Tesla either forming a triangle or a reversed H&S pattern
Tesla drop stopped right onto what would be its right shoulder of a bullish reverse head & shoulders pattern.
As long as this support holds, the potential is bullish towards the all-time high near $414.50 then $500.
Otherwise, a break below the recent low near $194 would invalidate it and would probably mean that Tesla is in a longer process triangle formation.
Next support would be in the $136 area.
Tesla
TESLA Should the battery production drop scare you?Tesla dropped more than -5% intraday as Panasonic, a crucial supplier, revealed a reduction in automotive battery production during the September quarter. The announcement comes amidst growing concerns over a worldwide deceleration in EV sales.
The fundamentals are obviously the opposite of ideal but the stock finds itself in a peculiar technical position that contradicts this fear across the market. The technical outlook on the 1D timeframe is oversold (RSI = 25.208, MACD = -13.090, ADX = 45.344) while the price came only $4 away from the bottom of the Channel Down pattern. The oversold 1D RSI makes these low levels an even stronger buy opportunity as the other two times it reaches such low levels this year, it rebounded immediately.
Consequently, we believe that the negative fundamentals are already priced in on October's fall and the Channel bottom buy opportunity is too good to ignore. Buy and target the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 250.00).
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SP500 - Support and Resistance ZonesI have mentioned these two circled levels earlier and we have now reached the second target (Purple Circle). This is a perfect bounce area for SP500 and may be the bottom of this bear trend we have been in the last months.
We might go down and test the support below but I dont think so. In my chart I posted earlier I mentioned that I thought we would consolidate around the yellow mark before testing ATH. That idea was false and we broke down to this purple area instead. The market is at extreme fear levels and the media very negative.
I believe we will end the year quite positive and start the new uptrend towards ATH around these levels.
Take care.
Short more Tesla - TSLATesla monthly is disgusting. Adding to shorts from $273. All the "share holders" on twitter talking about earnings, and margins and whatever. They are getting fleeced by traders. Everything in the chart. Diagonal line resistance held, abysmal monthly candles, target at least $217. Monthly RSI cross and topped. Definitely a 1hr/4 hr pop going to happen probably tomorrow, but I will add shorts on the spike. Good luck, be safe. Not advise.
TESLA Forming the new macro bottom. Get ready to rally near ATH.Tesla / TSLA is trading inside the very same Channel Down pattern that led to the April 27th low.
Currently the stock is in the process of a similar bottom formation (dotted Channel Down), which besides April 27th was seen on January 6th.
Common feature on all those bottoms was that the 1day RSI was oversold under the 30.00 level.
Consequently we regard this level as the last best buy opportunity for this year on the long term.
The other two rose by +113.71% and +97.62% respectively.
Buy and aim for a new rally on the minimum repeat of +97.62%, at 385.00.
That is both a little under the Rising Resistance and the 415.00 All Time High.
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SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter RodeoWhether you want to look at these markets like an American football game or the National Finals Rodeo/Calgary Stampede bull riding, this final quarter of the year is set up to be quite the fireworks show.
The new JP Morgan fund options collar is illustrated on the chart, but let's put it into text:
JPM is the seller of 41,000 calls with a strike of 4,515
JPM is the buyer of 41,000 puts with a strike of 4,055
JPM is the seller of 41,000 puts with a strike of 3,420
Expiry is December 29, 2023.
So if you believe that JP Morgan, the pinnacle systemically important bank in the United States, is the market maker, the crude logic is that the bank is incentivized to:
1. Keep price away from 4,515
2. Drive price towards/under 4,055
3. Keep price away from 3,420
Now, this is cool, but last quarter was an identical setup at similar strikes, and JP Morgan paid the calls it sold at 4,600~ and its own puts at 4,200 expired worthless.
A collar from a big fund is just a position and you should always remember the banks have the money to hedge, and hedge, and overhedge.
And their overhedges, when combining with the psychological effect on both retail and fund-level market participants, can produce greater profits than the simple cashing in of their ostensible public positions.
The problem for SPX and equities bulls right now is that if a new all time high was to be set, we should have bounced to start October. The meaning of this is that filling in the range of the giant June uppy candle is actually bearish.
Because it's fundamentally bearish, we have no reason to believe that downside pivots are not the target. Ergo, we have no reason to justify long trades as more than a single-or-intraday scalp until a significant low is taken.
And that low should involve the May 4,062.25 target.
A raid below that, a consolidation above 4,000, a manipulation raid slightly under 4,000 to eat stops, and then a rip back to take out "resistance" at the 4,634 double top before the end of the year AND possible run the all time high, is absolutely the trade thesis.
A raid on 4,062 happens to put JPM's long puts directly in the money and they'll be free to exit with profit.
Then, the bank can pay or mitigate the buyers of its 4,515 calls before expiry, all while making bears hate their life.
If this all plays out as anticipated, 2024 will be significantly dark clouds. Always keep in mind that 2023 opened in a straight line uppy, and year candles VERY rarely repeat their patterns twice.
What is "the bear thesis" really predicated on? It's not the Federal Reserve or such and such recession.
It's the situation in Mainland China. There's a total worldwide media blackout on what's going on inside China.
But how much longer can the Chinese Communist Party and the boundless and eternal sins of organ harvesting Falun Dafa's 100 million students at the hands of Jiang Zemin since July 20, 1999 continue forward?
The Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has claimed millions and millions of lives inside the Mainland, and that's before the catastrophes from the Party's corrupt officials itself, and all the flooding and economic damage.
In short, the CCP will soon fall before our very eyes, and everything will change.
2024 Presidential Election theatre in the United States won't really matter.
If you want to have a bright future and happiness, you need to turn off the television, turn off the radio, turn off YouTube, get off TikTok, and go outside and be in your community in real life.
You need to cut the brainwashing and start valuing virtue again, start living like humans again, start thinking like a human again.
Heaven is watching to see who can stand against the Red Demon of the Chinese Communist Party's international "United Front" parasite campaigns.
Whoever can't is considered the worst kind of loser.
But for now, fade the so-called "bottom" at 4,250 and strongly consider buying 3,985.
Just make sure you dump it, dump it again, and cash out at 4,700 or 4,800.
The happy days humans dream of not only never existed, but are forever gone. Everything is about to become stringently serious.
TESLA: GARTLEY detectedTESLA: GARTLEY detected
Today I detected a GARTLEY. TESLA's disappointing margins have weighed down the stock, but a bullish GARTLEY could cause the stock to rebound around $180.
Technically the GAPs and the EMA.50 and EMA.200 around $232 and $245 are possible upside targets.
On the downside: $180 and £175 constitute a potential reversal zone (PRZ)
Stay safe. Good trades.
TSLA | Tesla | General atmosphere in the markets?Looking to short Tesla if price should push against the red area (Sell area 1).
Reason beeing its a former, engulfed supply zone that stopped the previous uptrend before beeing taken out. It also served as Support for a short period of time.
In general if this trade should work out i see other major stocks going down.
S-L (Stop- Loss): I dont want to see a close of a weekly candle above the green line.
Target: A former resistance area that is in confluence with the 50% of the range of the recent uptrend.
Additional: The last uptrend swing of Tesla (See blue Fib levels) followed a correction to the 23% Fib before starting with the current uptrend. The 23% Fib of the current uptrend is marked with a green rectangle.
Good luck
Disclaimer:
- This information does not constitute as financial advice and is only for educational purposes. I am not your financial advisor.
- You trade entirely at your own risk
- Make your own research
- Finance and trading is evil, capitalism is bad, duh ;)
US 100 INDEX. THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW - LET'S GO DIVINGThere are looming risks that could "break" the US economy and end its current growth cycle.
Third-quarter GDP estimates are tracking above 5% and the US economy has added more than 2 million jobs year-to-date.
But there are three looming risks that could "break" the stock market and economy and end its current growth cycle, according to a Tuesday note from Ned Davis Research. These are the three risks to consider.
1. A resurgence in inflation
Inflation has made progress in trending towards the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% target after CPI peaked at about 9% last June, but any resurgence in rising prices would threaten the trajectory of the Fed's current tightening cycle.
2. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.00%
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged so far this year, hitting a 16-year high of 5.02% on Monday. A further increase in this key benchmark rate would spell trouble for the broader economy, specifically if the yield breaks above the 5.25% level.
The 5.00 - 5.50% yield range TVC:TNX was an important double-top in 2006/2007, and also represented the peak policy rate of that tightening cycle.
So perhaps we wouldn't take a break of that level lightly.
Higher interest rates increase borrowing rates for consumers and businesses and often curtail demand, leading to slower economic growth, if not a contraction in growth. The 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.86% on Tuesday.
3. Credit conditions deteriorating
So far this year, the bond market has been more concerned about interest rate risks than credit risks.
Technical graph below for US 100 Index NASDAQ:NDX says that main 125-Day SMA support has been broken as well as major upside trend, and technical figure known as "Head and Shoulders" is in progress right now.
TESLA will grow 🪴 i bought at $110Before entering into analysis pls DYOR , NFA
Last year August 📍 announced to buy TESLA. At $110-80
Recently I got exit 80% but unfortunately I found still growing 💗
And many postive news 🗞️
Present I can't confirm this analysis
Just follow give boost 🚀 to post soon 📌 i will announce wt should to be do buy or wait
Bcs s&p 500 pumping there should be a correction
Intrest rates hike is coming FED PIVOT
BTC will get correction large at any time 🤞
So better to be patience ☺️ 💛
Meanwhile I looking to take tesla with 20-30% liquid 💰 but not now 📌 soon i update my trade set-up 📐 here
Meanwhile comment ur view and ur setup 📌
Comment your stocks I give analysis from my side 😛
Tesla Just Had Its Worst 4Mo Red Combo. Nightmare, or a Chance?!Tesla's stock just had its worst week of 2023, plunging 16% on Elon Musk's earnings-call nightmare.
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA shares plunged 16% over the five-day stretch ending October 20, as disappointing third-quarter earnings and a disastrous call led by CEO Elon Musk sparked a sell-off.
The nightmarish week wiped nearly $130 million off the EV maker's total market capitalization. while Musk's own personal fortune declined by around $30 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index .
The stock is still up appr. 80% year-to-date, but has given up some of its gains over the past few months with the early-2023 hype around AI fading and investors starting to fret about the impact of higher interest rates.
Last Wednesday, on Oct 18, 2023 Tesla reported quarterly earnings that fell well short of Wall Street's expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.66, missing the consensus estimate of $0.74, and also underperformed analysts' revenue forecasts.
Musk then said in a post-earnings call that Tesla had likely "dug own grave with the Cybertruck" due to enormous production challenges, and warned of several economic headwinds that could drag on demand.
Tesla just had its worst 4-months Red Combo since June 2023, while Tesla stocks price fading after that within four months in a row, from July till October (in this time).
Sure we can call this performance like a "mini-disaster", but still it's too early to say that world's richest man became a "little baby" who is "fully in tears".
Meanwhile strong and powerful technical analysis says that the carmaker's hellish string isn't a bad one, while buyout things right here to come.
Tesla stocks were doing well in June 2023, where bearish hugs and weekly SMA (52) were broken, so I have to say, there is almost no hellish right here, just a technical confirmation of reversal that has happened several months ago in 2023.
Tech graph below is a long-term view, with further updates on monthly/ quarterly basis.
Disturbing News: TSLA Reveals Multiple DOJ SubpoenasI must admit that the news I have to share today is rather disheartening. It is with a heavy heart that I bring your attention to the recent revelation by Tesla Inc. (TSLA) regarding multiple subpoenas from the Department of Justice (DOJ). This development has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the company's future, leaving us with a sense of sadness and concern.
As traders, we have witnessed the rise and success of Tesla over the years, marveled at their groundbreaking innovations, and even celebrated their achievements. However, the recent disclosure of multiple DOJ subpoenas has raised serious questions about the company's practices and ethics. While we cannot jump to conclusions or pass judgment prematurely, it is essential to acknowledge the potential ramifications of such investigations.
In light of these developments, I feel compelled to share my concerns with you, my fellow traders. It is crucial for us to evaluate our positions and consider the potential risks associated with holding Tesla stock. While it is not my intention to dictate your investment decisions, I believe it is essential to be aware of the potential downside risks that may lie ahead.
Therefore, I encourage you to carefully assess your exposure to Tesla and consider the option of shorting TSLA. By taking a short position, you have the opportunity to profit from any downward movement in the stock price, should these investigations lead to unfavorable outcomes for the company. As traders, it is our responsibility to stay informed and make well-informed decisions to protect our portfolios.
Please understand that I do not take pleasure in sharing this information or promoting a bearish sentiment. However, as traders, it is our duty to adapt and react to the changing dynamics of the market. I believe that by being proactive and considering the potential risks associated with Tesla's recent disclosures, we can safeguard our investments and navigate through these uncertain times.
Remember, knowledge is power in the world of trading. Stay informed, stay vigilant, and make decisions that align with your risk tolerance and investment objectives. If you require any further information or would like to discuss this matter further, please do not hesitate to reach out to me by commenting below,
TESLA Hit the MA50 (1w) after 5 months. Buy.Tesla hit on the opening day of the week the MA50 (1w) for the first time since the end of May.
At the same time it hit the MA200 (1w), which makes the current level a strong double level Support for the long term.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 150 (Falling Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1w) indicates that Tesla may be repeating the late 2021 - early 2022 pattern. After that hit the MA50 (1w) it rebounded to its own Falling Resistance. High symmetry exists between the two.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Never catch a falling knife?Is the fall in Tesla's share price coming to an end? I recently published an idea predicting a fall in the share price to $215, which happened even faster than expected following the publication of more than disappointing results.
But now what?
Despite this bad news from a fundamental point of view, I remain in line with my initial analysis and believe that the correction is over.
We're coming up against a multitude of supports, namely the top of the ichimoku cloud, the 200-day, 50-week and 200-week moving averages, as well as the burgundy-red support line on the chart.
However, if we break this combination of supports, we'll probably go for the bottom of the ichimoku cloud, around $175. The death cross that has just appeared in the weekly also remains a danger.
In conclusion, although I'm expecting the price to bounce back, I currently prefer to stick to the expression "never catch a falling knife" and wait to see how the price moves at the start of the week before making my decision.