to some degree but daily, weekly, and monthly resistance may be more reliable indicators shown by the congestion zone highlighted in yellow. Entry above $518 may get caught in the congestion zone, whereas entry above $532 should be safe to reach the first fib target, hopefully moving beyond the monthly breakout level and to all time highs.
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by SpinTrades
NASDAQ - I won't panic, sorry.Nasdaq's bull run was unreal. Out of this world. Irrealistic, many would say. We all knew this was going to happen at some point. Call me delusional, overly optimistic, or even naive. But I am not panicking just yet. We broke through resistance and a pull-back to the new support is a healthy signal. We need the Nasdaq to slow down, we need to put a break to impulse investing, to unreasonable pumps, and, most importantly, to the media pressure. If I was to treat this chart as a stock, I would place a limit order on the bounce, aiming for a perfect textbook entry point. I know that a bull-run will most likely follow after that. I might wrong, of course. After all, trading is not an exact science and I'm not considering fundamentals as well as behavioral finance in my analysis. However, I just feel it is too early to call this a crash. I will definitely be concerned if we break through the support line. Not until then, though. When it comes to my trading activity, I had already skipped trading tech for the past week or so, as I felt this was coming this week. I will now sit on the sidelines until I get some clarity. I might be back on Tuesday with new setups, or maybe the week after. If the sell-off continues I might add more short setups, as long as there is some rationale behind. Time now to be grateful for our wonderful August, study, enjoy a little break and hope for a new direction soon. I would love to hear your short-term outlook about the Nasdaq, where do you see it heading in September, and how this is going to affect your trading (or investment) plan.
NASDAQ:NDAQ
by maschera
3
Topping up #AR9. Seems to be finding a base here.Topping up here TA, - Trend line support - 20EMA daily - Ascending triangle - RSI relatively oversold - Short term resistance at 0.6 show by high volume. Good place to take some profits if you intend to. Concerns, - Recent earnings and 50% loss in operating revenue. However, the earnings reaction was neutral which shows strong hands holding this. - If negative momentum continues, could see 0.35 in the short term. Should bounce there(first touch rejection 90% of the time) FA, Fundamentally, I am betting on the the team and the trust they've developed over the last 1.5 decades It's quite obvious that the next decade will be dominated by data,cloud and IoT. Cyber security is the back bone for this next paradigm and it is highly unlikely governments will outsource data security to a non-Australian company. AR9 has built this trust over the last 1.5 decades. Trust is hard to replicate on balance sheets.
ASX:AR9Long
by ashainp
1
Gig economy winner. $FVRR or $UPWK?FA, - Structural headwinds through gig economy, freelancing and 'escape the rat race' theme - 3Y revenue growth 22% - Improving gross margins. 70% - Recent insider purchases - Like shopify, but for talent. Online talent marketplace. -Value? Market cap half of Fiverr with revenue twice as much. TA, - Major trend reversal. Short term moving averages crossing Long term MA - Trendline support - 120MA support 4H - Higher highs and lows Concerns, - Less than expected revenue growth during lockdown. YOY growth 19% at $87.5M Main competitor Fiverr reported YoY growth of 82% at 47.1m. Growth is key. - Fiverr reporter a net loss of only -$0.1M while UPWK reported a loss of -$10M. -Freelancers prefer Fiverr over Upwork. - Fiverr better glassdoor ratings (4.3 Vs. 3.8) - Higher volume on red days Seems more like a technical trade considering the above points or a value play. Fiverr is still the better company fundamentally. Until Upwork can show above significant growth rates, the stock would not gain much momentum. 20% growth for a growth stock with people looking for jobs online is not enough in my opinion.
NASDAQ:UPWK
by ashainp
Breakout or wait for pullback? Market leader with high RS.FA, - Brilliant financial position and poised for growth - Foremost stock with significant subscription revenue model. - Market leader - RS rating 88. EPS rating 99 - ROE:39% - Sales growth 3Y : 23% TA, - Wyckoff Accumulation - If price closes above 470, it's a clear sign of strength(SOS) - Higher highs and higher lows. Supply drying up. - MACD daily golden cross - Through this whole rally, ADBE has never dipped below 40ema which further confirms it's high relative strength and the status of a market leader. - Perfect entry would be if price can consolidate and get closer to 20 and 40EMA. Risks, - Overextended from moving averages - Pressure on growth stocks
NASDAQ:ADBELong
by ashainp
Long term trend reversal thanks to CovidMost tech stocks have fared exceptionally well during the crash. Some of them were trending sideways for years or in a long term downtrend for many quarters. Covid was the catalyst that reversed their downtrend and proved their existence to the broader market. The uptrend is almost confirmed. Need to wick past the $100 level for full confirmation. I'll be looking to enter at a test of 120 EMA again. Ideal entry : Wick past 100 and retest that level + 120ema touch Seems unlikely when the optimism over tech stocks is high, but it will come.
NYSE:ESTCLong
by ashainp
$DDOG finally pulls back. Holding a key level.FA, - Revenue up 87% YOY - DBNRR(net retention rate) above 30% - 63% of customers using 2 or more products - Customers with ARR of $100k+ grew +89% YOY. - Guidance of 62% revenue growth this quarter and 54% a full year. - Gross margin>70% - Rule of 40 fulfilled. 80% revenue growth- 4% EBIT margin = 76%. - Good financial health - Covid tailwinds TA, - The red levels are the daily levels. Daily candle rejected strongly( long-tail) off 72.15 and both the preceding candles closed above 75.00. - Daily 120EMA - RSI oversold Price could very well go further down from here. I would look at entering again at the mid-'60s if so.
NASDAQ:DDOGLong
by ashainp