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MSFT Reaches My Double Top Target...Now What? Just a brief analysis. There is a possibility that the market will rally higher and that we will see a blow off top, but the DJI has found pretty substantial resistance again above 26000 so we may be about to see the true initial drop of an incoming recession. The December drop was merely the start, and subsequent rally was constructed so that people have another chance to protect their capital. In my last MSFT chart, I suggested there was a possibility for a double top if the recent low couldn't be taken out by the bears. I provided the target for this second top (somewhere in the 110-112 area). If we are to follow this setup, we should see a big drop soon. However, if we build support here and move higher, this idea will be invalidated. Looking at the log chart, once the purple uptrend is broken, we will probably see a much deeper selloff. As you can see, there are some fairly low targets. Things don't necessarily have to play out this way, but I think we need to see some growth slow down, so we can deal with bigger issues as a society (like the environment, for instance). Not financial advice. This is my opinion based on what I'm seeing in the market. Link to previous MSFT analysis at bottom. -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by VictorCobra
3
What history tells us ...Looking back in history bad things happened whenever 100 EMA crosses down through the 200 EMA. Major correction is likely gonna be ahead. During the century such a situation was observed 21 times, and in 20 cases it triggered a big sell-off. The reversal may likely happen below the 200 EMA, but compared to the situation in 2015 price could also continue to rally above 200 EMA, will then consolidate and eventually plunge heavily. I stay focused to enter my bearish position. Just for the time being, I am cautious and trade a small long position here. Big resistance ahead (trend line, 200 EMA + 63.8% Fibonacci retracement) ***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.**
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by JaDeVin
The Tech Bubble May Be Over - GOOGLE Short!This will be a quick analysis. I did a much larger analysis of where I think the economy is going in my Dow Jones post (link at bottom). This is just an idea to illustrate the tech bubble and why we could have some pretty severe downside if this materializes. This is NOT the log chart, but Google hasn't been around that long, so it's not really necessary to use. Major supports are in green. As you can see, we're forming a pretty large head and shoulders amidst a double-top, which is a pretty strong sell signal. The weekly RSI looks pretty oversold, so we could rally up to the high 1100 area first to form a larger right shoulder before dropping. I guess we'll see. We could easily see a 50% decline from current prices though. If we do get down to the $500 zone, I will re-evaluate to gauge the market at the time. Setup: Short Below 1000 - Stop loss above 1100 Close around 920 Reopen Short below 920 to target the low 500 zone. This is not investment advice, and I am not a qualified financial advisor. This is just a potential setup I'm looking at for fun, and to see how it plays out. -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by VictorCobra
Apple (AAPL) Has Probably Plateaued I'm doing this main chart using the log scale because it makes it so obvious that growth is slowing down. We just got rejected hard off the resistance that has held us since the 80's! We're also in a giant rising wedge, and are JUST touching the bottom of it right at this very moment (actually, I'm being generous with my line. In truth, we've broken down already). Now, I don't think Apple will disappear. That's not what this analysis is about. As I've mentioned recently, I think many tech stocks have plateaued. Some may continue higher eventually, but Apple most likely will not grow much. Why? I think the world's population has peaked, and people's interest in technology has also peaked. People who speculated on Apple have also walked out with massive profits. Just look at that graph! In my opinion, and I know it's controversial, there is no reason for Apple to continue to grow at an astronomical rate. As you can see, growth has clearly reached a point that it cannot sustain and it will likely flatline, or experience a long period of slow growth. Their tech has simply become a part of our daily lives. It's almost part of our biology at this point. Why speculate on it anymore? I argue that by becoming so valuable, it has actually set the stage for its own demise. I don't know if this makes any sense to you. By demise I mean stagnation, basically. Anyway, where Apple flatlines is anyone's guess. We have some possibilities on this chart (green zones). It could be fairly near current prices (in the $80-100 area). Or it could be in the $50 zone. That seems more likely to me, given the size of the tech bubble. I think people will continue to use Apple products every day, so I don't see it really falling off a cliff permanently. It's also dropped pretty substantially from it's all-time-high already. As I mentioned in my DJI analysis, I was pretty sure it would not be able to sustain above the $1 Trillion market cap. I was surprised that it held up there as long as it did, to be honest. A lot of people out there will keep on harping about investing and how everyone should still hold Apple stock in their portfolio. I do not think there is much upside anymore. It might EVENTUALLY gain back a good amount of what it's lost since the ATH, but I doubt it'll reach beyond $1 Trillion again. This is just my view, though. I could be totally wrong. I just have a feeling about it though. I am not a professional financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by VictorCobra
1
Amazon (AMZN) Double Top or Straight Drop?If you read my DJI analysis, you'll know that I am bearish on the stock market right now, but particularly tech stocks. I've been bearish since AAPL was trading at $230 and as soon as it hit the $1 Trillion market cap. There's just not enough However, the market is still showing signs that buyers haven't given up, and the majority still seems to be bullish, at least in terms of retail traders. We might end up seeing a big double top playing out in some of these tech stocks. In AMZN, this means if we break out decisively above 1550, we may see a rise up towards 1800 before the full bubble pop. I expect the bottom of the bear market for AMZN to be anywhere between $500 and $600, but obviously this view will change, depending on market conditions. On the logarithmic chart, we have decent support near the $750 area (shown below), but on the linear chart we can see that this is forming a classic bubble structure. Remember, people buying AMZN during the 2008 crash made close to 60x profits at the recent top around 2000. Pretty insane. Even at current prices, the profits for these people are astronomical. Log Chart with potential bearish targets (red X's) If we break down beneath the orange steep rising trendline and below the 1300 price point, we will likely see a steep selloff, regardless of whether or not a second top happens. Potential setups are as follows: BUY 1550-1600 SELL 1800/high 1700 SHORT Break below the orange line or 1300. More short-term: SHORT break below 1500, with a target between 1300 and 1350. This is not financial advice, and I'm not a professional. This is a setup I'm looking at, and I'm curious to see if it plays out. Interesting times ahead indeed! Good luck! -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by VictorCobra
A Look at QQQ Over the Long TrendI am a big believer in big tech and it's disruption over the long term, but the recent action in the stock market has made me take a step back and study how the QQQ index has performed over the longer term. I have plotted the chart dating back to the 2009 bottom and there seems to be a clear uptrend since then. We checked back to that uptrend line a few times and have continued moving higher. Recent action in the stock market seems to be forming a top formation, which is a very bearish indicator. We might be getting into a head and shoulders pattern over the short term and I will make the bet that we break that head and shoulder pattern and fall into the longer term uptrend of the QQQ's. I will look for some support at the 159 and hope that holds for some sideways movement in the short term. Follow me for more trade ideas!
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by rohanbhide
DANGER: Amazon and FANGS could be in trouble. Amazon has just crossed $1 Trillion in market value. This is without doubt a parabolic expansion. History has shown us that parabolic charts like this suffer a significant correction. Do not expect me to say when - as I have no crystal ball. Tech stocks have been propping up Wall Streets expansion. But there is a problem. The stock markets in the US and around the world are being eroded in value. Google is your friend. Around the globe there is market contraction due to trade wars and international political tensions. Reliable research shows that value of stocks below the top 30 is falling in average. This is a danger signal. The traditional 'news' is not your friend. From day to day we hear different news casts. These people are there to sell their news - that's all. Dig deeper. The world is in trouble! Amazon cannot fight and win over the whole world. It just ain't that big or powerful. Tech stocks have been living on borrowed time and feeding frenzies. If Amazon goes south, and the rest of tech goes south, expect to see major corrections on Wall Street. Those looking to short the stock markets may wish to look for trend changes on the 4H - 6H time frames and with Amazon.
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by Captain_Walker
If I Could Buy One Stock for the Next 5 Years,It Would Be NVIDIATake a look at its 720% surge since 2016. Now I know you might be thinking: Stephen, this stock has already had a heck of a run… why buy it now? I understand the concern. But when investing in truly disruptive companies , this way of thinking is often a mistake. From 2009–2013, Amazon (AMZN) stock gained 680%. Most so-called “experts” said the easy money had already been made. In 2013, CNN “reported” that “Amazon is one of the most overvalued stocks.” Amazon has soared another 700% since 2013. Nvidia Makes High-Performance Graphic Processing Units Nvidia developed the first mass-market graphic processing unit (GPU) in 1999. GPUs use what’s called “parallel processing,” which allows the chips to perform millions of calculations at the same time. That’s different from the way other computer chips work. Most computer chips, like the one powering the laptop or phone you’re reading this on, calculate one by one. At first, GPUs were mostly used to create realistic graphics in video games. Remember the blocky Nintendo graphics from the early ‘90s? The ability of GPUs to process huge amounts of data all at once helped create the movie-like video game graphics you see today. GPUs Are Ideal for “Training” Artificial Intelligence I’m sure you’ve seen the Hollywood movies about AI going rogue and attacking humans. In reality, AI isn’t that glamorous. It all comes down to processing massive amounts of data. Show a computer millions of pictures of a stop sign, for example, and it will learn to recognize stop signs on its own in the real world. AI is the driving force behind Google’s self-driving car subsidiary Waymo. As I recently discussed in the RiskHedge Report , Waymo’s robot cars are cruising around America’s roads right now. At the core of Waymo’s self-driving car fleet is a centralized “brain.” It has learned to recognize stop signs, pedestrian crossings, red lights, and all the other obstacles that human drivers navigate. The Likes of Amazon, Google, and Microsoft Use Nvidia Chips to Train Their AI The faster a computer can process data, the faster it can “learn” by recognizing patterns in the data. Nvidia latest chips process 125x faster than traditional computer chips. They can process 125 trillion data points per second… which slashes AI “learn” times from eight days to eight hours. This is why more than 2,000 companies including Amazon, Google, and Microsoft use Nvidia’s hardware to “train” their AI programs. Last quarter, the revenue Nvidia earned from selling AI chips and hardware jumped 82%. In the last two years, AI-related sales have accounted for over 70% of the surge in Nvidia’s revenue. AI sales now make up 24% of its total revenue. Most Self-Driving Car Companies Use Nvidia’s Products As I mentioned, Nvidia supplies self-driving car companies with chips that “train” cars’ brains. It also sells hardware that processes data from the cars’ many cameras and sensors. For example, Nvidia’s self-driving supercomputer, named Pegasus, can tackle 320 trillion operations per second. And it does so using one-third the electricity at just one-fifth the cost of its closest competitor. Over 370 companies working on self-driving cars now use Nvidia’s products. Auto sales make up just 5% of NVDA’s total revenue today, and I see this exploding higher over the next few years as true self-driving cars roll out. I mentioned earlier that $100 billion has been spent on developing self-driving cars so far. With the likes of Google and Apple pouring billions into driverless projects, I see that jumping to $1 trillion over the next two to three years. Thanks to its superior technology, I expect Nvidia to capture a large chunk of this. It’s a “High-Flying” Tech Company, but Extremely Profitable Nvidia is nothing like many of the barely profitable tech darlings (like Netflix) out there. While many high-flying tech stocks get by on stories and hype, Nvidia is extremely profitable. It has a net profit margin of 33%. That is, for every $1 in sales, $0.33 becomes pure profit. That’s better than Google’s 21% margin… and even Microsoft’s 29%. Nvidia’s high margins allow it to continually pour cash into Research & Development (R&D). It reinvests close to 20% of its revenue into R&D every year, which is a key reason why it has blown away its rivals. Nvidia is financially sound, too. It’s sitting on a record $7.95 billion in cash. Which is enough to pay off its total debt four times over. Why I’m Not Concerned About Nvidia’s Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio of 39. Can buying a stock at such a high valuation be risky? Sure. But Nvidia deserves its rich valuation. Nvidia’s earnings are growing at almost six times the rate of the S&P 500. Yet its P/E ratio is not even double the S&P’s. I think investing in a company like Ford (F), with a P/E of 5, is far riskier than buying NVDA. I can hear the groans coming from the value investors out there. But the fact is, Nvidia is leading the self-driving revolution… while Ford is going to get crushed by it. Because it is powering today’s most disruptive trends, I see Nvidia doubling over the next two years.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by StephenMcBride
1
AMD will continue to rise as Intel Drops for the competition! Intel and AMD are both making industry moves to be the best in processing sales. AMD is in front as of right now but it has also been rumoured to have a AMD chip with Intel technology to help both companies grow together. This is yet not confirmed but it is defiantly an opportunity for the market. having both companies together but having AMD sel this product will grow AMD over Intel. Intel will also grow but Not as fast as to the news it will be a product of AMD not Intel. so keep your eye on AMD over Intel for technology stocks But at the same time watch for confirmation on the new processor created by both. -Jon Matthews
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by matthewsjonfredrick
1