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Teslalong

BUY THE TESLA DIP TO $900 For those of you who don't know, I shorted Tesla at $950 and am holding it for a swing trade. I'm currently ~30% in profit in a few days. However, this looks primed to go up and fill the gap above at $900. At this point, it is too soon to tell if we go higher than $900 (green line) and make new highs but I want to be hedged against my position in case we blast off. The plan: - Shorted $TSLA at $950 - Long $750 (hedge) - Take 50% profit at $900 - Let the rest ride until rejection I've always stated I don't rule out the possibility of Tesla at $1,000+ in the short term. But I will be adding short anywhere above $1,000 and holding it for a long term trade. For now, buy the dip! For those of you don't follow me on social media and missed my original short call, check it out below!
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by MWCarter
5
ridethepig | The Tesla BubbleIt's really difficult to find any Tesla charts here lately ... maybe you guys can post some in the comments (: Tesla adding another $20bn in market cap alone this morning...all perfectly normal valuation growth... right. I suggest selling TSLA on the open and expecting a -25% move to the downside. Lack of sizings against the bullish flow is allowing the short-squeeze to continue. Capitulation was the catalyst to go actively short, and in hindsight see how we were jumping the gun earlier into the move. TSLA will obviously benefit from the transition away from an oil driven economy, though this move does not reflect normality. The risk-off sentiment led to a significant divergence in the surface and inversion in short-interest structure. Initially I am going to run the trade dynamically to position for both a continuation and reversal (in simple words hedging) and then when the trade starts working we can go massive on sizings ! Ahead of the technical resistance at 900, I evaluate the balance sheet path's under different assumptions for the demand. I continue to suggest the metrics are overstretched on both deliverables and PPE spending. In my models, stock is fairly valued at +/- 250.xx but with initial targets (can't believe I am saying this) of 650 and 550. If we get enough interest in the comments we can explore TSLA's financial status and short-interest resilience to date. As usual thanks for keeping the likes, comments and etc coming!
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by ridethepig
32
$TSLA Elon Musk Calls in Tesla Fanboys Like Aquaman!Tesla saw a big gap down this morning from $518 to $494, followed immediately by a huge spring shortly after open in the first 5 minutes that saw the stock rebound to $509.50 on strong volume. So what's driving this: #1) Tesla Fanboys (AKA Bulls) - there are a ton of diehard tesla bulls out there, and after the stock rose to $550 earlier this week, anyone that missed the jump was waiting for a great entry. #2) Morgan Stanley's 'Downgrade' - there's no question analysts can move markets, so what's with the timing of this downgrade with earnings just around the corner?? Answer: The ASTOUNDING Number of Naked Puts out there. #3) Tesla Haters (AKA Bears) - you don't see a huge price jump like TSLA's without haters jumping on the bear bandwagon. The problem is, with a stock price > $500, you can't do a whole lot of hating by shorting a block of shares - but you CAN buy NAKED PUT OPTIONS on margin. And that's where the problem lies... At the present time (10:30a Thu), there are more than 48 THOUSAND OPEN PUTS between $500 and $525, and another 14 THOUSAND OPEN PUTS between $500-$490. When these put options are purchased, the investor's broker shorts the shares on the sellers behalf - usually on margin. When there are this many put options out there that expire in less than 2 days, we can start to see margin calls from brokers on any move up. Thus, bears start devouring bears. Margin calls force investors out of put positions, forcing them to BUY the stock when they close their put position. Momentum to the upside shocks other bears, and any increase in price brings more and more buyers who cover their positions. That's one of the big reasons TSLA shot from $492.17 (intraday low) to $509.42 - a span of $17.25....in THREE MINUTES. The people at Morgan Stanley know this, and also encourage the sell off by the bears while undoubtedly holding their long positions - basically turning on a giant vacuum and sucking up all the option premiums on the short side from thousands of bears that can't afford to short the stock itself at $500/share. Bottom line, there's a huge number of puts still on the books at the 510 level (8k w/ volume of only 3k). We usually see volume inline w/ open interest on the last 2 days before an option expires or is exercised. Expect TSLA to slowly trend up the rest of the day, some 'analyst' to come along and reaffirm their faith in TSLA, and the stock price to easily fill the gap and open tomorrow right around that $518 level it gap'd down from (likely followed by another run up to the $530-540 range).
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by DontListenToThisClown
10
TSLA Overheating !!TSLA overheating and valuations are currently stretched for even the most optimistic assumptions. Based on current valuations at $490, Tesla would need to be delivering 1,300,000 cars within the next 5 years. In my models, stock is fairly valued at +/- 280 but with an initial target of 360. On technical side at the top here you will notice exhaustion as predicted deliveries enter into "overpromised" territory. Of course the usual crowd will defend with China plant opening and unicorns expected. Based on current expectations, TSLA will need to deliver almost 475k cars this year and with demand starting to cough via late cycle fears this is looking doubtful to say the least. Flow wise, actively selling 490 overshoots with initial targets at 360 followed by 280 extensions. While to the topside, invalidation and reassessment necessary at 525. Tracking closely delivery numbers for 2020 but with the boat fully loaded on one side and short interest as a percentage of float still below 20% it is a screaming sell. Good luck all those on the sell-side in TSLA over the coming sessions.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by ridethepig
15
Tesla! 420 next year?Hi guys, Tesla just came down to long term support and held, and then came up and reject resistance so it looks as if we are in the same range as from 14-16. We are currently sitting in the middle of the range, I believe that the next big break will set the trend for the next 6-12 months. Fundamentals: For Tesla to succeed and see enormous growth they need to achieve full self-driving, I think they are still a few years away. The second thing is battery production and having access to the largest EV market which is China. This is coming with the gigafactory being built this year. Overall I am bullish on innovation so I'm bullish on Tesla, this doesn't mean we can't lose support and test lower :).
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by MaxxCharts
3
TSLA bounced as expected, next? Tesla updated Support ResistanceUpdate to previous analysis looking for a bounce then leg down (click) . Tesla bounced as expected, helped by an overall market bounce. The market bounce was also expected, per this S&P500 plot (click) . Dead Cat bounce or true Reversal is unclear for the overall market. Many analysts on the news are calling for doom and gloom for Tesla. So nothing new there, ''talking heads" have been saying that forever. But clearly we have a major downturn in sentiment towards this stock. The downward velocity has been increasing (accelerating). The last wave is probably not done yet, a lower low is likely. Looking for a "blow off" spike below supports on high volume. 193-195 is immediate resistance but should be surpassed. 203-205 is mostly likely bounce target, then a leg down. 253-256 is MAJOR resistance, I am selling there for sure. 174-178 is immediate support but will not hold another hit. 139-143 will be strong support perhaps after $150 stop hunt. 123-126 is MAJOR support that if approached is a big buy. . See some of my other plots and trade calls below. I also plot Forex and Crypto, take a look at my profile page . SPX bounce SPX top Oct 2018 FaceBook bounce Twitter bounce NetFlix bounce Amazon scalp Gold long Silver long Oil long Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend. But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets. Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by EuroMotif
CNBC and Morgan Stanley are idiots. TSLA is a buy.This is a fractal analysis of THE most undervalued and hated upon and shorted upon Tech stock of our generation. The constant barrage of anti Tesla FUD has gotten to such an extreme level that me and my wife had to make a friggin youtube video about it on our quite small youtube channel: youtu.be This analysis is quite simple, based on a fractal idea, and in early 2016 we had the same situation as now. The chart situation looked very similar. Back then, the stock also fell by a factor of 2 over months, reaching brutal lows in early 2016.# The same people were responsible: CNBC, Chanos, Morgan Stanley et al. Very very similar situation back then. And we all knew what happened afterwards. People shorting Tesla are like People who in the early 20th century said: THIS AUTOMOBILE WILL NEVER TAKE HOLD. I'LL PREFER MY HORSE ANY DAY! Or people who back in the 90s said: BAAAAHHH...I WILL NEVER USE THIS STUPID INTERNET THING!! Or people who now also say: BITCOIN IS A FRAUD, IT WILL NEVER SEE MAINSTREAM ADOPTION. People who don't understand what a paradigm shift is occuring now in the automotive sector, the transition from ICE cars, to electric cars, need to wake up. Shorting this stock at these levels here is madness. But, it is a perfect opportunity to get in cheap for a nice long position. CNBC and their vassals Chanos and Morgan Stanley, want to manipulate this market, because they get money from Big Oil and the old, dying, Legacy carmakers. The ICE car is dying, and they are desperate. Sales of traditional cars stay constant at best, but tend more to the downside. Whereas electric vehicle sales x10 folded worldwide from 2013 to 2018. They continue to do the logistics- S curve, and are growing exponentially. And so is Tesla. Demand for the Model 3 is huge, and the Shanghai Gigafactory 3 will soon go online. They have consistently sold x2 more cars every year than in the previous year. 2019 will be the same. A cheap model 3 produced in China, flooding the market. Production margin will increase even more. Would you have shorted the Automotbile in 1900? Or the Locomotive in 1830? Would you have shorted the Television in 1950? Or the PC in 1980? Then why short Tesla? WHY SHORT INNOVATION? It doesn't make sense. And CNBC and Morgan Stanley are idiots and manipulators. This was my anti Tesla FUDsters and Shorters rant. Enough now ! CIAO !
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by SebastianofMoon
17