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BTCUSDT: NTV and l/s ratio screams sell+Frenzy kills blockchain.Hi folks! I know I am really starting to look like a "permabear" here, but I am still holding on to my shorts despite a couple of intense days (my short have an average entry of 57.1k). I am taking no actions right now except keeping my shorts, so I guess this is a neutral post. Now, trying to watch the more fundamental picture rather than only T.A. it is easy to see why I have been wrong for so long, but also why I still might make a lot of money on my shorts: - As long as T.A. goes, the 1D Bollinger Bands have usually been a good contrarian indicator, and especially after consecutive breaks of the same bound. BTCUSD has touched the upper 1D BB for the fourth consecutive time, and that is rather crazy. - The Long/Short bitfinex ratio is extremely high ATM, indicating that liquidation hunts can only happen in the downside direction, and that the dominoes can startt falling very fast due to the total amount of leverage on the longs. - The NTV has signalled a rather massive overpricing og BTCUSD compared to the inherent network value (=the use of the blockchain). In fact, this overpricing is much higher now than during the bull-run leading up to may, indicating both that the network activity has fallen (since the price is in the same range as the tops up untill may) and that the current market is even more speculative than before the 64 to 30k drop. As for the record, I am a huge believer in blockchain technology, and my long-standing bearish view has nothing to do with that. In fact, I believe that frenzies like we have seen now only damages the reputation of the technology - this statement is based on three factors: - The average investor/gambler do not understand the tech good enough and cannot separate crap from fantastic projects, so the frenzy steals focus and money from those projects who has the potential to change the world. - The important discussions about the real values and use cases of blockchain are delayed (and potentially killed) by the frenzy, as regulatory risk increases and the average person care more about the potential of getting rich fast than to understand the arguments for using the tech. - Stablecoins most likely has a very important role in creating these frenzy markets as they provide liquidity in ways that the average person (or potenially anyone) do not understand. My view is that stablecoins should never be issued by a company - if you say that you like crypto due to the idea of decentralization and still accepts that actors like Tether Ltd. controls the entire market in the same manner as the Fed controls the stock and bond market by, then you are actually full of bullshit because you then only care about gambling and not decentralization: Tether Ltd. is a huge bank (likely buying very sketchy debt) and nothing else in practice. In short, we need to get rid of these shady actors in the market before people can really take it seriously - let´s just hope USDT collapses sooner than later for the sake of blockchain. My point here is: Do not confuse gambling (which I also do) with the belief in blockchain technology - they are completely independent in the current environment. I wish you all well! DYOR. NFA. Never take the word of others as a given, and never take advise from someone without skin in the game.
by TheDots
Where will Sandbox Peak? Since its inception, Sandbox's (SAND) price has moved in a bullish Elliott Wave sequence. Right now, we have reached uncharted technical territory, which is making it harder to find a possible peak for the current rally. Nonetheless, you can find our predictions below! Elliott Wave Analysis We can count the first wave completed at the $0.094 high. From there, the correction that followed ended at the $0.028 low, which was wave II. The subsequent rally in wave III ended with the $0.90 high, followed by a correction in wave IV that ended with the $0.14 low. The last rally that started from the $0.14 low can be broken into 5 waves of smaller degrees as it appears that the last wave V is extended. Based on the stochastic oscillator, we haven't reached overbought readings despite the strong bullish momentum, which means that we still have more upside. For wave 5, an optimistic target stands at $11.48, which is the 461% Fibonacci extension of wave I and wave III combined against the low of wave IV. While this may sound like a lot, it is less than a 300% growth from the current price. Considering that SAND grew 37,185% in about a year and a half, this target doesn't sound very unrealistic.  Looking Ahead:  If this target is hit, it will probably happen around late December or early January, when most altcoins are likely to peak.
by cryptohopper
Tether Concerns And Why They Matter BACKGROUND Tether launched in 2014, and quickly became the world's largest stablecoin, with a current market value of almost $70 billion. In order to assure buyers that Tether is Legitimate, Tether claimed it had cash reserves equal in value to the stablecoins it issued. That means that 1 Tether Has 1 U.S Dollar backing it. The US government found that wasn’t at all true. During a period from 2016 to 2018, the CFTC found that Tether held 27.6% of the value of issued stablecoins in fiat currency reserves. The Commission filed and settled charges with Tether that the company made “untrue or misleading statements and omissions of material fact.” The company insisted it always had enough money in reserve, saying in response to the CFTC fine that “There is no finding that tether tokens were not fully backed at all times—simply that the reserves were not all in cash and all in a bank account titled in Tether’s name, at all times.” Tether has also invested some of its reserves in Chinese commercial paper. A document detailing the reserves of Tether Holdings Ltd reveals that Tether has given billions of dollars in short-term loans to large Chinese companies. Tether has also been offering billions of dollars in crypto-backed loans. Some of these loans have Bitcoin as collateral. However, Tether’s lawyers claim that these secured loans are low risk since the borrowers have put up bitcoin that’s way more worth than their borrowings. Just recently, Alex Mashinsky, CEO of Celsius Network, was the latest person to claim that Tether’s stablecoin tokens aren’t fully backed by dollar reserves. “ If you give them enough collateral, liquid collateral, bitcoin, ethereum and so on . . . they will mint tether against it,” Mashinsky told the Financial Times. He explained that new USDT is issued directly for the loan, and then destroyed after so it doesn’t permanently increase the amount of Tether in circulation. Should this occur as Mashinsky describes, it would be in contradiction of Tether’s own terms of service: “Tether will not issue Tether Tokens for consideration consisting of the Digital Tokens (for example, bitcoin); only money will be accepted upon issuance.” Short-seller Hindenburg just set a $1,000,000 ‘bounty’ for details on Tether’s reserves. SO WHY DOES THIS MATTER? In May, Tether published details of its reserves in a pie chart. The breakdown showed it had 75.9% in "cash and cash equivalents." However, looking at that in more detail, only a small proportion of the 75.9% is held in cash: * 65.4% is in commercial paper. That equates to almost half of Tether's total reserves. * 3.9% is in cash. That equates to 2.9% of its total reserves. Commercial paper is a type of short-term loan that's usually made to corporations. The trouble is that Tether hasn't released information about what types of loans it has made. We don't know who the borrowers are or what types of debt it is. Most importantly, we don't know how easy it would be for Tether to access that money. Bitcoin as well as Altcoins are often paired in USDT. Meaning it isn’t real U.S dollars that are being used to purchase cryptos but instead Tether Dollars. Sure you may have used your hard earned dollars to attain Tether dollars but that money goes to Tether, you in return receive tether dollars that are then used to buy crypto. USDT volume often ranges from 50% to 80%, which is higher than any other crypto on the market. Exchange data clearly shows USDT is mainly fueling Bitcoin’s price valuation, which is deeply concerning. Bitcoin mainly rises during times when Tether is seen injecting hundreds of millions into Bitcoin. And during the periods they stopped, we saw major market corrections. When Tether released their questionable pie chart showing the breakdown of their reserves, Bitcoin dropped by another 53% and lost over $520 billion in market cap. Which was also during a period in which tether stopped printing. SO WHY DOES THIS REALLY MATTER? It’s evident that Tether is the glue holding up the crypto markets. With its potential insolvency, we could see a crypto-liquidity crisis which will create extreme levels of panic and fear amongst investors. Since Tether only has 2.9% of its supply backed by actual cash that means that if enough investors decided to convert from Tether back into U.S dollars simultaneously, Tether simply wouldn’t have enough cash to go around. Meaning the value of Tether could actually go far below 1 USD. Nobody can be sure of what will happen in the future but this is just something to be aware of. I love crypto and believe in the technology. I am just not sold on the legitimacy of the current evaluations of top projects. Should Tether go down it would not mean the end of crypto. It would just be a catastrophic event and would go down as the largest case of fraud in history. Thank you for reading. I will attach all sources below. www.coindesk.com www.fool.com cryptowhale.medium.com www.ft.com blockworks.co qz.com www.coinspeaker.com
by Nutty_Trader
3
SELL USDT BEFORE It gets blacklisted everywhere!!!! NOW!If you're not a crook and have assets in Tether, Move them to ANY coin that's half decent. Bitcoin is the safest, Ether ETH is next. Heck SHIB is even a safer bet!!!!! LOL Seriously! This toxic cryptoscam is getting delisted in Canada. To be a legal, regulated crypto exchange in Canada, you can no longer trade this fake USD. That's a effectively a double fake USD with debasement! Check your crypto trading platform. Is USDT still there? If so, you'r coins are not in custody with a very safe custodian because this appears to be regulated at the World Level. Bitfinex and the crooks can safely stay in the Britsh Virgin Isles. No heat there... LOL
CRYPTOCAP:USDTShort
by UnknownUnicorn2413721
ETH - Ethereum Analogue: A Liquidity TrapI undertook ETH Mining in a Coinbase Wallet one week ago. This morning at 7:00AM EST this experiment in Mining Ended for good. A heavy degree of Skepticism was confirmed - Crypto is a Liquidity Trap. Permit me to explain. ______________________________________________________________ "Money" as we knew it, no longer exists. The very "Moneyness" of it has all but evaporated. Durability - lasting medium of exchange Stability - store of value Divisibility - fungibility to smaller units of exchange Transportability - easily moved to and from to complete exchange Noncounterfeitability - secure, non-reproducable I would counter with a simple rebuttal - The US Dollar as a currency has failed. This is recognized outside of the United States by many Nations. The privileges of Seniorage since Bretton Woods has failed repeatedly. President Nixon closing the Gold Exchange Window was simply the first betrayal in a series of many. As a Store of Value... the US Dollar has lost 99.6% of its Purchasing Power Parity since 1913. There is currently a "Coin Shortage" within the US. Looking to hoard quarters, head to the local Laundromat. Rock, Paper, Quarters... divisibility can be challenging. Substitution effects play an important role, pre 1982 pennies are now worth $0.0307 or 3+ times face Value. They are, after all, 95% Copper, a healthy arbitrage opportunity for those with time to collect millions of them, the return on our time is significant, were they to exist in circulation in quantity. They do not. Should you take up counterfeiting physical currency, you go to prison. Your Cental Bank and Government conduct it... it's Monetary and Fiscal Policy. ______________________________________________________________ Suggesting CryptoCurrency is "Money" - I find it entertaining at best. Through the BlockChain, it certainly has Divisibility and "Portability/Transportability". It checks 2 boxes, but just barely. My recent ETH Mining Adventure had many BRE.X / Ponzi telltale signs... I've closely followed Monetary History for most of my life, it has always fascinated me, beginning with Gold & Silver Coinage. ______________________________________________________________ Prior to jumping headfirst into the results of ETH Mining, my primary concern was the ETH/USDollare "Tether" ... These are somehow assumed to be Tied to the US Dollar... in theory they are... BUT - rumors have been circulating since the creation of the "Tether" it is a liquidity trap design to provide the appearance of US Dollar "Stability" @ Par via Tether. This, of course, assumes there is $1 on Deposit for every $1 USDTether. Bitfinex, the crypto exchange instrumental in the creation of the Tether, has been conspiring for years to drain the reserves from Tether's bank accounts. The SEC has been quietly pursuing Stablecoins since the beginning of 2021, since June the effort gained decided momentum. The results at present have been interesting - Bitfinex will pay a combined $42.5MM Fine for being caught dead to rights in attempting to do what many have suggested for years. $41MM of that coming from Tether and $1.5MM coming from Bitfinex. The "Conspiracists" ( A dirty word as there is Poosbiility and Probability) were correct, Bitfinex's Tether was not backed by the Full Faith and CREDIT of the US Dollar for all Debts Public and Private. The Stablecoins were found to be grossly underfunded against claim(s). Stablecoins are after all assumed to trade at Par, although they never do AFTER conversions to US Dollars due to... Exchange Fees. Counterfeiting abounds... but how? :) Come on... you already know the answer, If not - you may be in denial. The Madness of Crowds is probably worth a read if you are still shaking your head in disagreement, There are consequences to Choice, and although the masses seem to enjoy having those choices made for them... as long as there is a payout, apathy to responsibility and the ability to demand the opposing choices of others are less than desirable. Lovely. Risk-Free, NO, absolutely not. ______________________________________________________________ Let's cut the to "Mining Experience" which was dismal at best. $1000 on Deposit in a Coinbase Wallet Deposited $50 Mining Fee to select Cloud Miner $76 total ETH mined ETH feee for transfer to Coinbase, $72.32 ETH Tether exchange to BTC BTC SELL to USD USD transfer NET to Bank Account - $986.14 A Net Loss of $13.86 for one week of ETH Mining and I escaped at the Lows of the Network Fees. Had I exited at the highs my NET would have been $937.11. And let's not forget to include the $50 Mining Fee... the Net declines into a precipitous Negative ROI. A $986.14 on $1050 Capital Outlay while ETh went from ~3500 to 3900... ***If you read the disclaimer carefully, you will discover there are a number of issues whereby your Tether may become unavailable due to Network Outages... Yeah, naw... I'l pass. This will end badly one day.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by HK_L61
14