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Capitulations or fakeouts are good signalsThis is a long fakeout in the chart of $ENPH. We look at this fakeout after it brakes a trendline and you don't find continuation to the downside after retesting the break. After this, the fakeouts market liquidates many MANY sell positions and call options that they do 2 things: Scare the sellers with bad loses Add tons of liquidity or volume around these prices. Plus, the MACD gives a delayed, but great signal to ATH. And the fundamentals are looking great: www.etoro.com So, I can do 2 things, go for different mini trades in the 4 hours allocating 0.5% to 1.5% of my portfolio and leveraging those either X2 or X5. Or I can go the low-risk option and add a larger allocation, up to 5%, and just let it be there. 1) Short-term trading (swing trades) with low leverage: The Pros of this strat are having more capital to open other trades like BTC (which is moving now) or just having cash for hedge purposes. The Cons is the risky trades as I can lose that capital easier in this way as the short-term trades are usually fewer probability trades. 2) Long-term position with higher allocation. On the contrary, a long-term position is a higher probability trade, not a time-consuming (a simple SL and TP order would do) position, but it allocates a large amount of capital. I'll try to do half and half this time. Let me know what you think about this
NASDAQ:ENPHLong
by CriptoJoe
S&P500 Long Term Moving AveragesThis chart shows ES with 4 long term averages - 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 20 year. I marked some periods where we dipped below the 1 year average and some volume spikes I saw as relevant. 2015 - Eurozone Crisis: The issues in Europe cause us to finally break the long held trend for the first time since the GFC recovery. It was preceded by a high volume wick in 2014 and another in 2015, both of which seem to have established a bottom for the upcoming scare. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~15%. 2018 - Repo Crisis: This period was also proceeded by a high volume wick but contrary to the last, it did not establish the floor for the upcoming drop. Instead, it was a bounce off the 1 year EMA trend. We saw volume start to rise leading to a large downside candle that signified the bottom. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~22%. 2020 - Covid Crisis: Everyone knows what happened here. The sudden monster volume candle is due to the unexpected nature of this period and how dire the situation seemed. The bottom was almost exactly at the 10 year moving average before violently bouncing back up. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~36%. The current crisis seems bad in the moment but with respect to these prior periods it is not crushing. We already have seen a peak to bottom drop of ~15% so matching the 2015 era would mean we have bottomed already. Matching the 2018 era would mean an additional ~10% from the current price and would put us around 3800. Matching the Covid era would be a disaster and would see us drop another 30% from here. The 35-40% peak to bottom drop would likely lineup at the 10 year moving average assuming it plays out the same (obviously it won't be exactly the same - these crashes are unpredictable) My opinion is that a Covid type crash is not in the cards. Things are nowhere near as bleak as they were then and there would be a strong fiscal/monetary response before we even got there. Also, black swan events are unpredictable so there is no point doing anything in advance to predict them - you can't. 2018 is a somewhat similar scenario but the Repo market is not at risk like it was then. The fed is also being much more clear about rate hikes this time around and clarity is bullish. I think the most similar scenario is 2015. We are seeing trouble in Europe after a recovery rally. Bonds look risky and everyone is calling for another crash. Earnings are still phenomenal and weak companies are getting flushed out without crashing the whole market. Maybe we retest the 4100 lows or even 4000 but I don't think we'll see a huge drop below that. If we do, I think we'll see massive buying pressure around 3800 and bears will run out of bad news and buying power. For a rally look for decreasing VIX and volume and for the Fed to stick to a clear plan. This would be better for stock buying than options and the 2021 WSB guys could get crushed by talented stock pickers. Buy quality and hold long term.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Seth-Goldberg
[ETC/USD] Long term: What is the future of ETC?TREND: Trending line has clear bearish tendencies since the end of February. SUPPORT: We are currently missing any major support line until around 2.662USD. Either we will create a new support by side action or we will fall in correlation with the trend line. VOLUME: Volume is proving to be not big enough for bulls. We can clearly see that bears are taking the lead. Should we see some change? If yes, then already mentioned side action is needed with higher highs. RSI (100days): It is currently on 42 (meaning of life?) which is not hugely oversold, therefore there is still lots of room for selling action. Summary and prediction? I see ETC slowly falling down to the area of 2.662USD until the half/end of January. If you agree, then your like is appreciated :) Happy trading.
BITFINEX:ETCUSDShort
by Astral_Rascal
Front Curve Crude Light Volatility: Mar'22/Apr'22Upside vs Downside interchangeably for short or long risk exposure at current flat front CL1! price. The IV stands at 73%, which is more conservative than the highlighted risk profile. Not a tradable setup; just for reference timeframes when looking for a bias. The median line, from which the % change is measured, is derived by using the Inside Pitchfork tool; it is the least inclined from Pitchfork tools, provides a less aggressive slope for the long term outlook.
NYMEX:CLK2022
by Zoen_Trieste
ADA Bulls came back into the game and aimed for key $1.0 level Cardano price reversed its downtrend and has been moving higher with the support of an ascending trendline. ADA coin accumulated above 2022 year lows before recovery, indicating buyers' strong dominance. The ADA coin is trading into the Ichimoku cloud in terms of the daily price graph. Going by the ADA forecast, the bulls are once again targeting the psychological round of $1.0. Amidst the recovery, ADA appears to be in the Ichimoku Cloud (RedZone) in the context of the daily price chart, with the leading Span A acting as a bearish barrier. Besides, the key SAP B (present at 1.005) could influence the bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slowly moving up and is looking at 57-mark in the context of the daily price chart. The RSI is trading above the semi-line (50-mark) after a prolonged period; buyers can take advantage of this bullish breakout. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 18-points, suggesting the slightly bullish momentum for the Cardano coin. To the psychological level of $1.0, buyers may continue the recovery, and near $1.0, a pullback is likely to occur. Now it remains to be seen whether the bulls will be able to move above $1.0. Support level - $0.80 and $0.50 Resistance level - $1.0 and $1.6
Long
by TheCoinRepublic
Watch the US 10Y Yield chart as it approaches MAJOR resistanceI am taking a closer look at a long-term chart of the US 10Y yield today, I consider this to be a very important chart. Why? Firstly, Government debt continued to sell-off yesterday, with bond bears spurred on by more hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Powell, and secondly, I prefer to look at yield charts as I consider that the data is clearer and not disrupted or distorted by the ‘rollovers’ of the bond futures market. Ok I have done something a little strange on this chart, I can clearly see the down trend in evidence going back nearly 40-years and yet when I try to draw a trendline, I can only get a resistance line (a line that joins only 2 points and not 3). Why is this important? Because I want to know exactly at what point this nearly 40-year bull market capitulates - so what have I done? I have instead connected the lows from 1993 (there are at least 4 major lows) and drawn a parallel off this support line. Our long-term resistance line is at 2.52 BUT our parallel line is higher at 2.63 AND we have the 200-month ma in close proximity at 2.68. Conclusion – the MAJOR resistance lies at 2.63/68 and these are the KEY levels to watch. I have been watching these levels for at least the past 2-years, because not only will this will be the final death knell of the bond market, but because we also suspect at this level the stock market could also capitulate. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
XAUUSD Predicted to be BullishXAUUSD Predicted to be Bullish XAUUSD analysis . We will analyze in H1 TF, where we see that Gold is experiencing a bearish trend or down. In moments like this, we can take short positions when the price has been confirmed or has broken through the strongest support level. . For the current hour and today, Gold most likely will form a double bottom pattern on H1 TF, you can all see it. And if that's the case, we can take advantage of this to buy on weakness or buy in areas where the market has confirmed the trend, namely at the price of 1929. . The level of accuracy is uncertain because the character of the gold market is very volatile, so be careful when opening trading positions in this market. . - Don't forget to follow me to get the next idea update
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by yunusbahtiar
1
Bitcoin Adoption in El Salvador is HUGEWhile the majority of the companies in the survey pool were small businesses as they account for 71% of the respondents, 16% of them were large companies and 13% were medium scale businesses. What this survey shows is that despite the litany of moves the government has made to drive its people towards Bitcoin, the level of adoption is still considerably low. Despite the low adoption rate, President Nayib Bukele remains bullish on the flagship digital asset, and the country currently holds around 1,800 units of the coin. El Salvador’s Bitcoin Bond plan hits a snag El Salvador’s plan to build a Bitcoin city financed by a $111 billion Bitcoin bonds appears to have hit a snag as the country’s finance minister, Alejandro Zelaya, in a recent interview with a local TV station hinted that the ongoing war in Ukraine could impact the implementation of the bond. The bond was first announced in November 2021, and it was revealed that half of the money generated from the bond sales would be spent on building infrastructure and geothermal energy-powered Bitcoin mining. The other half would be used to purchase Bitcoin for the country.
FX:BTCUSDLong
by booflebacop
SANDBOX - $SANDI'm looking to accumulate Sand into my portfolio, so i'm posting this to see if i can see any patterns forming in how $Sand does in this current market state. Short Term - I see Sand retracing a bit from today's HSBC news pump back to retest the previous support; the news helped break out of the current down trend. I'm expecting to see sideways action for the next month leading into the summer. Long term - DCA during the dips and if it dips into the green area of support, then i will be buying more to lower my average. Not financial advice - always do your own research. This chart is for speculation purposes only.
GEMINI:SANDUSD
by Kenjin_Tanoshii
BTC on the path to retest 50-55k resistance zoneHaha what a laugh we had today with J powell (FOMC) meeting announcing that the FED is going to raise rates of 0.25% lol what a great actor he is! Let's be clear your gov has absolutely no intention of fighting inflationation at all! it won't stop until they have completely destroyed the middle class and buy it all!! Any major chaos is being use as cover to inflate, raise energy, gas and print more money for all theirs friends, bankers, gaz and military companies but not YOU! They do not care about you and you must understand the game and protect yourself against hyperinflation and the biggest crisis we are going to face! I knew the market will react positively and i wasn't worry about the FOMOC meeting of today and i mentionned several times in the past weeks that btc was definitely in an area of interest where price has historically always react in a positive way. I also mentionned that this was no area for short but place where you should be looking for long! In my hubble opinion i truly believe that we are seeing a pattern reversal confirmation since btc broke that descending resistance trendline we were rejecting since November 2021 Now btc forming a higher low on a higher timeframe, see my weekly chart above ( confirmation that we reverse that bearish trend). I am now waiting btc to clear this 45k resistance to rise to the next Resistance zone 50-55K.
Long
by ElDiablo0604