SMCI You won't be able to catch this rally after it starts.Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has so far followed to near perfection our last long-term analysis (May 13, see chart below) where we called for a prolonged accumulation (red Rectangle) of at least another 2-months before the real cyclical rally started:
We called then that 'patience will be rewarded' and the stock is finally close to rewarding your patience on the long-term. As you can see, every time in the past 18 months that the stock formed an Accumulation Phase this long, it then posted an incredible rally of +417%.
Throughout this process, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) always remained intact and supported. The rally started when the 1D MA200 got to its closest with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the exact situation we're at right now.
As a result, we expect the parabolic rally to start any day now and as the title says, once it starts it will be difficult to catch. Typically entries within the Accumulation Phase should be done while it lasts. Our long-term Target is intact at $3500 (exactly +417% from the recent Low).
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Techstocks
Apple - Caution at the all time high!NASDAQ:AAPL just created a new all time high, however we have to be quite careful now.
Trading cycles in an overall uptrend is one of the most profitable trading approaches. You are trying to capitalize on the major upswings and missing out on the major downswings. Apple is currently retesting resistance and probably creating the top of the previous cycle. I am waiting for a move back to support before we will then see the next major bullish cycle on Apple.
Levels to watch: $240, $170
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
TESLA Massive pump to $360 coming based on historical behaviour.Tesla (TSLA) is recovering today after a sharp pull-back yesterday of around -14%. This marks the stock's first serious correction since the rally started in late June. Ahead of an emerging Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, we looked at Tesla's similar historical patterns since the IPO that offer remarkable insight.
First and foremost, Tesla's recent pattern has been an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), which as we've noted on a previous analysis, was its bottom reversal formation that made the price break above the 3-year Lower Highs Resistance trend-line.
Similar IH&S patterns were formed in 2019/20, 2016/17 and 2012/13. So we can claim that there might be a roughly 4-year Cyclical Behavioural Pattern behind Tesla's growth. The word 'growth' is key here as after every such pattern and more importantly a correction of around -15% after breaking above the IH&S, the stock price rallied parabolically into new expansion levels.
As you can see on the 2019/20 pattern the correction was around -10%, on the 2016/17 around -15% and on the 2012/13 around -15% as well. Yesterday's -14% correction along with today's sharp recovery to the 0.5 Fib (losses cut by 50%), seems to fulfil this growth pattern.
As far as a Target is concerned, on all previous cases, the price reached (and even surpasses significantly) at least the 1.5 Fibonacci extension measuring from the pattern's bottom (Head of the IH&S). In 2019/20 it took the price around 1.5 month to approach the 1.5 Fib while in 2012/13 it took roughly 2 months.
As a result, our new medium-term Target on Tesla is $360.00 (marginally below the 1.5 Fib).
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TESLA Buy the dip, correction nearly over. $285 next short-term.Tesla (TSLA) is bleeding hard today but that shouldn't if you got on that rally early like our June 13 (see chart below) buy signal suggested while the price was still trading in the low 180s:
Our long-term Target remains $400.00 and today's sharp correction is nothing but a strong technical buy opportunity. In fact, this pull-back is not stranger to Tesla. The stock has seen a similar rejection near the 2.0 Fibonacci extension during its May - July 2023 rally on the June 21 2023 High.
As you can see, the price declined by -13.00% back to the 1.382 Fibonacci level. At the time of the (temporary High), the 1D RSI was at 89.00, roughly where it got rejected today. The price recovered when the RSI was at 57.00.
As a result, from a R/R perspective, it is worth taking another buy on the current market price and target the 2.236 Fib extension (similar to the JUly 19 2023 High) at $285.00.
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Nasdaq Composite - Can U see this happening?I can.
See it.
And also Believe it.
These securities are measured in #Fiat
which only becomes worth ... less with each passing year.
Until #Vivek comes into office, of course and backs the dollar with a basket of commoditie!
(maybe that basket may include #BTC)
Inverse head and shoulders has massive linear and log targets
Will be fun to watch this play out.
AMD a great stock to have in your portfolio to the end of yearLast time we looked at the Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), we made a short-term call (June 20, see chart below) at the bottom of the Bull Flag, with the price responding flawlessly, and is currently on its way for a Higher High on our $190.0 Target:
Before that, it was on May 15 (see chart below) where we called for a buy exactly at the bottom of the cyclical correction/ Bearish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up:
Just a quick reminder, it was back in March when we waved the strongest 1W sell signal on AMD and it surgically delivered (chart below):
In any event, back to today, the price has just broken above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and established the last two trading sessions there. With the 1D RSI approaching the 70.00 overboughr barrier, we are on the exact same level that AMD was during both previous Bullish Legs (circle).
This suggests that we are only at the very start of the new Bullish Leg and based on the Sine Waves, it should start peaking end of December - start of January 2025. We are moving our long-term Target higher to $320.00.
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As you see, we couldn't have gotten a more efficient long-term buy entry than that and the stock has basically confirmed the start of the new uptrend/ Bullish Leg
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ROCKET LAB 1st 1D Golden Cross in 1 year!Rocket Lab (RKLB) is up heavily following our last buy call (May 29, see chart below) and is approaching our $5.50 short-term Target:
Since however the Lower Highs trend-line is now a bit lower and the medium-term pattern since April's bottom emerged as a Channel Up (dotted), we lower this short-term Target to $5.35.
The key development of the week though is none other than the formation (today) of the 1st Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame in 1 year (since June 20th 2023). As a result, we don't expect the rally to stop there but instead to accelerate tiwards the 2-year Higher Highs trend-line. This is a seasonal rally that RKLB has done in the past two years during July-August. Our long-term Target is 8.75.
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AI Bubble grows above resistance for QQQThe gap up and follow through today shows a clear break above the 2010 trading channel that has provide resistance so far. I see a pattern very close to that of July 6, 2020. The is not confirmation yet that price is out of the channel and that resistance has become support, but for the bulls this is a very good start. I would expect the bulls to try and run with it now that price is above the channel. I will also be watching for a pullback to test for support in the near future. If that can hold, the AI bubble may get really pumped. We can never know what will spook the market, but right now it feels like the sky is the limit.
Today
July 6, 2020
NVDIA Not the time to buy yet.NVDIA corporation (NVDA) is on the 3rd straight week of losses following the mid-June High, which was a Higher High at the top of the 20-month Channel Up. During that time the stock turns into a Buy only after it breaks below its 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
As you can see some times the bottom process takes longer, other times it is very short. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) hasn't been broken since mid-January 2023. At the moment, the stock has started the new Bearish Leg. Past such Legs extended to at least -22.56% and with a maximum -26.18%.
We are ready to buy at $110.00 and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $170.00 (each Higher High is on a Fibonacci extension lower).
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ELI LILLY Entering consolidation phase. Wait for the buy signal.Last time we looked at Eli Lilly (LLY) was on March 18 (see chart below) and we got the most out of it as we entered after a 1D MA50 correction and got the most optimal value:
Our original target was $1050 calculated according to the % rise of each previous Bullish Leg (+45%) of the +1 year Channel Up but now it appears that the stock won't hit that level during this Leg as we are entering the bottom phase of the Sine Wave.
As you can see on the chart (now on the 1W time-frame), this is where LLY typically pulls-back and consolidates (red Rectangle) until the next Bullish Leg begins near the 1D MA100 (red trend-line).
As a result, we are closing our bottom buy position and turn neutral on LLY until we approach the 1D MA100 again, starting mid-August.
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MICROSOFT $450 Target hit. Potential consolidation ahead.Microsoft (MSFT) easily hit our $450.00 medium-term Target that we called on our last signal (May 01, see chart below):
That call came on the most optimal buy entry, with the price right at the bottom of the 18-month Channel Up. The symmetry between the pattern's Legs is very high and based on the previous Bullish Leg (dotted Channel Up), we should now get a medium-term consolidation to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then resume the uptrend.
The Higher High was priced just above the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, our next Target is $480.
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MICROSTRATEGY Bottom on Inverse Head and Shoulders. Eyeing $2000MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) is about to complete the Right Shoulder of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is a bottom formation technically. The Head was formed on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), a long-term Support for the stock, while the price is now testing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Resistance.
We saw this exact same behaviour on MSTR's previous bottom (May 01) and right when it broke above the 4H MA50, it peaked marginally above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, we expect a similar development and our Target is $2000.
Notice also that right when the price was testing the 4H MA50 last time, the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, which is what it is currently doing. Strong similarities everywhere.
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TESLA It has begun...Tesla (TSLA) is on almost a +5.00% rise today an aggressive reaction to the market news and technically extending an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern as we mentioned on our previous analysis (see chart below):
It is a good time to shift to the longer term time-frame of 1W, where this IH&S pattern is a bottom formation that Tesla has registered before all of its major long-term rallies. The one that looks from cyclical start to finish with today's pattern is the period of 2014 - 2016.
Once the price broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) on that pattern, Tesla started a rally that peaked on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension level. Observe similar the 1W RSI patterns are as well between the two Cycles.
If the stock repeats that Fibonacci target, we can get a price as high as $700.00. That is of course a very optimistic scenario but even the more pessimistic one, has a (dotted) Channel Up targeting its top on the 3.5 Time Fib at around $400, which is almost the All Time High (ATH) for Tesla.
As a result, we see $400 as a real posibility for the end of the year.
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SMCI Excellent short-term buy opportunity.Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the April 22 Low, with every Bullish Leg registering at least a +35.80% rise. The price is now just below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the final technical confirmation that's needed is for the 4H MACD to form a Bullish Cross.
As a result, this is an excellent short-term buy opportunity. Or Target is $1050 (just below the +35.80% mark).
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AMD broke above the 3-week Bull Flag. Major buy signal!On March 13 (see chart below) we issued a major sell signal on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), as we saw the stock topping at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of its 2-year Channel Up:
Our projection was materialized as the price corrected significantly by -37% and has almost reached the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was the level that held, formed the latest Higher Low of the Channel Up and made us give a new long-term buy signal a month ago (while also the 1W RSI reached the symmetrical Support level of the October 2023 bottom (45.50)).
Today the buy sentiment got stronger than ever as AMD not only broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but also above the giant Bull Flag pattern that started on the May 28 High. With the 1D MACD about to form a Bullish Cross, a very strong long-term buy signal emerges that call for a new Bullish Leg similar to at least the May 02 - 28 one.
If the prevailing structure is a Channel Up then expect a +23.65% rise, which puts our Target at $190.00 (just below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
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APPLE formed 1st 1D Golden Cross in 15 months! Attention needed.It wasn't long ago when we called for a buy on Apple's (AAPL) absolute technical bottom (April 25 and May 02, see charts below respectively):
Needless to say that the 198.00 Target has been smashed. As the price reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 20-month (blue) Channel Up, the stock turned sideways and has been consolidating for the past 4 sessions.
This is a strong indication of a medium-term Top. If rejected, we expect a Channel Down correction to at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), where we will again buy for the long-term. If broken though, we will buy the first 1D candle close above the (blue) Channel Up and target $250.00.
The reason for this bullish expectation is that Apple just formed the first 1D Golden Cross in 15 months (since March 22 2023). Last time it did, the price had already initiated the new Bullish Leg (in the form of a blue dotted Channel Up). It only started the medium-term correction of July 2023, when it closed a full candle below the 4H MA50 (thin red trend-line).
At the same time, the 1W RSI had to hit the 79.00 overbought level. As a result, if you do turn bullish upon a 1D candle breaking above the (blue) Channel Up, consider booking the profit earlier if 4H MA50 breaks or the 1W RSI gets rejected on its 79.00 Resistance (unless your portfolio can support the correction).
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Nasdaq - We still have to be careful!TVC:NDQ is still retesting resistance after we just saw an expected rally of +75%.
More than a decade ago, the Nasdaq entered one of the most profitable and easy to trade patterns: a rising channel formation. In the beginning of 2023 the Nasdaq once again retested the lower support trendline in confluence with a retest of horizontal support and continued its bullrun from there. But currently resistance is ahead so we have to be quite careful and properly monitor price action on the smaller timeframes.
Levels to watch: $19.000, $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
BROADCOM Short-term pull-back in order?Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) easily hit the 1800 Target that we set on last month's analysis (May 22, see chart below) and made a new Higher High at the top of the 20-month Channel Up:
The symmetrical leg at the end of 2023, got rejected right below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension back to the 2.0 Fib. Even the 1D RSI is on the same levels as December 18 2023. As a result, we are turning bearish short-term on AVGO, targeting 1670.
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#NETFLIX Could rip faces in a Reactionary RALLYAfter getting destroyed and dropping like a #Crypto
The chart has showed relative strength
and formed a Bullish CUP & HANDLE
Some stocks will probably not survive these market conditions in the next couple years, which is healthy
So look for signs of strength vs the broader market
TESLA Huge Inverse Head & Shoulders ahead of Musk's $56B vote!Tesla (TSLA) broke today above its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time in more than 5 months (since January 04) and ahead of Musk's $56 billion today, seems to be completing an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern.
Technically this is a pattern seen in major market bottom's. This time it is being formed within the broader pattern of the Bearish Megaphone. A standard 2.0 Fibonacci extension Target would test the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of that Megaphone, considerably above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, our medium-term Target is $225.00, marginally below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
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ROCKET LAB Bullish break-out imminent.Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) has completed a Bull Flag pattern (green Channel), trading right below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been its long-term Resistance since January 24 2024. Based on its 2-year Cyclical pattern, the stock should surge aggressively if it breaks above the 1D MA200.
The 1D RSI is posting the exact same formation it had during the break-outs of May 2023 and July 2022. All formed after strong rebounds within the Support Zone.
In any case, our medium-term Target $5.50, which will be a test of the Lower Highs trend-line, similar to June 07 2023.
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