NQ1! Nasdaq Clear Path Up 100+ Pts to 8400 ???After today's move down, it might be said this is the beginning of a larger, SHORT, run down...typical to think and may be true! However, based on the price (not wave) cycles I've seen over the years, there is still room to move up to 8400 (and higher) and that is my bias for this trade. Today's action just made it easier to make that move upwards after clearing out some LONG players.
I'm personally looking for an entry within the RED BUY zone.
1st Target, 50% of way through the range, 8330
2nd Target, Double Top at 8380
3rd Target, 8400.
A break below today's LO would have my rethinking this scenario.
Techstocks
Alibaba: Potential rise to the 2019 High.Alibaba is trading inside a very standard 1W Channel Up since June (RSI = 52.639, MACD = 1.760, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) with the Low to High legs symmetrical at +21%. If the current leg is completed on equal strength then the peak (+21%) will reach 195.50 which is the 2019 High. So if the Higher High trend line of the Channel Up breaks, be ready to extend your long positions to 195.50.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Ebay: Long term Buy Signal.Ebay is coming off a strong rebound last week on the 1D MA200. 1D is again gradually turning bullish (RSI = 50.474, ADX = 33.642, Highs/Lows = 0.3699, CCI = 102.4213) as it approaches the 1D MA50.
What is more interesting is that last time Ebay touched the 1D MA200 after a Golden Cross formation (took place last March) was in 2016/ 2017. The rebound was extended then to a new Higher High. Based on that we have turned bullish again on Ebay targeting 43.00.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Amazon: Signs of a Dot Com Bubble burst.This study is intended to point out some very obvious similarities of Amazon's current trading action with that of the stock's Dot Com crisis period.
Our sole purpose is not to spread panic to a stock market that is currently strong and trading on All Time High territory but to keep investors on their toes and make potential buyers check and double check by looking on all possible angles before investing on AMZN.
Even though the price action now and then share many common features, it is of course common sense that it takes more than just similar candle action to justify such a bubble burst like the Dot Com collapse and that comes on a certain fundamental framework of a very negative series of events that shake a part of the economy as a whole (even a recession). Some can argue that the U.S. - China trade war is such an event and they do have a valid point. But it is too early to tell.
Can this be an end of an era for Amazon? Hard (and as said early) to tell, but it certainly provides a certain structure that investors may follow in order to limit the risk of such a potential price blast. In our opinion it is safer to either buy AMZN once the All Time High breaks or if by any extremely negative turn of events approach 1,300 again.
Use this information at your own discretion but certainly be very skeptical of this tech giant.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Apple: Testing All Time Highs. Next Target $300-$350.AAPL is a step closer this week to its $233.47 All Time High. The market is skeptical, investors proceed with caution on this Resistance especially since the 1W RSI is just above the 70.000 barrier, but should they?
History shows that every time the 1W (weekly) RSI of Apple Inc breaks 70.000 after after a specific sequence and following a Higher Low on the long term Channel Up that started in 2012, it moves on to new highs, specifically chasing to price a new Higher High within the Channel.
It is astonishing how the date range (time interval) of each of those times (when the RSI hit 70.000 after a Higher Low) is exactly 987 days. Assuming the lowest % increase out of the past 2 occurrences takes place (i.e. +145%), we have a Target Zone for Apple at $300 - $350.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
$RESN Chance To Break Previous Highs?Volume is up over the last 45 days compared to 45 day period prior. The penny stock's news didn't hurt but what will help it go that extra distance
"Resonant Inc ( RESN ) enjoyed impressive gains on Wednesday. This came after it announced the agreement of an important deal. Resonant is involved in changing the ways in which radiofrequency front ends are designed. Yesterday, it announced that it had reached an agreement with radiofrequency and module provider Murata Manufacturing Co." *
About RESN
Resonant Inc is a late stage development company. It is developing software, intellectual property and a services platform to increase designer efficiency, reduce time to market and lower unit cost in the design of filters for radio frequency front ends for mobile device industry.
SOURCE: Are Penny Stocks Worth It? 3 Up Big In October
Netflix: Ideal long term Buy opportunity. Potential Target $650.Netflix has been under heavy selling pressure since July on the 1W chart (RSI = 31.642, MACD = -16.980, Highs/Lows = -48.8636) and is approaching the 231.23 December 2018 low. This is an ideal buy opportunity as the Demand Zone is set within 236.11 (Feb 2018 low) and 220 (expected contact with the 1W MA200 (orange line)).
Furthermore, what makes the current levels even more appealing is the fact that since 2015 a Double Bottom formation on the Demand Zone always initiated the next strong rally with the 1W MA200 supporting. Even in 2012 when then Double Bottom marginally broke, the Demand Zone held and delivered a rally of nearly +800%.
We are therefore long on NFLX and assuming the modest scenario of the 2015 rally is replicated, a +179% rise can push the price to $650.00. You are of course free to choose your own target zone with 385 - 415 Resistance Zone also an appealing option for short term investors.
*Note: the log chart was used on this study in order to best display the long term patterns.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
NASDAQ - Selling a re-test of the broken channelTrade Idea
Broken out of the channel formation to the downside.
Bespoke resistance is located at 7872.
We have a 50% Fibonacci pullback level of 7878 from 7776 to 7980.
We look for a re-test of the upward trending resistance.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
We look to Sell at 7870
Stop: 7910
Target 1: 7760
Target 2: 7636
Nasdaq: MA50 break-out aims at 8,300.Nasdaq has just crossed above the 1D MA50 on a very bullish technical outlook (RSI = 58.618, MACD = 2.240, Highs/Lows = 131.2143). The index is repeating the 2018 bull trend with the Highs and Lows price drops almost identical. As a result we have calculated the next High to be at 8,300 and this is our medium term target.
Note that this comparison has been very reliable and helped us catch both the previous High and Low of the pattern:
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Facebook: Long term Buy Opportunity. Two levels to watch.Facebook has been trading within a long term 1W Channel Up (RSI = 53.674, MACD = 5.760, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) having only recently made its Higher Low. Technically there can be room for one more minor pull back near the previous Low as the current candle sequence resembles that of February 2019. If however the 1D MA50 breaks (blue line) the pull back bias are invalidated and the 1W Channel Up can continue rising towards a new Higher High. Our Target is 220.00.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Are We Nearing The End of An Era? (Amazon & Netflix)In the last year or so, any time I've said to certain people that I thought Amazon, Apple, and other tech giants were in a bubble, they thought I was crazy. But now...I've noticed people are starting to worry. The chart looks scary. If the double-top is confirmed, and these guys break down below their December 2018 lows, we could easily see our first widespread stock market panic since 2008. Growth has stagnated, yet the job market is flourishing. Friends of mine are making six-figures right off the bat at tech companies I've never heard of, acting as glorified secretaries. Things don't add up. Where does this money come from?
Back in December, I wrote a few pieces on why I thought big tech was going to slow down. My primary feeling is that things have changed too rapidly in our every day lives for us to both biologically and psychologically cope with all this innovation. I think people are pretty satisfied with the current level of technological innovation, but they're dissatisfied in other areas (income, family, relationships, etc.). Opioid abuse is on the rise. Why do you think that is? People are lost. When everyone starts to give up and look for other routes for fulfillment, there is a point at which people will refuse to pay higher prices for things that give minimal reward. That's not to say that I don't think there will be more innovation. I just don't really see us adapting quickly to this growth. I believe things really need to slow down. When people stop desiring the newest and best thing enough to pay for it, these companies stop making money. Guess what? The growth has been so unsustainable that they cannot afford to stop making money, even for a little while. It's totally ridiculous. The proof of this is the panicky response of the FED to any sort of potential stock market worry. They're like my 11-month old kitten.
Articles keep popping up about how it's not time to panic "yet." The problem with these soothsaying excuses for journalism is that it will be too late. Even the media can't afford to lose money. No one wants a crash, because it would be devastating. But that's life! You can deny the hardships of existence all you want, but eventually things will turn bad. But hopefully, if things turn bad, they won't stay that way. Another pet peeve of mine is seeing two articles from Barron's within the SAME day: "Stocks Surge Because The Trade War May Not Be That Bad" and "Stocks Plunge Because The Trade War Is Far Worse Than We Imagined." Get it together! The trade war is not the primary cause of economic uncertainty. It's our own greed and our pathetic debt-fueled economy.
People are already starting to heavily weigh the risk/reward of staying in certain equities. People are even getting out of more speculative markets like marijuana and smaller crypto projects because they're reducing risk exposure. Yeah, maybe stocks have a liiiiitle bit of upside. But the downside? Anyone with a brain can look at the two above charts and see that there is a lot of room to fall. These are shown in linear scale to emphasize the parabolic nature of the growth we've experienced in the last decade. I picked Amazon and Netflix, because I see their business models as particularly fragile. Too big to fall? Just look at these charts. There is hardly technical support after the December lows are breached until roughly 50% down from that point. What does that tell you about the nature of the growth?
I could make an attempt to go into the real economic factors that would drive a 60-95% decline for many tech companies, but there are much more seasoned economists/analysis out there. I'm simply a guy who likes reading charts, sentiment, and particularly the psychology behind denial and delusion. Everyone's guilty of these things, including myself. That's the only way to understand it.
In my opinion:
Likelihood of sustained upside from here is less than 20%
Likelihood of extended bear market (negative 60-90 percent returns) from here is around 60% . This could even extend into the latter half of the 2020's, marking the next decade with poverty and upheaval, but hopefully resulting in some positive change.
Likelihood of a medium sized drop and then long consolidation I think is around 20%. That's only if regulatory and financial authorities figure out a solution.
If we really start to see breakdowns, I'll probably post some more short setups for some stocks, just for fun.
Netflix Bearish Targets:
230-245
130
82
46 (roughly 90% down from peak)
Amazon Bearish Targets:
1320
693
288-300 (possible bear market bottom) - Roughly 85% decline from peak.
As you can see, the potential deepest retraces for these equities are perfectly in line with previous bubble pops. We may not ever get down there, but there is substantial risk for it to happen. As for where all that money will go? Already some of it is fleeing towards precious metals and a little bit of Bitcoin. Buying property with cash is probably something people are doing as well. It'll be really interesting to see what happens.
It would be silly of me not to mention potential upside, by the way. I said I thought it was unlikely at this point (particularly due to the inability of the Dow Jones to sustain a new high above 27000), but it's perfectly possible if a magical stimulus is introduced that pumps the market with more fake money. Based on the potential double-top in the Amazon and Netflix charts above , it seems that people are no longer falling for these shenanigans, but you never know. Microsoft, for example, has blown past the potential double-top target from earlier this year (chart linked at bottom). MSFT is an outlier though. I posted a fractal analysis on the DJI a while ago. The in-depth analysis below shows that there could be more upside before the fractal potential completes, sending us into a downward spiral of uncertain depths. In this chart, you can see that the "mania" phase might have been short-lived compared with 1929. At least that would mean downside may not be as severe as the Great Depression.
This is basically me ranting my opinion. No one should take this as financial advice. These are purely my thoughts on the current situation. Thanks for your support!
-Victor Cobra
Entered my first marked "Buy Zone"NASDAQ:DOCU DocuSign entered my first area marked as a "Buy Zone", and where I had set a limit order. I now own some shares at 44.01, and have set my next limit buy in my second Buy Zone at 36.31. Depending on price action, I will either wait to buy there or add more in this area. Between 40 and 37 is my "No Man's Land" where I would be in limbo. This is a buy based almost solely on growth prospects, as I see the Fintech sector as being a strong leader in the future. One day your grandkids grandkids will have a dollar bill framed on the wall explaining to their kids how people used to have to carry around these dirty pieces of paper everywhere and hand them to other people. (Which they will be thoroughly repulsed by) DOCU is not a fintech company; however it stands to benefit greatly by the rise of fintech through the quick, convenient e-signature that will soon be a staple of all credit agencies/banks wordlwide. There are others inthe same line, but I am placing my bet on this recent IPO to be in its earliest stages of growth. Though the street hated last quarters earnings, the growth shown was staggering nonetheless. I like the company, I love the sector and all the various opportunities it presents. Happy hunting and GLTA!
NASDAQ - Engulfing on 4H chart, more downsidside expected.Trade Idea
Broken out of the channel formation to the downside.
A mild correction has been posted from yesterday’s low, this is seen as a retest of the breakout level.
The bearish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart is negative for sentiment.
Negative overnight flows lead to an expectation of a weaker open this morning.
Further downside is expected although we prefer to set shorts at our bespoke resistance levels at 7500, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Stop: 7570
Target 1: 7160
Target 2: 7000
[DMF] Hmm, that last study on PS ended weirdly... Let's dig in!Hey Traders!
In the last video we were analyzing DMF's performance against PluralSight (NASDAQ:PS) from 7/21-7/31/2019. Near the end of the video, I noticed that the study period ended with an open short position and I thought it'd be fun to do a quick peek at how it would have performed.
DMF issued a short signal just before the end of the trading session on 7/31 which led to a substantial return. In fact, that one trade exceeded the profit of the entire study period in the last video! But of course an individual call is not a great representation of the strategy, so I expanded the time range to show how it would have played out with a broader view of price movement patterns on either side of that two-day study.
Happy trading!
Links:
Directional Momentum Flux Strategy
DMF vs PluralSight (NASDAQ:PS) - A Two Week Performance StudyHey Traders!
Today we're looking at how the Directional Momentum Flux (DMF) strategy performed against PluralSight (NASDAQ:PS) during a study period consisting of the last 8 trading days of July, 2019. Overall, PS was rather subdued during the period (7/21 to 7/31/2019), but DMF was able to identify many momentum inflection points and generate a 13.66% return. Check out the video and join the discussion below!
Happy trading!
Links:
Directional Momentum Flux Strategy
TSLA at "make it or break it" moment$TSLA has been rebounding for just over a month now, but is facing a pretty heady resistance line. Price action is lagging behind our model a bit, but if price can make it through the resistance we could see a huge rally as everyone who were doubters pile back in.
Adobe: One last round of volatility before the new bull run.Adobe Inc is pulling back inside a 1D Channel Down (MACD = -0.030, RSI = 51.065, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) after the late April High. Having made a Golden Cross formation in mid March, is waves a long term buy signal. But on the shorter term a tough phase is expected where the 1D MA200 should be tested again, most likely providing the necessary support for the new long term bull cycle.
At least this is what happened on the last occurrence of the Golden Cross in in 2012. Golden Cross, then a market Top, same break below the MA50 inside a Channel Down and multiple tests of the MA200 which eventually held. Our long term TP for Adobe is 310.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Tesla: Long term buy opportunity.TSLA has made contact with the long term 1M Higher Low supporting trend line, which has provided strong rebound points since Nov 2013. This is the most optimal long term buy opportunity as 1W is approaching the oversold zone (RSI = 32.837). We are long on Tesla targeting 265 before the end of the year and 360 - 380 on a two year horizon.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Netflix: On the verge of a new aggressive bull run.NFLX has made a Triple Bottom this week on 1D (RSI = 45.541). This calls for an immediate test of the 385 Resistance which is our short term TP.
There is however an interesting development on 1W as well. This Triple Bottom may provide the base for Netflix's new Bull Cycle as in mid March a Golden Cross took place (1DMA50 crossing above 1DMA200) and the price has been on hold to break out higher ever since. The recent trade war news is the reason for this delay and 1W has managed to withstand the pressure by staying neutral (RSI = 53.528, STOCH = 52.597, Highs/Lows = 0.0000).
This creates ideal conditions for a long term bullish break out similar to the last two Golden Crosses since 2014. In 2014 Netflix gained roughly +93% after the Golden Cross and until the next Death Cross (opposite). In 2016 it gained a striking +250%. It is obvious that the upside potential is much larger than the 385 short term target and can extend to 600 in a year's time.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
S&P uptrend ending soonMomentum is slowing down as we approach ath and it looks price could reverse soon.
Tech stocks: The FAANG bubble popped. We are at a prime area for return to normal bull run to top.
Expect disapointing earnings fueling a selloff. Even if they are good we selloff anyway probably :p
And drive the whole market lower.
FAANG all in the same situation and big other ones too.
We seem to be at a time where retail dominated markets reverse in that area.
The chartguys whose videos I sometimes watch says that we could go up easilly if BioTech bounces.
FAANG alone are 11% of the snp and every one watches them, the whole planet knows about them.
Biotech is smaller and less people care and Theranos (eksdee).
Odds look good or ok.
APPLE: Still bullish, aiming for another Gap upwards.AAPL has been on a very strong rise since the early January bottom, trading within a steady 1W Channel Up (RSI = 61.638, MACD = 3.680, Highs/Lows = 11.9657) with clear Higher Lows (entries) and Higher Highs (exits).
Every Gap of the late 2018 correction appears to be a target for this Channel Up, which later is turned into a Support. In that sense the current Support Zone (buy entry) is 196.23 - 198.85 and Target Zone is 213.25 - 217.45.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.