GBP/USD Forecast: Technicals reveal lack of recovery momentum GBP/USD has struggled to extend rebound beyond 1.3050.
Risk-averse market environment caps the pair's upside on Tuesday.
Sellers could take action in case pound drops below 1.3000.
GBP/USD has staged a rebound after having tested 1.3000 support but has struggled to preserve its bullish momentum. The pair clings to modest daily gains below 1.3050 in the early European session but the negative shift witnessed in market mood is making it difficult for the British pound to continue to gather strength against the greenback.
Late Monday, the Ukrainian presidential adviser said that they were hoping to reach a peace deal with Russia by May at the latest. Although this development revived hopes for a de-escalation of the conflict, the adviser noted early Tuesday that there would either be an agreement or Russia would "go on the offensive."
Additionally, newly imposed lockdowns in China due to the surging number of coronavirus cases revived fears over supply chain bottlenecks, further weighing on the market mood. Reflecting the risk-averse atmosphere, the UK's FTSE 100 Index is losing more than 1% on Tuesday and the S&P Futures are down 0.5%.
On the flip side, the greenback stays on the back foot amid falling US Treasury bond yields and helps GBP/USD stay afloat in positive territory.
Earlier in the day, the data from the UK showed that ILO Unemployment Rate declined to 3.9% in three months to January from 4.1% but this print failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction.
The US economic docket will feature February Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday. Nevertheless, the risk perception is likely to continue to impact the pair's action in the near term.
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AUD/CHF:DOUBLE TOP PATTERN | PRICE MAY FALL !Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBP/JPY:HARMONIC TRADING | REVERSAL COMING SOON | SHORTHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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NZD/USD:PRICE ACTION | PRICE MAY FALL | SHORT PREDICTIONHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBP/AUD : DOWNTREND | PRICE IS SIDEWAYS AREA | FALL SETUPHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD: DOWNTREND | PRICE ACTION | SHORT SETUP 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GOLD: UPDATE FORECAST SHORT | PRICE IS FALL LIKE PREDICTED...Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GOLD: FUNDAMENTAL INFOs + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT SETUP 🔔Gold price is deep in the red amid risk-on mood, rallying US Treasury yields.
Russia-Ukraine updates will continue to dictate risk sentiment, dollar trades.
Gold Price appears vulnerable below $1,994, focus on yields, Ukraine updates.
Gold price is facing a double whammy from an improved market mood on hopes for diplomacy on the Ukraine crisis. While the expected 25 bps Fed rate hike this week is keeping the US Treasury yields on a stronger footing, The risk-on flows seem to be weighing down the US dollar, which cushions the downside in gold price. Looking ahead, the Russia-Ukraine war-related updates and risk sentiment will lead the way, in absence of first-tier economic data. Also, the US-Sino high-level talks to discuss Ukraine will be also closely followed.
GBP/USD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOS + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | SHORT VIEWGBP/USD Forecast: Bears could pause on hopes for diplomacy in Ukraine, ahead of BoE/FOMC
GBP/USD dropped to a fresh 16-month low during the Asian session on the first day of a new week.
The Russia-Ukraine war underpinned the safe-haven USD and exerted some downward pressure.
Slightly oversold conditions warrant some caution for bears ahead of the BoE and FOMC meetings.
The GBP/USD pair prolonged its recent bearish trajectory and kicked off the new week on a downbeat note. This marked the third successive day of a negative move - also the seventh in the previous eight - and dragged spot prices to 1.3000 neighbourhood, or the lowest level since November 2020 during the Asian session. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, so far, has shown no signs of easing. In fact, a barrage of Russian missiles hit a large Ukrainian base near the border with NATO member Poland on Sunday. This continued underpinning the US dollar's status as the global reserve currency and was seen as a key factor that exerted downward pressure on the major.
The greenback also drew support from an extension of a strong move up in the US Treasury bond yields. The recent monster gains in commodity prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been fueling concerns about a major inflationary shock. This, in turn, reinforced bets for an imminent start of the policy tightening cycle in March and acted as a tailwind for the US bond yields. Hence, the market focus now shifts to the upcoming two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, starting this Tuesday, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics. In the meantime, signs of stability in the financial markets might cap gains for the buck.
Russia and Ukraine gave their most upbeat assessments after weekend negotiations. In fact, Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak said that Russia is already beginning to talk constructively and that we will achieve some results in a matter of days. Moreover, a Russian delegate to the talks, Leonid Slutsky noted that they had made significant progress and it was possible the delegations could soon reach draft agreements. The incoming positive headlines fueled the latest optimism, which was evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets and dented demand for traditional safe-haven assets. This, however, did little to lend any support to the pair.
Even expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates at its meeting later this week failed to impress bullish traders or ease the bearish pressure surrounding the major. The market bets were reaffirmed by Friday's mostly upbeat UK macro releases, showing that the economy bounced back sharply and expanded by 0.8% in January. Adding to this, the UK industrial output rose 0.7% MoM in January, driven by the 0.8% growth in manufacturing production. Furthermore, services sector output increased by 0.8% during the reported month as against a 0.5% fall recorded in December. This, in turn, suggest that the BoE rate hike is fully priced in the markets.
Nevertheless, traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets heading into the key central bank event risks. In the meantime, fresh developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga will be looked upon for some meaningful trading opportunities amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases on Monday.
EUR/USD : FUNDAMENTAL NEWS + PRICE ACTION FORECAST | SHORT SETUPEUR/USD takes a respite at the edge of 1.08 the figure, traders are watching oil prices.
EUR/USD now depends on where the price of oil goes next.
The Fed and ECB divergence is priced in but the ECB will be a key event this week.
EUR/USD is down some 0.45% on the day but the euro is attempting to recover in an accumulation of the latest daily bearish sell-off. EUR/USD positioning inched higher in the week ending 1 March, despite mounting pressure on European currencies on the back of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, a long squeeze of those positions would be expected in the next report, underlying the potential longevity of weakness in the euro for the foreseeable future.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and questions about Europe’s energy security will be a key theme for the European Central Bank this week as the war in Ukraine has made the economic outlook for the eurozone extremely uncertain. No changes are to be expected at the meeting, although some would have expected them a few weeks ago.
The economic implications for the eurozone due to the war will require the ECB to maintain maximum flexibility for its road to normalisation. There may be mention that should everything goes well, net asset purchases can still end in the third quarter. With that being said, there is no telling what the road ahead will be like in what is a very fluid situation. The divergence between the ECB and Federal Reserve is favouring the greenback which leaves 1.0800 vulnerable.
The week is absent of Fed speakers due to the media embargo ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, but the market is fully priced for a 25 bp hike on March 16 as the start of the tightening cycle. ''Looking ahead, 150 bp of tightening is priced in over the next 12 months, followed by another 25 bp in the following 12 months that would see the Fed Funds rate peak near 1.75%,'' analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said.
''We continue to believe that the terminal rate will have to be much higher than this, but the Ukraine crisis has pushed Fed tightening expectations lower. January consumer credit is the only US data report today and is expected at $24.5 bln vs. $18.9 bln in December.''
Euro traders are glued to the price of oil
Meanwhile, markets are fixated on the price of oil which is a driver for risk in the forex space and the euro has been suffering for it given the eurozone dependency on Russian oil, coal & gas. However, the EU has agreed to phase out dependency on Russian energy according to an EU draft statement from a summit. The Biden administration is also willing to move ahead with a ban on Russian oil imports into the United States even without the participation of allies in Europe. US oil is currently trading at $120bbls.
The consensus is that the higher prices pose less threat to the Us than it does to the Eurozone. While Russian crude represents only 3% of domestic energy imports, for Europe, Russia is a key provider. Russia provides 25% of the EU's crude and 40% of its natural gas.
Just a few moments before Ethereum sell-off. Guys, alert on Ethereum price! Price entered Critical zone, the movement can be insanely huge. If you like my graphics, please use Like button 💙💛
Guys, I have strong feeling of Deja Vu... Price of Ethereum at similar triangle to the Bitcoin 2020 sell-off case, the proof of the chart I've attached to the main graph, please compare it.
What kind of the move we can expect?
Possible move towards $2000 at first part , then move down to $1600 and final or semi-final to $1000 because traders and investors like round numbers. This might be not the bottom , but we going to see and I will try to make update on the way.
Stay safe
💙💛 Praying for Ukraine
GOLD:HEAD & SHOULDERS | SHORT SETUP ⚡️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBP/USD : DOWNTREND | BEARISH CHANNEL | NEW SHORT SETUPHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD :DOWNTREND | BEARISH SCENARIO - SHORT TRIGGER 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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Russell 2000: FUNDAMENTAL + NEWS INFOs | LONG SETUPRUSSELL 2000 FORECAST:
The Russell 2000 tumbles as U.S. inflation rises at the fastest pace since 1982
Lack of progress in peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine also weighs on sentiment, accelerating the sell-off on Wall Street
The Russell 2000 near-term outlook remains bearish from a technical perspective
The Russell 2000 fell Thursday in midday trading, sinking about 1.3% to 1,990, weighed down by risk-averse mood due to rising geopolitical tensions and rampant inflation in the United States. Investor sentiment improved briefly yesterday on expectations that the crisis between Russia and Ukraine could begin to de-escalate soon, but the winds shifted again today after high-level talks between the two countries' foreign ministers failed to produce any progress towards a ceasefire.
To make matters worse, U.S. CPI continued to accelerate and reached 7.9% year-on-year in February, its highest level since 1982, driven by rising fuel, food and housing costs.The commodity market price shock of the past few days did not influence data for this period, so we can effectively say that inflation has not yet peaked, and that much higher readings are likely in the coming months.
Mounting price pressures will lead the Fed to raise interest rates multiple times in 2022, starting at next week's meeting, although the hiking cycle may be less aggressive than anticipated earlier in the year amid extraordinary uncertainty stemming from the military conflict in Eastern Europe. In any case, the direction of travel is toward less accommodation and tighter financial conditions over the forecast horizon.
The transition to a more restrictive monetary policy environment, coupled with weakening activity, runaway inflation, and the war in Ukraine, will ensure that volatility remains elevated for the foreseeable future, complicating the equity market recovery, particularly for cyclically oriented companies that are highly dependent on healthy GDP growth. This leaves the economically sensitive Russell 2000 in a precarious situation and vulnerable to near-term weakness.
JP225 NIKKEI : FUNDAMENTAL + LONG FORECAST | PRICE WILL GROW.Japan’s Nikkei jumps about 4% following oil drop; Nio sees gains fizzle in Hong Kong debut Shares in Asia-Pacific jumped on Thursday, following an overnight bounce on Wall Street after oil prices fell sharply from a recent surge.
International benchmark Brent crude and U.S. crude futures tumbled more than 10% overnight on Wednesday.
Oil prices however recovered from some of those losses in the afternoon of Asia trading hours on Thursday, with international benchmark Brent crude futures up 4.1% to $115.70 per barrel. U.S. crude futures climbed 2.92% to $111.87 per barrel.
Asia markets responded on Thursday to the overnight declines in oil prices. China, India, Japan and South Korea are all major importers of oil, according to 2020 data from the International Energy Agency.
The Nikkei 225 in Japan led gains among the region’s major markets as it jumped 3.94% to close at 25,690.40 while the Topix index climbed 4.04% to 1,830.03.
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closed 1.27% higher at 20,890.26. Shares of Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio started trading in Hong Kong on Thursday, in what is the firm’s secondary listing. The shares initially jumped but later erased most of those gains, finishing its debut day 0.82% above its issue price.
Mainland Chinese stocks closed in positive territory, with the Shanghai composite gaining 1.22% to 3,296.09 while the Shenzhen component surged 2.179% to 12,370.95.
South Korea’s Kospi also gained 2.21% on the day to 2,680.32, with markets returning to trade from Wednesday’s presidential election which saw conservative opposition candidate Yoon Suk-yeol emerging victorious.
In India, the Nifty 50 jumped 1.47% while the BSE Sensex advanced 1.53%, as of 1:47 p.m. local time.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.1% to close at 7,130.80. Shares of major miner Rio Tinto, however, plunged 7.73%. The firm told CNBC on Thursday that it is “in the process of terminating all commercial relationships it has with any Russian business.”
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1.84%.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its peers, was at 98.124 after a recent decline from around 99.
The Japanese yen traded at 115.90 per dollar, weaker than levels below 115.2 seen against the greenback earlier this week. The Australian dollar was at $0.7339, still off lows below $0.726 seen earlier in the week.
AUS200 : FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + LONG FORECAST | LONG SETUPAustralia stocks were higher after the close on Thursday, as gains in the IT, Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors led shares higher.
At the close in Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.10%.
The best performers of the session on the S&P/ASX 200 were Flight Centre Ltd (ASX:FLT), which rose 6.61% or 1.17 points to trade at 18.87 at the close. Meanwhile, Webjet Ltd (ASX:WEB) added 5.83% or 0.31 points to end at 5.63 and Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX:QAN) was up 5.79% or 0.27 points to 4.93 in late trade.
The worst performers of the session were Nickel Mines Ltd (ASX:NIC), which fell 13.17% or 0.19 points to trade at 1.22 at the close. Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX:RIO) declined 7.73% or 9.27 points to end at 110.61 and Beach Energy Ltd (ASX:BPT) was down 5.90% or 0.10 points to 1.60.
Rising stocks outnumbered declining ones on the Sydney Stock Exchange by 857 to 547 and 380 ended unchanged.
The S&P/ASX 200 VIX, which measures the implied volatility of S&P/ASX 200 options, was up 1.91% to 17.12.
Gold Futures for April delivery was down 0.14% or 2.70 to $1,985.50 a troy ounce. Elsewhere in commodities trading, Crude oil for delivery in April rose 2.37% or 2.58 to hit $111.28 a barrel, while the May Brent oil contract rose 3.51% or 3.90 to trade at $115.04 a barrel.
XAU/USD remains on the defensive below $2,000, LONG view ⚡️Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD remains on the defensive below $2,000, downside seems limited
Gold oscillated in a narrow trading band through the early European session on Friday.
Stability in the financial markets, stronger USD acted as a headwind for the commodity.
The Ukraine crisis extended support to the safe-haven metal and limited the downside.
Gold struggled to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the $1,970 area and witnessed subdued/range-bound price move on the last day of the week. The XAU/USD seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session and was last seen trading below the $2,000 psychological mark. Despite the fact that talks between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers broke down without any notable progress, investors remain hopeful about a diplomatic solution to end the war. Russia appears to have softened its stance and said that the war could stop in a moment if Ukraine agreed to a list of demands. This optimism was evident from signs of stability in the financial markets, which, in turn, acted as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal.
Apart from this, the underlying bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar further weighed on the dollar-denominated XAU/USD. Following a sharp pullback from the highest level since May 2020 touched earlier this week, the USD made a solid comeback on Thursday following the release of strong US consumer inflation figures. In fact, the headline CPI accelerated to a new 40-year high in February and reinforced bets for an imminent start of the policy tightening cycle by the Fed in March. This, in turn, remained supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which continued underpinning the buck. That said, the risk of a further escalation in tensions between Russia and the West extended some support to gold.
In fact, Russia approved a list of goods and equipment that will be prohibited from being exported in retaliation to the Western sanctions imposed over its military operations in Ukraine. Furthermore, US President Joe Biden is set to call for an end of normal trade relations with Russia later this Friday, alongside the Group of Seven nations and European Union leaders. Apart from this, the rapidly deteriorating global economic outlook and worries about a major inflationary shock should limit deeper losses for gold. This warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the corrective pullback from the highest level since August 2020.
UK GDP Beats Expectations,GBP/USD Refuses to Move Higher SHORT🔔The latest UK GDP figures showed that the economy grew at a better-than-expected rate of 0.8% in January, after falling by 0.2% in December and is now 0.8% above its pre-coronavirus level in February 2020. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) release, all sectors grew in January 2022, with services up 0.8%, production up 0.7%, and construction up by 1.1%.
Sterling, despite the latest good economic news, continues to slide lower, especially against the US dollar, and is back below 1.3100 and at its lowest level since November 2020. Fears that the crisis in Ukraine will take its toll on UK growth and that inflation is set to rise further have weighed on Sterling. Next week the Bank of England is expected to hike interest rates by a further 25 basis points – with a 50bp hike an outside bet – and the language that the MPC uses when delivering their policy decision, and the voter makeup may underpin the British Pound.
Retail trader data show 74.73% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.96 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.80% higher than yesterday and 29.20% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.17% higher than yesterday and 30.85% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
EUR/USD:PRICE CONTINUE TO FALL LIKE PREDICTED|SHORT CONTINUATIONAs expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept the interest rate unchanged on Thursday and announced the potential end of QE by the third quarter. Analysts at Wells Fargo still believe the ECB is on pace to lift its Deposit Rate 25 bps at its December meeting. They see some weakness ahead for the euro relative to the dollar.
Key Quotes:
“We had expected the ECB to announce an accelerated tapering at today's announcement, although the wind down of its bond purchases was more aggressive than we had expected. Altogether, today's decision leaves our ECB monetary policy outlook very much on course. We expect the ECB to end its asset purchases during or by the end of Q3, something ECB President Lagarde indicated in the post-meeting press conference. And the contours of the ECB's monetary policy approach leaves the central bank on course, in our view, to deliver an initial 25 bps Deposit Rate hike at its December 2022 monetary policy meeting. After an initial spike higher, the euro has reversed course and is now weaker against the U.S. dollar.”
“As far as our views on the euro going forward, we expect a more gradual pace of ECB policy adjustment relative to the Fed, which should place depreciation pressure on the euro over the medium-term. In addition, we continue to believe financial markets are moderately 'over-priced' with respect to ECB tightening, and as markets adjust to a more gradual pace of ECB tightening, that should also contribute to euro weakness.”
NZD/USD:UPTREND | BULLISH CHANNEL | PRICE IS GROWING AGAINHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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GBP/AUD:PRICE ACTION | WAITING NEW BULLISH IMPULSE 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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