ABC Correction is Complete. Moon Time!I think the ABC correction is done and we're probably heading for another Impulse Wave. 4h RSI is at 20 which has been a good buy signal historically. We're also at a good trend line support. Hoping to close this position at around $52 with no stop loss.
Happy Trading :)
Techstocks
Experiment a new strategy with stocks. Tech stocks mostly.Going to base this on divergence at resistance, divergence of several indicators/oscillators.
Looking at several timeframes.
Let's see how this goes.
I allocated $1000 to a CFD account, just for experimenting (demo accounts with fake money are boring).
I think it should work, but let's see how it goes after 10-20 trades.
Oh also I have to remember to separate between bear trades and bull ones.
I bet bull work all the time...
US stocks updates. Anyone has a clue how this works?Long on my bank account!
Goodbye crypto you bore me to death.
Time to look at US Stocks.
They say in FX (and I figured Oil too) what you have to do is understand the patterns then your job is doing the same trades automatically, which is what I am doing, my system is near perfect now. I think I am good to go, every week end I check the charts and feed my custom indicator, I got a few tweaks to make on it but it should be good to go next week nothign can stop me now. Except regulators...
See? Took me 1 month of manual trading + 1 month of semi-auto trading in FX to figure it out and from now on it is just autopilot.
They say "using a magical indicator to get easy trades finding the perfect system is what retail traders look for but it is not possible".
I said "Stay silent worm and watch as your god does exactly that!"
And I did it. Took 2 months.
Easy!
But stocks, they say stocks are different... no autopilot is possible, you have to constantly analyse it...
Argmpf but I am so lazy. Now I am looking for patterns, and in particular I am looking to go with the trend on retraces, I think it is very possible I find a winning strategy here. Going to spend the week end typing values in an excel file... Just like what I did with FX... It's all happening over again.
Not that many ideas about stocks on TradingView, unless I missed those?
Ideas comments welcome...
Anyway, going full autopilot is pretty dull, at least I'll spend time having fun checking bagholder quotes to "get a feel" of a stock, and constantly check what direction it is going.
For now nothing. I will check a dozen stocks with high volume and clear trend this weekend.
Nasdaq Head and Shoulders Measured Out, Bear Market Bounce?Just like the SPX and DJI charts I looked at, this thing measures slightly past the Bear Market threshold... it may touch the target, doesn't mean it will close there though... If the current top proves to be the last shoulder, July 27th is when this is expected to play out by
Intelligence Front RTNB Insider Trading Before Delisting, Stock got halted before the close, the day before it was to be delisted. It never opened back up, volume was significant, all the scanners picked it up so it was the biggest mover of the day. My guess is either someone had a lot of naked shorts they needed to cover before they removed it from the Nasdaq, or somebody had a deal with someone to cover their shorts to drive up the price so insiders could dump whatever shares they had left. Very unusual that it would trade that much on such negative news, then get halted for several days. Also, and this is just my opinion, but I think this company was a front for some intelligence operation. You have General Michael Hayden, a retired four-star general who served as director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2006-2009) and the National Security Agency (1999-2005), and Michael Chertoff, former director of Homeland Security, and co-author of the Patriot Act, on the advisory board. The company then goes under, gets dished off to a private company that's connected to the Trump administration. I feel bad for the shareholders that ended up holding the bag. Seems like this is the tip of an iceburg bigger than me, but it was interesting digging into this thing. Company also had 200 employees
Global Blockchain Technologies Breakout?Over the last few months Global Blockchain Technologies Corp broke out of its long price action slump with the announcement of a name change (...LOL...). Now they have announced involvement in crypto mining. Coupled with the fact that institutional investors are super yield hungry in an environment with prolifically low return on capital rates - even negative with inflation in many cases - this could be a monster trade.
In pure technical terms, regardless of the fundamentals, we have an ascending wedge that could breakout to the upside. A break above the max consolidation range will also be a signal taking this stock very high, which used to trade at one point in time at $460!
Cheers and GLWT!
-Erik
NASDAQ Could Offer KILLER value in the futureThis quarterly trend line projected from the Q4 '08 and Q3 '10 key lows is what has held up this long-term rally and is extremely significant because of that. There's been some talk lately in the trading community about the reliability of trend-lines and whether or not they're useful, judging by this chart I'd say if drawn correctly they're pretty damn reliable...
This is an ideal time for a high on the quarterly time frame according to bull cycle counts. If price can bounce and pullback to the trend line and reject it with some nice price action I'll buy the hell out of it (notice how the fibs and major 2000 high sit right on top of that area). If it breaks this line then look out below...
There may be some opportunities to play a move (short) into that support area via this index and/or $AAPL but I need to see confirmation of a top. I'm not trying to get honey-dicked with a bear trap like everyone whos been shorting US equities over the past year or two.
I'll post more analysis and go over the opportunities once things become clearer.
Checkout my website @ PatsTrades (link is on my profile page below my picture) for my analysis on other trades like this and subscribe to avoid missing out on ideas and entries.
Thanks!!
FB headed for 150 USD then likely to correct 10-15%Short term bull until this move with FB and QQQ finishes. Possible profit taking and strong resistance around diagonal support line 1 could keep the price in zone 1 (red circle). Lines 2 and 3 currently offer support. Should see a typical 10-15% sell off this would send FB back down to zones 2 and 3, with support at lines 4 (black) and X (red). The 100 day moving average is also approaching support line x from zone 4. Lets look for the RSI to dip back down under 70 to signal the top. Then its time to get short, sell or prepare to buy more
Amazon, are your responding?To me Amazon is a clearly heading for new heights, as the Coppock curve ( Eclipse) has just turned positive, also so has the Aroon oscillator, showing a positive trend has emerged. This is supported by the Cyclic lines showing the positive stock trend is just one of many. The 50 moving average is providing support, and the stock recently broke out of the sending triangle pattern. If you are thinking the stock is overvalued and how high can it possibly go? Then Buy and find out!
LONG FACEBOOK: 7% PULLBACK & SOLID FUNDAMENTALSWanted to make this post as FB as opened up a chance for a lower risk entry point.
FB has pulled back 6% which is the first time in months that it has given any $ away to the market - hence i recommend buying and holing until 1$20.
Trading strategy
I suggest buying in a pyramid, and adding more long FB if it continues to fall e.g. 1@114 2@111 3@10 6 etc
As FB is such a strong stock in terms of net income and revenue (grew 250% yoy in april) and holds a monopoly in the social media market.
Volatility
- Vols have been trading higher for FB in recent days, with Implieds trading much higher (26% vs 14%) than HV possibly inferring that the market is expecting further pull backs BUT the above trading strategy is built for a scenario like this (and actually is more profitable is FB continues to fall)
- One thing to note is that it isnt really shocking for FB Imp Vol to be trading higher, since price falls = higher vols in general - and i may add that implieds are still only trading at the 40th percentile , i consider 80th to be extreme/ worrying so we have some cushion before we get to that.
- Finally FB risk reversals are trading at +0.8, meaning in the options market we are seeing more demand for calls at these levels - this is a bullish bias for the spot stock market also as it is an indicator of overall sentiment.
Volume
- FB volume has spiked predictably, as we would expect in a falling market, but it still trades about the average so i think Supply/Demand is balanced so it is safe to enter.
-I would like to see volume trade below average in the coming days to help give us a bullish push but i am not worried if not - infact i would prefer some further downside since FB hasnt given us much for months.
Technicals
- We have a nice support handle at 113, 110, 108 - clear re-entry points for me. FB ATR is trading below average which is good meaning price volatility isnt too stochastic, and this is just a controlled pullback.
- It also looks like FB is just filling the earnings gap it created in April. The actual candles formed have traded about the median, with equal wick/ range lengths higher/lower, which also suggests this downside doesnt have too much momentum, as i would expect to see the price close at the lows if this was the case.
- Also as you can see FB is trading at the -2SD level on the 4h, which historically is a good level of support and another + for entry. We have also just crossed the 60 day VWMA meaning that FB is trading at a cheap price which is good for entry and a higher probability trade.
APPLE: BULLISH VOL CROSS AND SUPPLY SIDE; BUT DEMAND DEFICIENCYVolume
Apple Volume traded up for the first time in 4 days on thursday, increasing 25% from 20m to 26m, whilst this may be considered bearish - as increased selling, it is important to not 26m is still 35%-40% below the 4wk and 6month average.
Volume cannot fall forever and we have been trading at extremely low volumes all week, so given these facts, a modest rise from 20m-26m is still bullish IMO given that apple traded at 46m last week, so even at 26m now we are still significantly depressed on the supply side - though the demand deficient problem of the recent times remained rife in the stock yesterday, where the stock fails to attract new liquidity, which is all the stock needs to ask the price up given the perfect, low supply environment apple is currently in.
Historical and Implied Vols
We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as implied traded flat yesterday, up only 10bps at 21.02.
Also, a bullish cross pattern emerged between HV and IV, where HV is crossing lower then IV.
The shorter period 5/10 HVs are already trading below IV, but yesterday the 20/30 period HV also made a bid to make a move below IV in the coming days.
As i have highlighted from the last bull cycle on the graph, when the 4 HVs traded bid and started falling (to eventually trade below IV), Apples price was bullish, rising over 10usd, such interactions between HV and IV is historically highly correlated bullish behaviour. In april as you can see it was Earnings uncertainty that caused the relationship to unnaturally break down - in previous bulls, the HV < IV has allowed bull runs to continue for several months before.
Vol correlation with apples price also traded flat remained above the -90% and maintaining my bullish view with the indicator.
Evaluation
Much of same from apple, where we are witnessing a perfect "bull run" environment (low all round vols, low volume, low price) but the demand side remains the issue - likely due to apples poor mirco-econ environment of poor confidence/ fear regarding their future performance and the ever looming July Earnings, which is artificially keeping demand low for apple.
I dont expect any significant upside today from apple, given fridays are normally the worst day for stocks due to the "end of week" sell-off that occurs as some money managers cannot hold open risk on their books over the weekend.
IMO i expect apple to close 99.2, higher if we are lucky.
If we dont have a bull run soon, we may not see one until august, given that i expect apples price to trade low/ down in the 3 weeks before earnings as investors remember Aprils tragic sell-off and try to avoid a similar event (even if it is unlikely).