TESLA can start a new rally to $300Last time we looked at Tesla (TSLA) was two weeks ago (February 15, see chart below) when we called for the bottom of the Channel Down pattern on a standard Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern:
This time we switch to the longer term 1W time-frame where the stock is making a rounded bottom below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 6-month Lower Lows trend-line. The last time we saw a rounded bottom like this was during the December 2022 global market bottom. In fact, the sequence from Tesla's ATH to that bottom is quite similar to the price action from the July 2023 High to now.
A common dynamic on both patterns is the ATH Lower Highs trend-line, which has 4 rejections so far. Since however the stock made a +112.48% rise on the 2022 bottom and then on the next bullish leg a +94.91%, we expect it to initiate a new such rally of +75% (if each rally is weaker by 20%) and target the July 17 2023 Resistance. As a result we have a medium-term Target of $300.
Notice also how symmetrical the 1W RSI sequences between the two are. Right now we are below the Support level which in 2022 priced the bottom.
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Teslasignals
TESLA Inverse Head and Shoulders formed. Is this the bottom?Tesla (TSLA) appears to have completed the Right Shoulder of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is technically a bullish reversal structure that is formed on market bottoms. We have already talked in our previous analysis about the IH&S formed on the 1D RSI and as you can see by the circle drawing, this is consistent with the all previous Right Shoulder formations since December 2022.
As you can see, the long-term pattern since the July 19 2023 High is a Channel Down and this IH&S is the Lower High formation that should technically start the new Bullish Leg towards the pattern's top (Lower Highs trend-line).
As a result, our technical target is $245.00, which represents a Lower High level slightly lower than a projected +41% rise (last Lower High was +36%, the one before +31%, so we estimate a +5% progression). We will book the profit earlier though if the 1D RSI hits its Resistance Zone before the price reaches $245.00.
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TESLA made a Channel Down bottom. Buy but watch these breakouts.Tesla (TSLA) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the July 19 2023 High (which was an emphatic Lower Highs rejection on the ATH Lower Highs trend-line of the November 04 2021 All Time High) and on our last analysis (January 12, see chart below) we called for a tight SL buy but mentioned the importance of taking the loss quickly if the April 27 2023 trend-line broke and reverse to a sell on a $180.00 Target:
The price did make that bearish break-out and hit $180.00, a level that has been holding since last Thursday. Even though the fundamentals surrounding the company are very volatile, this is a strong medium-term buy opportunity from a technical perspective. Not only is it at the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 7-month Channel Down, but also the RSI is forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which is a structure that has been formed on every single bottom since the December 27 2022 market bottom.
In fact the 1D RSI reached last Thursday those exact vastly oversold levels (17.50) it has last seen on that global December 2022 (price bottomed on January 06 2023) market bottom. As a result, there are much more reasons to consider the current level a strong medium-term opportunity than not. The technical target is $245.00, which represents a Lower High level slightly lower than a projected +41% rise (last Lower High was +36%, the one before +31%, so we estimate a +5% progression). We will book the profit earlier though if the 1D RSI hits its Resistance Zone before the price reaches $245.00.
If the uptrend is extended and the price breaks above the ATH Lower Highs trend-line (already has 5 rejections since November 2021), we will take it as a bullish break-out signal and target $315.00, which is the September 21 2022 Triple Top. On the other hand, if the stock closes a 1D candle below the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the 7-month Channel Down, we will sell and target $152.50, which is the Support 2 level.
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TESLA Breaking below the 1W MA50 again but NOT a BUY yet.Three weeks ago we mentioned the importance of the All Time High (ATH) Lower Highs trend-line on Tesla (TSLA) and how critical it would be for the price to finally break above it for the first time in more than 2 years:
The 'Do or die moment' as we called it failed to deliver and the price got emphatically rejected on the Lower Highs for the 5th time. This rejection has brought the price below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) yet again on pre-market. The natural zone of Support now is the January 06 2023 Higher Lows trend-line (Cycle bottom) and the April 27 2023 Higher Lows (dashed) trend-line. As long as it holds, we expect a short-term bounce and another test of the ATH Lower Highs trend-line.
If the stock breaks above the ATH Lower Highs, we will buy for a long-term rally and target 345.00. If the price breaks below the (dashed) April 27 2023 Higher Lows, we can expect a bottom as low as even 180.00, which is the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line) of the Channel Down that started on the July 19 2023 High. If the 1D RSI though breaks first the 30.00 oversold barrier, we will take the profit on shorts and turn into a long-term buy (Target at $345.00 again) as every time the RSI turned oversold at 30.00, since December 2022, it was the most efficient buy opportunity we could get.
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TESLA Do or Die moment to break the 2021 Resistance.Tesla (TSLA) is extending the rally following the buy signal (see chart below) we gave on November 07 at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up:
The price has had 6 green candles out of a total of 7 and looks to repeat the Bullish Legs of April - July and January - February. What's more important than that, is that Tesla is approaching its 'Do or Die' moment as for the 5th time in 2 years (since November 2021), it is about to test the Lower Highs trend-line of the All Time High (ATH).
This huge Resistance level has rejected the price 4 times already, always initiating strong sell-offs. The 1W RSI has already broken above its own Lower Highs trend-line of July, so this could be an early signal of strength accumulation.
If we get a 1W candle close above the Lower Highs, we expect the final phase of the Bullish Leg to materialize and that would have practically confirmed that Tesla finally officially entered into a new Cycle of long-term growth. The target remains $345.00, representing a +75% rise from the recent Channel Low (-20% from the previous Leg).
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TESLA Major bullish break-out above July's Lower Highs.Tesla (TSLA) broke today for the first time and even closed the 1D candle above the Lower Highs that started on the July 19 High. After 4 months of the bearish trend of this Falling Wedge pattern, today's move is a major bullish break-out for the long term as it opens the way for testing the All Time High (ATH) by mid 2024.
At the same time, the 1D CCI broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, which is always a bullish signal. Also this is the 2nd time that the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is tested, which is where both of the previous Lower Highs rejections took place.
On the short-term though we can follow the (dotted) Channel Up extension which after holding the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as the Support zone, can technically peak on a +19.80% rise, like the first bullish leg. That falls within the Resistance 1 - Resistance 2 zone. We will pursue the more modest target of 268.85 (Resistance 1). If the price then breaks above Resistance 2 (279.00), we will re-buy and target 299.50 (Resistance 3).
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TESLA Moment of truth for long-term buying. Will it fail?It was almost a month ago (November 03) when we called for the start of a rally on Tesla (TSLA) as part of the bullish leg towards the top of the Falling Wedge pattern (see chart below):
Today the stock hit our $250 target and immediately got rejected at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Wedge. That was on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous Lower High, the exact symmetrical level where the September 15 High was rejected.
This is a critical moment for the trend as failure to break and close a 1D candle above the Lower Highs trend-line, will maintain the bearish structure of the Falling Wedge, forcing us to sell again and target the 0.618 Fib level at $217.15. If however we close that 1D candle above, the Falling Wedge gets invalidated and with that the bearish trend, which transitions into a Channel Up (dotted lines) on the medium-term. In that case we will dump the short (low risk with the SL on the Lower Highs) and resume buying, targeting Resistance 1 at $268.85.
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TESLA Bullish long-term if this level breaks, targeting $365.We have presented our short-term view on Tesla (TSLA) 3 weeks ago (see chart below) when we issued a buy signal on the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) bottom pattern that transitioned into a Channel Up, similar to the Aug 18 - Sep 15 bullish leg, that is very near to hit the $250 target as part of the Lower High formation on the 4-month Channel Down:
On the 1W time-frame, we see that the bullish trend of 2023 is still restricted by a long-term Lower Highs trend-line that started on the week of November 01 2021, which was the All Time High for the stock. If this Lower Highs trend-line (can be also viewed as the top of a Channel Down that only broke during the Dec 2022 - Jan 2023 market bottom formation) breaks, then Tesla most likely restores the bullish trend on the long-term.
It is very likely to do so immediately in the coming weeks as the correction since July can be interpreted as the Right Shoulder of a very wide Inverted Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. If symmetry indeed exists between the two Shoulders, then Tesla aims at $365 long-term.
Since however we like to minimize risks at Tradingshot and take one target at a time, we will initially target $295, which would make a +52.28% rise from the October 30 Low, the lowest registered rise since the Bear Cycle started, and then buy after a pull-back.
Note that the 1W RSI already bounced on the Buy Zone that only failed once to give a rally, during the Dec 2022 - Jan 2023 market bottom formation, while the 1W MACD is close to forming a Bullish Cross, when all previous (three in total) occurrences delivered rallies of over +50%.
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TESLA Can it reach $345 in January based on this Channel Up?Tesla (TSLA) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern ever since the January 03 2023 market bottom. Since last week, it is staging a rebound sequence as it hit and held (closed 1W candle above it) the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) which happens to be on top of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Technically that is the bullish leg towards a new Higher High.
However, the last Higher High of the Channel Up was rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line that remains in effect since the November 01 2021 All Time High (ATH), which is essentially the major Resistance of the 2022 Bear Cycle. If it breaks above it, we can expect a Higher High bullish sequence towards $345 at least, since it would represent a +75% rise from last week's bottom (Higher Low), assuming the Higher Highs are on a -$20 decline rate.
Notice also the fair flipped symmetry of the 1W RSI after the January 2023 bottom and the price action before it. If it holds the Support as it held it during the Bear Cycle, we can even see $400 early in Q3 2024.
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TESLA Inverse Head and Shoulders starting a rally?Tesla (TSLA) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern of Lower Highs (Resistance) and Lower Lows (Support). The 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross 2 days ago and last time we saw such a bullish formation this low, was on August 21. That was straight after the first Low of the Falling Wedge, which initiated the bullish sequence that formed the Lower High of September 15 marginally below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
The August Falling Wedge Low was, on a shorter term framework, the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. Technically this is a bullish reversal pattern seen on market bottoms and as we saw it didn't fail to deliver a rebound. Typically their targets are the 2.0 Fibonacci extension only that time the rise exceeded it.
We see the same kind of IH&S emerging on the current bottom of the Wedge and now is forming its Right Shoulder. This time, the 2.0 Fib ext of the IH&S is marginally below the 0.786 Fib retracement level from the Wedge's last Lower High. As a result, we will target $250, which meets all the criteria for a new Lower High of the Falling Wedge.
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TESLA Buy opportunity in disguise?Tesla (TSLA) had a massive opening drop yesterday and almost hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since May 31. With the 1D RSI oversold at 30.00 and Support 1 (212.50) formed by the August 18 Low just below, this sell-off may be a buy opportunity in disguise. If it holds, then the dominant medium-term pattern will emerge as a Descending Triangle and our target will be the Lower Highs of July 19 at 255.00 (just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, similar to the September 15 Lower High).
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[EN] Tesla. Medium-term bearish signal // GaliortiTradingOn the 1-month chart NASDAQ:TSLA has lost its 10-session average , a chart widely followed by large traders, which may condition a bearish momentum in the medium term .
1 Month
Since November 2021 the price has been immersed in a counter-trend bearish channel with a final target at the floor of the long-term bullish channel ($100). Before that, it will have to previously exceed the medium-term bullish guideline (June 2019) in the vicinity of $175.
1 W
In the short term, prices present a series of supports that will initially stop the falls. The important liquidity zone between $200-220 and the 200-session average ($196) will help to contain the falls and will probably enter a sideways phase that will last a few weeks . It will then most likely attack the June 2019 bullish trendline.
1 D
In June of this year there was a bearish gap ($280 to $290) not yet covered that will act as a strong resistance in the future. A new bearish gap has been experienced during the day which has determined the loss of the 200 session average .
4 h
In the very short term the bullish gap from mid-August will contain the price decline. The large liquidity zone in which the price is starting to enter and the large oversold conditions will push prices to perform a pullback on its lost 200-session average. Even in this situation, the bearish gap may not be completely covered. This would open an important medium-term bearish trading window with stop loss above the gap and a first target at the uptrend line ($175) and a second target at the floor of the long-term channel ($100).
We must be very attentive to if the value fails to overcome the 200-session average on 4-hour charts. If it performs the pull-back and fails to restructure above it, it would trigger our bearish trade.
Pablo G.
TSLA - Is A Big Bounce In Progress??!!Technical Analysis:
- As you can see, wave (II) in blue has been completed and wave I in red is in progress
- Wave ((1)) and wave ((2)) in black have already been completed from wave I in red
- H1 & H4 right side is turning up
- Invalidation level 1 can't be crossed in short term
Technical Information:
- If you're a swing trader, wait for wave ((4)) in black to be completed to buy
- If you're a position trader, wait for wave II in red to be completed to buy
TESLA Is turning into one of the hottest buys right now.Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is on a strong 1D green candle, approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line0 for the first time since the August 04 break. The 1D MACD just completed a Bullish Cross yesterday indicating that the stock has confirmed the start of the new Higher High sequence towards the top of the year long Channel Up pattern.
This could be either near the 2.236 Fibonacci extension or a +80% rise (decreasing rate). Our target of $350.00 is within both parameters.
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Tesla at Key Resistance on earnings dayTesla NASDAQ:TSLA
Earnings today Wednesday 19th July (AFTER close)
A reminder that prior to a similar major megaphone breakout in 2019 resulting in 161% increase in 32 days, we FIRST had a 10% pull back off the upper megaphone resistance.
I believe this resistance at the $300 - $314 level for Tesla (See Chart). I am expecting a pause or pull back here of c.10% or more.
Eventually we should breach the $300 level and find support above $314. The trade becomes much safer then.
The 200 day is far away from price atm and we will revisit it at some stage. In 2019 we had a massive breakout of 161% and came all the way back down to the resistance level.... patience is king. If you intend on sitting through such a move, fine. If not and you want to pick a less stressful entry keep these things in mind and use my chart as helpful guide.
PUKA
Tesla's stock trend is likely to rise and fallIs Tesla's stock likely to turn bullish into bearish?
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Tesla's stock over the past two years. The top to bottom golden section of November 2021 is superimposed in the figure. As shown in the figure, Tesla stock has already surpassed the 1.618 position on the golden section in the past two weeks, and is about to challenge the next strong pressure, which is the 1.382 position on the golden section in the figure! Due to factors such as the global consumer downgrade and the imminent launch of Tesla's affordable models, Tesla's stock is likely to turn bullish into bearish! In the future, just use the 1.382 and 1.000 positions of the golden section in the figure as the long short water separation interval operation! Sell high and buy low within the range, and chase up and kill down outside the range!
We Like TSLA but Stay Away from it Now !!Technical Analysis:
- TSLA is doing a WXY structure where the wave X in blue is in progress
- We expect that the correction will end when wave Y in blue will be completed at around 130 ~ 140
- WARNING : The invalidation level in green can not be crossed but if it's crossed then TSLA will go into more down side
- TSLA H1 and H4 Right Side is turning up. So we expect that the near term will extend higher
Technical Information:
- If you're a swing trader , don't buy TSLA now
- You must wait for the correction to be completed in wave Y in blue
Don't Buy Tesla Now - Short Term is DownAs we can see in our weekly chart, Tesla(TSLA) is continuing to do the correction in wave 2 in black.
- Around $150 we expect the smart buyers as it's a buy edging area
- Around $250 we expect sellers
- Around $190 we expect a big decision in Tesla(TSLA) to follow PATH 1 or PATH 2.
We also need to follow correlation with NASDAQ and SPX Indices. Now the Right Side of H4 and H1 are turning up