Beyond congestion, could move to monthly highs and beyondAfter some very assertive upward moves, Netflix was setting up to test all time highs and set a monthly high before the market sell-off. Fib levels were useful to some degree but daily, weekly, and monthly resistance may be more reliable indicators shown by the congestion zone highlighted in yellow. Entry above $518 may get caught in the congestion zone, whereas entry above $532 should be safe to reach the first fib target, hopefully moving beyond the monthly breakout level and to all time highs.
Techstocks
Pluralsight long with tighter stops TA,
- MACD golden
-RSI heading up
-Demand tail daily rejection of trendline and support
-200ema bounce
- Lower volume on red days
FA,
- Long online education. Short legacy universities
SL: 17.7 (-7.2%)
PT1: 21.1
PT2: 22.3 (+17.3%)
This is holding up surprisingly well when the market is correcting.
COVID Tech vs. RoW Tech vs. Reopening StocksAfter the big drop Thursday, this is a quick 3-month performance review of some of the classic names that fit into each of these 3 groups
We can see that COVID tech (Tesla, Zoom, Plug Power) sold off, reopening trades (cruise lines, banks) rebounded and in the middle were some tech favourites that fared a little better (Alphabet, Twitter etc)
NASDAQ - I won't panic, sorry.Nasdaq's bull run was unreal. Out of this world. Irrealistic, many would say.
We all knew this was going to happen at some point.
Call me delusional, overly optimistic, or even naive.
But I am not panicking just yet.
We broke through resistance and a pull-back to the new support is a healthy signal. We need the Nasdaq to slow down, we need to put a break to impulse investing, to unreasonable pumps, and, most importantly, to the media pressure.
If I was to treat this chart as a stock, I would place a limit order on the bounce, aiming for a perfect textbook entry point. I know that a bull-run will most likely follow after that.
I might wrong, of course. After all, trading is not an exact science and I'm not considering fundamentals as well as behavioral finance in my analysis.
However, I just feel it is too early to call this a crash.
I will definitely be concerned if we break through the support line. Not until then, though.
When it comes to my trading activity, I had already skipped trading tech for the past week or so, as I felt this was coming this week.
I will now sit on the sidelines until I get some clarity. I might be back on Tuesday with new setups, or maybe the week after. If the sell-off continues I might add more short setups, as long as there is some rationale behind.
Time now to be grateful for our wonderful August, study, enjoy a little break and hope for a new direction soon.
I would love to hear your short-term outlook about the Nasdaq, where do you see it heading in September, and how this is going to affect your trading (or investment) plan.
Topping up #AR9. Seems to be finding a base here.Topping up here
TA,
- Trend line support
- 20EMA daily
- Ascending triangle
- RSI relatively oversold
- Short term resistance at 0.6 show by high volume. Good place to take some profits if you intend to.
Concerns,
- Recent earnings and 50% loss in operating revenue. However, the earnings reaction was neutral which shows strong hands holding this.
- If negative momentum continues, could see 0.35 in the short term. Should bounce there(first touch rejection 90% of the time)
FA,
Fundamentally, I am betting on the the team and the trust they've developed over the last 1.5 decades
It's quite obvious that the next decade will be dominated by data,cloud and IoT. Cyber security is the back bone for this next paradigm and it is highly unlikely governments will outsource data security to a non-Australian company. AR9 has built this trust over the last 1.5 decades. Trust is hard to replicate on balance sheets.
Gig economy winner. $FVRR or $UPWK?FA,
- Structural headwinds through gig economy, freelancing and 'escape the rat race' theme
- 3Y revenue growth 22%
- Improving gross margins. 70%
- Recent insider purchases
- Like shopify, but for talent. Online talent marketplace.
-Value? Market cap half of Fiverr with revenue twice as much.
TA,
- Major trend reversal. Short term moving averages crossing Long term MA
- Trendline support
- 120MA support 4H
- Higher highs and lows
Concerns,
- Less than expected revenue growth during lockdown. YOY growth 19% at $87.5M
Main competitor Fiverr reported YoY growth of 82% at 47.1m. Growth is key.
- Fiverr reporter a net loss of only -$0.1M while UPWK reported a loss of -$10M.
-Freelancers prefer Fiverr over Upwork.
- Fiverr better glassdoor ratings (4.3 Vs. 3.8)
- Higher volume on red days
Seems more like a technical trade considering the above points or a value play. Fiverr is still the better company fundamentally. Until Upwork can show above significant growth rates, the stock would not gain much momentum. 20% growth for a growth stock with people looking for jobs online is not enough in my opinion.
Breakout or wait for pullback? Market leader with high RS.FA,
- Brilliant financial position and poised for growth
- Foremost stock with significant subscription revenue model.
- Market leader
- RS rating 88. EPS rating 99
- ROE:39%
- Sales growth 3Y : 23%
TA,
- Wyckoff Accumulation
- If price closes above 470, it's a clear sign of strength(SOS)
- Higher highs and higher lows. Supply drying up.
- MACD daily golden cross
- Through this whole rally, ADBE has never dipped below 40ema which further confirms it's high relative strength and the status of a market leader.
- Perfect entry would be if price can consolidate and get closer to 20 and 40EMA.
Risks,
- Overextended from moving averages
- Pressure on growth stocks
Long term trend reversal thanks to CovidMost tech stocks have fared exceptionally well during the crash.
Some of them were trending sideways for years or in a long term downtrend for many quarters.
Covid was the catalyst that reversed their downtrend and proved their existence to the broader market.
The uptrend is almost confirmed. Need to wick past the $100 level for full confirmation.
I'll be looking to enter at a test of 120 EMA again.
Ideal entry : Wick past 100 and retest that level + 120ema touch
Seems unlikely when the optimism over tech stocks is high, but it will come.
ROKU SQUEEZEVery Curious to see how this plays out. Not sure if bullish or bearish so i'll sit this one out until it makes some more sense. It Does seem to have a strong support but the resistance isn't rising. On the other hand it is tapping the bottom of the bollinger band. Just want to document this as reference for similar scenarios in the future.
If you come across this, please give me some input as to what it is that you see.
$DDOG finally pulls back. Holding a key level.FA,
- Revenue up 87% YOY
- DBNRR(net retention rate) above 30%
- 63% of customers using 2 or more products
- Customers with ARR of $100k+ grew +89% YOY.
- Guidance of 62% revenue growth this quarter and 54% a full year.
- Gross margin>70%
- Rule of 40 fulfilled. 80% revenue growth- 4% EBIT margin = 76%.
- Good financial health
- Covid tailwinds
TA,
- The red levels are the daily levels. Daily candle rejected strongly( long-tail) off 72.15 and both the preceding candles closed above 75.00.
- Daily 120EMA
- RSI oversold
Price could very well go further down from here. I would look at entering again at the mid-'60s if so.
The bubble will pop soon. I FOMO'd into Apple. Buy ASAP.I'm just going on instinct.
I haven't had a red month in 2020.
I even am winning on my wheat short when I have no idea what I'm doing.
Why be careful? I have limited risk and I'm not using stupid size I'm not an idiot, but since I keep winning, might as well go machine gun and buy or sell anything I fancy.
Some people will talk about "significant levels" "oh no be careful it's close to a level" haha stocks only go up. Here, 450 is gone.
451.
Some people make $10 an hour. I'm making like $10 a second or something.
Oh this bubble is going to explode but boy oh boy I am going to ride it to the top just like with crypto (altcoins).
And then I'll short it to the ground as it violently collapses.
BUY BUY BUY BUY! Be aware it can gap down. It can gap down alot so make sure you are covered.
THIS IS NUTS. I LITERALLY JUST BOUGHT.
STOCKS ONLY GO UP.
BUY QUICK!
THE VENEZUELA STOCK MARKET WENT UP 100 BILLION PERCENT.
I usually don't trade stocks but when it's like this... And same with crypto I'll go back to it if it goes like this. I adapt.
How can spreads be so cheap with certain brokers? xd GG!
All the mainstream retail is going absolutely nuts. On the FED site their "bullish mainstreet" numbers are at all time high.
I forgot the link I'll post if I find, trying to post this quick.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: NONE. IRRELEVANT. ZERO.
Absolute retail & hedge funds fomo bubble, typical exhuberance going vertical. The supernova star before dying.
Can last days or weeks.
Moon soon.
Trump WeChat ban shouldn’t worry China tech stocksPowerful out performance in China tech unlikely to be undone by new Trump executive order
Alibaba: Entering an expansion phase towards $400.BABA is currently consolidating on the 1D chart (RSI = 59.048, MACD = 6.230, ADX = 19.815) but the important news of the month is that it broke in July two very bullish long-term patterns (the blue Channel Up and the dashed Higher Highs trend-line since Jan 2018) to the upside.
This resembles the expansion phase that Alibaba had is 2017. If an identical +140% sequence is completed then it can make a new high around $400 by late 2020-early 2021. Our Target Zone when we'll start taking profits is 370.00 - 410.00.
** If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
SINTX Technologies: First 1D Golden Cross ever.SINT not only formed its first ever Golden Cross (which is a very bullish technical formation), but also closed the first 1D candle above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) since November 2017. This is a very bullish long-term mix for the stock and if the 3.25 Resistance breaks we are ready to buy and triple our investment at 10.00.
** If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Microsoft: Rebound on the 1D MA50. Targeting $217-230.MSFT made a (near) rebound on the 1D MA50. Even though the 1D chart is technically neutral mostly (RSI = 49.013, MACD = 2.140, ADX = 33.401), the RSI is providing the first strong Buy Signal since March, as it entered the 41.50 - 48.00 Buy Zone. That was a strong accumulation region from August 2019 to October 2019, so even though the price may drop some more and touch the 1D MA50, we take this as a strong buy opportunity.
We aim at the completion of a +40% extension from the last time the price made contact with the 1D MA50 (early April 2020), and set our Target Zone at 217 - 230.
** If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Apple: Rebound on the 1D MA50. Targeting $400 - 420.AAPL hit last month our $350 Target we set on October 2019 when the price was trading at $229:
We are turning buyers again on Apple as on the 1D chart (RSI = 54.619, MACD = 7.940, ADX = 38.567) the price made a strong rebound on the MA50 (the blue line). On top of that, the RSI made its own rebound on the 47.00 Buy Zone which combined with the MA50, have always provided a push and the optimal buy entry since August 2019. This is a 1 year pattern and therefore quite reliable.
Our Target Zone is 400.00 - 420.00, which is practically the Resistance region provided by the Higher Highs trend-line since the May 2019 High.
** If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Nasdaq 100 - PG13 - violent downards moveWe should be nearing the end of the downwards and continuing upwards trend. Here is a previous call before the drop:
The daily chart is a bit troubling - moving below the MA and also moving below the neckline of that visible M. If it closes below today, seeing it is Friday, we should see a further correction perhaps even a trend reversal for some time.
Tech earnings are mostly beats as that industry is less hit by covid, Mr. Elon the Cook also made a 4 quarter continuous profit so in general, these companies look to bring positive news - still not certain whether the current high prices are absolutely justified, but they are bringing positive news and we are riding the fed support.
To sum up, based on recent correction and support levels, we should have ended the correction or perhaps a quick wick drop further below before resuming upwards trend.
If we break the M neckline and close a red daily, then we are in for some rough days ahead.
Netflix: More upside potential. $700 realistic before profit-takNFLX is trading on a long term Channel Up on the 1W chart (log scale) since early 2013. Despite being overbought (RSI = 79.335, MACD = 45.450, ADX = 45.358, CCI = 303.3862) with the earning approaching, Netflix has still room to grow before the next selling wave within the Channel takes place.
Both the LMACD and RSI are on levels where the price previously posted one last run to the Channel's Higher High, before it hit the Resistance Zone (red ray) and pulled back. We have a Target Zone for NFLX within 700 - 800.00.
It is beneficial to add here that these long-term projections on NFLX have been particularly useful to our strategy. See our previous trading call on this stock in September 2019 when the price was trading at $260. The price is now more than double and approaching our (then) target of $650:
** If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
DropBox Inc: My PositionCapital has been flowing into the tech sector since March of 2020. The only well known US tech company that I could find that wasn't hitting all time highs was NASDAQ:DBX . Low price shouldn't be the only reason you buy shares of a company. There needs to be other factors that confirm your contrarian bias.
Fundamentally what I know about DropBox, is their valuation are extremely high. There is no true value here from an asset perspective, however, we have to remember tech stocks are disconnected from reality and investors are happy to pay a premium (this is not to say this can last forever. One fundamental thing I do like about DropBox is the tools they create. They are developing a business suite similar to Microsoft Office, rather than just being a cloud storage company, which is what has been their business model historically.
Technically, I'm seeing a capitulation wick in march, an establishment of a base, and a breakout of that base, along with a breakout of the 100 and 200 week moving averages. There can still be decent pullbacks as this move gains some steam, so it's important to find a good entry point. I made my initial entry at $22.25.
If this up move continues, my targets sit at $26, $35, and $40 . This stock has potential to make new highs as investors search for where to park their capital. However, this all depends on how well the federal reserve does with liquidity. We are in an interesting economic situation.
I am closely watching $21 as support . If this is broken on the weekly chart, we are likely headed for $17.
I will assess the position week by week.