Get started

Tesla

NASDAQ 100’s special rebalance On 24 July, the NASDAQ 100 Index conducted a special rebalance to reduce the concentration of the so-called ‘magnificent seven’ in the index. The seven stocks whose strong performance this year has driven the index are Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, and Meta. The index is typically reconstituted annually in December, with additional rebalancing opportunities each quarter. A special rebalance outside the usual schedule is only happening for the third time in the index’s history, with the first two having been in December 1998 and May 2011. According to NASDAQ, a special rebalance may be triggered if the aggregate weight of companies individually accounting for more than 4.5% of the index tops 48%. Based on this, NASDAQ announced its plan to rebalance the index on 7 July. The new weights were applied before the start of trading on 24 July. What happened in the past? Strong rallies in tech stocks were behind the special rebalances both in May 2011 and December 1998. In 2011, Apple was among the stocks that saw its weight being reduced notably following a period of strong performance. And in 1998, it was Microsoft1. Performance of the index following the two rebalances does not give much to go by. Following the rebalance in December 1998, the NASDAQ 100 continued on its upward trend while the index was weighed down following the rebalance in May 2011. What it means for investors For investors looking to position themselves tactically to benefit from this development, arguments can be made to support both bullish and bearish cases. Passive money tracking the NASDAQ 100 Index will be forced to sell the biggest names on Wall Street which have made a significant contribution to the index’s performance this year. This could create some volatility in the short-term especially given the special rebalance has happened in the middle of the earnings season and market sensitivity to announcements may be heightened. Already in the week of 17 July, when Tesla and Netflix announced their earnings, markets reacted adversely to their cautious outlook for the third quarter. This also means that it would be hard to completely isolate the impact of the rebalance on stock prices. A dip in prices may, however, may be seen by some investors as an entry point. But while the move from NASDAQ is aimed at reducing the concentration of the biggest tech names in the index, the special rebalance does not mean that the NASDAQ 100’s risk profile has changed materially. The index follows a modified market capitalisation methodology which means that, subject to some limits of influence, the biggest companies will still occupy the largest weight. The index, therefore, continues to give investors a way to capture the sentiment in growth stocks, bullish or bearish. In some of our recent blogs, we have also emphasised how the NASDAQ 100 is not a way to capture specific tech megatrends such as artificial intelligence (AI), despite investor sentiment towards AI driving the fortunes of some of the top names in the index. Dedicated AI strategies, such as the NASDAQ CTA Artificial Intelligence Index, tend to have relatively low overlap with the NASDAQ 100. Again, the rebalance does not fundamentally change this. Closing word The NASDAQ 100 Index was launched in 1985. This is only its third special rebalance in almost four decades. For an index which is focused on growth stocks, it signifies how contributors to performance have been concentrated right at the top this year. For tactical investors, there may be opportunities in the short-term resulting from this. For others, it may be a reminder of the need for diversification. Sources 1 Source: CNBC report from 05 April 2011 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:NDQ100
by aneekaguptaWTE
Tesla -> Protect Your Position Now!Hello Traders and Investors , my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Tesla 💪 After Tesla stock retested the last strong support zone for bulls, the 0.786 fibonacci level at the $100 level, the recent pump over the past couple of months of more than 100% was no surprise at all. With the weekly timeframe being quite overextended on Tesla, I would actually love to see a retest of the 0.618 fibonacci level which is perfectly lining up with previous market structure. From a daily perspective you can see that Tesla is starting to create lower lows and lower highs so there is the chance that we are ready for a shorter term bearish correction - I do expect this correction to end though after we saw a retest of the $220 level. Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈 Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! My previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by basictradingtv
29
Meta - To Long, Or To Short?I have to say that Meta is one of the hardest charts that exist to read right now, mostly because for 9 straight months, an unprecedented feat in the history of Facebook, it has gone up in a straight line, and bigly. You only see it clearly on the monthly: And yet the problem with the bull thesis for a new all time high is the '22 bear raid took out all the sell side all of the way back to 2016. Although you can have, and speculators and hodlers have been fortunate enough to have had, a significant retrace afterwards, stocks taking long term lows is usually kind of like when a person turns 50 and starts urinating blood. It means something is wrong with an organ and the time they have left to live is not so long and not so bright. Even the weekly is insanely one-directional This stock will have attention tomorrow as post-market earnings have produced another $20 gain, but notably, as of time of writing, have brought the price only to $319, still underneath the July high. Geopolitical risks abound in the markets right now. Much is happening with Mainland China and the International Rules Based Order. You can consult my previous calls, which are below, for my thoughts on the situation. But the Cliff's Notes of it is that the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Gong by the Jiang Zemin faction and the CCP may soon be made public worldwide if President Xi weaponizes those sins to protect China, its 5,000-year-old culture, and himself from the IRBO intending a Maidan Revolution-style coup to replace him with someone from Taiwan that happens to be a fine lapdog to the global regime's interests. What is the bull thesis for Meta? Facebook is something of a panopticon data collection system and advertising network rolled into the guise of a social media platform where people voluntarily disclose their location, interests, likes, connections, and spend time interacting with friends and family. Meta's rebrand is to force the world into something of a Nintendo 64-level version of Second Life, where you're supposed to literally sit in your cube eating the cricket crackers under a bunch of blankets with the furnace/AC off with the VR headset strapped to your face while you do data entry all day. It's really the kind of dystopian thing the Chinese Communist Party really likes, because it means you can be submissive and agreeable slaves that don't threaten its stability and still produce work. If mankind's future is truly to return to tradition (it is), what place does Meta have in it? Meta has very little place in the future, and that's a fundamental problem, really, for everything that revolves around people living chained to computers and phones. A really notable thing is that the Chinese Government, especially under Xi Jinping since he took power in 2013, has not allowed Meta/Facebook to set up shop inside Mainland China. The world's most notorious totalitarian regime and the creator of social credit and censorship does not want Meta/Facebook's influence impacting their citizens. Ain't that something. And yet, you're supposed to be bullish on this... because it's going up. You just want something to go up so you can buy it and feel pleased when you see green, not sell, and then feel sad when you see red, red, red, and are liquidated. This is modern humanity. So here's the question with Meta: is it a short, or is it a long? The truth is that with Meta, it's gone up in the kind of straight line that makes Apple blush for 9 straight months. When something trades like this, you can never say "it's a short." Instead, you can watch for when it does become a short. And we're in the zone. Although the biggest gap has been filled, the monthly candles show that the bodies of the winning streak's candles are still respecting the range created by the February of 2022 doom candle that ended the Party. On the daily, the last five days of price action, which correspond with a Nasdaq that may very well have topped but an SPX that does not seem to have topped yet, are the most bearish they have been during the entire bull run. And so, if you want to get long on open, I can only encourage you to exercise caution. You may really have upside as high as $343. But you may also have upside no higher than $325. It may also gap up on market open and then sell off, and that kind of a sell off at this kind of a time may mean you are trapped. To confirm a bull thesis, $343 needs to be broken and maintained To confirm a bear thesis, the first thing we need to see after the earnings manipulation is for the $288.30 double bottom to be broken. From there, if $258.88 is broken, the trend is over and will have reversed, even though you may see further upside in the interim. A break over $325 and then a rejection under $288 would be the most bearish. If that unfolds, it's no longer a dip to buy. Instead, long term puts while the VIX is so suppressed might really be really, really valuable. And the problem for both bears and bulls is the $40 range that "confirms" whether there's forever uppy or forever doom.
NASDAQ:META
by LordWrymouth
1
Ford - A Cautious Post-ER Long ScalpFord is one of the richest charts among all of the U.S. equities to chew and savour for an analyst. The reason is, its relevant price action to today spans some 22 years, and we can only see it on the monthly: Notably, $26~ was a curious place for price action to stop and reject 18 months ago, leaving monthly hallmarks of potential targets And looking at the weekly: The rejection was so gappy, closed in ranges not seen on the monthly, but left open ranges not seen on the weekly. And yet in 18 months, the flat bottom formed under $12 is no cause for bullish continuation. "Support" as retail traders are taught to believe in, is made to be broken. Therefore, this chart would absolutely never be a long, in my opinion, except that price action you can only see on the daily has created a set of goalposts. And those goalposts are at the $15.42 level, which formed a perfect double top composing the July high. Before we begin, I want to warn you that trading the markets right now come with significant geopolitical risks surrounding China. The International Rules Based Order is frequently going off about "de-risking" from China, but not "decoupling," and the meaning of this is pretty significant. You should note that the propaganda machine is always targeting "China" but not "The Chinese Communist Party." Don't you think it's strange that despite the CCP's 100 years of murdering significantly more of its own people than Hitler did in general that the global Party doesn't take advantage of the CCP's heinous human rights abuses and totalitarianism to take it down? Instead, they're always going after China, its 5,000 year old culture, and its 1.4 billion pre-Wuhan Pneumonia population? It's because the IRBO wants to take control of China as the CCP falls. They won't take control of it directly, because they're not Chinese, but will install a puppet from Taiwan. And this is where "War With Taiwan" garrling comes from. It's not that Xi Jinping is going to invade Taiwan, but that the IRBO intends to take control of China with Taiwan as a proxy. But Xi can always weaponize the 24 year persecution of Falun Gong, started by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999, to protect himself and China, because Wall Street and the World Government have been extensively visiting Shanghai (Shanghai Gigafactory what?) to train Marxism. And training Marxism in Shanghai means depositing collateral with the CCP. Xi has never persecuted Falun Gong. Instead, Xi has even protected Falun Gong from the Jiangling thugs in Hong Kong, and that was the real purpose of the National Security Law and the installation of John Lee as Chief Executive. Notable that Lee was banned from attending the San Francisco APEC conference in November by Joe Biden, in that light, wouldn't you say? So, back to trading. Generally, the market makers will not leave this kind of double top in play, because short sellers love to go bigly short under them because "it's strong resistance," before taking new lows. It's noteworthy that Ford is only a ~$50 billion company. Compare that to Tesla and decide which company is over/undervalued. And all of that is just theoretical, but when we combine it with the fact that Friday's earnings were actually pretty good, but Ford dumped, and back into the box that preceeded its breakout, making it a classic breakout-retrace long, we have a trade setup. So here's the idea. Unfortunately, I believe that there is extremely high probabilities that the indexes are topping to end July or to begin August, which I go over here: # SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg Ford would probably get drug down in a 200+ point SPX correction. That means that while we have significant bullish upside targets, at the $18 and $22 levels, all of the long term price action considered, we probably have to raid the bottom under $10 before Ford can really and truly rally during an index recovery. So what we have is a long from where we are on Friday, +/- $12.80, with a target of $16. This is a pretty nice range to collect. Rather than use a strict price based stop, what I would like to say is that if Ford does not trade up and away from this $13 level within the next two weeks, it would indicate that big money is up to something else, and a long trade is either not valid or too risky to bother with. Conversely, if you're bold and brave, shorts/puts over $15.50 with a target under $10 before 2024 may equal an even better payout and risk reward setup. This trade is something of a coinflip that I only have moderate confidence in. What I have confidence in is that the MMs will not leave $15.50 in tact before they really dump it. I also don't believe they'll leave these perfect flat bottoms in tact before they pump it. So, be careful, and good luck. Plays like this are a lot better than gambling on the latest dumpster fire coin (AMC, SPWR, lol) spread on Marxist messenger Reddit.
NYSE:FLong
by LordWrymouth
Some Technical Areas For Tesla, Apple & AlphabetHi, A little guide for you about Tesla, Apple, and Alphabet. Pointed out some key areas from where to take out some profits or if you are interested in some sort of stocks then a couple of scarious from where you can jump in. Not an idea post, more like an analysis but still, it should give you a little picture about them. Tesla (TSLA) Recently the Tesla stock has been respected by technical analysis quite nicely. Several calls have worked almost perfectly and short-term targets are reached fairly easily. Currently, for me, the Tesla stock is in the middle of nowhere. My previous short-term target was around $300 and it has been reached, so I will wait for further price action. If the price goes above $300 then I will consider it as a breakout and I need to see a price action above that to make a decision. The sweet spot for me is the $190-$220. If the price reaches there then I'm ready to take it but we need to see a quite good selloff - let's see. So, if you are not in Tesla then wait for a breakout above $300 which can confirm further growth, or wait for a pullback/selloff to the mentioned lower price zone. Apple (AAPL) This year has been quite good for Apple, the gain from the bottom is 58%. In the first week of 2023, it bottomed and after that, very solid and consistent grind to higher levels - a new all-time high has reached. If you are on it then short-, and mid-term investors can think about taking some profits because it has reached to the round number of $200. The round number can act as a resistance level and the price can be stuck there for a while or it can get a rejection to downwards. So, if you don't have a long-term plan with AAPL then there is a place to take out some profits. If you don't have any Apple shares then you should wait. Firstly, how the $200 act and wait for the price action. If it gets a pullback then you can grab it from the previous highs which now start to act as support levels. These are not the strongest areas but at least you have something to stick with because to buy it from the current price can be quite a huge mistake considering short-term investment. So, if you see a pullback then be ready to act around 170 to 180 dollars, and the strongest price zone is around ~$150. Alphabet (GOOG) Technically the last weekly candle close was a small breakout. $126.5 has been a minor horizontal price level. This level has been a short-term support level and a couple of months ago it acted, and stopped the price, as a resistance. Now, we have this level "smashed" with quite a solid weekly candle and if you are interested then technically you have a light-green light to take it during the retest of ~$126. Stay cautious after you have seen a monthly or weekly close below this level. Regards, Vaido
NASDAQ:TSLA
by VaidoVeek
DOGE : NEXT UNEXPECTED BREAKOUT? $0,13The trend shows an interesting view for Doge. The big question is if Doge is going to break out unexpectedly since some patterns show an important trend signal that is able to break out in a breakout confirmation. The zone where Doge is now is the previous zone of increase. Interesting to follow and to see if we are going to get an unexpected low time frame breakout from the doge. $0,13 will stay for the coming important target. Doge is a high-risk coin and should only trade with good risk management. There are no guarantees in the markets. Doge is known for unexpected breakouts that sometimes run out of the price action of BTC. There is no reason always to expect that price action will change in a fast time frame. patterns showing only the interest and possibility of a breakout.
Long
by Goldenbreakout
3
Microsoft - Is The Top Already In?One of the key points to Microsoft is it is, in essence, a U.S. state-backed corporation, and one that is trading at more than $2.5 trillion market cap at present. You're looking at a company that just set a new all time high while the overall market is not healthy and the macroeconomic fundamentals are actually bearish. And so, we have to seriously ask ourselves if it's time to short God the top. Microsoft's price action on the monthly is curious. The price action is healthy and natural all the way from where it bounces to the top, and only becomes curiously strange when it gets to the top. Why does a stock that bounces at the right place and forms a fully proper reversal pattern, which we see on the weekly: Only sweep the All Time High? Why doesn't it raid the ATH and run bigly larger like NVDIA did? Well, the answer is actually quite clear when you overlay NVDA to MSFT: In essence, NVDA at $480-450 is MSFT at $350. The difference in price action you see today is because NVDA was relatively weaker in the past, meaning MSFT was inordinately strong in the past. Anything that reaches an extreme will reverse. If it reaches the extreme twice, it will reverse hard twice. The geopolitical situation in the world is not healthy. There is a ton of sabre rattling between NATO and the Nation of China at the moment. The western propaganda machine wants you to believe that Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan because he's very evil very super Mao Zedong++, but in reality it's more like the "International Rules Based Order" wants to use the fact that the Chinese Communist Party is rotten and unforgivable as a handle to depose Xi and have Taiwan invade the Mainland under the guise of international "aide". Why this matters to you as a trader is because you're flirting with getting gapped down hard since Beijing daytime is New York night time. If you want to be long right now you need to be hedged long volatility, or you're risking your life. Moreover, Xi, in order to defend himself, his faction of Chinese nationalists, and China's 5,000 year history, can overthrow the CCP in a Gorbachev-style coup overnight, weaponizing the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa by the faction belonging to former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it died this year). The significance is major to traders because your beloved governments, banks, and corporations have stained their hands crimson flirting with the Jiang faction toadies in Shanghai (Babylon) in order to get all the benefits they desire. Google the Neil Heywood story if you want to see a classic example of a British billionaire getting gibbed by the greatest evil of all time. Much to do before the call's key points. Before we continue, I examine the price action I expect to manifest in SPY (SPX Futures ETF) for the remainder of the month, which can serve as something of a compass for what lies ahead: SPY - A Dip Is Coming. Maybe Buy It? Back to MSFT: This is a very hard setup to trade Because the June high may have been a hard top, double and triple top or not (See TSLA July-September '22) Lower lows lower highs indicates the dip is hard to buy But the short may only take us to the $320 range. Sweeping $300 is the key to a bullish continuation above the highs Maintaining ~$280 is the key to continuing upwards at all. Microsoft has a really notable catalyst in that its earnings are on July 25 postmarket, which means price action will manifest the morning of July 26, which just so happens to be when the next FOMC meeting is. After July FOMC the next FOMC is deferred until September 20, 9 days short of quarter end, notable because of the notorious JPM Collar, which I discuss here: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' What I expect is we see a fairly violent correction on Microsoft back to the $300s before we can see any kind of further meaningful flirtation with a run over the $350 ATH. But the June high may have been the top for the foreseeable future, as evidenced by the relationship between NVDA and MSFT. Be careful. The time we have left for happy and normal days is so short you can almost count it on the fingers. When things really emerge, Nasdaq 8,500 will be the least of your concerns, really.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by LordWrymouth
1
Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching KnivesNetflix is that $200 billion company trading at $441.44 that everyone seem to have forgot about, even though it more than doubled in a year. Personally, I think these streaming services are a colossal waste of your time and money. What you're watching is the intellectual equivalent of a Big Mac or a bag of potato chips, and permeated with the things of socialism and atheism. And Netflix is really quite woke and some of the content is unforgivably degenerate. You shouldn't look at warped mirrors and shouldn't cast your eyes on ugly things, or they'll twist your heart and your soul. When it comes to the markets-at-large, I believe we're definitely going to see a correction, rather than a new all time high, which I detail in the two calls below: Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' If there's to be a new all time high, let's wait and see what Q4 has in store for us. There's a lot of geopolitical risk in the markets right now. The War between the Russian Federation and NATO via Ukraine is a big one, and a bigger one is the situation in Mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party. More or less, I believe the globalists want to topple the Party to have their men from Taiwan go in and take control of China and depose Xi. But I believe Xi is likely to topple the Party himself before that can happen. Big gaps will come that day and things will be very hard because Wall Street won't be in any kind of a risk-on mood. The 24-year persecution against Falun Dafa launched by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the Shanghai toad faction is something Xi can weaponize to implicate the entire world. Because to do business in Shanghai you've needed the Jiang Faction's approval. To get its approval, you've had to dirty your hands in the persecution and swear vows to the Flag of Blood. And unfortunately, most of the world has wanted what the Party has. Read the story of British billionaire Neil Heywood, who decided to court Jiang's minion Bo Xilai. Bo told Heywood that to prove his loyalty he had to divorce his wife. Heywood refused, and so Bo's wife poisoned him. Heywood died in 2011. Bo Xilai was ruined in Xi's Anti-corruption Campaign in 2013, stripped of all his assets, and sentenced to life in prison in a CCP dungeon. Gambling with the Party is one foot in the grave and the other in prison. Live a virtuous life instead. Moreover, they always say zoom out. Looking at Netflix on the yearly, it's hard to say you're not in the crosshairs of a savage trend reversal. And you can see these daily bars far more clearly on the weekly chart: There might be that fat gap above that you have your eye on, but you're dealing with a very long and very steep ramp in the first place, and this is in a stock which stayed away from a true gap between April and August of '22. Another notable factor is that the FINRA short volume for Netflix, while still notably low, is the highest it's been in three months and posted its first green month since April and only its second of '23. Short volume This is quite notable in light of the fact that June was one of the best months for equities in a long time Netflix doesn't have an ETF, except for a 3x levered ETF on the Mexico exchange. Insignificant except for it fell from 5 pesos to 5 pennies. What's sad is even if it Netflix was to fall 50% in value the thing would still only be worth like 30 cents. % base levered ETFs will kill you. So, here's the call. Netflix printed a proper daily pivot in mid June (you'll have to look yourself because I can't zoom the chart in for the post) and has been flirting inside that range ever since. If she makes a new high I suppose then it's time for more uppy and you can buy calls at the top and feel pretty good. But if she breaks the $420 range the next area to watch is the June low, which Netflix printed on a green candle and on the first day of the month at $393 After that, things might happen and happen fast. If bearish momentum and level breaking manifests, then where I believe it will return to is the $180 to $160 range. For Netflix to have a chance to return above $500, it will have to hold the $162.71 bottom. If you can catch that falling knife you'll feel pretty smart if you can hold the bag for a few months. But if you try to go long before the bottom you'll cut your hands and cut your hands some more.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by LordWrymouth
6
ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddonIn reading the title of this post, I'm sure you can tell what I want to say. Since the new habit is to guffaw and lmao at any thesis that isn't bullish, because "we" all "know" US equities "always go up" and a new all time high is "in store," I'd like to point out the Nasdaq already shows signs of having topped. That July 20, 2023 candle was some 2%+ in range and on absolutely no news. And yet the SPX has not yet taken its equivalent intermediate term high. The significance of the intermediate term highs that the Nasdaq took and the SPX is probably about to take is that they represent the March of 2022 failure swing. Why does it matter? Because that swing and its destruction was the trumpet-backed announcement that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 stimmie QE bull run had come to an end. And so coming back to raid it at a time when Big Jerome Powell openly told reporters at the last FOMC meeting that no rate cuts were scheduled AND that inflation would take years, not months, to come back to levels they regard as apropos, is a very dangerous situation. The thing about tops and bottoms is that whoever calls them is always wrong, because you can only see a top or a bottom on hindsight. In the interim, as they unfold, you can only anticipate that at a certain key price level, over a certain high or a certain low, that reversal patterns might manifest. The geopolitical situation is very sharp. I note in a new call that oil is likely headed for a literal 3 handle this year. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins And I note that the US Dollar Index is due for a rally to at least 108. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia The cornerstone of the international chessboard is now, and always has been, Mainland China and its 5,000 year old country and culture, which has been ruined by the Chinese Communist Party over the course of its century of insanity. What's going on in the equities market is heavily wedded to the "War With Taiwan" narrative being espoused by the propaganda machine, which I discuss in my call on Taiwan Semiconductor TSM, a company that I believe is a significant long hedge during a potential upcoming downtrend. TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge So as for this week's call, I would like to note that, unlike the Nasdaq, the SPX has not raided its March '22 intermediate high. This high at 4,631 happens to coincide with the new "JP Morgan Chase Collar," where one of the SIB's big funds sold calls at 4,665. I discuss this collar below: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' Something to understand about the big banks' business model is this: The first thing is that when they sell calls at a certain level, there is a buyer, and that buyer might be their clients. Their clients may have paid the bank the standard 10% fee in exchange for providing the liquidity. The reason the client would buy calls that JPM sells at a 10% premium is because they understand that the market will be made, in exchange, for those calls to be made worth more than they paid. Those calls were purchased at the end of June when the indexes traded circa 4,400. Why would JPM sell the calls and get themselves underwater? Because by September 29, Q3 end, they won't be underwater anymore, for one. For two, they're hedged long and are making money on the way up on the hedge. So they get to make money on the hedge, the calls ultimately expire worthless, and the client is happy because they got a big bag of cheap options at 4,400 to dump on the head of retail and Cathie Wood-style funds at 4,660. And all of this is to say that the 4,631 failure swing/pivot is very likely to be raided, and it is likely to be raided on Wednesday, FOMC day. During Monday's trade session, we will find out a lot about the intentions of the MMs. I believe they will only raid the 4,544 level on Monday market open, making it a buying opportunity to sell 100 points higher. However, if ES/SPX is to dump significantly to under 4,500 again, it stands to reason that the real target is the 4,800 ATH somewhere early in August. But I think, for a lot of reasons, this is just so less likely. Thus, SPX is likely to raid 4,544, which is to say the 4,550 psychological level, and trade over the 4,650 psychological level before Jerome Powell starts yapping. This FOMC is really significant because there isn't another rate hike until September, the end of Q3. So the trade is to long 4,540, sell it allllll at 4,650, and the target is under where JPM went long on puts and has been under water all month under 4,200 heading into the end of August and middle of September.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
Tesla -> Bullish Or Bearish?Hello Traders and Investors , my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Tesla 💪 After Tesla stock retested the last strong support zone for bulls, the 0.786 fibonacci level at the $100 level, the recent pump over the past couple of months of more than 100% was no surprise at all. Weekly market structure on Telsa is currently a little bit overextended so we could certainly see a retest of the 0.382 fibonacci retracement level which is sitting roughly at $245. With the recent drop on Tesla after earnings we could certianly see some more bearish pressure and I would love to see a retest of the previous daily support at $245 and then from there I eventually do expect the creation of a new all time high. Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint 📈 Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! My previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by basictradingtv
39
Tesla's Stock on a Bearish Rampage: Short-Selling OpportunityCurrent Status As of the latest data point on July 24, 2023, Tesla closed at $258.17. The Macro PVVM stands at 89.91, indicating a bullish long-term trend, while the Micro PVVM is at 35.25, suggesting a bearish short-term movement. Recent Trend In the past few days, we have seen a decrease in both the Macro PVVM and Micro PVVM scores. On July 18, 2023, the Macro PVVM peaked at 110.49, and the Micro PVVM was at 69.10. Since then, the Macro PVVM has fallen by 18.66% to 89.91, and the Micro PVVM has decreased by 49.04% to 35.25. This points to a bearish trend in both the long-term and short-term. Key Takeaways The recent decrease in both Macro and Micro PVVM scores suggests a bearish momentum in both the short-term and long-term trends for NASDAQ:TSLA . Although the Macro PVVM score is still positive, indicating a bullish long-term trend, the fact that it is decreasing should be taken as a warning sign. The Micro PVVM score is positive but is trending downwards, suggesting a bearish short-term movement. Trade Idea Given the recent bearish signals from both the Macro and Micro PVVM, traders might consider short-selling NASDAQ:TSLA . However, one should keep in mind the inherent risk associated with short-selling and the current bullish long-term trend indicated by the positive Macro PVVM. It's advisable to wait for a confirmation of the bearish trend by the Macro PVVM falling below zero before considering a short position.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by SwingSwiss
$TSLA -The Best to ever Race- Tesla Inc. ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) beat Earnings Report Date of Fiscal Quarter Q2/23 on 19th of July. So far so good fundamentally speaking for Tesla Inc. ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) Moreover, jumping to the charts *3D(tf); we can spot a Triangle being formed with its Apex approaching end soon. Note how the red Trendline Resistance managed to reject the price by a lofty -12% negative Moving on the *Daily (tf) short-term momentum is biased to the downside. On the *Daily (tf) we can see a Bearish Pattern having formed (rising wedge) which has broken to the downside with strong selling volume momentum above average. (VRVP's POC sitting at 230-225$) *D(tf)
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Mr_J__fx
2
The Two Reasons I Might Go Long On TeslaOn the weekly timeframe for NASDAQ:TSLA , I noticed two things immediately. - A candle closed above the downwards trendline indicating strength in buyers - NASDAQ:TSLA recently bounced off of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) Given these two reasons, I am bullish on NASDAQ:TSLA as of now. Stop Loss / Take Profits Stop loss: The stop loss of this trade is set at a close below the low of the candle that bounced off of the FVG. A close below the FVG would signify that the bounce was fake, and there is still more downside. Take Profits: All of these take profits are set at levels that were recent highs. My plan would be to scale out half of my position at TP1, 1/2 of the remaining position at TP2, and fully out at TP3 Let me know what you think of this trade!
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by fluxchart
19
Tesla 2019 Vs 2023 Breakout Comparison Tesla 2019 Vs 2023 - Repeat Megaphone pattern? - Repeat Megaphone breakout? - Repeat 10% pull back before major move? If we confidently break through and close above resistance or get a 10% pull back, it could be worth putting in place a position with a stop under resistance or a tighter stop if its the 10% pull back scenario. We could still revisit the 200 Daily SMA... and we need to be aware of that. That's why you have a stop because the 200 DSMA is idyllic but given the similarities of this pattern, it could play out and it might be worth taking a position SUBJECT TO having a tight stop under the resistance level (once we break above it) or having a tight stop under the 10% decline entry. It will be interesting to see how this chart plays out. It could hardly be as exponential as 2019? but it could be a nice move. PUKA
NASDAQ:TSLA
by PukaCharts
9
TSLA Tesla Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the trend reversal move: or the Bullish Pennant Pattern: Then analyzing the options chain of TSLA Tesla prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 280usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2023-9-15, for a premium of approximately $21.65. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by TopgOptions
8