Bonds have edged lower, breaking through support at 119'23. We have fallen to suport at 119'01, currently hugging this level, but finding good support confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has slipped a little, confirming the selloff, but has since appeared to level off. If we are able to pivot here, then 119'23 and 120'14 are the next...
Bonds have soared, blasting through resistance at 118'04 and crossing the vacuum zone to 119'01. We anticipated resistance at 118'04, but momentum came through and we have broken through 119'01, meeting resistance just above this level confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up, and should momentum continue, we should be able to hit...
Bonds have found support just above our level at 117'19. We appear to be forming a bear wedge, but the Kovach OBV is flat, suggesting we may range at current levels. After the precipitous decline from 121'00, it is likely that we will establish value in a sideways correction or even a relief rally, before another selloff. If we break down further, then 117'08...
Bonds have found support and made a run for higher levels. The ten year dipped 119'23 into the 118's, finding support just above our level at 118'04. We then saw a rebound to 120'14, which we have been identifying as the next target after 119'23. It will take some momentum to break this level however, since this is a relative high from back in April. We are...
As anticipated the bond rout continues. We saw a brief relief rally after the FOMC, as the hikes were largely priced in. However, 119'01 provided prohibitive resistance, and ZN immediately rejected it. We found brief support at 118'04, but have broken through this level, and are currently clinging onto 118'00 by a thread. The next target is the level below at...
As anticipated, bonds faced steep resitance from 121'00 and sharply retraced. We have fallen back to 119'23, one level above lows at 119'01. The Kovach OBV ticked up slightly with the rally, but has fallen sharply at the moment. At this point it is clear that any rally is purely technical and the bear rout is still at play.
Bonds have stabilized for now after a brief relief rally. We tested higher levels at 123'15 or so, after falling 7 handles from the 129's to the 122's in less than one month. The rally was short lived, and just a technical respite into the overall bear trend, exactly as we had predicted here. The price promptly rejected this level, as anticipated, and headed...
Bonds keep falling as yields are rising globally. It seems that we have to redo our levels to predict yet another new low in ZN. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish and we have fallen 7 handles, from the 129's to 122's in the month of March. We are currently testing support at 122'10, but the bear rout shows no sign of stopping. It would be unwise to try to...
Bonds have edged out new lows as investors weigh deescalation of the war in Ukraine and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike . Yields in ZN, the 10 year treasury note, are the highest they've been since July 2019. We have sliced through multiple technical levels below, and have established new lows, yet again. We do appear to be seeing a brief pivot...
Bonds appeared to be making an effort to attempt higher levels, with a bull wedge pattern forming with an upper bound at 128'10. However, we broke down from this pattern, smashing through the 128 handle into the 127's and then some. The next level of support at 127'22 did little to provide support, though we finally bottomed out for now just above 127'08. ...
continues to trade within the broadening pattern. The growth bounce stalled, and the bond continues to hold in EQ
worst case Crude can double bottom to finish W4 B4 finally making that push to $108 as my 5 wave analysis predicts, hopping fora higher low vs $62 TBH B C weak crude strong DXY weak 10 yr is an ugly combo
That wraps-up the trading before the break. The 10 Year Note is top watch as we round the corner to last month of the year. Today, after a pre-market ramp, the 10 year found resistance, fueling the relief rally for NAS. NAS found support, after recovering the Daily MBB.
Bonds have encroached on the upper bound of the range, hitting our target at 131'02. We have inched above that at present and are running into some resistance as identified by two triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably. If the bull bias continues watch for ZN to cross the vacuum zone to 131'12. If we pull back a bit, then watch for it to...
Broadening rising wedge broke earlier, low will be tested and yields are going to spike and make new intermediate highs. 1.6% will only be seen in the rear view mirror.
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If you follow my work, you know how the Bond market is crucial to my analysis. It is the largest market in the world, and we are heading to a period where central banks really have no ammunition anymore and are using rhetoric to maintain confidence in the system. The history of humanity is cycles of hard money and soft money. It seems we are reaching the end of...
The 10 year has rebounded off the major 1M Support this month, making a statement with last week's strong 1W candle. This marked a Triple Top formation on the 1M scale (since 2012) and the trend shift becomes obvious. 1D is trading near overbought territory (RSI = 70.811) pushing the 1W towards neutrality (RSI = 42.781, ADX = 58.406, Highs/Lows = 0.0000),...