Ethereum: Technical Analysis. Bull or Bear, possible weeks aheadHi everyone, this is my first post here on TradingView. A little bit about me: I'm an Economics nerd (although, compared to some of the folks here, I feel like a total noob). I graduated from the University at Albany in 2011 with a major in Economics and minor in Computer Applications in Business. Currently I work as a Business Systems Analyst for one of the top hospitals in the Albany, NY region. I got into Cryptocurrencies beginning of last year when BTC shot through the roof, started my own mining and then trading. But unlike many who got in because of FOMO and then got out because of FUD, I've become a superfan of the crypto-currency asset class, primarily because I truly see the future of transactions and contracting through various blockchain technology and secondly (luckily) my knowledge and intuition in Economics has helped me navigate this CRAZY space with a little bit more calm and insight than some who may not be as into Economics and Economic theories as I am.
Before I get into my first analysis I just want to clarify a few things:
* This is not trading advice for others, just my analysis for myself that I wanted to share.
* I hold (XRP, TRX, XLM) and trade (ETH, BTC, BCH) cryptocurrencies.
* I trade conservatively. ALWAYS DISCARD EXTREME PEAKS AND TROUGHS.
* Mathematics is the language of the universe, and it is the same in anything that can form a trend.
* Layman's terms are the best. As long as you have common sense and intuition in numbers, it's all a game of averages.
* Knowledge is power. Especially in the Crypto world. Game of averages only get affected by ** major news/breakthroughs/breakdowns **
Alright so looking at the following chart, what do we see?
During the gut-punch that was November 2018, Ethereum like most major CCs, crumbled. Between Nov 12th and 14th, the price plummeted from ~$210 to ~$165, briefly trying to form a support to bounce from, which failed. Between Nov 18th and 20th, another drop happened to ~$128, which basically continued until finding the bottom around December 7th @ $83.00 and a double bottom on December 15th.
This allowed us to draw some parallel lines which would indicate, on average, what channels the prices should be moving. As we've already established, $128 failed to provide support on Nov 18th to bounce back from, and we've had solid support from ~$83 onwards. We can see from the following graph, that upward movement following the double bottom has been consistent over a fairly long period of time (30+ days now).
The issue that traders such as myself are (were?) facing is basically finding solid support above the $83 zone. Now if you follow the chart above, again, you'll see that following bounce from $83 between Dec 10th - 17th, prices moved up pretty nicely until Dec 24th. By nicely, I mean steady, sustainable upward movements. The sudden sharp upward movement of Dec 24th was always going to be heavily corrected in this bear market, and that is what happened, although the Bulls (myself included) tried to sustain the $150 support levels until Jan 9th when another massive sell bear-attack happened which broke the $130 support line, and we were able to find some solid support between ~$113 and ~120.
What does all this mean? We've been moving in a narrow channel between $114 and $120 since January 13th. We've seen some major pumps and some even more massive dumps which show strong resistance above $120, possibly up to $130. Mathematically, if you look at these parallel lines, you can see clearly, how the prices are moving "ON AVERAGE" around those lines. Today is Sunday, January 20th. Prices for Ether are around $117 after another huge drop this morning, BUT 1 HR RSI indicators show that Ethereum remains in undersold condition and MACD shows that volume is pretty low, so there's room for improvement.
The important thing to remember is if you look at the 3 possible patterns I've drawn out, you can clearly see (in layman's perspective) what needs to happen.
* Scenario 1 Blue line: Best case scenario if price breaks $120, $130 and then hovers between $130-$134 (lean bull-ish). Means MAJOR solid support has formed from $116.
* Scenario 2 Green line: Best case scenario if price breaks $125, $135, then holds between $135 - $140 (DEF lean bull-ish). Means MAJOR solid support formed from $120.
* Scenario 3 Red line: Worst case scenario most of us wouldn't want to see. Price barely breaks $120, and then hovers between $120-$124. If this happens, another lower parallel line will need to be drawn as an average of the lower prices. Means MINOR support has formed around $114 and is susceptible to the Bear.
So if we see continued lower highs followed by CONSISTENTLY HIGHER lows or HIGHER HIGHS, that's a good sign. Scenario 1 is the middle of the line scenario, without extreme peaks and troughs. Scenario 2 confirms bear market is slowly retreating FOR SURE. Scenario 3: bear is still not hibernating/we're just not sure. By end of January/early Feb, if Ether prices are not "ON AVERAGE" over $132, I'd be concerned, but anything over $130 CONSISTENTLY is a good sign. If however, prices are STAGNATING around $116-$120, I'd be concerned.
So trade carefully, if you have your hard earned money invested here or do day trade, don't be too greedy. Try to take profits between narrow channels the best you can. My analysis basically takes into account the average, middle of the lines movement, to give a picture on where the average position should be following bounces in parallel channels. There might be extreme highs or extreme lows but as long there's not a pattern forming, you can't take the extreme highs or lows as indicators of bull or bear.
Finally, definitely don't pay attention to analysis that say BTC will drop to $200 or similar nonsense. I've seen some analysis by some very scrupulous posters, and I want to make the community aware that these are just really messed up people who just want to create FUD among even a few of our community members, and profit off their naivety. CCs are the future of trade and commerce. Invest into meaningful projects, trade some, HODL some, and read read read!!! Be smart and don't be super greedy. Thanks for reading. Please like my post if you find it interesting! :)
Tehnicalanalysis
NAS- Nebulas BTC#NASBTC situating into a #FallingWedge
Event - Nebulas Beta Nova in 31.Dec
coinmarketcal.com/en/event/v-2-se-function-release-9629
First Target 1770
Second Target 1960
3-rd Target 2524
4-nd Target 2528
AION BTC
BINANCE:AIONBTC
Aion against BTC is situated into accumulation zone and it s near their support zone also
Stoch is down, RSI below neutral zone but we have to watch the support at 598 sats
If this will be broked sure this coin will go at 556 sats which is a strong strong fib support
In any case i think it s a good coin and we can accumulate it
If we look the chart,between 13-14 october the volume was trippled
This means the big boys are bought a lot of AION.
GOBTC - SHORTBITTREX:GOBTC is situating into an Ascending Channel (Bearish Pattern) where they can touch once again the support of this channel which is 38.2 fib at 962 sats
Second target 840 sats which is fib 0.5 and the last is 0.618 fib which is 778 sats
RSI is overbought because is above 70
Stoch also in overbought zone this will come down
You can put your buy orders at 778 satoshi which is 0.618.
SCBTCBINANCE:SCBTC now is situated into a Symmetrical Triangle and it s still Bullish becouse we are above Ichimoku cloud and still have Support from this (cloud green)
The volume also is increased which is Bullish sign
We need to close above this red candle and next target will be 133 sats which is 61.8% fib
Wait for confirmation and after you can entry
RSI 59 it s also bullish
FUNBTC LONGBINANCE:FUNBTC is situated into a Triangle which will make a huge breakout becouse we are near globaly bottom for FUN which is 186 satsoshi(fib 0)
This level was be touched in September and now they can make a beautifull DOUBLE BOTTOM pattern at 1D timeframe
Rsi also can make a Tripple bottom
First target for this double bottom is 248 sats which is 23.60 fibonaci resistance and also internal projection resistance from this triangle
Second target is 286 sats which is 38.2 fibonaci resistance
FOR LONG (IF DOUBLE BOTTOM CONFIRMED) sell target is 317 348 390
We have a very nice BREAKOUT SETUP for this coin.
Stratis(STRAT)-BTC LONGBINANCE:STRATBTC is situating into a Triangle, (fib support is 1834 ) and we have a good chance to grow from here.
Sell targets is : Sell Target 2450-2840-3175-3495 Satoshi
ETHBTC LONGBINANCE:ETHBTC is situated into a Bear Pennant which is bearish
We have a very strong resistence Ichimoku Cloud) and also if you zoom a little bit this chart you can see a Bearflag into this Bear Pennant so the downtrend will confirmed
Cboe futures will expire in 16-17 october which will result into BTC dump and altcoins will follow
ETHBTC target is ~0.00275 btc for a Double Bottom
After we can see a nice breakout becouse the ichimoku will be less/thin and also double bottom is a reversal pattern
FUNBTC LONGFun is situated into a falling wedge from july and also into a triangle which support line is also the line of global support
There are 2 possibilities
FUN will grow now when it comes out of the triangle or will fall to global support(has bearflag, see update), where from it will begin to grow enormously
Stoch is also heavy oversolded
I think will break upward soon.We need a little bit more volume
ADABTC LONGADA is situated into a falling wedge pattern which is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower in the end we will see a breakout with a trend reversal
Ada made a double top at 1339, ichimoku cloud rezistence that s massive and also bearish sentiment in market in this way the price will going down.
Where can i buy ?
First bigger support is at 960-980 sats so this can be your first target but all time buy partialy
Second is the BOTTOM at 620-710 sats
Why to buy this ?
Is the best coin in this cryptoworld easy you can make 3x in q1 2019 becouse they will launch Shelly mainnet which means ada will be descentralized and you have posibility of staking with aprox 3,7% ROI/year
Their github activity is at 2nd place
In bullmarket ADA is a monster a solid japan coin and all time the fomo comes in
First target for this coin when will be launched Shelly(descentralization+staking) is 4264 which is 0.5 fib rezistence and second target 5122 sats which means 0.618 fib rezistence and also in feb-march-april the market will grow organic
BTCUSD LONGBitcoin at the moment is situated into a descending triangle which means will be a final breakdown and also a sell-off with 5400-4800 target (fib 0.236 resistence) .
After when it reach this target will be a reversal in the market( Probably RSI will be below 30 and now stoch is near at heavy oversold place).
When it reach fib 0.236 resistence can be a good long buy oportunity BITFINEX:BTCUSD
BTCUSD Support and Resistance Levels! fibonacci and Gann AnalyseHere we see the BTC chart with some indicators that lets us see the moving of the price in a whole different way.
we see breaks at crucial price movements with Gann levels and fibonacci.
but we want to know when to buy and when to sell and those lines are telling us what to do at which moment!
the next support levels are at.
$6330
$5850
$5200
$4700
$4200
this doesn't mean we will hit every level!!!
RSI show us to wait with buying it can go lower therefor we can hit another down movement. so at least a few hundred bucks down.
What is the best thing to do right now?
Not to sell all of your BTC but even so not to use all of your Investment portofolio!
You can Enter the market with only using a part of your whole Capital to invest in Crypto.
this part can be max 10% to 25% of your total Capital that you want to use. for example $ 10k is your max investment so 10% = $1000