TESLA Included into S&P500 Index. Recession? What Recession?
TLDR:Stocks are massively overvalued, thanks to Central Banks, but things can go on like that for quite some time.
Hello, Traders!
This is the post that is aimed to bring to your attention, That TESLA , a car company, will be added to the S&P500 Index on Monday 21st of December 2020
Stock market cap exceeded 621 Billion Dollars !
Yet, I am not calling you to marvel at the genius of Elon Musk
But to wonder, how is it possible, that a company that delivers 0.5 million cars per year
Is worth 3 times as much as the next most expensive car company Toyota, that delivers 10.5 million cars a year
A question that is shadowed by the enigma of the stock market beating all-time-highs
In the middle of the worst economic recessions since the Great Depression
Just to make it clear: I am not saying, that Tesla makes bad cars, or that it is a bad company
But is it overvalued? It everything overvalued? I think the answer is obvious:YES
Another question then how long will this insanity last
A year? 10 years? Or the Central will just keep printing money till the whole world starts resembling Venezuela?
If you want to short-do so with options, as your downside is fixed and limited
Because the markets can stay irrational far longer than you can stay solvent
Anyway, I think that 2021 will bring a wave of bankruptcies in the real sector
Which is a solvency crisis, not the liquidity crisis.
The difference? In the liquidity crisis, you want to borrow,but cant do so
In the solvency crisis, you haven't got enough cashflow to service a loan
Even if you are offered one.
And that is the kind of crisis that the FED can't solve
At least within its current framework.
So stay tuned, 2021 will be interesting!
Teslamotors
Tesla "Long"As announce today and based on the dilution decision of the Tesla to sell some of its shares of its company for 5 billion $ value what is the meaning of that for stock holders?
As Tesla is investing in Berlin and Texas for new factory lines and consecutively higher production rates, this 5 billion dollar absorption of Finance has a clear asset value and debt reduction of Tesla within 3 months. This perhaps will lead to risk reduction and lowering of current debt ratio of the company. The positive side of point of view is that now each stock has a higher value with 5 billion dollar cash flow in. Though it seems a dividend dilution for investors but in fact this strategy is a risk management approach for higher production rate and especially for future.
With this move not only the current valuation make more sense but it also will have a long term impact for holders. In addition, with S&P joining in 14th and 21th of December higher means of support for this company will be provided and will bring a positive insight especially for emergence of Electric vehicles, new batteries and solar energy products in prospective years.
Tesla - Going down soonElliott Wave Theory suggests that Tesla's rally may soon come to an end.
This is hardly mistakable as we can see a very obvious Wave 4 Triangle (in chart).
Once Wave 5 is in - or already in, a major correction (A-B-C) ensues.
Wave 5 could very well be an Ending Diagonal, if it decides to extend further.
Ideal price to start investing in Tesla would be around the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci Retracment levels .
It may or may not go lower, but trying to catch the absolute bottom is not what you'd like to do.
TESLA: About To Take A Correction, Same Pattern Repeat?Traders, Tesla is a mighty stock and has seen tremendous growth this year. As the year 2020 is about to end, we ask ourselves about the next move of this stock. The stock is in a bull trend but has also been forming repeatable patterns.
It is right now at a point where it can take correction again after completing a pattern which occurred last time too. This may or may not happen immediately or may not happen at all so we will definitely need to wait for a confirmation before we place any trades. Watch out for 18-21 Dec period on SnP500 and Tesla.
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-Vik
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The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
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Tesla will join the SP500 S&P Global announced that Tesla will join the SP500 on Monday December 21st.
Tesla will become the largest company in history when included in the SP500 index. Its quotes soared 14% on news of inclusion in the index. The share of Tesla with a market capitalization of $ 385 billion in the total capitalization of the entire index (about $ 28 trillion) will exceed 1.3%. This event will entail an automatic inflow of investor funds in the amount of about $ 51 billion.
Inclusion in the S&P 500 is in line with Wall Street's expectations for Tesla's first full calendar year of profits in 2020. The company posted profits in the first three quarters of the year, despite a pandemic in which local authorities in California ordered the temporary closure of Tesla's only US car factory. The company posted a record $ 331 million in third-quarter profit driven by production at its Shanghai plant, where Tesla benefits from cheaper labor and strong demand for its more affordable Model 3.
In the third quarter, Tesla was backed by $ 397 million in loans, helping it reach profitability. The company aims to ultimately produce 20 million electric vehicles a year and become the world's largest automaker. Tesla delivered a record nearly 140,000 vehicles in the third quarter and is on track to meet its goal of 500,000 vehicle shipments per year.
TSLA moves in an uptrend channel . Today it has broken the resistance line of symmetrical triangle. Price encountered the resistance level of $460. The next markable target for bulls will be near $600.
Best regards EXCAVO
TESLA at $700 before end of year?TSLA stock is very bullish just after the announcement of its S&P 500 inclusion.
Why $700?
I just found an old similar pattern...
Your comments are welcome.
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Legal disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. The advice here given is not a financial advice even though my excitement might make it look like such. This account shouldn't be followed by anyone expecting something from me. You trade at your own risk and nobody can guarantee you results. Even if someone could, I don't.
TESLATesla Inc. stock rallied 12% in premarket trading Tuesday after S&P Dow Jones Indices said it will add the electric-car maker to the S&P 500 at the start of trading on Dec. 21.
Joining the benchmark index for U.S. equities puts the stock in the portfolios of countless index-tracking funds, and the many managed funds that would follow suit to balance their holdings.
The late-Monday announcement was months in the works after Tesla TSLA, 9.26% reported several consecutive quarters of GAAP profits, although Tesla’s hopes for an S&P addition had been foiled in September even as some on Wall Street had considered it a “done deal.”
The Dec. 21 date coincides with the S&P 500’s SPX, -0.61% quarterly rebalance, S&P Dow Jones said.
Due to the size of the addition, S&P Dow Jones Indices is seeking feedback from investors to determine whether Tesla should be added all at once or in two separate tranches, it said.
The inclusion “is a major feather in the cap for the Tesla bulls after much agonizing around not getting into the S&P 500 in early September,” Dan Ives with Wedbush said in a note Monday. “We believe the sustained profitability trajectory as evidenced in the September quarter was the final straw that got Musk & Co. into the S&P 500 this time around despite all the noise around tax credit boosts on the Street.”
Tesla will replace an S&P 500 company to be named later, as it gets closer to the rebalancing, S&P Indices said.
Tesla in July reported its fourth straight GAAP profit, staying in the black in its second-quarter despite pandemic-related factory shutdowns.
It went on to report a third-quarter profit as well, but the index inclusion remained elusive.
Tesla shares have quintupled this year, hitting more than 30 record closes in the process, compared with gains around 12% for the S&P. The run prompted a 5-to-1 stock split in late August.
@Market Watch.
Best regards,
RyodaBrainless
"Live to Ride and Ride to Live"
TSLA: Tesla Gets Added to The S&P500Tesla (TSLA) is a one-of-a-kind electric vehicle company that is listed on the NASDAQ exchange. Just now, it has been announced that the stock will be added to the S&P500. In this analysis, we’ll take a look at the fundamentals of the company, as well as what this news means for Tesla.
Some of the information in this post is based on the analysis I wrote in March.
S&P500 Requirements
- There are certain requirements a company must fulfill in order to be added to the S&P500.
- The company must be a U.S. Company
- Must have a market cap of at least $8.2 Billion
- Must be highly liquid
- Must have a public float of at least 50% of its shares outstanding
- Its most recent quarter’s earnings and the sum of its trailing four consecutive quarters’ earnings must be positive.
Tesla had a hard time fulfilling the last part of the requirement, as it was not profiting for a while. They demonstrated increasing revenue, but a lot of their profits were reinvested into building infrastructures/gigafactories, and R&D.
Fundamental Analysis
- Despite the Corona Virus (COVID-19), Tesla has managed to manufacture and deliver record-high number of vehicles for 2020
- Tesla ended 2019 with 6 Billion Dollars, and early this year, they raised an additional 2 Billion through stock offering
- This indicates that Tesla had enough money to go endure the chaos caused by the viral outbreak
- Tesla is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credit regulations, racking up huge ZEV credits that other automotive companies pay billions to purchase
- In March 2020, Tesla has taken up 25% of the Chinese EV market, and further domination in arguably one of the most important markets is anticipated.
- With Biden’s winning the election almost being certain, it’s anticipated that Tesla will heavily benefit from Biden’s green policies.
Arguments against Tesla
- Tesla has a negative Earnings Per Share ( EPS ). Negative earnings are a red flag for value investors
- Tesla's operating margin is arguably too low, and not enough to be profitable for the long term
- Tesla's Debt to Equity ratio is quite high, and is a reason for concern, as it suggests that Tesla is a higher risk investment
- While gross income growth of Tesla for the past three years have been great, these are not sustainable numbers
- There are arguments against Tesla's management; some argue that Elon Musk gave himself too big of a compensation package
- This is concerning to investors, as the company has still not turned an annual profit.
- Most of the arguments against Tesla are in regards to their rather questionable financials, which they have now proven to be solid by being added to the S&P500
Future Projections
- While the Electric Vehicle ( EV ) Market continues to grow, Tesla's market share remains at 17~18% of a rapidly growing industry
- Tesla's gigafactories have shown unprecedented progress in terms of how fast the factory was built, as well as the automated manufacturing process
- Tesla has billions miles of autonomous driving data, which is more data than any other player in the market for self-driving cars
- Based on the vast amount of data, Tesla's self driving cars will allow the company to generate software-company-like margins
- Tesla has better battery efficiency compared to combustion engine cars, and can still benefit from economies of scale
- According to EV experts, Tesla's vehicles are at least 4-5 years more advanced than those of its competitors.
Technical Analysis
- We can look at the daily chart for some insight regarding technical analysis
- Tesla is notorious for ignoring a lot of the technical signals that appear on the chart.
- As it’s more driven by news and fundamental developments, it’s best to merely reference the technical aspect.
- We can see a clear uptrend marked by the ichimoku cloud support
- Prices trading above the 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is a bullish sign
- We can see that we have never broken below the 200 SMA since Nov. 2019
- As we consolidate in a bullish pennant pattern, bullish news is likely to cause a breakout near the apex of the pattern.
Summary
In summary, Tesla is not for the average value investor, seeking to purchase stocks at an undervalued price. It is, however, for the investors who know how to value the company by future expectations. I believe that Tesla is an automotive company to the same degree as Amazon is a bookstore. There is a lot more potential in the fundamentals of this company that many fail to recognize, and despite the short term hardships it may face, the innovative values that Tesla prioritizes is what brought the company to the S&P500. This obviously isn’t the end for Tesla. From a conservative view, I can see the stock easily double in price from these levels. A lesson to take from this investment is that if you have an in-depth understanding of the asset or security you invest in, despite volatile price actions and bearish news, the patience of holding can greatly reward you.
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Tesla long buy chartsConsidering i am long and currently hold 13 shares in my portfolio (for disclosure purposes) i have and extra buy zone for Tesla included. Normally I wouldn't sell Tesla and would just recommend buying when it goes down, if you are swing trading these are zones that could be useful. The most optimal buy zone is started at 318 and below. Most likely it is unlikely we see Tesla dip that far is still is a possibility that investors would be foolish to not jump on when the time comes. The second zone starts at 319-382. If you would like to add small amounts to your position 393-420. 421-447 is a holding zone and upwards from that is where you should start taking profits