SUPER (TH) - Elliot Wave Analysis- We are currently in Intermediate Wave (D) of a triangle. Expect a very aggressive thrust after this correction has ended.
Thailand
7UP (TH) - Elliot Wave Analysis- The future do not seem very bright here. If this analysis turns out to be right, we are looking at a new low beyond 0.20. However, if price reverse up and make new high pass 3.57, this would mean the end of a cycle wave down.
BANPU (TH) - Elliot Wave Analysis- Very likely that we are going to see another move downward (cycle wave b). However; wave b is still incomplete.
SCGP (TH) - Elliot Wave AnalysisNon-Standard Correciton.
- There is an opportunity to enter at the end of Primary Wave . According to Elliot Wave Theory, after a non-standard correction, price should retrace to at least 61.8% of the last correction (@62.25).
End of Downturn for BIGBIG Camera seems to have been through it's worst. Online sales seems to be doing much better, although site traffic is still in a downtrend. Now awaiting reopening of tourism which has a lot of pent up demand, while the camera boom 5 years ago seems to have completed its product shelf-life. Granted smartphone sales has taken a lot of the digital camera market, but accessories, travel and action related products as well as demand for visuals in the marketing industry (especially video) will play a big role. Predicting we will see a boom by the Q1 2021.
COVID-19 tracking SG and her neighbours (MY, ID and TH)Looking at the weekly charts...
1. All, except ID, are increasing in Wave 3, with differing levels of acceleration.
2. ID may be having an uptick...
3. SG's momentum is still strong for another two weeks at least.
4. Both My and TH have strong momentum to further increase. MY's situation is bad enough with TH's situation being worse.
Overall, the three neighbours have at least another 2-4 weeks of the wave to ride out; of which the northern two probable take months more...
PS. Previously described, the MACD and MACD Histograms are very useful in projecting the virus infection waves. Used here for personal monitoring and analysis. What this simple tool identified does is to allow an advantage to be ahead of the curve instead of being behind it chasing the virus as it silently sweeps across the population.
MINT - Strong UptrendAccumulation phase starts in April2020 to Nov2020, a big gap up with 1-year volume float confirms the beginning of uptrend in Nov2020 and later breakout.
1st buy at 24.00 in Nov 2020 ***which actually published the idea on 02Dec2020 on previous post.
2nd buy at 31.00 in Feb 2021 (failed to match position in 2nd accumulation phase)
OSP - Triangle BreakoutOne year forms a triangle and have breakout which enter position at 35.50, and stoploss at 33.50.
MINT - accumulated phase breakoutPrice was accumulated for 8 months between 16 to 24 THB, then did a huge gap up, and resistance breakout at 24 THB with relatively high volume shown conviction and interest in Nov2020 which provides a significant upside signal. Price threw back to 24 THB as support line in Feb2021 and likely to continue moving in the breakout direction (now 32.50 THB). However, the price is now lack of volume showing the level is not important or that the big traders aren't ready to participate yet.
Long SCI from expected turnaroundSCI has been in a downtrend for the past many years. It hit 2 year highs today closing at THB2.00, very good sign following expected turnaround with new projects (21 MW community electricity plants). Price to Book Value is at 1.00, no target price yet (will update with Q1 results). Good indication for long term as EMA 50 and EMA 200 cross.
BTS Group Holdings PCLBTS has been trending down for awhile now - It broke through a strong support at 8.80 and has opened itself up for further downside risk.
I would like to see it hold above 8.80 and eventually close higher than the yellow line above 9.60.
If it holds above the yellow line and breaks through resistance at 10.20 Baht it should give us confirmation that the stock is going to pusher higher.
However, I believe it will continue to trend down in the short term to test 8 Baht.
Bangkok residents have also been asked to work from home as much as possible, and many schools still haven't opened up and are currently learning online. These are not tailwinds that support price increases.
Unfortunately, I see BTS under pressure for the remainder of the year until some normality returns - For long term investors this may be an opportunity to load up at lower prices -
BTS also pays a fairly good dividend.
DCC LongLong if it can stand on support 2.72-2.76. Market overreaction to a spike of 200 cases in Thailand (which should be easily contained). Technicals and financial statements look good. Target between 3.40-3.72
Wave analysis on SET(Thai stock market)As the global economy is expected to recover from COVID-19 pandemic, Thai stock market has also started to gain its strength.
In this post, I am sharing my wave analysis and Elliot count on SET, Stock Exchange of Thailand, starting with monthly chart to grasp the big picture of the market.
Monthly chart
The following chart illustrates major financial crisis during this 20-25 years.
Looking at the post-Lehman crisis period, 5 wave bullish trend seems to have been finished with the 3 corrective waves; ABC as indicated with black wave and it bounced from black trend line.
Weekly chart
Price plunge due to COVID-19 pandemic ended around 970THB, where the market turned the way upward. Now it seems to form the third wave as indicated with purple waves.
Whether Thai stock market really regains its strength like pre-VIX crisis period depends on if the price can exceed lower high of weekly chart(purple dotted line). If going above the line, the market would have a chance to try record high, which is 2018 peak.
Daily chart
Looking at the daily chart, we can see that the first wave of weekly chart consists of 5 bullish wave of daily chart and it looks like the market has been forming a third wave of weekly third wave.
The next challenge would be if the price can go above the resistance line at 1600THB, which is also capped by 200 week SMA(light purple MA).
According to Bangkok Post, foreign investors in SET turned net buyers in Nov 10,2020 which contributed SET price surge. Foreign investors buy is also a key to break the ceiling.
SET - Stock Exchange of Thailand Index - Still Bullish PredictioHumbled, we would like to thanks for your support who has already liked, commented and followed us.
Your support, strengthens us, to help in analyzing the market.
SET - Stock Exchange of Thailand Index - Still Bullish Prediction
Long ETC if closes above 2.24, TP: 2.72 ETC's investors await good earnings reports today, if it closes above 2.24, the next target is 2.38, and subsequently 2.72. MACD looks goods, relative strength is quite strong. Good short term moving average upward cross. Chart pattern going according to Fibonacci pattern.
SET:TASCO long trade;breakout of consolidation.3.5X float tradedBreakout of consolidation
- Total Share - 1.57 B
- Shares Float - 1.06 B
- Shares traded at the base - 3.5B ++
- Average buyer upon gap is now below the current price and consolidation range, currently in unrealized gains
Trade:
Entry at Breakout of 19.8/20.
Stop loss - 18.7 THB - Previous low
Take Profit - 23.7 - Gap close
Disclaimer: Trade thesis only, please disregard any initial bias. Only Price Pays ;)
BTCUSD vs SET INDEX: For the Thais looking for Superior Returns1. Clear uptrend formed during the last decade for Bitcoin relative to the SET Index
2. Next target at the upper trend line for an increase of approximately 320%
3. Exacerbated with macroeconomic factors such as COVID-19 and irresponsible monetary policy from central banks
4. A switch from physical, unlimited supply fiat to a digital, hard form of money is inevitable.
SUPER growth TP: 1.30-1.40SUPER ENERGY recently increased its total capacity by over 30% with a Solar Farm in Vietnam (550MW), this should drive revenues and future profits proportionally. In the short term, some pressure from a strong Thai Baht. Technically it looks good, cannot fault. Strong resistance at 1.10 and strong support at 1.00-1.05. Long if it breaks through 1.10.
