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Theforexcast

XAUUSD - Short Trading Idea on the Weekly Chart.Introduction : Please read the full post before considering taking action. On these charts we are definitely looking at the big picture here. Once we zoom out to the weekly timeframe, we can see a clear pennant formation narrowing its price range. Since that's a continuation pattern and the previous move was a bearish one, we believe it to be more likely for gold do go down than to break the structure and risk a move upwards. It presents us with the best risk-reward ratio. However, one should always keep in mind that markets are, for the past couple of months, behaving erratically, meaning that, while we try to identify actionable price zones, one piece of news can disrupt the whole scenario. Trade wars and economic uncertainty have always been bullish for gold and we are in such a situation. A "safe" bet on longing XAUUSD is perfectably reasonable, even at this price, as CHF and JPY are still signalling a risk-off scenario. How to Proceed : Our positions here are very small, since we took this to the weekly timeframe. We are keeping a short we opened at 1348 and will open more should bearish momentum install itself. Keep in mind that gold shorts pay positive swaps so, if you can size your bet appropriately and are prepared to hold these positions for long enough, you can increase your profit amount by a good margin; Take Profit : Our take profits will be dynamically evaluted as the trade unfolds. It's too soon to tell. Side-notes : Remember that a trader's default position is doing nothing! We plan our trades weeks ahead and watch markets closely to ensure the best risk reward available. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
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2
EURAUD - Short Trading Idea on the 4hs Chart.Introduction : Please read the full post before considering taking action. This past month has been quite a ride for anyone involved in the forex markets. To an extent, it showcased the necessity of allying our technical analysis with a more proper assessment of the political landscape. While a stable market provides us with reasonably well-determined supply and demand zones for each currency, facilitating our job in forecasting zones of interest, the immediacy of moves caused by governmental agents' announcements sometimes blow it out of the water. Nevertheless, the charts have been showing us that technical analysis is still applying to this particular pair. On the charts we see that EURAUD is right now sitting at a previous resistance. It could form a double top here and this could be the beginning of a big move down. All the while, should it break, we have another resistance about 90 pips above. Mind you, though, that this second resistance would be the highest point EURAUD has reached in over 10 years. How to Proceed : We opened a short here, while a hedge long has been in place for a while. We have scaling orders until the next resistance up above. Take Profit : Swaps are positive, so we plan on keeping these orders open until we have to clear positions for liquidity purposes. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Stops here are 1.64000. Risks Involved and Key Events to Tune Yourselves to : A resolution on the US-China trade will certainly move the markets. Keeping track of a forex calendar is also of extreme importance here. ETA on This Trade : According to the ATR and for how long these waves play out, we are expecting to hold these positions for at least 4 weeks. It can take more or less time, depending on the market's reaction. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, which could further create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
Short
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USDCAD - Long Trading Idea on the 4hs Chart.Introduction : Please read the full post before considering taking action. This past month has been quite a ride for anyone involved in the forex markets. To an extent, it showcased the necessity of allying our technical analysis with a more proper assessment of the political landscape. While a stable market provides us with reasonably well-determined supply and demand zones for each currency, facilitating our job in forecasting zones of interest, the immediacy of moves caused by governmental agents' announcements sometimes blow it out of the water. USD has been stumbling on Trump's decisions on his trade war with China. The USD is also strongly correlating with the stocks markets and, when feelings are bearish , the dollar suffers with it. A possible rate cut from the US also caused the markets to price it in, all the while oil prices have been moving the CAD due to their correlation nature. Nevertheless, the charts have been showing us that technical analysis is still applying to this particular pair and we should play this wedge once more. On the charts we see a wedge forming and slowly squeezing. That kind of formation usually implies smaller volatily with subsequential moves fueled by big momentum, so all attention here is required. Painted arrows indicate what we believe is the past of least resistance for USDCAD price to move through, while dotted arrows indicate what is likely to occur in the invalidation of this analysis. How to Proceed : Our team has already opened a long on the interaction with the lower trendline , and just opened another one. We also opened a hedge short here. Should the formation break, we will follow the plan highlighting the dotted arrows. Price, however, is reaching towards a zone of years high on a stable market, so attach a trailing stop (following your system) whenever in profit. Take Profit : Our main target is 1.355. That target, however, can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances vary. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Our stop-losses here, since swaps are neutral, are on the 1.33 level. However, since it is a big support, we could possibly keep the positions and add another long there, should price action confirm a reversal. Risks Involved and Key Events to Tune Yourselves to : A resolution on the US-China trade will certainly move the markets. Keeping track of a forex calendar is also of extreme importance here. Also, beware of oil news and its own price action ETA on This Trade : According to the ATR and for how long these waves play out, we are expecting to hold these positions for at least 2 weeks. It can take more or less time, depending on the market's reaction. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, which could further create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
Long
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XAUUSD - Trading Plan on the 4h Charts.Introduction : Please read the full post before considering taking action. Trading gold has been pretty straightforward these days: we identify key zones of interest and, once it reaches one, we follow price action closely and act upon confirmation. Right now we are in the middle of a descending channel, even though price failed to create a lower low on the 2nd of May. Should it move upwards from here, we have short orders on the edge of the channel. Should it fall from here, we will see if it bounces from 1266 and we will long from there. We are favoring short orders, though, since we are likely to stay with this trade open for weeks, even, and short swaps are positive. How to Proceed : We have short orders on 1290 and long orders on 1266. Take Profit : Our take profits will be dynamically evaluted as the trade unfolds. It's too soon to tell. Side-notes : Remember that a trader's default position is doing nothing! We plan our trades weeks ahead and watch markets closely to ensure the best risk reward available. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
OANDA:XAUUSD
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USDCHF - Key Levels of InterestIntroduction : These past couple of weeks have been quite a ride for anyone involved in the forex markets. To an extent, it showcased the necessity of allying our technical analysis with a more proper assessment of the political landscape. While a stable market provides us with reasonably well-determined supply and demand zones for each currency, facilitating our job in forecasting zones of interest, the immediacy of moves caused by governmental agents' announcements sometimes blow it out of the water. USDCHF is somewhat of a tricky pair to engage in during these particular times. While the Swiss National Bank actively maneuvers the CHF to facilitate Switzerland's export businesses, the fact that its currency is backed by gold is highly sought up when risk sentiment is off the markets. It acts as a Safe Haven for investors unwilling to expose themselves to the hazards of uncertainty. In the charts we see a wedge-like formation tightening at every low, calling for a trendline adjustment oftenly. While a bearish case could be made here, it would be reckless to hold such a position for too long, since the markets are convoluted and USDCHF short swaps are huge. A long case is perfectly understandable as well, since higher lows are narrowing. However, USDCHF hasn't broken the 1.03 level in almost 10 years. We only trade what we believe holds the best risk-reward ratio available, and right now we have no open positions on USDCHF. Those trend-lines are key, though, and whenever price interacts with any of them, we will take action. Risks Involved and Key Events to Tune Yourselves to : The markets have been openly ignoring most CHF news, while keeping a close eye on the standard USD releases. A trade-war conclusion could reinstate a risk sentiment to the market and that would make for a perfect long. If it escalates further, though, we will trade the other direction. Side-notes : Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
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EURJPY - Long Trading Idea on the 4h Charts.Introduction : Please read the full post before considering taking action. This is a risky setup, so adjust positions accordingly. The reason why this trade is marked as long can be found throughout the text, although we are playing it both ways. These past couple of weeks have been quite a ride for anyone involved in the forex markets. To an extent, it showcased the necessity of allying our technical analysis with a more proper assessment of the political landscape. While a stable market provides us with reasonably well-determined supply and demand zones for each currency, facilitating our job in forecasting zones of interest, the immediacy of moves caused by governmental agents' announcements sometimes blow it out of the water. We called for a correction in EURJPY's price on May the 5th, but Trump escalated his trade war with China and triggered a risk-off sentiment in the both the forex and stocks markets. As is well known, a risk-off sentiment usually favors safehaven currencies, so a JPY rally occured and, despite Bank of Japan's incessant calls for quantitative easing and dovish depiction of the japanese economy, JPY still outperformed most major currencies. In the charts we see a broader downtrend that started with March the 1st swing high at 127.500. By then, we witnessed well-defined lower highs and lower lows, until May the 21st, when the first higher high was printed. That could possibly be not enough to call a reversal, but if one is patient to hold this position for a while, the risk rewards here could be great. The lines in the chart are a good guide to price action and this tight channel is key. We are playing this in every possible way here: inner moves, trendline interactions and the broader setup. How to Proceed : As a bearish case is comprehensibly plausible here, we are hedging with both a long and a short position. A minor long was already opened, with two more pending orders waiting in the lower trendline. Take Profit : We are playing waves here as well, but our main targets are 1.58 and 1.57. Those targets, however, can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances vary. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : The stop-loss for all of our long orders is set in the 121.500 area. Risks Involved and Key Events to Tune Yourselves to : A resolution on the US-China trade wars would be highly bearish for the JPY. There are elections in Europe soon and some economic releases. Keeping track of a forex calendar is also extreme importance here. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, which could further create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
Long
by theforexcast
1
EURAUD - Short Trading Idea on the 4h ChartsIntroduction : Please read the full post before considering taking action. These past couple of weeks have been quite a ride for anyone involved in the forex markets. To an extent, it showcased the necessity of allying our technical analysis with a more proper assessment of the political landscape. While a stable market provides us with reasonably well-determined supply and demand zones for each currency, facilitating our job in forecasting zones of interest, the immediacy of moves caused by governmental agents' announcements sometimes blow it out of the water. We called for a correction in EURAUD's price on May the 8th, and, while we still hold all those positions open, Trump escalated his trade war with China and triggered a risk-off sentiment in the both the forex and stocks markets. As is well known, a risk-on sentiment favors high yielding currencies, such as the AUD, as key investors seek not only to profit from the currency's natural evaluation, but from the positive rollovers generated by the carry trade. Australia's election this weekend was, in a sense, a surprise for the markets. The labor party, favored by polls, had an economic agenda that was considered detrimental for the country's currency and the expectation that it would win helped debase AUD's value, in addition to all forementioned reasons. However, the conservatives won and we witnessed a 150 pips gap down by the time retailers could access the price quotes 2 hours before the market opened this Sunday. The gap started to fill and, even though we are now only 70 pips down from Friday's closing, we believe that a good trade can be found here. On the charts we see that the upwards channel broke up in a very strong move, forming a sharp ascending wedge that broke with the weekend gap. A morning star candle formed in the middle of the asian session, and the market affirmatively responded to that shift and a pullback upwards happened. That's where we are now. Please note that in 4 hours there is the RBA Meeting Minutes and that tomorrow RBA's Governor Lowe has a scheduled speech. Highly respected analysts, however, believe that the market has already priced in two years of possible rate cuts. Those events, however, are very likely to move the AUD, should investors find the reports hawkish or dovish. How to Proceed : Our team is keeping all its positions from the previous call opened, with more scaling orders following the trendlines all the way to the top resistance. Take Profit : We are playing waves here as well, but our main targets are 1.58 and 1.57. Those targets, however, can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances vary. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Our stop-losses here, since swaps are positive, are depending on the RBA's decision to cut rates or not. Risks Involved and Key Events to Tune Yourselves to : A resolution on the US-China trade wars would be highly bullish for the AUD. Keeping track of a forex calendar is also of extreme importance here. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, which could further create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
Short
by theforexcast
GBPUSD - Long Trading Idea on the 4h Charts.Introduction : Please read the full post before considering taking action. GBP moves have been, over the past year or so, fueled more by Brexit news than any scheduled release of British economic reports. Still, reliable technical patterns are forming and trendlines are being respected. As we stated in our previous GBPUSD idea, a descending wedge formed and successfully broke upwards. It failed to meet the pair's previous highs, all the while it is now forming a descending wedge of its own. It tested the previous wedge upper trendline twice and now it should meet its completion (or invalidation for that matter) soon. The RSI is already in the oversold area, but wedges usually experience divergences, which leaves room still for a lower low. How to Proceed : We laddered small long positions from this level until the last support, at 1.28. Take Profit : Our targets here are 1.31000 and 1.31500. Those targets, however, can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances vary. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Our stop-losses here are in the 1.27300 range. Risks Involved : Calling reversals during a trend is always risky business, and US-China Trade wars have made the market more reactive to political news. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, specially on smaller majors, such as the NZD and the AUD, which could create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
Long
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AUDJPY - Long Trading Idea on the 4h Charts.Introduction : Please read the full post before considering taking action. AUD moves, recently, have been mostly fueled by news, while it still respected technical formations and was confined in a range-bound status since the beginning of 2019. The ongoing US-China trade wars, however, shifted this scenario and a risk-off sentiment took place in the forex markets. JPY rallied and AUDJPY suffered a loss of 240 pips in a very short term. While the trade war is still ongoing, there are a couple of factors we should consider: - AUDJPY is trading in its lowest levels since 2016, and, before that, 2011 (if we disregard the january flash crash). New lows, of course, could form, but we must always bank our bets in the most likely outcome. - A trade deal is on the table, since it's the only way to stanch the bleeding in US (and global) equities and stocks markets. - If a risk-on environment is reinstated, AUDJPY is likely to range back and even break the upper resistance, according to historical data. - This is a carry trade, as rollovers are positive. In the charts there's a clear downtrend, so taking a short is actually viable, but the RSI divergence indicates bears are losing strength. How to Proceed : Our team has opened a long here, with scaling orders going down all the way to 75.250. Targets : This long has 80.000 as its main take profit target. This can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances change. The arrows and horizontal levels are great indicative, though. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : We aren't using stop losses in this one, because of the positive rollovers. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Risks Involved : Calling reversals on a strong trend is always risky business, and a Trump tweet could dramatically shift the whole scenario. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, specially on smaller majors, such as the NZD and the AUD, which could create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
Long
by theforexcast
USDJPY - Uncertainty Rules the MarketsOn the surge of last December's US economic uncertainties (US-China trade wars and US government shutdown), JPY played its role as the world's safehaven currency and rallied back to its mid 2018's levels. After about 3 months of sideways trading, Trump's impromptu tweet on the weekend caused an immense gap, as he announced increased tariffs on China. USDJPY is now trading below the support established on mid february, and the path of least resistance is down. However, we must consider a couple of factors: investors keen on avoiding risk already bought in JPY, since it was in their best interest to secure the currency's prime quotes. So the increased tariff announcement could be already priced in. Nevertheless, this is a key level of interest. Both bulls and bears have their eyes set on this horizontal line and whoever dominates the markets from now could either set a downtrend or reinstate the previous range. We are refraining from making a call from this point, as we recently closed our shorts from our previous posted trading idea. We will be watching price action closely and then decide what to do. Remember that a trader's standard position is doing nothing. What are your thoughts, though? Leave your comments below, post your own ideas and let us know what you think! Also, don't forget to like our post and to follow us! Have a great trading session!
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EURAUD - Short Trading Idea on the 4h Charts.Introduction : Please read the full post before considering taking action. We have been witnessing increased volatility on both EUR and AUD all across the board, mainly because of the high deviation on the actual and consensus numbers when news are released, but it has still been following technical parameters. What appeared to be a breakout on EURAUD on mid-april turned out to be a fakeout, a lower low if you will, but a full reversal took place and we are now preparing our shorts with a couple of longs still beind held. On the charts we see an ascending wedge being formed, with a regular bearish divergence on the RSI, which indicate underlying weakness on the bulls' strength and a possible shift on trend direction. We don't expect this move to happen suddendly or with too much strength, so we are scaling our orders and are prepared to hold this positions for quite a while, specially since EURAUD shorts are paying positive swaps. How to Proceed : Our team opened a short here, with scaling orders following the trendline all the way to the 1.6125 price range. Take Profit : Our targets here are 1.58 and 1.57. Those targets, however, can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances vary. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Our stop-losses here, since swaps are positive, are very flexible, but set in the 1.62 range. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, specially on smaller majors, such as the NZD and the AUD, which could create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
Short
by theforexcast
AUDJPY - Long Trading Idea on the 4h Chart.Introduction : This is mainly an update on the idea posted on April 25th. Please read the entire post before considering taking action. AUD moves have been mostly fueled by news, while still respecting technical formations and being confined in a range-bound environment since the start of 2019. By this weekend, since Trump's impromptu tweet about the US-China trade wars, AUDJPY took a hit as AUD suffers whenever China receives bad announcements and JPY rallied all across the board, making for very big weekend gaps. With that in mind, the Reserve Bank of Australia is set to decide whether to cut its interest rates down to 1.25% or to keep them at 1.5% in a couple of hours from now. A lot of speculation for both biases can be found in abundance over the Forex News outlets. Said that, we trade the most likely scenario and we trade what we see. The path of least resistance is status quo , and as a correction on JPY is due, we believe a long order should be placed. If the news come out bearish, our trading plan will follow the dotted arrows. How to Proceed : A long was opened here. Take Profit : This long has 80.000 as its main take profit target. This can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances change. The arrows and horizontal levels are great indicative, though. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Our stop-losses here are 77.000. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, specially on smaller majors, such as the NZD and the AUD, which could create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
Long
by theforexcast
EURJPY - Long Trading Idea on the 4h Charts.Introduction : We are calling this right on the opening of the markets, so tread carefully and analyze properly. After last December's US economic uncertainties (US-China trade wars and US government shutdown), JPY played its role as the world's safehaven currency and rallied back to its mid 2017's levels. Since January this year we've been witnessing an indecision as to whether it'll continue its move downwards or pullback to its previous 130.000 levels on the FX:EURJPY . Price was strongly rejected from 127.500 and bounced up from 123.500, as such downwards move was also fueled by a substantial EUR dump. Even though this was nourished by both currencies' behaviour, it failed to create a higher low and thus confirmed the suspicions that we now face a ranging market, instead of a strong trending one. Strong Update from Our Last Short Idea : President Trump tweeted about an increase in tariffs from Chinese products this weekend, causing the market to gap tremendously. However, EURJPY sat precisely on the support. As price usually follows the path of least resistance, we expect a bounce from this 123.600 levels, as it'd take big and momentum volume to break the support. We trade what is usually more likely to occur, and with the best risk/rewards involved. How to Proceed : Our team has already opened a long position on this level Take Profit : Our take profit target is 123.000. They can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances change. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis): Our stop-loss here is 123. Side-notes: Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, specially on smaller majors, such as the NZD and the AUD, which could create instability and affect FX:EURJPY by correlation and arbitrage moves. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Have a great trading session!
Long
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NZDCAD - Long Trading Idea on the 4h Charts.Introduction : This is mostly an update on a trading idea we published a couple of weeks ago. As it's clear on the 4h chart, FX:NZDCAD has been comfortably ranging between 0.89000 to 0.93000 since mid November of 2018. Although it is a minor pair, meaning its moves are fundamentally based on each currency's performance across the whole forex markets (particularly against the US dollar), an in-depth market analysis suggests that this range might continue for a while, since volume is still low. As we previously suggested in the last trading idea, it would continue down from the price level we found ourselves in. It did, creating a narrow downwards channel (dotted trendlines) that, even though suggested a continuation pattern, bounced comfortably from the support and broke the channel. Following a couple of NZD bearish news cycles and a market-perceived Hawkish FOMC meeting, it retested the channel from the other side, was rejected and is now in a thin range on the 4h charts. As there is still no sight of a strong trend forming on either NZD or CAD to make us believe this ranging condition is changing anytime soon, a long trade here represents the best risk-reward ratio for us to take. How to Proceed : Our team has already opened a long position on this level, with another pending long order on the support level, at 0.88800. Take Profit : Our take profit targets are 0.91200 and 0.92250, both presented on the charts as resistances. They can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances alter. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Our stop-losses here are below this ranging structure, in the 0.88600 levels. Remember that price tend to repeat itself over large timeframes and that a too tighten stop-loss, while seemingly more risk-verse and safe, could prevent you from taking profit on the longer term. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Have a great trading session!
Long
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USDCHF - Short Trading Idea on the Daily ChartIntroduction : This is an update on a trade idea we posted 12 days ago. The market moved strongly against us in a continuation of the dollar rally. Even though we had set before a stop-loss on the 1.02 levels, we stretched this up until 1.02500 because price stalled heavily in that area. While not being a precise rejection with a full momentum-move downwards, this current price seems very attractive to CHF buyers who are finding it uninteresting to wait for it go up even higher. How to proceed : We have open shorts from our previous analysis and while we rode this narrow range in a bit of a scalping trade, we will try to get the best entry from here until 1.02200. Patience is key in slow-moving markets. Take profit : Our first take profit is an interaction with the first dotted trendline. The next level should be the interaction with the second trendline and the rest will be set with a 40 pips trailing stop-loss. Move stops to profit once at least 25-50 pips in profit. Stop-loss (invalidation of analysis) : A stop-loss for all orders is set on 1.02500. By then we will reavaluate the market conditions and make decisions accordingly. Those targets, however, can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances vary. Side-notes : Switzerland has an export-based economy that relies heavily on its monetary policy to maintain competitivity on international markets. The SNB (Swiss National Bank) actively interferes in its currency price, often undermining it to enhance the country's exports. A correction is due and this is the precise moment we stand on. Please leave your comments below and don't forget to follow us! Have a great trading session!
Short
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GBPUSD - Long Trading Idea on the 4h Charts.Introduction : Please read the full post before considering taking action. GBP moves have been, over the past year or so, fueled more by Brexit news than any scheduled release of British economic reports. While GBP has been taking bearish pressure and USD has been overperforming for the past couple of weeks, we are taking a cautious approach here and will try to profit from a market correction. Charts here are tricky. From the previous high in mid-March, we are witnessing the formation of a descending wedge, which could see its completion before the breakout upwards on the 1.28 level. A rounding bottom got formed recently, indicating a possible trend reversal, all the while the hidden bearish divergence in the RSI reads a "sell the rallies" situation. Should it continue upwards, we will probably see regular bearish divergences on the RSI all the way to the top, which usually occurs in these cases. How to Proceed : We opened a long at the 1.29 level, with scaling orders following the trendline all the way to the 1.28 price range. Take Profit : Our targets here are 1.31 and 1.32. Those targets, however, can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances vary. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Our stop-losses here are in the 1.27700 range. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, specially on smaller majors, such as the NZD and the AUD, which could create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
Long
by theforexcast
NZDUSD - Long Trading Idea on the Daily Chart.Introduction : Please read the full post before considering taking action. NZD has been the worst performing currency of all the majors for over two weeks, and it is risky business to try and call a reversal when the scenario is this bearish. However, just as AUD was planning a breakout up in its bullish moves, it was discouraged by mildly worse-than-predicted RBA reports and it gave back all its gains in a matter or hours, only to be confined once more to the previous ranges where it was being traded. Just as hard as it is to call a spot-on reversal, breakouts require substantial momentum and market volatility. In the charts we see that NZDUSD just reached the first of its key support levels, even though it touched it before during the January 3rd flash-crash. The RSI is pretty much oversold, but a double bottom on it could confirm a descending trend that could break the second support and keep going. The overall bearishness is also fueled by an expectation of RBNZ rate cuts and it could plunge NZD down further. However, this thursday (April 25th), the New Zealand's exports/imports numbers will come out and they are very likely to rapidly move the markets, no matter which way. It isn't rare to see a currency sitting on such critical levels (such as a support or a resistance) on the brink of the divulgence of such reports. Although the idea is marked as a long, check below to see how we are placing our orders and our general strategy. How to Proceed : Price is already on the oversold area by the RSI on the daily chart. We opened a long here, but with a tight stop loss. If it breaks down with lots of momentum, a short order will trigger and its take profit target is set on the next support level. By then we will analyze price action, but the most likely scenario is trying to do the same thing. A tight long order with a short in hand in case it continues down. Take Profit : This first long's take profit targets would be on the middle of the previous range, 0.6835, as marked by the dotted horizontal line. If a short is to be opened, its target is the 0.64300 support zone. Check the arrows to understand the predicted moves. Those targets, howerver, can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances vary. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : See the previous section for that. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, specially on smaller majors, such as the NZD and the AUD, which could create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
Long
by theforexcast
AUDJPY - Long Trading Idea on the 4h Chart.Introduction : We have been long playing this range-bound channel, with fast moves fueled by news from both currencies, but mainly from AUD. We can see two bearish wedges forming with the second one being nearly-invalidated by reports that pushed AUD prices further up across the entire board. Price struggled above the main resistance and, as soon as it broke the dotted trendline, shorts were placed. Sudden bearish AUD news moved it down even further, and now we are preparing for price corrections and the reversal of the trend. Although the idea is marked as a long, check below to see how we place our orders and our general strategy. How to Proceed : Price is already on extreme oversold levels on the RSI on the 4h charts. Our best guess here is that the correction will move it up a little, only to go down further and keep on the oversold readings until it reaches the support and/or reverses. Both a long and a short were opened here. We think it will continue down and we will keep adding scaling long orders until it reaches support, when we expect a full bounce to the main resistance, with perhaps a breakout. Take Profit : We plan on closing our shorts by 77.700 levels. The longs have 80.000 and 80.500 as their main take profit targets. They can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances change. The arrows and horizontal levels are great indicative, though. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Our stop-losses here are 77.000. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, specially on smaller majors, such as the NZD and the AUD, which could create instability. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Feel free to send us a direct message with any doubts you might have and experience a great trading session!
Long
by theforexcast
USDJPY - Short Trading Idea on the 4h Chart.Introduction : After last December's US economic uncertainties (US-China trade wars and US government shutdown), JPY played its role as the world's safehaven currency and rallied back to its mid 2018's levels. Since January this year we've been witnessing an indecision as to whether it'll continue its move downwards or pullback to its previous 114.000 levels on the FX:USDJPY. Price was rejected at this 112.000 level and bounced up from 109.750. Even though this was nourished by both currencies' behaviour, it failed to create a higher low and thus confirmed the suspicions that we now face a ranging market, instead of a strong trending one. Price usually follows the path of least resistance, so a bounce from this same 112.000 level is expected, as it'd take strong news/big volume to break the resistance. And the support, for that matter. We trade what is usually more likely to occur, and with the best risk/rewards involved. What we see in the charts is an upwards channel with a slight bearish wedge touch to it. Price has been struggling in this level for almost a week, and JPY holidays might cause it to stall further, but it's a good trading opportunity nevertheless. This lack of movement also caused the RSI to go low, which might suggest a shift in trend. How to Proceed : Our team has already opened a short position on this level, with 2 additional scaling orders until 112.2. Take Profit : Our take profit targets are 111.000 and 110.000. They can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances change. The arrows and horizontal levels are great indicative, though. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Our stop-losses here are 112.500. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, specially on smaller majors, such as the NZD and the AUD, which could create instability and affect FX:USDJPY by correlation and arbitrage moves. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Have a great trading session!
Short
by theforexcast
NZDCAD - Long Trading Idea on the 4h ChartIntroduction : As it's clear on the 4h chart, FX:NZDCAD has been comfortably ranging between 0.89000 to 0.93000 since mid November of 2018. Although it is a minor pair, meaning its moves are fundamentally based on each currency's performance across the whole forex markets (particularly against the US dollar), an in-depth market analysis suggests that this range might continue for a while, since volume is still low. Bearish NZD reports this week and the pair's instant rejection at the very support horizontal line (as notably visible on the chart) corroborates with this idea. While no breaking news or a strong trend present themselves to alter this condition, this is a good long opportunity for us to profit on. What we see on the RSI presented below is a regular bullish divergence, meaning that, while price could find a lower low and the indicator shows a higher low, the selling pressure is being exhausted and we could witness a potential change in direction. How to Proceed : Our team has already opened a short position on this level, with 3 additional scaling orders from 0.89500 until 0.89000. A hedge short was opened, as it's our usual strategy and it will be closed should price break above this very level, and it has a 25 pips trailing stop-loss attached to it. We might observe some sideways move before definitive action takes place and it should not scare traders into hastingly closing their positions. A double bottom could form on the key support. Adjust accordingly. Take Profit : Our take profit targets are 0.91200 and 0.92250, both presented on the charts as resistances. They can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances alter. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Our stop-losses here are below this ranging structure, in the 0.88600 levels. Remember that price tend to repeat itself over large timeframes and that a too tighten stop-loss, while seemingly more risk-verse and safe, could prevent you from taking profit on the longer term. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Have a great trading session!
Long
by theforexcast
EURUSD - Short Trading Idea on the Daily ChartIntroduction : As we can see on the daily charts, FX:EURUSD sat on a 500pips range from May to November, when a loose bearish wedge formation concluded and, from an unsuccesful attempt to break upwards, a downtrend initiated and we are currently in it. The rally on March the 20th was due to the FED's announcement that it would maintain its interest rates, at a time when a parcel of the markets expected some sort of quantitative tightening, and they let go of their positions, causing the FX:EURUSD to hike up to 1.14500 levels. It was corrected on the very next days and, even though it failed to create a lower low on the last journey to the support, the overall bearishness of the charts are undeniable. We trade what we see. How to Proceed : Our team has already opened a short position on this level, with 3 additional scaling orders from 1.13200 until 1.13800. A hedge long was opened, as it's our usual strategy and it will be closed should price break below the 1.12800 levels and it has a 25 pips trailing stop-loss attached to it. We could observe some sideways move before definitive action takes place and it should not scare traders away. Just keep in mind the key horizontal levels and all interactions with the trendlines. Take Profit : Our take profit targets are in the 1.12200-1.11800 range. They can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances alter. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Our stop-losses here are between the 1.14000 and 1.14500 range. Remember that price tend to repeat itself over large timeframes and that a too tighten stop-loss, while seemingly more risk-verse and safe, could prevent you from taking profit on the longer term. Adjust position sizes accordingly. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, specially on smaller majors, such as the NZD and the AUD, which could create instability and affect FX:EURUSD by correlation and arbitrage moves. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Also keep a forex calendar at close hand, since EUR events and news are scheduled for the following days, particularly PMI in the EUR zone. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Have a great trading session!
Short
by theforexcast
EURJPY - Short Trading Idea on the H4 charts.Introduction : After last December's US economic uncertainties (US-China trade wars and US government shutdown), JPY played its role as the world's safehaven currency and rallied back to its mid 2017's levels. Since January this year we've been witnessing an indecision as to whether it'll continue its move downwards or pullback to its previous 130.000 levels on the FX:EURJPY . Price was strongly rejected from 127.500 and bounced up from 123.500, as such downwards move was also fueled by a substantial EUR dump. Even though this was nourished by both currencies' behaviour, it failed to create a higher low and thus confirmed the suspicions that we now face a ranging market, instead of a strong trending one. Price usually follows the path of least resistance, so a bounce from the same 127.500 level is expected, as it'd take strong news/big volume to break the resistance. And the support, for that matter. We trade what is usually more likely to occur, and with the best risk/rewards involved. What we see in the charts is a failed bearish wedge (broken by weak JPY news) and the lower trendline is possibly creating an upwards channel alongside the superior dotted, unconfirmed trendline. Most recently, price is struggling between a thin, narrow 40 pips range for almost a week. It could continue that way since we have very long Japanese holidays coming up. RSI is diverging and creating new lows at the same price levels, indicating a possible higher high to its 80 levels or, if it breaks downwards now, a continuation move down. How to Proceed : Our team has already opened a short position on this level, with 3 additional scaling orders from 126.8 until 127.5. A hedge long was opened, and it will be closed should price break below the 126.3 level and it has a 45 pips trailing stop-loss attached to it. Take Profit : Our take profit targets are 126.000,125.000, 124.000. They can be dynamically changed, i.e., according to live price action, should circumstances change. The arrows and horizontal levels are great indicative, though. Stop-loss (Invalidation of Analysis) : Our stop-losses here are between the 127.600 and 128.000 range. Side-notes : Please keep in mind that the markets have been reacting strongly to news these days, specially on smaller majors, such as the NZD and the AUD, which could create instability and affect FX:EURJPY by correlation and arbitrage moves. We are trading the whole forex system here, not only a pair. These positions should be watched closely. Please leave your comments below to inspire us to continue our work and don't forget to follow us! Have a great trading session!
Short
by theforexcast