USD/JPY: Further losses seen below 114.40 | Short Setup 🔔Extra decline in USD/JPY is likely on a breakdown of the 114.40 region in the near term, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group.
Key Quotes
24-hour view: “USD dropped to 114.63 last Friday before rebounding to close at 114.78 (-0.59%). Despite the rebound, the risk appears to be tilted to the downside. That said, any USD weakness is expected to face solid support at 114.40. Resistance is at 115.05 followed by 115.25.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “Our view from last Thursday (03 Mar, spot at 115.55) where USD could rise to 115.90 was invalidated as USD dropped below our ‘strong support’ level at 115.00 (low of 114.63). Downward momentum is beginning to build but USD has to close below the major support at 114.40 before further weakness is likely (next support is at 114.00). The chance for USD to close below 114.40 is not high for now but would remain intact as long as USD does not move above 115.40 within these few days.”
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EUR/USD:PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS+FUNDAMENTALS | PRICE MAY REBOUND🔔EUR/USD has dropped to its weakest level since May 2020 at 1.0820 at the start of the week but the pair has managed to stage a modest rebound heading into the European session. In the current market environment, however, the shared currency is unlikely to find enough demand to kick start an extended recovery against the greenback.
Ukrainian authorities said over the weekend that civilians died in the suburb of Irpin when the Russian military ignored the ceasefire and hit an evacuation point. Meanwhile, the UK's Ministry of Defense said early Monday that Russia was probably targeting Ukraine's communications infrastructure to limit citizens' access to reliable news. Finally, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine noted in a statement that Russia was accumulating resources to attack Kyiv.
There won't be any high-impact data releases in the economic docket on Monday and geopolitical headlines are likely to continue to dominate the market action.
Since the beginning of the war, the greenback has preserved its safe-haven status with the US Dollar Index surging to its strongest level in 22 months near 99.00 on Monday. Sadly, the latest developments suggest that a de-escalation of the crisis is nowhere near in sight and EUR/USD should remain on the back foot with the dollar holding its ground.
In addition to the risk aversion, renewed expectations for a dovish shift in the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy outlook also weigh on the euro. According to a recently conducted Reuters poll, the ECB is widely expected to wait until the last months of 2022 before hiking its policy rate. "Of the 33 of 45 respondents who expected the deposit rate to rise from a record low of -0.50% this year, 18 saw it at -0.25% at year-end, nine had it lower than that and six saw it higher, Reuters wrote.
RUSSEL 2000: DOWNTREND | PRICE ACTION IN BEARISH CHANNEL| SHORT Bigger isn't always better.
Case in point: Lots of trading desks are locked in on the dramatic underperformance of the small-cap Russell 2000 Index amid the bounce-back in broader stocks from the late January lows. The Russell 2000 — which is often viewed a proxy for the strength (or lack thereof) of the domestic economy — is down 10.5% this year compared to a 6% drop for the S&P 500 and 3.6% decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The Russell 2000 has lagged the S&P 500 by 25 percentage points in the past 12 months, its worst 12-month relative return since 1999, notes Goldman Sachs' David Kostin.
"Decelerating GDP growth has been one headwind to the cyclical small-cap index. During the last 20 years, small-caps have lagged on average in periods when the yield curve was flattening, economic growth was strong but decelerating, or financial conditions were tightening," Kostin says.
Traders are now trying to determine whether the weakness in the Russell 2000 suggests another pullback in the markets is in the offing. After all, larger cap stocks are exposed to the same things (tightening financial conditions, higher interest rates, inflation, etc.) as smaller companies.
"The small cap Russell 2000 has been a “canary in the coal mine” for stocks for much of the past year — first warning softly as small cap momentum peaked along with other areas of euphoric sentiment in 1Q21 even as large caps continued to rise, and then more urgently as its breakdown from a year long range led the broader market lower. As stocks bounce from their January slide, though, small caps have shown signs of sputtering below their prior support. Floors can often become resistant when broken, and with the Russell 2000’s recent track record as a leading indicator for broader market weakness, we will be watching the reaction to this level closely. Failure would suggest further correction in stocks lies ahead, while a break above could indicate stabilization," explains Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel.
Of course, the Russell 2000 sucking wind could mean absolutely nothing to the S&P 500's next big move. No analysis is fool proof. Just file this under your "Things to Watch List," especially as the bulls begin to resurface and blow their normal smoke in your face.
Now go forth and conquer in what will be another mentally draining week of corporate earnings. Happy trading!
NZD/USD:BULLISH TREND | PRICE STILL GROWING ! Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD:STRONG SUPPORT | PRICE MAY GROW 🔔Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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USD/CHF:BEARISH CHANNEL | PRICE WILL CONTINUE TO FALLING DOWNHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD:PRICE IS GROWING | TRIGGER SETUP FOR SHORT POSITIONHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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AUD/USD:NEW BULLISH IMPULSE READY ON CHANNEL | LONG Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/USD:POSSIBLE REVERSAL COMING | LONG SETUP⚡️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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NZD/JPY:BULLISH CHANNEL | PRICE IS READY TO GROW ! ⚡️Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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EUR/NZD:BULLISH CHANNEL | PRICE CAN GROW AFTER RETRACEMENTHello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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BTC/USD Forecast Fundamental Analysis | PRICE ACTION LONGThe cryptocurrency market continues its correction, with $500+ billion wiped off the market cap over the past week. As global financial markets extend their losses, driven by high inflation, central bank monetary tightening, ongoing supply chain bottlenecks from the Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical conflicts, smart money dumps risky assets led by Bitcoin and Ethereum. It ended comparisons of Bitcoin to gold, which rallied as global tensions rose, while Bitcoin led the crash in risk assets, down 50+% from its latest peak in November 2021.
Oil prices spiked to above $100 per barrel, fueling inflationary pressures and keeping downward momentum on risk assets. The 30,000 level is likely to attract price action in the BTC/USD, with a breakdown to the June 2021 lows just above 28,000 likely. A breakdown below support can accelerate the sell-off into 20,000, and traders should remain patient over the following few trading sessions. As institutional investors shore up cash, they sell non-important assets, where Bitcoin ranks number one.
Bitcoin has been under pressure for several months, and over the past two years, many cryptocurrencies outperformed Bitcoin, as they offer better value, faster transaction times, cheaper costs, and higher scalability. Bitcoin will lose market share, as is Ethereum, as its status of a disconnected asset and a safe haven were proven wrong by real-world events. Rather than thriving during the risk-off period, like gold and silver, Bitcoin became the first victim. Investors should think about what purpose Bitcoin can serve, while traders should exercise caution before rushing to buy the dip.
NZD/USD:BEARISH CHANNEL | PRICE CAN DROP MORE ! ! Hello Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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USD/CHF:BULLISH CHANNEL | PRICE IS GROWING FAST⚡️ Everyone, I hope you'll Appreciate our Price action Analysis !
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Trading Idea - #TencentSELL/SHORT!
ENTRY: 61.80 USD
TARGET: 48.70 USD (profit 21%)
STOP: 68.12 USD
The trend is your friend!
Fair price for Tencent is 47.00 USD to 50.00 USD. This range is the aim of the next SHORT trade.
Stop loss above the last touch of the downtrend line (Septermber 2021). Target is the POI of the last year.
BTC Levels
Everything is in the charts. Really tryin to simply as much as possible. We have just crossed ema 8 w/34 and this has confirmed pst 3 reversals. Let us see how this plays out, imo we are at a make or break range, back below 40k is really concerning especially with macroeconomic and political factors.
Trading Idea - #SWATCHSELL Limit Order!
ENTRY: 275 CHF
TARGET: 208 CHF (profit 23%)
STOP: 294 CHF
I assume that the price of the SWATCH share can recover in the short term. This would go up to the POI level of CHF 274.
As SWATCH has become heavily dependent on the Chinese market and the Corona fear continues to dominate the markets, further pressure on the share is to be expected.
Telegram's Blockchain Supercomputer (Our 3rd Pick for Q1, 2022)✔Introduction from Whitepaper :
'The Open Network (TON) is a fast, secure and scalable blockchain and
network project, capable of handling millions of transactions per second if
necessary, and both user-friendly and service provider-friendly. We aim for
it to be able to host all reasonable applications currently proposed and conceived. One might think about TON as a huge distributed supercomputer,
or rather a huge superserver, intended to host and provide a variety of
services.''
In our eyes and to keep things simple what we find interesting is these news:
'Telegram users will soon be able to make payments in cryptocurrency Toncoin
This development comes amid Telegram CEO and co-founder Pavel Durov revealing that the Telegram Open Network (TON) blockchain technology is still in development after the company officially abandoned the project last year.'
The Professor, being a big fan of Crypto and Telegram can simply not stay away from such a combination. We have already engaged, despite the weird, unclear Tokenomics.
Connect the dots:
Crypto community is already on Telegram. Telegram will make it possible to make payments on Telegram. With TON . This sounds like a Winner.
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR ✔️✔️✔️
XAUUSD TRADE IDEAI expect the price to consolidate at its current 1798-1801 level before shooting towards the first strong resistance of 1810. a retest may
occur here back towards past resistance turned support 1800-1802 (baseline of inner channel), after which I am expecting further growth to 1816 at which
some consolidation may occur. the bullish inner channel will now be tested once gold decides to aim for the 1820-1830 area. Final destination at
1854 to complete upper trend line. here we may not now what gold will do.
ENTRY: 1800
TP:1854
SL:1790
pipsbagger
AUDUSD TRADE IDEA expect the price to completely settle on the baseline of the trend at 0.71620 before reversing towards first
major resistance at 0.72200, here I expect a break to 0.72500 with a slight pullback towards the resistance area.
from there the price may consolidate a bit before shooting for the upper trend line 0.73400.
ENTRY: 0.71650
TP: 0.72700
SL: 0.71350
GBPJPY TRADE IDEAI expect the price to break from here and move downward to the trend baseline 155.550
there might be some consolidation before reversal
towards 156.300 level, at this point the price may retest 155.980 area as new support
before skyrocketing towards upper trend line 157.760. once this area holds the price may
fall to create a lower high or pullback slightly for more buying pressure
towards final stop at 158.200.
ENTRY: 155.600
TP:157.700
SL: 155.300
Pipsbagger