EURO BUND : STRONG DOWNTREND | NEW TARGET POINT | SHORT ⚡️Euro climbs and German bund yields surge as ECB officials put July rate hike in play
The euro was stronger and the yield on the 2-year German bund surged after European Central Bank officials talked up the possibility of rate hikes as early as July. Luis de Guindos, vice president of the ECB, said, "from today's perspective, July is possible and September, or later, is also possible," while Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch told Bloomberg News said it's a "no brainer" to take rates to zero, or even positive territory, by the end of the year, unless the economy suffers a severe shock. Since the main ECB rate is negative 0.5%, taking rates to positive territory implies three hikes by the end of the year. The yield on the 2-year German bund TMBMKDE-02Y, 0.278% rose 11 basis points to 0.16%, while the euro EURUSD, 0.29% rallied 0.6% to $1.0924.
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LITECOIN: PRICE READY TO GROW IN BULLISH CHANNEL | LONG Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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AUD/CAD: REVERSAL PATTERN H&SHOULDERS | LONG VIEW ⚡️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBP/USD:PRICE READY TO GROW | LONG SETUP ⚡️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD:PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS | PRICE READY TO GROW ! LONGHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBPUSD: gives it another go to the upside | LONG IDEA 🔔GBPUSD gives it another go to the upside and above it's 100 hour MA
It is trying a break of the 100 hour MA again
The GBP/USD reached the lowest level since July 2020 last week at 1.2410 and moved higher on Friday. That move took the price above its 100 hour moving average for the first time since April 22.
However momentum could not be sustained,and yesterday saw the price action above and below the 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 1.2525) as traders ponder the next move (it was a UK). The New York session saw a move lower with the price closing comfortably below the moving average level at 1.24904 on overall dollar buying (the US dollar was the strongest of the major currencies yesterday).
In trading today, the pair based against a swing area between 1.24905 and 1.25022 before moving up over the last hour or two of trading to a new session high – and back above the 100 hour moving average.
I know there been a number of failed breaks of that moving average over the last 3 , trading days but traders must still respected as a risk defining level. Stay above would be more bullish. Move below is more bearish.
Like the EURUSD, there is more to prove from the buyers if they are to take more control from the sellers.
Getting above the 1.2601 to 1.26145 swing area is a step number one. Step number two and step three involve getting above the 200 hour moving average at 1.2666 currently (green line in the chart above) , followed by the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April 21 high at 1.26698.
Those upside targets are the minimum to get to and through if the buyers are to take more control from the sellers.
For now, respect the 100 hour moving average as risk once again, and hope for increased upside momentum off of that level.
AUD/CHF:BEARISH SETUP | PRICE WILL DROP | SHORT ⚡️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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USD/CAD:TOP RESISTANCE | PRICE WILL DROP | SHORT SETUP ⚡️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GOLD:PRICE IS FALLING | BEARISH CHANNEL | NEW LONG TRIGGERHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD:REVERSAL COMING | NEW LONG SETUP | LONG 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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Trading Idea - #STABILUSMy trading idea for STABILUS SE - long/buy
Target: 60.00 EUR
Stop: 37.00 EUR
Company profile on STABILUS SE: Stabilus S.A. is a manufacturer of gas springs and hydraulic dampers based in Luxembourg. The company was founded in 1934 and employs over 4,000 people at nine production sites worldwide. Stabilus' best-known product is the Lift-O-Mat. This is used for the most part in tailgates and engine hoods of passenger cars, but also in medical and rehabilitation technology and in maritime applications. Gas springs or dampers from Stabilus are also used in swivel chairs and other furniture.
JPMorgan as a driver of Stabilus. It is not unusual for major investment houses to influence the share price of individual companies with their forecasts and analyses. On January 05, 2022, Stabilus was downgraded by JPMorgen. The earnings expectations were significantly below expectations. Consequently, the share price slid by almost 40%. Almost half a year later, the tide turns. Stabilus exceeds profit expectations and JPMorgan analysts rate the share price higher with a target of EUR 62.00.
After strong sales growth in Q2 - 2022, the company has set the corporate target far high, possibly without the calculation of rising prices for raw materials, which can only be partially passed on to customers. Nevertheless, the company is well positioned as strong automotive business in Asia powers Stabilus.
Sales Q2- 2022: With 15% more than last year, the Group achieved record quarterly sales of approximately 281 million euros. In the company's history, this is the highest revenue so far.
Looking at the chart, the share price has successfully bounced off the EUR 40 .00 support line.
Overall, there should be more bullishness for Stabilus.
USD/CAD:RESISTANCE AREA | PRICE MAY REVERSE | SHORT IDEA 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD:NEWS OUTLOOK + NEXT TARGETS | LONG SETUP 🔔EUR/USD, US DOLLAR ANALYSIS AND NEWS:
Hot Core Inflation Keeps a July Hike in Play
Month End Flows Unwinding as Euro Recovers
EU DATA RECAP: VERY STRONG CORE INFLATION
Euro Zone flash estimate of inflation rose 7.5% Y/Y, matching consensus. However, the core figure printed notably above expectations at 3.5% compared to the 3.2% expected. As such, this will further fuel expectations that the ECB will begin to raise interest rates from July, where current market pricing is near fully priced in for lift-off. Meanwhile, Euro Zone Q1 GDP came in line at 5% Y/Y with a slightly softer than expected quarterly figure 0.2% vs 0.3% expected. That said, this is unlikely to deter the ECB from stepping up its plan to normalise monetary policy.
Market reaction to the data has been muted given that the figures are unlikely to notably move the needle for the near term outlook for ECB policy. Keep in mind that the bigger focus has been on Fed policy with markets positioning themselves ahead of next week’s meeting.
MODEST USD RETRACEMENT AS MONTH END FLOWS FIZZLE
Elsewhere, as we approach the turn of the month, market participants look to be using this as an opportunity to fade the recent aggressive moves in the US Dollar. A reminder that in months where the US equities (SPX) fall at least 3% or more, the US Dollar tends to rise into month end before retracing the move in the first week of the new month. This is shown in the graph below. That being said, while most can agree that the USD is overbought, the issue has been the lack of alternatives with the greenback’s major counterpart (EUR) offer little to no reasons to be bullish. However, the currency I would watch is the Chinese Yuan, where a turnaround could suggest a possible USD peak.
EXPLAINER OF FX MONTH END REBALANCING
London WMR Fix (1600 London Time): The WMR Fix is one of the most widely used benchmarks for FX trading, taking place every day within a 5-minute window around 1600 London time. The fix provides a standard set of currency benchmark rates so that equity and bond investors can compare portfolio valuations and performance with each other.
The WMR fix tends to coincide with a sharp rise in trading volume, prompting a sizeable increase in liquidity. Occasionally, this allows for large real money flows to take place without causing too many distortions. However, flows can also be dominant in one direction (strong buying or strong selling) leading to outsized moves in a very short period of time.
The largest bout of volatility stems from the month-end fix, taking place on the last business day, where market extreme moves can often occur in the lead up during 15:00-16:00 London Time. These FX flows are derived from mostly equity rebalancing.
As such, if a UK portfolio manager holds US Dollar-denominated assets and seeks to hedge FX risk, then a monthly rise in the value of those assets will lead to more dollar hedging (selling the dollar). For example, if equities are FX hedged and US stocks (S&P 500) have risen on the month, while the FTSE 100 (UK stock market) has traded flat, then UK based investors would sell US Dollars against the Pound to add to their hedge, leading to an appreciation in GBP/USD. The greater the outperformance of US equity market over the UK would be associated with greater selling of the USD against GBP, prompting GBP to rise even higher. Although, extreme moves can often partially revert in the day following the month-end fix. That said, the occurrence of such event in a market as liquid as FX, suggests that the London fix (month-end fix in particular) is important for FX traders to watch for.
USD/JPY:REVERSAL ON BULLISH CHANNEL | PRICE READY TO DROP!Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GOLD : PRICE REBOUND ON SUPPORT AREA | READY TO GROW !Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBP/NZD:UPTREND BULLISH CHANNEL | PRICE IS GROWING | LONG Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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AUD/CHF : RETEST PREVIOUS AREA | SHORT SETUP | SHORT ⭐️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/JPY:UPTREND PRICE ACTION LONG SCENARIO | LONG Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/CAD:PRICE ACTION | PRICE IS FALLING AFTER TOP/DIV. SHORTHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD:TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | REVESAL ON DIVERGENCE | LONG ⭐️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTAL+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | REVERSAL| LONG 🔔 EUR/USD drops to fresh 5-year lows in the sub-1.0600 area
EUR/USD extends the leg lower to the area below 1.0600.
The greenback trades in cycle peaks, US yields regain composure.
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence deteriorated in May.
Sellers remain well in control of the sentiment around the single currency and drag EUR/USD to the 1.0590/85 band, or new 5-year lows, on Wednesday.
EUR/USD weaker on USD-strength, geopolitics
EUR/USD loses ground for the fifth session in a row midweek amidst the continuation of the strong march north in the dollar and persistent geopolitical concerns, particularly around the potential EU embargo on Russian oil.
In the German debt markets, the 10y bund yields hover around 0.80% amidst the renewed multi-session weakness, whereas US yields regain some upside traction following the recent corrective leg.
In the domestic calendar, Germany Consumer Confidence tracked by GfK worsened to -26.5 for the month of May. Later on Wednesday, ECB’s Lagarde is also due to speak.
In the US docket, weekly Mortgage Applications come in the first turn seconded by Trade Balance figures and Pending Home Sales.
What to look for around EUR
EUR/USD’s price action shows further deterioration and revisits the sub-1.0600 area for the first time since April 2017. The outlook for the pair still remains tilted towards the bearish side, always in response to dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence. Occasional pockets of strength in the single currency, in the meantime, should appear reinforced by speculation the ECB could raise rates at some point around June/July, while higher German yields, elevated inflation and a decent pace of the economic recovery in the region are also supportive of an improvement in the mood around the euro.
Key events in the euro area this week: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Wednesday) – ECB 2021 Annual Report, Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment, Germany Flash Inflation Rate (Thursday) – Germany, EMU Flash Q1 GDP Growth Rate, EMU Flash Inflation Rate (Friday).
Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro area. Speculation of ECB tightening/tapering later in the year. Second round of the presidential elections in France (April 24). Impact on the region’s economic growth prospects of the war in Ukraine.
GOLD:PRICE ACTION ON DEMAND AREA | DIVERGENCE | PRICE WILL GROW!Gold: Consolidation at the current level or a move below the $1890 support level?
Looking at XAUUSD Chart, we can see it was trading relatively steadily in the $1950 range at the on the 21st of April, until the breakdown from its support level of $1932 on the 23rd of April, falling well into the $1900 range and finding new support at the $1890. It was last found trading at the $1897 range just above the $1890 closest support level and has the closest temporary overhead resistance around the $1910 level.
Today we can expect consolidation at the current level or move below the $1890 support level.
However, if it manages to hold above the current level, then a move towards the $1910 the closest resistance level of $1910 can be expected.
ETH/BTC : PRICE READY TO GROW AFTER REBOUND | LONG SETUP Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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