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long SILVERSimilar pattern to the analysis just drafted on GOLD, applies to SILVER, where we have seen chart patterns being highly correlated to xau movements, combined to a significant increase of physical delivery between the major players. We will play on silver with same logic: very tight stop, in correspondence of today lows and TP level at 28. SL will be moved higher to protect profits. We will obviously take in consideration FED pressconference, if the trade is still open, to manage the risk during news time.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Atlas-Horizon
Bitcoin - When in doubt, zoom out.Do you believe in the long-term future of BTC? Having rallied to 69k for a top in late 2021 from COVID-19 panic lows set in March 2020, BTC has since retraced around 50 percent to the lows of 33.5k set on January 24th, 2022. 


In the current environment of endless short-term bulls and bears, it is easy to forget the initial reason why we have invested in the first place, the exponential long-term trajectory of this decentralized, secure, and scarce asset that attracted us to this space. Although cliched, ‘When in doubt, zoom out’ is an important principle, especially 
If you’re a long-term believer of bitcoin. 

In this post, I present three scenarios for BTC to play out in the medium term. I will also discuss how I am navigating this uncertain market. Bullish Scenario - BOOM before DOOM
 In this bullish scenario, we would see a breakout of the current range of 45k in the next couple of months, with a potential higher-high set at the mid-50ks for a base for another leg higher and a parabolic breakout above our macrocycle highs of 69k towards 120k+ or so, towards the end of the year or early 2023. This parabolic run could be similar to November 2017 bull market top. It would likely be followed by a heavy 70%+ correction, falling below the Gaussian channel depicted, and bottoming at around the 200 Week Moving Average, which has marked the bottom for the past three market cycles. Fundamentally, this would play out based on lengthening-cycle, diminishing returns theory, that bitcoin cycles lengthen with time, thus, taking longer than the 4 years predicted by many analysts using stock to flow model.

You can read more about the Lengthening cycle theory here: 

beincrypto.com - Not affiliated. 
Note, a 70% correction is a conservative prediction compared with the past blow-off top cycle corrections which have been 95%, 90%, and 85% respectively. This coincides with 120k or so being a conservative figure for a market cycle top.

 So, why might there be diminished returns? Well, there are many reasons for this. Firstly, the BTC market is vastly more institutional. We can see that 80% of trading volume is now Institutions and only 20% is retail as of 14th March 2022. Compare this to the 2017 bull run, where over 90% was retail. Institutional investors in markets tend to reduce volatility. Secondly, and most importantly, BTC has a magnitude market cap of 800B compared with 2017 and 2013. Larger asset markets tend to be less volatile than smaller asset markets. Compare a small-cap or micro-cap stock to a Large cap dividend-paying stock for example.

 
 Sideways scenario - Consolidation before BOOM. For the sideways consolidation scenario, we would see the price consolidate within the current macro range lows of 28.8k and 69k until the price breaks out to the upside to new all-time highs. This range-bound price movement could see many relief rallies and breakdowns (some being below the Gaussian channel for the 5 day depicted) adhering to the macrocycle lows and highs. Because the 200 Week moving average is up-trending, it would eventually catch up to the sideways moving bitcoin price, given enough time. Depending on the moving average position, it could test it later this year, or even early 2023. This test of the 200W MA would mark the bottom of the 4-year cycle. An important distinction for the breakout is that the all-time high blow-off top, will not occur until AFTER the 2024 halving event and not during the current four-year cycle. Historically halving events have preceded major bull cycle market runs in the following year, as can be seen with 2016 and 2020. It assumes that 69k was the market cycle peak and that four-year market cycle theory holds and cycles do not lengthen. Why could this consolidation occur? Firstly, it is historically plausible. Note, we did see a major consolidation during the 2018 bear market at around 6K before the major market capitulation at 3k. Secondly, institutions have largely bought into bitcoin in or around the 30k region. As this is the cost basis of many institutional investors, this may serve to prop up markets primarily through psychological means. The mass institutional adoption of bitcoin and vastly increased market cap could also shrink volatility more than expected, perhaps to the desired 50-55% to keep it in the range. Bearish Scenario - DOOM before BOOM. In this scenario, we would see an eventual capitulation below the macro lows at around $30,000 with a downside target to the 200 moving average on a more aggressive timeframe. A major catalyst for this could be a black swan style event, e.g. economic collapse of the bond market, world war 3. Alternatively, it may slowly bleed down to the 200-week moving average. The former would likely result in a faster and deeper correction price target in the low 20ks or even wicks below, with a rapid bounce, and the latter likely result in a shallower correction to the mid 20k region. This is due to the nature of the 200-week moving average, trending up with time. This would be followed by a consolidation phase and trend higher going into the 2024 halving, before a blow-off top to new all-time highs. Similar to the 'sideways scenario', this assumes that the four-year cycle theory holds, meaning that 69k was the top for the current market cycle. The thesis for the price being bearish over the medium term fits with past bull market collapses such as 2018, where a protracted bear market usually follows in the year after a parabolic run such as 2017. So you are predicting it will go up, down, or sideways? YES. Noone on TradingView, has a crystal ball, regardless of how skilled they are. Trading and investing are inherently both, probability-based games, and to be successful, it is important to plan and prepare for multiple scenarios, whilst also holding a primary thesis for what the market will do.
 Buy Low - Sell High: The 200 Week Moving average and Gaussian Channel A common principle for long-term investors of an increasing asset is the concept of 'Buying low and Selling High'. The beauty of this lies in that this is ambiguous to market direction, and encourages investors to buy at opportune times. There are many ways to do this, using technical, fundamental, and quantitative analysis. One way, that I propose here is using the Gaussian Channel and 200 Week moving average. Take a look at the chart for 2014, 2018, and 2020 corrections: The chart illustrates the past price action of bitcoin returning to the 200 week moving average after major parabolic moves and falling below the Gaussian channel range. This represents a potential accumulation range from the gaussian channel where if one would have maximized their returns if they had bought, and has marked the bottom (for 200-week ma) or 50% from the bottom (for the Gaussian channel lower line) of past bear markets. (illustrated). How am I navigating the markets? Not financial advice. Bitcoin will at some point, retrace to the 200 week moving average. It could be later this year or only after another bullish move higher has occurred further down the track. There will be periods that BTC will remain below the Gaussian channel of the 5 day, which represent undervalued prices. At the time of writing, the accumulation range is between 20k and 38k. I am accumulating in this range, with buy orders which increase in size as we approach 20k, keeping order size smaller towards the top of the range. I have a current smaller position in BTC to hedge the opportunity cost of missing out on a shorter-term bull run this year. If you liked this post, please consider taking a look at some of my free scripts, I love developing software and apps in my spare time, and trading / investing is a passion of mine. This post is NOT financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions, this is for entertainment and education purposes only. Thanks for reading!
BNC:BLX
by TraderHalai
4
Short and Long +150%The stock has already unloaded enough, but the closest support is only around $57-60. Overall, this is not a good time for Chinese ADRs. Therefore, for the time being, fall until the situation improves, then rebound from the support zone to $130. ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Stock trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast
NYSE:BABAShort
by QuantumLabSignals
5
BTC still on an overall uptrend, regardless of inflation When in doubt, Zoom Out! Notes on Bitcoin: -We're still in an overall uptrend, hitting higher-lows. -Institutional adoption helped carry us to nearly 70k. -Since COVID, investors continued to pump it and take profits. -Evergrande will be the deciding factor whether we break below all the support it still has. -Inflation slowed the growth, trapped us in a channel for the time-being. -Russia/Ukraine war isn't helping, but it also isn't hurting, even with all the news of disabled/blocked transactions in Russia. -Alt coins follow BTC, so if an Alt coin is down, it's because BTC is down... but don't dismiss other factors such as bullish/bearish news around the individual alt coins. -Now, more than ever, is going to be your best opportunity to invest in BTC. -Even if it dropped another 5k in value, you'd stand to profit in the long run when the markets recover and reverse into another bull run to 100k. -Keep an eye on the news & current events. Those with deep pockets can still profit off BTC thru day trading, but others should Buy & Hold, and accumulate. -While hundreds of billions of dollars have come flooding in from institutional investors, there's still an incredibly LARGE portion of the world that has yet to invest. -If you're still in doubt, Zoom Out, all the way back to 2010, and Replay the daily change from 2010 thru Now. With every crash comes recovery and continued Growth!!
Long
by bam607
ETH- Sitting at Supply Level- UpdatePosting a quick update on ETH here as it's currently sitting at a make-or-break spot. ETH is holding quite a large symmetrical triangle here on the daily timeframe but also is rejecting both its 20 and 50-Day EMAs. ETH is also currently hugging a big RSI-Based supply level & bouncing off the .236 FIB level. Additionally, something certainly worth noting and keeping an eye on the 4-Hour timeframe- Big Head and Sholders formed along with a bearish bat harmonic pattern (See Attached Chart Below). On a slightly different note, with pending regulations rolling out I personally would expect some further downside as the panic selling begins. Heikin-Ashi candles already depict a decrease in bullish momentum. Just some FIB levels to watch along with some RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime- Bearish in the short-term but bullish in the long-term so will be watching closely for potential long entries, all previous charts are attached below. - Symmetrical Triangle on the daily timeframe - Hidden Bearish divergence on the RSI on the 4-Hour Timeframe - Head & Shoulders on the 4-hour - Bearish bat harmonic pattern on the weekly timeframe (See Attached Chart Below) - Declining volume on the weekly timeframe (See Attached Chart Below) --4-Hour Timeframe-- --Previously Charted--
KRAKEN:ETHUSDShort
by jacobosiason7
1
ARK funds - Could we see the light at the end of tunnel ? Hello Traders and (and maybe Tech/ Value / Longterm Investors ?), ARK funds took BIG hit last year and sell-offs continue. (Panic and uncertainty at the market, raising Inflation and Interest rates, ... War or Pandemy, what could be worse ? WW3 ? ). So are the ARK funds Investable ? I believe so... but under some conditions. 1) Most stocks were simply overvalued and still not profitable. (Growth stocks investing in the future potential). 2) Most stocks are good picks and can be found also in funds of many other famous investors). 3) You need to believe there are some technologies which will shape future world same like do companies like APPLE, Facebook, Amazin or other giants today. Because many of todays giants are going to do bad decisions (or simply don´t pay attention) and lose their stake of market. 4) Investing in the ETF which is diversified into 30+ Stocks is some king of protection against stockpicking.Entire ARK strategy is based on statistics = some companies will be loosers, BUT some will WIN BIG. To setup some good investing strategy we should find place whereRisk:Reward ratio is best. - If you look at the chart of individual stocks in this ETF most of them are finding lower lows and creating simple / double RSI convergencies. - P/E ratios could be still high (above 20), but check history of Walmart´s or Amazon´s P/E. - Nearest support level is Pre-pandemic zone of 40-60 USD. In my opinion, we are forming last wave (v) of C corrective wave. Using Fibonachi extension of Wave A, ost probable zone for GOOD buy opportunity is around 62.9 USD (1.414 Extension). (= -16% from current level) BEST opportunity will be if the price drops to 49-40 USD zone (Maybe some sharp wick to gather stop-losses). (= - 30% from current level) Risks: - US Dollar currency index seems to form triangel on 1W Timeframe. if we reach to top line and turn around, it will mean positive outlook for speculative High growth companies and Crypto market. - World War 3 (small chance, But in that case the stock market really doesn´t matter for few years); - Very high inflation (than you really wanna be invested in something with huge growth). Recommendation: - DO YOUR HOMEWORK and check all the companies in the ARK fund which you would like to buy to be sure it rezonate with U. also check "Scottish Mortgage Investment TRUST" (Ticker:SMT) which I personally like. They came first with Tesla investment thesis and benefitted most. ;)
AMEX:ARKWLong
by LongevityContrarian
1
KnowBe4 is told to retrace 50%!Market is finishing flag pattern we are waiting for a retracement back to 50% fib zone at least. Aroon: It already shows on a daily timeframe a loss of bearish momentum because it's bouncing off of a support, that's shows reverse to a bullish direction MACD: Shows gain in a bullish momentum, it is slower to catch up so we can already entry. Bollinger band: we already jumped off of a bottom of Bollinger band and retraced we should see rise in price. Fundamental analysis: According to Goldman Sachs KnowBe4 is one of the beaten down stocks that may retrace 50% other two stocks already shown gain unlike this one, so we have a potential rise in price. Also Essex gives gives this stock a buy rating and 32$ price target until the next year. Invalidation: 16.46 Entry: 19 Target: 23.90
KLong
by vf_investment
BSY BULLISH POTENTIALMarket just finished complete Elliot wave 1-5 with an ABC correction, we are back at the buy zone, which market created with an institutional candle back when in it's beginning. Aroon: Orange line crossed the blue one in the daily time frame which already shows that we are heading bullish direction. MACD: Shows gain in the Bullish momentum we need to wait for it to cross upwards with a signal line on a daily timeframe. Bollinger bands: We already bounced from the bottom Bollinger band which indicates we are heading bullish. We should retrace all the way back to 50% fib zone, but we have a strong resistance just below it, taking that resistance as our target is a lot safer. Entry 37 Invalidation 30.59 Target 50.21 Ratio 1:4
NASDAQ:BSYLong
by vf_investment
APple shows signs of moving upTechnical analysis: Market just broke the uptrend but is still fighting with a support, we are looking for it to break a flag upwards since it is a 4 point of an Elliot wave, and we retraced to 61.8 percent fib zone, so we are looking for it to finish full Elliot wave 1-5 which should end above the third point of Elliot wave, but it is safe Target to take first profits on a same level as a third point of the Elliot wave. And the second Target at the top of an uptrend. Aroon: Since we are fighting a resistance Aroon is showing gain in a bullish momentum once orange line crosses blue one we are good for an entry MACD: MACD is slow to catch up on a daily chart it still shows gain in a bearish momentum, but in lower time frames we are already gaining bullish momentum. Bollinger bands: we just bounced of a bottom Bollinger band which shows we should move bullish direction. Fundamental analysis: According to CNBC in a past 14 hours we received good news which will help with a bullish momentum. Gene Munster breaks down Apple’s latest product launch and the bigger tech landscape. The launch of a new products should increase Apple stock price and a bigger landscape should give us more long term opportunities. Apple’s $429 iPhone SE is one of its cheapest phones ever. Apple's phones becoming one of the cheapest will increase sales. Which should increase Apple stock price. Invalidation: 145.76 Entry for a better Risk reward ratio: 158 Safe entry: 165 Target 1: 180.52 Target 2: 203.72
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by vf_investment
BAC Mid-Long Term Entry Play (Positions & Options)Technical Related: - Double Top on BAC (already hit) - Hit resistance level (around $38.25) - MACD dipped extremely under half-line (more room for volatility) - No further bearish technical indications News Related: - War between Ukraine & Russia heating up (bearish) - Bank of America's financials are good + getting better (bullish) - Buy rating given from analysts - 1-yr price target: $51.57 - EPS Estimate: 3.26 The Play: - Long-term position entries - Long-term option entries? - Mid-term option entries *Please critique me on anything as I am new to charting :)
NYSE:BACLong
by yewac
long GOLDGiven the fundamentals, with the current geopolitical situation, we are looking at continuation of the uptrend of the precious metal. As we can see on our weekly chart, at the breakout of the 1,375 level, after a contraction period, GOLD extended to all time high with a 50% gain. This is what we are expecting with the current setup, for a medium term trade, where we look at extending up to the new all time high at 3,000$ per once. Our SL will be just below 1,660, in correspondence of the lower part of the channel. A great 3.2 RR on this medium term trade
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Atlas-Horizon