TESLA Above its 1D MA50, first time since September. 193 target.Tesla Inc (TSLA) broke today above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since September 22 2022. This is a major bullish break-out on the medium-term as every time it did so inside the long-term Bearish Megaphone pattern, the price rose by around +27.50%.
The 1W RSI is on a bullish reversal bottom pattern and as the price is also above the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) of the last High, a +27.50% rise from the 1D MA50 sets a target for us at $193.00. Risk seekers can hold up to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
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Teslasignals
TESLA Is this low price inevitable?Tesla Inc (TSLA) is having one of the worst months in history, breaking below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since October 2019. The 1W RSI hit the oversold level (30.000) similar to May 2019 but that alone may not be enough to give the stock the much needed Support.
Even though on the May 2019 low the price rebounded just above the 0.382 Fibonacci level, it was most likely the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) that saved the day and provided Support. That is currently considerably lower at 87.50.
What's even worse is the fact that the bottom of historic Channel Up on the log scale that Tesla has been trading in since its IPO, is much lower. Is this test inevitable for the stock? If the current macroeconomic conditions don't shift back to those of low borrowing costs that empowered Tesla's rally the previous years, then the situation can get considerably worse.
What do you think? Is this inevitable?
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TESLA Buy opportunity until the end of the year.Tesla (TSLA) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattern since the November 04 2021 All Time High (ATH). Since then we've had two clear Lower Highs (top of Channel) and three Lower Lows (bottom) with the most recent one being on November 09.
That alone can call for a new medium-term rebound within the pattern, but the strongest buy indicator at the moment comes from the 1D RSI, which made a Double Bottom. As you see on the chart, every time the RSI made a Double Bottom around the 30.000 level, the Tesla stock started a new strong rebound towards the to of the Channel Down. By doing so it formed initially Higher Lows.
As a result, this is technically the most optimal buy entry on a 2 month horizon. With the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) just below it, we may indeed see very strong buy accumulation form long-term buyers. Our short-term target is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the medium-term. A break above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, could be a sign of a bullish extension towards the 313.85 Resistance (September 20 High).
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TESLA Ahead of the first 1D Golden Cross since August 2021.Tesla (TSLA) confirmed the Bull Flag from our last analysis one month ago and broke out of it while holding twice the Higher Lows trend-line from the June 16 Low:
The last touch was three days ago and naturally that is giving the stock a short-term (at least) boost. The price completed the 1D MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross last month but now is ahead of the critical Golden Cross formation (when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)). If completed, it will be the first occurrence since August 2021. Technically that should be a strong bullish signal but the Higher Lows trend-line plays an equally important role. If broken the uptrend may turn into the (green) Rectangle pattern that has kept the price from breaking above 315.00 three times.
This is approximately where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is and if broken we can finally see the bullish rally completing a new Lower High at the top of the long-term Channel Down. A break below the Rectangle, can test the 0.236 Fibonacci as the next Support level. Keep an eye on the MACD (1W time-frame). It is still on a Bullish Cross but a new Bearish Cross could mean a new round of medium-term selling towards the bottom of the Channel Down, much like the Jan 05 and April 28 Bearish Crosses.
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TESLA Bull Flag almost completed. Strong chances for $340 in OctTesla (TSLA) is trading within a Channel Down ever since the August 04 High, which following the rally since June 16, whose Higher Lows trend-line is intact, can be viewed as a technical Bull Flag formation. This pattern is common after strong rallies and Tesla's has been more than +50% within a 3 month span, with profit taking on the medium-term coming as a natural reaction.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line) are intact and still supporting. In fact the MA50 is about to cross above the MA100 for the first Bullish Cross pattern since August 12 2021. With the MACD on the 1W time-frame still on a strong Bullish Cross, as long as the June 16 HL hold, it is more likely to see a new rebound towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the top of the long-term Channel Down.
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TESLA on a wild rise just as expected a month agoOur last analysis on Tesla (TSLA) was exactly 1 month ago, where we stated the importance of breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line in order to initiate a rally:
As you see, the Double Bottom accurately signaled the end of the correction and the break above the Lower Highs, the start of a new rally. The rally is technically the sequence to a new Lower High of the long-term pattern on Tesla which has been a Channel Down since November 04. The price has now turned the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support and on the short-term is targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This is a symmetrical sequence by all means to the previous rebound to the top of the Channel Down last March and those similarities have helped as projected this move. On the long-term we are targeting the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. A break below the previous Low would invalidate this and instead signal a sell targeting the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
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TESLA Strong short-term BuyTesla (TSLA) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattern ever since its November 04 2021 All Time High but is within a short-term Descending Triangle since May. Yesterday the price tested the Lower Highs of that Triangle. The pattern's Support has so far formed a Double Bottom exactly on the wider Channel Down pattern Lower Lows. A break above the Lower Highs of the Triangle should be enough to kick start the next wave to the top of the Channel Down, similar to the March 17 bullish break-out. The 1W RSI is on Higher Lows.
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TESLA Buy the Powell dip. $1600 long-term target.Tesla (TSLA) is pulling back today, along with the majority of the market, after Jerome Powell teed up the prospect of a 50 basis-point rate hike in May. On a larger perspective, this looks like a consolidation after the April 05 rejection on the Lower Highs trend-line, similar to the consolidation of July 2021 after the Lower Highs rejection of that leg.
As you see the long-term pattern has been a Channel Up since January 2021 and during the previous Higher Low correction, the last rejection consolidated on a Red Ichimoku Cloud. This is similar to the current rejection. The 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) has been acting as a solid buy Zone within the pattern.
Our strategy is to add another buy on our portfolio either if the price makes contact with the 1D MA200 again or if it breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line. In either case, the target will be the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level at $1600.
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TESLA on a major bullish break-out. Possible $1500 target in Q3.Tesla (TSLA) broke this week above the All Time High (ATH) Lower Highs trend-line, giving a strong bullish signal. The pattern is replicating the break-out sequence of June 2021. In fact the whole Peak-Correction Cycle of January - June 2021 is identical to that of November 2021 - March 2022 (so far).
As this 1D chart shows, both patterns bottomed below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), with the RSI Double Bottoming around the 30.00 reading. What followed in July - September 2021 after the Lower Highs bullish break-out, was a slow Channel Up that ended violently with a parabolic rally just above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level. That level is at $1650 from the recent market bottom so we are setting a target zone within $1500 - $1650 by the end of Q3.
* BONUS MATERIAL *
See how well another tech giant, Apple, is performing after our March 11 buy call exactly on the market bottom:
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TESLA made its long-term bottom. $1400 Q3 target.TSLA touched last Friday both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). During the previous phase of the first 6 months of 2021, the price made a bottom when it hit this 1D MA200 - 1W M50 zone. In fact, as this chart shows, Tesla's price action since November is very similar to the first 6 months of 2021. The 1D RSI and MACD are identical, both phases made fake-outs above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), only to get rejected to a Lower Low.
In the previous phase, the price entered into a long-term buy when the 1D MA50 broke for the second time. As long as the 1D MA200/ 1W MA50 Support Zone holds, the 1D MA50 break-out shouldn't take long to happen. With every Higher High being a 0.5 Fibonacci extension level higher since September 2020, the next target to fill is the 3.5 Fib extension. We are setting a Q3 target on Tesla at $1400.
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TESLA is repeating April 2020! Time to buy?As you see the two charts are fairly self-explanatory. Both in 2020 and now (2021), TSLA had already made a top by early February, formed a MA50/100 Death Cross, followed by a MA50/200 Golden Cross (on the 4H chart) that practically put the bottom behind. The RSI and MACD sequences are also fairly identical.
Is it time to buy the carmaker giant again?
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TESLA hit my $600 Target. What's next? $1000 eyed early 2021.Back in October when TSLA was coming out of its 1D Triangle, I posted the following idea with $600 as its Target:
Last week the Target got hit and yesterday we saw another big green candle (+7.13%). What does this mean for Tesla? Will it be extending the rally and for how long?
Personally I believe that as long as it is above the middle (dashed line) of the Channel Up that was created after the COVID collapse (left chart), it will be using the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support and rebound on every contact.
Since March every strong rise was within a +75% to +89% range. Assuming the same pattern is followed, we are looking at a price range within $700-755, before the next consolidation or pull-back to the 1D MA50. The RSI is also near its 6 month Resistance. Once this consolidation is over, the Channel Up shows a Higher High target at $1000 at least.
Needless to say, I am very bullish on the long-term on Tesla. The right chart is on the 1W time-frame, and the RSI shows a unique formation. Every time (since at least 2015) the 1W RSI breaks above a Lower Highs trend-line, a massive rise follows. This means that if the Lower Highs don't break now, the next pull-back might be the decisive to do so and start a new aggressive multi-month bullish leg.
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TESLA Bullish Break-outPattern: Triangle on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the Triangle broke above its Lower Highs trend-line.
Target: 600.00 (+74% rise/ arithmetic decline based on the previous rebounds).
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