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GBP/USD:DIVERGENCE IN H8 - PRICE MAY GROW NOW 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
Long
by DAY_PROFITS
EUR/USD:PRICE IS GROWING LIKE PREDICTED | LONG SETUP⚡️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
by DAY_PROFITS
1
Trading Idea - #Paypal - waiting for the support level! #PAYPAL BUY, but needs some time to ripe! Patience necessary! See the most credible scenarios for a LONG entry. I am waiting for a support level test, since the current downtrend ist fully intact and also gained momentum. Major support levels are: Scenario A: 174.00 USD Scenario B: 140.00 USD Due to recent huge insider sell offs, I find it not realistically, that we get above 220.00 USD in the near future!
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by Traderherz-Analytics
Time for NZD/JPY to shine? Harmonic Reversal Idea | SHORTThe New Zealand dollar has seen a period of strength since the last RBNZ meeting. In that meeting the RBNZ board made an even more hawkish shift seeing the potential need for further interest rate hikes and raised the terminal rate to over 3.00%. This should keep the NZD supported over the medium term. The Japanese Yen has three reasons for weakness at the moment. Low Japanese inflation is unlikely to worry the BoJ, high oil prices pressure the net energy importing Japanese economy, and the BoJ’s monetary policy is keeping 10-year yields pinned in the +0.25% and -0.25% band. The NZDJPY pair has a strong seasonal pattern right now. Over the last 22 years, it has gained 16 times for an average 1.79% return. The largest gain was a huge 13.72% in 2009 and the biggest loss was -4.41% in 2017. Will the NZDJPY pair show strength again this year? Major Trade Risks: The main risk here is that risk-off trading on geopolitical concerns over the Russian/Ukraine crisis results in further risk-off selling.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/JPY:DOWNTREND | FUNDAMENTAL+PRICE ACTION | SHORT SETUP 🔔EUR/JPY extends monthly resistance break above 128.00 ahead of ECB EUR/JPY challenges the one-month-old downtrend around weekly high, sidelined of late. Euro bulls expected ECB to utter plans to battle stagflation fears even as monetary policy isn’t expected to change. Nikkei 225 posts biggest jump in 19 months amid hopes of overcoming Russia-Ukraine crisis. ECB, Kyiv-Moscow talks join US CPI for February to entertain momentum traders. EUR/JPY grinds higher around weekly top, up 0.11% intraday near 128.35 heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair rises for the third consecutive day while keeping the previous day’s upside break of a one-month-old descending resistance line, now support. Also underpinning the bullish bias is the market’s cautious optimism over the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, as well as hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will sound hawkish alarms even if the benchmark rate and bond purchases are likely to remain unchanged. Risk appetite improved as Ukraine’s retreat from NATO joined readiness to compromise on certain goals, if Russia does the same hinted an immediate solution to the grim conditions in Kyiv. Though, Moscow’s rejection to concede anything joins the West versus Moscow tussles, via Kyiv, to weigh on the mood of late. Even so, a stellar rally by Japan’s Nikkei 225, the biggest daily jump since June 2020, joins easy US Treasury yields to weigh on the yen’s safe-haven demand. Elsewhere, stock futures in the US and Europe fail to track Wall Street gain amid anxiety over the key issues. That said, diplomats from Ukraine and Russia will meet in Turkey on Thursday. Given the recently increasing hopes of a diplomatic solution, a disappointment will have higher chances of roiling the EUR/JPY uptrend. Also, the ECB is likely to utter hawkish words as it battles fears of stagflation, which in turn highlights the monetary policy decision despite the unexpected change in the key measures. It should be noted that the monthly prints of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, likely rising to 7.9% from 7.5% prior, will also act as an important catalyst. All in all, Thursday is set to become another active day for the global markets, not just for EUR/JPY.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
GBP/USD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOS + TECHNICAL HARMONIC PATTERN ANALYSIS GBP/USD has lost its traction after testing 1.3200. Pound can capitalize on risk flows on de-escalation of Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sellers could take action in case GBP/USD fails to hold above 1.3160. Fueled by the improving market mood, GBP/USD has staged a decisive recovery toward 1.3200 early Thursday. With investors adopting a cautious stance while waiting for headlines from the meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers, however, the pair has lost its bullish momentum. The technical picture doesn't yet point to a bullish tilt in the near-term outlook but the British pound could gather strength in case risk flows start to dominate the markets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Velenskyy told the German newspaper Bild late Wednesday that the aim of Thursday's talks was to end the war. Zelenskyy further added that they were willing to make concessions but Russian news outlets noted that Russia would not concede anything at the negotiation table. Investors are yet to be convinced that there will be a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the recent market action reflects this view. The UK's FTSE 100 Index is already down 1% on the day and the US Dollar Index, which lost 1% on Wednesday, is up 0.3%. Later in the session, the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Annual CPI inflation is forecast to climb to a new multi-decade high of 7.9% from 7.5%. A stronger-than-expected CPI reading could provide an additional boost to the greenback but the pair's action is likely to be driven by the changes in risk perception. The dollar is likely to continue to outperform its rivals and drag GBP/USD lower in case Russia and Ukraine fail to make progress and vice versa.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
GOLD:FUNDAMENTAL INFOS+TECHNICAL SCENARIO | LONG SETUP 🔔Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to advance nicely fueled by heightened geopolitical risks and higher inflation – ANZ Gold has rallied to a 19-month high as the US move to ban Russian oil imports fuelled concerns over inflation and economic growth. Strategists at ANZ Bank expect the yellow metal to continue benefitting from the safe-haven demand. Russian sanctions are intensifying the stagflation risk “Investors are shifting towards gold as the Ukraine-Russia war worsens.” “With Russia being a major commodity producer, sanctions are intensifying the stagflation risk.” “We believe heightened geopolitical risks and higher inflation will support gold prices.”
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
4
EUR/USD Outlook: FUNDAMENTAL Infos+Technical Analysis SHORT 🔔Hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis lifted EUR/USD to the 1.1100 mark on Wednesday. Strong rally in the equity markets weighed heavily on the safe-haven USD and remained supportive. The overnight spike in the US bond yields limited the USD losses and capped the upside for the pair. Investors also seemed reluctant ahead of the ECB policy meeting and the US CPI report on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair witnessed an aggressive short-covering move on Wednesday and recorded its steepest daily rise in nearly six years amid hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the war in Ukraine. Turkey's top diplomat Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba have agreed to meet on Thursday. This would be the first potential talk between the two officials since Russian troops invaded Ukraine on February 24 and raised expectations that a compromise is possible, providing much-needed relief to investors. This, in turn, triggered a sharp rally in the equity markets, which drove flows away from the safe-haven US dollar and provided strong boost to the major. The pair rallied to the 1.1100 neighbourhood, though lacked follow-through buying and edged lower during the Asian session on Thursday. Investors remain concerned about the risk of a further escalation in tensions between Russia and the West. In fact, US President Joe Biden on Tuesday imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports. Britain matched the move and said that it would phase out the import of Russian oil by the end of 2022. The European Union (EU) also announced new sanctions against Russian individuals and Belarus banks. The Russian foreign ministry said that the response to the Western sanctions will be sensitive and precise. This, in turn, kept a lid on the latest optimism in the markets, at least for now. Apart from this, the overnight sharp spike in the US Treasury bond yields helped limit losses for the USD and further collaborated to cap gains for the major. The recent monster gains in commodity prices have been fueling worried of a major inflationary shock amid the rapidly deteriorating global economic outlook and acted as a tailwind for the US bond yields. Investors also seemed reluctant and preferred to wait for the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting later today. Given its geographical proximity, the European economy is anticipated to suffer the most from the spillover effects of the Ukraine crisis. This, however, might do little to force the ECB to change its hawkish stance amid the record-high consumer inflation. Later during the early North American session, traders will take cues from the US CPI report. This, along with the broader market risk sentiment and the US bond yields, will influence the USD price dynamics. That said, the focus will remain on the incoming geopolitical headlines and developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga. Nevertheless, the stage seems all set for yet another day of volatile price moves for the pair.
Short
by FOREXN1
4
GOLD Forecast: XAU/USD | Corrective Scenario Pullback | SHORT ⭐️Modest recovery in the risk sentiment prompted some profit-taking around gold on Wednesday. The worsening situation in Ukraine, stagflation fears should limit any meaningful corrective slide. Softer USD/US bond yields should further lend some support to the dollar-denominated metal. Gold edged lower through the early European session on Wednesday and was last seen hovering near the lower boundary of its intraday trading range, just below the $2,040 level. A goodish recovery in the equity markets turned out to be a key factor that prompted some profit-taking around the safe-haven XAU/USD. The risk sentiment stabilized a bit amid hopes for a positive outcome from the meeting between Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers in Turkey on Thursday. The optimism, however, is likely to remain capped amid the risk of a further escalation in the tensions between Russian and Western powers. In fact, US President Joe Biden on Tuesday imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports. The move was matched by Britain, announcing that it would phase out the import of Russian oil by the end of 2022. The Russian foreign ministry reportedly said on Wednesday that the response to the Western sanctions will be sensitive and precise. This, along with the recent monster gains in commodity prices that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, fueled fears about a major inflationary shock in the global economy. This should further act as a tailwind for gold, which has a proven historical ability to act as a hedge against inflation. Apart from this, modest US dollar weakness and softer US Treasury bond yields could also lend some support to the dollar-denominated gold. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the XAU/USD has topped out and positioning for any meaningful corrective pullback. Nevertheless, the metal, for now, seems to have snapped four successive days of the winning streak to the highest level since August 2020 and remains at the mercy of developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
EUR/JPY: DIVERGENCE AND PRICE READY TO GROW | LONG SETUPHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
Long
by DAY_PROFITS
GBP/USD: BEARISH SCENARIO CONTINUATION | SHORT SETUP🔔The GBPUSD had moved into a support area between 1.3133 to 1.31865 area earlier today. The low of the swing area would increase the bearish bias, and that is what happened. The pair has moved down to a low near the 1.3100. The low price reached 1.3101 so far. A move below the natural support at 1.3100 would increase the bearish bias even more, and open up the downside for more probing.. Now that the swing area has been broken, sellers will now use it to lean against. That is, stay below 1.3186 is a risk defining level. Stay below keeps the sellers more control on the daily chart. A closer resistance target would be the low of the swing area at 1.3133 along with the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 20, 2020 low. That level comes in at 1.3164. The most bearish scenario would be to stay below 1.3100.
Short
by DAY_PROFITS
1
USD/JPY:BULLISH CHANNEL | PRICE IS GROWING | LONG SETUP 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
Long
by DAY_PROFITS
EUR/USD: PRICE REACTED IN SUPPORT ZONE | LONG SETUP READY 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis ! Our strategy is based on Swing trading with price action Analysis and Advanced Fibos tools. Please support our page by hitting the LIKE 👍 button to this Idea and Follow us to get NEW ONE! Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. If you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Have a Good Take Day_Profits !
Long
by DAY_PROFITS
Bitcoin turned against the tide | LONG SCENARIO 🔔BTC is holding at $38K for the second day in a row, remaining 12% below the levels it reached a week earlier. Ethereum lost 1.3% over the past day, other leading altcoins from the top ten are moving in the range between +1% (BNB) to -4% (XRP). According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the crypto market decreased by 0.2% over the day, to $1.71 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index added 0.1% to 42.4%. The Fear and Greed Cryptocurrency Index lost 2 points to 21 in a day and remains in a state of “extreme fear”. Bitcoin has started this week with a drawdown along with a decline in all risky assets on reports of intensified hostilities in Ukraine. In the middle of the day, BTC managed to turn against the tide, winning back the initial failure, despite the decline in stock indices. US discussed the possibility of a ban on Russian oil imports, which could lead to a jump in energy prices and slow economic growth. Big players are piling up USDT during the decline of bitcoin in order to probably buy the first cryptocurrency at a lower price, according to Sentiment. Including, according to Whale Alert, a wallet with 407 BTC “woke up”, which has not been active since 2013. It may well expect big deals from him in the near future. One of the founders of Apple, Steve Wozniak, said that most crypto assets are robbery and fraud. However, he has always admired bitcoin and called it in 2020 a “unique mathematical marvel”, but specified that he wasn't planning to invest in BTC.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOREXN1
AUD/USD: Options market turns most bearish in three weeks 🔔One-month risk reversal (RR) of AUD/USD, a gauge of calls to puts, drops the most since February 14 on daily basis, per data source Reuters. That said, the spread between call and put options prints -0.287 level by the press time of early Tuesday morning in Europe. Not only the daily print but the fifth consecutive negative weekly print also portrays the market’s bearish bias over the AUD/USD. That said, the latest print of weekly RR is -0.175. Given the AUD/USD pair’s risk-barometer status, the escalation in the Ukraine- Russia tussles seems to favor the options bears. The pair’s latest performance also justifies the negative RR as AUD/USD renews intraday low around 0.7275 by the press time, down 0.50% on a day. That said, a speech from RBA Governor Philip Lowe, during late Tuesday, acts as a nearby catalyst for the pair traders to watch.
Short
by FOREXN1
EUR/USD: Next bearish targets aligns at 1.0750 and 1.0650 🔔EUR/USD fell back to its lowest levels on Monday since the first phase of the COVID-19 crisis in early 2020. As economists at MUFG Bank note, energy price shock keeps risks titled to downside. Gas prices surge higher in Europe “The price of natural gas in Europe has already surged higher by almost 200% since the Ukraine conflict started creating a significant headwind for growth in the eurozone. The weakening growth outlook for the eurozone economy is already reflected by the weaker euro.” “The next key support levels come in around 1.0750 and then 1.0650 with risks remaining titled to the downside for the pair.”
Short
by FOREXN1
💙💛 Bitcoin preparation for $30,000. March-April expectations.Hey guys! Its been long time since last update for tradingview:) If you like this chart, please use Like button 💙💛 In this hard time, all Ukrainians fighting for our freedom and peace🙏 Bitcoin price reached $45,000 price in early February. I have expected this move upside from $33,000 since December 2021 — here is the proof: Now we are working in sideways trend, which is pretty slow, but wide range $44,000 - $35,000 Now we need to verify this structure by hitting (D) and (E) sides of triangle. Target might be near $30,000 or even lower. Consider to use low risk p osition sizes in current market environment, it may safe your investment. Don't trade against short-mid-term trend, especially with leverage. Stay safe guys, and pray for peace in Ukraine
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ArShevelev
16
NZD/USD : HARMONICS ANALYSIS + FUNDAMENTALS | SHORT VIEWNZD/USD eyes to fill day-start gap to the south, posted the biggest weekly jump since October 2021. Markets sentiment remains sour as Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, US eyes banning oil & gas import from Moscow. Upbeat prices of commodities help Kiwi to battle firmer greenback, US jobs report came in upbeat for February. No major data/events on the calendar, geopolitical headlines to keep the driver’s seat. NZD/USD bulls poked January’s high during the five-week uptrend by the end of Friday, picking up bids to fill the week-start trading gap around 0.6850 amid early Monday morning in Asia. The Kiwi pair’s latest gains could be linked to the increasing price pressure and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish performance. On the contrary, the market’s rush to the US dollar, in search of risk-safety due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, tests the pair buyers. While observing major central banks, the Fed and the RBNZ are the only two that are clearer in their future moves and have more hawkish signals to spread than any other counterparts, which in turn keeps the NZD/USD bulls hopeful. On the same line are statements from the ANZ saying, “Although the most striking gains have been seen in oil, food commodity prices are following, and that’s seen both the NZD and AUD diverge from EUR and GBP, which have suffered in the face of apparent USD strength.” Elsewhere, the evacuation of Ukrainian civilians is jittery during the weekend as Russian forces kept marching towards Kyiv. Recently, the Moscow-led militaries blew an airport in central Ukraine while Friday’s threat over nuclear facilities was the biggest. The West tries to tame Moscow’s moves with more sanctions with the latest discussions on banning energy imports. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin remains determined to complete the “operation” and demands Ukraine’s complete surrender for peace. It’s worth noting that Friday’s upbeat US jobs report for February and comments favoring future rate increases by the Fed, from Chicago Fed President and FOMC member Charles Evans, added to the US dollar’s strength. Amid these plays, Wall Street closed in the red and the US 10-year Treasury yields also posted the biggest weekly loss since mid-2020. Looking forward, this week’s US inflation data will be crucial to watch amid a light calendar and silent period for the Fed speakers. Above all, headlines concerning Russia and Ukraine will be crucial.
by FOREXN1
2
S&P 500 Falls on Geopolitical Risks as Ukraine War Drags|Short🔔S&P 500 OUTLOOK: The S&P 500 falls amid elevated geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe Sentiment remains fragile on Wall Street as the crisis in Ukraine drags on for another day It was another wild day on Wall Street loaded with volatility amid rising tensions surrounding the tragic military conflict unfolding in Ukraine. Against this backdrop, U.S. stocks opened mostly in positive territory, but reversed sharply lower in the afternoon trade as the crisis in Eastern Europe dragged on for a seventh day unabated. In fact, President Putin appears to be doubling down on his war of aggression, rejecting the idea of ceasefire without demilitarization of Ukraine, a non-starter for the West. When it was all said and done, the S&P 500 tumbled 0.53% to 4,363, failing to build on the powerful rally from the previous session, a sign that geopolitics continues to constrain bullish sentiment and dominates price action. At this point, it is hard to predict how the situation will play out, but an escalation of the crisis could push oil prices even higher than they are today, exacerbating inflationary pressures and strengthening the case for aggressive monetary tightening at a time when the U.S. economy is already cooling. Obviously, this is a bad outcome for stocks. Aside from geopolitics, traders should also keep an eye on incoming macro data for clues on the health of the U.S. economy. On that note, tomorrow's NFP numbers will be of great importance. Investors expect the employment survey to show an addition of 400,000 jobs in February, but an upside surprise should not be ruled out following ADP's strong print. A robust result may ease Wall Street’s concerns about the slowdown, providing some respite for stocks and acting as a short-term bullish catalyst, provided we don’t start the session on risk-off mode.
UShort
by FOREXN1
5
XAU/USD risks a correction before next upswing kicks above $ 2KGold price has quickly pulled back from 19-month highs above the $2,000 mark. The Ukraine crisis intensifies as the West plans a ban on Russian oil imports. Overbought conditions on the 4H chart warrant cautious for gold bulls, uptrend still intact. Gold price has shot through the roof in a bid to retest the $2,000 level, extending its last week uptrend. Gold bulls appear unstoppable, as a flight to safety continues to remain the main market motor amid escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis. Russia’s resolve to invade Ukraine gets entrenched deeper at the start of a new week so does the West’s commitment to isolate Russia and stop the war. The US and its NATO allies are weighing in a ban on the Russian oil imports, aimed at crippling the latter’s economy and isolating it from the rest of the world. This has quickened the pace of the oil rally, as the prices of both the US and the UK oil reached the highest levels since 2008. The oil shock aggravated global recession fears, prompting investors to seek safety in the traditional safe-haven gold. Although investors remain cautious, given the extent of the gold price rally, as profit-taking could pick up pace on reports that the Russian military is said to hold fire and open humanitarian corridors in several Ukrainian cities at 0700 GMT on Monday, per Interfax. Further, the Western pressure on Russia could lead the latter to hold another round of ‘peace talks’, offering some temporary relief to gold bears. The hawkish Fed’s expectations, in the wake of the US Nonfarm Payrolls blowout, could also act as a trigger for the additional pullback in the bright metal. Meanwhile, the economic calendar remains sparse at the start of this week, leaving gold price at the mercy of the risk trends and the developments surrounding the Ukraine crisis. Gold price, however, could see an extension of the ongoing corrective downside, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the said time frame is trading well within the overbought territory, currently at 77.20. Further retracement in gold price will call for a test of the previous month’s high of $1,975, below which the $1,950 psychological barrier could come into play. The next relevant downside target is seen at the upward-sloping 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1,946. Should the buyers regain poise, then gold price could recapture the $2,000 threshold, above which the triangle pattern target will be on their radars.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
USD/JPY: Further losses seen below 114.40 | Short Setup 🔔Extra decline in USD/JPY is likely on a breakdown of the 114.40 region in the near term, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD dropped to 114.63 last Friday before rebounding to close at 114.78 (-0.59%). Despite the rebound, the risk appears to be tilted to the downside. That said, any USD weakness is expected to face solid support at 114.40. Resistance is at 115.05 followed by 115.25.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our view from last Thursday (03 Mar, spot at 115.55) where USD could rise to 115.90 was invalidated as USD dropped below our ‘strong support’ level at 115.00 (low of 114.63). Downward momentum is beginning to build but USD has to close below the major support at 114.40 before further weakness is likely (next support is at 114.00). The chance for USD to close below 114.40 is not high for now but would remain intact as long as USD does not move above 115.40 within these few days.”
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD:PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS+FUNDAMENTALS | PRICE MAY REBOUND🔔EUR/USD has dropped to its weakest level since May 2020 at 1.0820 at the start of the week but the pair has managed to stage a modest rebound heading into the European session. In the current market environment, however, the shared currency is unlikely to find enough demand to kick start an extended recovery against the greenback. Ukrainian authorities said over the weekend that civilians died in the suburb of Irpin when the Russian military ignored the ceasefire and hit an evacuation point. Meanwhile, the UK's Ministry of Defense said early Monday that Russia was probably targeting Ukraine's communications infrastructure to limit citizens' access to reliable news. Finally, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine noted in a statement that Russia was accumulating resources to attack Kyiv. There won't be any high-impact data releases in the economic docket on Monday and geopolitical headlines are likely to continue to dominate the market action. Since the beginning of the war, the greenback has preserved its safe-haven status with the US Dollar Index surging to its strongest level in 22 months near 99.00 on Monday. Sadly, the latest developments suggest that a de-escalation of the crisis is nowhere near in sight and EUR/USD should remain on the back foot with the dollar holding its ground. In addition to the risk aversion, renewed expectations for a dovish shift in the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy outlook also weigh on the euro. According to a recently conducted Reuters poll, the ECB is widely expected to wait until the last months of 2022 before hiking its policy rate. "Of the 33 of 45 respondents who expected the deposit rate to rise from a record low of -0.50% this year, 18 saw it at -0.25% at year-end, nine had it lower than that and six saw it higher, Reuters wrote.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
RUSSEL 2000: DOWNTREND | PRICE ACTION IN BEARISH CHANNEL| SHORT Bigger isn't always better. Case in point: Lots of trading desks are locked in on the dramatic underperformance of the small-cap Russell 2000 Index amid the bounce-back in broader stocks from the late January lows. The Russell 2000 — which is often viewed a proxy for the strength (or lack thereof) of the domestic economy — is down 10.5% this year compared to a 6% drop for the S&P 500 and 3.6% decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Russell 2000 has lagged the S&P 500 by 25 percentage points in the past 12 months, its worst 12-month relative return since 1999, notes Goldman Sachs' David Kostin. "Decelerating GDP growth has been one headwind to the cyclical small-cap index. During the last 20 years, small-caps have lagged on average in periods when the yield curve was flattening, economic growth was strong but decelerating, or financial conditions were tightening," Kostin says. Traders are now trying to determine whether the weakness in the Russell 2000 suggests another pullback in the markets is in the offing. After all, larger cap stocks are exposed to the same things (tightening financial conditions, higher interest rates, inflation, etc.) as smaller companies. "The small cap Russell 2000 has been a “canary in the coal mine” for stocks for much of the past year — first warning softly as small cap momentum peaked along with other areas of euphoric sentiment in 1Q21 even as large caps continued to rise, and then more urgently as its breakdown from a year long range led the broader market lower. As stocks bounce from their January slide, though, small caps have shown signs of sputtering below their prior support. Floors can often become resistant when broken, and with the Russell 2000’s recent track record as a leading indicator for broader market weakness, we will be watching the reaction to this level closely. Failure would suggest further correction in stocks lies ahead, while a break above could indicate stabilization," explains Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel. Of course, the Russell 2000 sucking wind could mean absolutely nothing to the S&P 500's next big move. No analysis is fool proof. Just file this under your "Things to Watch List," especially as the bulls begin to resurface and blow their normal smoke in your face. Now go forth and conquer in what will be another mentally draining week of corporate earnings. Happy trading!
UShort
by FOREXN1
3