Tesla Update Potential Great ROI Trade coming up Good evening or morning trading family
So I created a quick video on a update with Tesla which I felt was important to create for everyone. Currently we are retracing up from a target that I will show you how I got in the video. However two things to mention if we can break 260-263 range we are looking pretty healthy for a bull run up. However if we go back to retest 255.66 we could potentially face another break and further bearish momentum.
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Mindbloome Trading
Trade What You See
Telsa
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TELSA STOCKHello, traders here is a summary of what the Telsa stock price may play out in the future as you can see the price has been respecting the trend lines and ended up creating a pattern (flag bullish pattern) so my prediction is that the price would break the above trend line and retest it then go up.
A Traders’ playbook – is a tactical turn in the USD upon us?After 11 straight weeks of gains in the USD (DXY index), driven by EURUSD trading into 1.0488, and a key weekly close above the YTD range highs (105.40), we ask whether the dollar can make it a 12th.
News that Congress had miraculously pushed out the govt. shutdown for 45 days should be welcomed by risky assets and there is modest gapping risk for the open. Perhaps cynically, the agreement highlights that the US political system is not always completely inept. Also, while we revisit the saga in mid-November, a protracted shutdown, when considered in combination with auto strikes, and student loan repayments would have been the trigger to negatively impacting US Q4 GDP and that may have led to some de-risking.
We also now have a firm understanding that the US Labor Department will release nonfarm payrolls data this Friday, as well as the US CPI report (on 12 Oct), which may have not been the case had the govt. shutdown. This puts the 1 November FOMC meeting back on the table as a potential venue for a further 25bp rate hike.
With US swaps pricing just 4bp of hikes for the 1 Nov FOMC meeting, one could argue the market had discounted the idea the Fed wasn’t going to be privy to this important data to make an informed call on a November hike. We should see these rate hike expectations lift a touch.
Profit taking (in USD longs) aside, one asks where else would you park your capital in G10 FX? The AUD and NZD have stood up of late, but this will take a far better tone on China, and with the Chinese capital markets closed this week for Golden Week that may be an early call. The weekend China PMIs, with manufacturing moving into expansion for the first time since March, will certainly offer a tailwind for these China proxies.
However, once again the markets will likely be held hostage by the direction of US bond yields, USD exceptionalism and positioning.
Tactically, I like crude to consolidate here below $96, and with it CAD and NOK trades should also lack momentum. Gold is at the mercy of the USD and real rates, but after a huge down week, the bulls will be looking at buy limits into $1810 and hoping for a bit more of a flush out. While price has closed below 4329 support, the US500 holds channel support and I’m warming to longs for 4400/50, with a stop below 4230.
Let's see what October brings, but it's encouraging that we’ve seen a pulse in the markets of late.
The marquee event risks to navigate this week:
US nonfarm payrolls (6 Oct 23:30 AEST) – With Congress miraculously averting a government shutdown US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) becomes a risk event for traders to manage. The consensus for NFP is 165k jobs (the economist’s range sits between 250k to 105k), which would be modestly above the 3-month average of 150k jobs. The U/E rate eyed is expected to tick down to 3.7%, although the participation rate will again play a role in that outcome. Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) are expected at 4.3% YoY/0.3% MoM. Simplistically, a NF payrolls print below 140k should see the USD under pressure – above 200k, should see USD buyers, although the extent of the move will be determined by AHEs and the U/E rate.
US ADP payrolls (4 Oct 23:15 AEST) – the consensus sits at 150k jobs in the ADP payrolls report (from 177k in August), with the economist’s range of estimates set between 228k and 102k. The market typically responds to the ADP report when we see an outsized beat to consensus (such as we saw in the July and May prints), but with NFP back in play as the highlight this week the ADP report gets somewhat less focus.
RBA meeting (3 Oct 14:30 AEST) – it would be a huge surprise if the RBA hiked rates at this meeting and we see interest rate futures placing a lowly 8% chance they lift to 4.35%. More importantly, we see 12bp of hikes priced – a 50% probability - for the November meeting, so the market will marry the RBA’s statement and the guidance for rates against that pricing. A hawkish hold seems the likely outcome here, with modest AUD upside risks at RBA gov Bullock's first meeting at the helm. AUDCHF has been a momentum beast rallying in 11 of the past 12 days – happy to hold longs until price closes below the 8-day EMA.
RBNZ meeting (4 Oct 12:00 AEST) – The RBNZ will almost certainly hold rates at 5.5%, but like RBA, market expectations have swung to a 50% chance of a hike in the November RBNZ meeting. Commentary and guidance that suggests they retain the optionality to hike again could drive the NZD. NZDCAD longs look interesting, having broken the 0.8100 to 0.7950 consolidation range – can this kick higher?
US services ISM (5 Oct 01:00 AEST) – we should see some cooling in the services index, with the consensus at 53.5 (vs 54.5 in August) – 53.5 would still be a healthy level of growth in services and reinforce the US exceptionalism trade. Would expect a solid USD sell-off on a print around/below 50, and an outsized rally above 55.0.
US ISM manufacturing (3 Oct 01:00 AEST) – the consensus view is we see the diffusion index coming in at 47.9, which would be another contraction, but a modest improvement from the August print of 47.6. A number below 45 would be a shock and could see USD longs look to reduce, likely taking the DXY towards Friday’s low of 105.65. A print above 50.0 would also be a surprise and likely spur a renewed leg higher in the USD, where we should see USDJPY into 150
US JOLTS job openings (4 Oct 01:00 AEST) – The market looks for 8.83m job openings in August (from 8.827m). Consolidation in job openings after a strong decline from 12m openings in March 2022 seems highly probable.
UK Decision Makers Panel (5 Oct 19:30 AEST) – the market eyes 3-month (inflation) output prices 20bp lower from the last call at 4.7% and 1-year price expectations to fall to 4.6%. GBP swaps pricing holds 19bp of hikes priced by Feb 2024, so a downside outcome to the DMP outlook could reduce market rate expectations and further weigh on GBP. I personally can’t help but sit in the camp where the BoE are done hiking. GBPAUD and GBPNZD downside looks attractive, even though both pairs have been sold hard through September.
UK Global/CIPS services PMI (4 Oct 19:30 AEST) – this is a final read in the UK September services PMI release, although the market is not looking for a revision from the announced 47.2 print for the diffusion index. GBPUSD holds a regression channel (drawn from the 13 July high) – for momentum accounts, sell-stop orders through 1.2180 make sense.
Canada employment report (6 Oct 23:30 AEST) – with one eye on crude, CAD traders will be looking at FX exposures over the Canadian job report. Leveraged funds hold a sizeable CAD long position and they will be ‘hoping’ for a blowout jobs report to put a rate hike (at the 25 Oct BoC meeting) in play, where the swaps market places a 28% chance of a hike at this meeting, and a 56% chance of a hike at the December meeting - the jobs data could influence market expectations, as it would the CAD. The consensus is we see 20k jobs created in September, with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 5.6%.
Korea exports (1 Oct 11:00 AEST) – expectations of a 9.3% decline in Korean exports in September will be monitored, especially for signs of trade flows to China. USDKRW has been a strong momentum long and as we see has broken out to YTD highs – can this kick? Weak export data could see further USD upside in this pair.
• Fed speakers – Powell & Harker (3 Oct 02:00 AEST), Williams, Mester, Bostic, Bowman, Goolsbee, Mester, Daly
• BoE speakers – Catherine Mann, Broadbent
• ECB speakers – 16 speeches this week. See timetable below
TSLA - MyMI Option Plays - July CallsThis morning's CPI numbers sent most stocks up fairly nicely this morning. TSLA being one of those in which we were looking for a support breakdown potentially if those CPI numbers were at least more than expected.
I'm happy with the CPI Numbers, if the markets are, so we are following suit with Calls going into September Fed Decision.
TSLA - MyMI Option Plays - PUTsI purchased some PUTs this morning as I expect TSLA to rebound back to at least the $268s or $264s for an excellent $12-$16 Puts Catch on the Drop.
I am sharing this to track the trade!
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MyMI Option Plays - TSLA CallsWe've been watching TSLA for the past few weeks waiting for confirmation of not only the compression zone breakout, but also support being found above that compression + above the $197 Price Levels.
We were able to acquire our Calls around the $199 pullback right before it confirmed support above $197 with the expectation to sell out if TSLA loss that same support and fell back below those levels risking going back to the longer downward trend that it's been trading in since the second pullback from it's most recent breakout.
We have a 2nd Level downtrend to breakthrough but even going from $199 to $220 on a longer-term call option play but we first have to break above $206.93.
If we see resistance there, we will consider closing to conserve the funds for another opportunity.
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#TSLA Looking in a Pullback toward $150The chart of #Tesla was analysed on 06.02.2023.
It was seen that telsa would come for a retracement but we were too early as the wave 5 was pending upside.
Now it looks it will come for 61.8% of retracement for wave (ii) and will resume it's uptrend thereafter.
Pls stay tuned for more educational content.
Regards
TSLA - MyMI Long Option PlaysWe've been running PUTs since TSLA's last opportunity to hold above the $204s and ultimately the resistance that kicked in around the $214s.
We are in the process of getting ready to close our Short Options Play as we wait for confirmation of the Yellow Lower Support that TSLA has been respecting since the beginning of the year going into an 80% reversal overall from its Low.
While we wait to close those trades (and this being the reasoning for considering that, knowing that there is still a $150 Gap to close that has yet to be seen. But you can also see the Horizontal Support that TSLA has for the most respecting and last tested as resistance, immediately switched to support and pushed to retest the $214s levels that we saw get rejected here over the past month or so (Beginning of Feb '23 at least).
We are preparing to purchase some longs as long as TSLA closes above these prices going into next week. Most likely won't place our trades until the open of Monday, but may have some low-risk options that we could benefit from over a strong weekend bounce. The only thing that is holding us back from that is the issues in the financial sectors which are running in parallel with the Fed Decision coming up in March for the Fed Funds Rate.
The SPY is currently showing a strong pulldown in today's session. So we're being heavily cautious of even considering Longs at least going into the end of the week.
But look forward to the Premarket Session on Monday to make up your own mind about which direction we're going from here. Thinking we may retest the $190 following the higher blue trend of resistance.
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TSLA - MyMI Short Option PlaysWe purchased a variety of options throughout these mornings Price Actions with the markets opening for the week.
As we expected in our last analysis, we were looking for a Double Rejection of or around the $214's and TSLA couldn't hold or create support above those levels. So we started looking for entries into Shorts last week but didn't stack them up until today due to the long weekend. Purchase some SPY PUTs simultaneously to see some potential settlement in the recent Bull pushes that we've seen in some good other names (some vs. our own expectation of their price actions).
Everyone has provided a strong focus on the $152-$153 Gap that hasn't been backfilled yet so we're expecting some decent pullback and at least riding this week to retest $188. If we see strong momentum in our TA Indies then we will look at $172 next at least. Well definitely be okay with a sale at the $188, a short-term reversal ride and then making our way back to $150 if we even see it that steep.
Overall we closed green for the day and expect potentially a strong push if there is an overacted sale of the current Red Descending Trend/Triangle that you can see forming.
MULN: SIMPLE SETUP FOR A SIMPLE PLAYDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a semi-macro analysis of MULN a penny stock that has seen a continuous drop since IPO after hitting record highs of roughly 1200 points but now down to penny stock territory.
POINTS:
1. Deviation of 0.2000 justifies SUPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT.
2. Symmetrical Triangle Formation
3. ONE LAST TEST OF 0.3200 CAN STILL BE IN THE WORKS & WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE STABLE SETUP.
IMO: With current chart setup I would consider this stock to have great bullish momentum on the short term and should perhaps only be seen as a squeeze play rather than an investment over the long term.
SCENARIO #1: In a bullish scenario price action should break 0.5500 with strong momentum to give way to a potential squeeze of price action.
SCENARIO #2: In a bearish scenario if price action is to break down below 0.2500 with strong momentum this would invalidate setup and be an optimal exit.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:MULN
$FSR $5.00 OR $50.00 -----Not a Single Car sighted in LA The first Fisker Ocean rolled off the assembly line at Magna on Nov. 17, in line with expectations. Being on time is a rare feat for EV start-ups.
Fisker expects to build and ship 42,000 Ocean SUVs in 2022. That's the next test for the company and the stock.
The DXY - Will likely determine the fate of the broader market. Hello Traders,
As many of you know, the DXY has a large part to play in whether the broader market rallies, or dumps. Just take a look at yesterday when the broader market dumped, the dollar had a massive rally.
- Knowing that there is this correlation, we can use the DXY to help us determine what the broader market might do.
- We want to find the likely scenario for DXY, and use that likely scenario to guide our decisions for other trades.
Right now, the DXY is forming a 4Hr Bull Flag. As the name implies this could potentially lead to a bullish move. If the DXY does trend Bullish, the broader market will likely trend bearish.
As a broad statement:
DXY Bullish = Risk Assets Bearish
DXY Bearish = Risk Assets Bullish
So if the broader market is going to have a shot at a rally, the DXY needs to rollover and trend bearish.
So then how do I know whether the DXY is going to be bullish or Bearish?!
- Simple, we have support and resistance levels that will guide us.
If support breaks, the DXY will rollover and most likely create a higher low.
- This rollover will give bulls in the broader market the confidence to rally the market.
If support holds and the DXY breaks higher, the bears in the broader market will likely take price lower.
Use this chart as a guide and keep an eye on these levels.
Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
NDXZooming out, NDX looks strong, as per EW rules the 5th wave must match the 1st wave in both time and %.
That said fomo can obviously send the 5th much higher and also terminate the trend earlier.
But for now in respect to the fact that EW is not a crystal ball ,
I would say that since I am counting the 4th wave finished on the week June 13th 2022 the bulls have until July 2023 to finish the 5th wave at my projected target of 18,600.
(not accounting for any Fomo)
Also I expect a correction soon back to 12,300 or there about to make the LTF daily chart W2.
Tesla: Current Price Moves Within a Bearish StructureTesla has been moving in a wide descending channel since late 2021. We can clearly spot that prices have been making lower highs and lower lows. The price is currently moving within a short-term bearish structure after a rejection by the trend line. Last week, we can observe that price has completed its retracement and was rejected at the previous support level. This makes the bearish structure still valid and we expect the price to fall to test the $760 level first, and then to test $700 level, which is the 2022 low.
Would the fate of Tesla follow Bitcoin ?There is probably no co-relation between Tesla stock and Bitcoin. I compare them out of sheer curiosity after reading this article .
I won't long Tesla for now as I am not comfortable with its current price and I think the mad rush chase by retail traders are getting out of hand. That is my opinion, who knows, it might follow BTCUSD and goes up exponentially so much so that the short sellers have to declare bankruptcy like what Elon Musk previously did.
Make sure you insure yourself properly if you want to partake in such risks like not borrowing money to bet on this stock, employ stop loss, correct position sizing and capital management.
I wish you the best of luck !!!