XAUUSD - Short Trade after Resistance Test ($3,005 - $3,010)Short after Resistance Test ($3,005 - $3,010)
📌 Entry: Sell within the $3,005 - $3,010 range if there is a clear rejection and price weakness.
🎯 Take-Profit 1: $2,985 (immediate support)
🎯 Take-Profit 2: $2,970 (recent lows)
🛑 Stop-Loss: $3,015 (above resistance)
🔹 Probability: High – Confirmed by weak volume on rallies and strong resistance.
Trade Rationale:
Key Resistance Zone ($3,005 - $3,010): This level has historically acted as a supply zone, where sellers step in to push prices lower. If price action shows rejection (e.g., wicks or bearish engulfing candles), it confirms a high-probability short setup.
Weak Volume on Rallies: Volume analysis suggests that bullish momentum lacks strong participation. A rising price with decreasing volume often signals an exhaustion of buyers, increasing the probability of a reversal.
Technical Indicators Align:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Overbought or showing bearish divergence, signaling potential downside pressure.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Losing bullish momentum or forming a bearish crossover, indicating potential for a pullback.
Donchian Trend & Moving Averages : Price is testing upper Donchian bands and key moving averages are suggesting overextension.
Risk-Reward Ratio:
> The stop-loss at $3,015 ensures protection against false breakouts.
> The first take-profit ($2,985) targets the nearest support, locking in quick profits.
> The second take-profit ($2,970) aligns with recent swing lows, maximizing the downside potential.
Final RRR (TP2) is 1 : 3,4
Conclusion:
A rejection from the $3,005 - $3,010 resistance zone presents a solid short opportunity, backed by weak bullish momentum, technical confluence, and favorable risk-reward. If the price fails to break higher and shows signs of rejection, this trade setup has a strong probability of success.
⚠️ Final Warning: Trading involves significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and never trade with money you can't afford to lose. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice.
What do you think about this setup? Would you take this trade? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👇
