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Thehalving

BITCOIN VS ALTCOINS Since the beginning of 2023 BITCOIN has been on a relentless upward trajectory. As the highest market cap cryptocurrency it often sets the tone for the entire market. When Bitcoin goes up it tends to drag the rest of the market up with it and the same when Bitcoin falls is the general rule of thumb. This post is to showcase the difference between Bitcoins market cap (TOTAL) Vs the Altcoin market cap which excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL3) . As the market leader Bitcoin is often the first mover and that can be seen in the chart on the left, we have at first glass a mirror image on the TOTAL3 chart on the right but with a few key differences: - When Bitcoin fell from its ATH in November, price found it's bottom at the previous cycles ATH as seen by the blue horizontal ray. Whereas the altcoin market continued to drop below its previous ATH by another 19.67% . It's an important difference because it shows that altcoins are worse off in a bear market when compared to Bitcoin, and they start from further back once the Bullrun arrives. - We can see that both charts are very similar, the next biggest difference is clearly the progression made in this Bullrun so far. Bitcoin has already moved past its "right shoulder" of the head and shoulders price pattern, TOTAL3 however is still some ways off that mark, the chart shows altcoins have a 38% gap between current level and the top of that "right shoulder" . The reason for the gap in the race can be explained the same way each cycle because they're exactly the same patterns each cycle. Bitcoin is the first mover as it is the biggest by market cap, the same cycle of capital injection happens each and every time: BITCOIN ----> LARGE CAPS ----> MID CAPS ----> SMALL CAPS Profits get rotated into the next more risky investment over and over until the blow off top and retail are left holding their positions all the way down. This will most likely still be the case this cycle however there is a new player on the field... BTC ETF's... This is new and exclusive to this cycle and I believe this will partly change the dynamic of the cycle when compared to years gone by. With over $10 BILLION DOLLARS of net inflows into BTC the institutional buyers are now here in a much bigger way than ever before, how will this disrupt the money flow? It could prevent profits from rotating somewhat into the large caps, but not completely. Naturally the ETF providers will have a large stake in the holding of BITCOIN and are going to be less inclined to sell when the cycle looks to near its end as they are still providing the service to their customers. Having less sellside pressure will help BTC hold its value. The altcoins may get the negative side of this as less profits in theory will rotate into smaller cap coins and result in a smaller 'Altseason" . This is the cost of institutional adoption. There is always the possibility of altcoin ETF's but that is another discussion. For now I can see altcoins playing catch up later this year and going into 2025.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
by ProR35
7
22/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $66857.53 Last weeks low: $63230.46 Midpoint: $59603.38 The 4th Bitcoin Halving is now complete , the block reward has been cut from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC . The reduction in reward creates a supply shock that changes the the tokenomics drastically. We now have a situation were miners revenue effectively halves overnight , despite this miners would have had ample time to plan for this as the halving is every 4 years consistently and would have been able to plan accordingly. Last week we saw Bitcoins price drop back to sub 60k after losing the 4H 200EMA support level . After a double bottom price rose back towards the underside of the 4H 200EMA and now retesting as resistance. This week will be key for the direction of BTC in the short term. We know post-halving we see new highs within a year, often very quickly after the event, but the short term price direction is very difficult to predict at this time. Institutional buyers are here, we have big players like BlackRock and MicroStrategy buying up large amounts of BTC to hold long term, the Hong Kong ETF begins on 30th April and could potentially bring Billions of dollars in additional in-flows. Grayscale has been the lead seller in the last few months as they sell large amounts of their GBTC, currently $16.4B in total . A large reason for the sell off is the high fees on Grayscales ETF compared to the newer low fee options presented by BlackRock, WisdomTree, Valkyrie etf all at 0.25%. Grayscale have now tackled this problem by creating a "Mini-GBTC" with 0.15% fees making it the lowest on the market . It will be interesting to see if this stops the consistent outflows. If it does and yet more demand enters the market in Asia coupled with a stunted supply of new Bitcoins we are looking at a good environment for price growth. This week I will be keeping a close eye on how BTC reacts around the 4H 200EMA, If we hover at this area with now real emphasis on direction then this is a traders environment where money can be made both ways before resuming the overall HTF uptrend. Alts took a huge hit last week and have given some good entry opportunities, naturally a strong BTC is needed to see progress in the alt market, with a strong reclaim of the 4H 200EMA alts can return to being risk on with a tight stop loss in my opinion.
by ProR35
15/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $72799.81 Last weeks low: $66731.50 Midpoint: $60663.19 BTC HALVING WEEK! A lot happened last week in the world of crypto, We saw our first prolonged sell off that led to BTC losing the 4H 200EMA support line, and reaching a weekly low of $60,600 . What caused this drop? In my opinion and it's easy to say in hindsight, it's been a long time coming with no clear pullback since the beginning of February. BTC's price has nearly doubled since then and with the rally exhausted a correction is healthy. It's important to back up how a trader feels anecdotally with TA and data: - In terms of TA and indicators, The 1D RSI has been on overbought for weeks and also provided a bearish divergence in mid march when we made a new ATH. - The fear and greed index is a great tool to use as confluence with other technical indicators, used in conjunction with RSI for example we can tell if BTC has anymore room to grow during this rally or we need a pullback to refuel. In this case, the fear and greed index has been above 70 since the beginning of February, peaking at 90 which historically shows a local top. FA and Geo-Political influences: - The Halving takes place this week, in the past we do usually get a sell off pre-halving, 20-30% drop's are also common during bullruns so this isn't too much of a surprise. - Geo-political escalations can cause uncertainty in the market, The COVID crash comes to mind where we have a capitulation event, I don't see this pullback as anything near the COVID crash severity, however, with conflict growing in the Middle-East it is possible risk-on assets such as BTC can suffer as investors become cautious and defensive. For this week I will be keeping a close eye on BTC reclaiming 4H 200EMA, if that is possible I believe the alt market can begin to recover, until then I do think the market will still be cautious. Flip the MIDPOINT and make it support then we're risk on, rejects and we're still playing it safe.
by ProR35
BTC 4H 200 EMA BITCOIN is back at the 4H 200 EMA . The chart shows how since BTC flipped bullish above both the 50 & 200 4H EMA's , the moving averages have provided support when aggressively trending in the case of the 50 EMA (bounced twice). When BTC has a pullback/ranges we see that the 4H EMA provides support (bounced 4 times). For the BTC rally to continue in the mid term this level must hold out to prevent further drawdown. With the halving only weeks away we have an decrease of supply and thus a a reduction in sellside pressure. Greyscale do continue to sell but for how much longer we don't know. Once they do stop selling and the mining rewards halve we have a a very bullish environment for the rest of the year. For now these are my thoughts on price action: - Hold the 4H 200EMA, range between DAILY RESISTANCE and the moving average. - Lose the 4H 200EMA, first support level is the DAILY SUPPORT, if that is lost then filling the wick at 59K could be on the cards and would offer a great place for long term holds.
by ProR35
ONDO 4H After a big flash crash during Friday seeing BTC once again test the 4H 200EMA support, the altcoin market took a much bigger hit that we've seen for some time. In these times it's always good to see how projects react to these market conditions. A strong reaction at key areas after a big pullback can show that there are big players willing to add to or make new positions further increasing the validity of that support level and giving the project a platform to continue moving up. The best case we've seen of this is ONDO, as the chart shows a perfect pullback into the FIB levels which align with a bullish OB provide a great support area, a strong reaction has put price back to where it originally was before dropping with a textbook V-shaped recovery which is rarely found across the crypto market right now. ONDO is a big player in the RWA sector, a lending protocol supporting tokenized securities as collateral. With open collaboration with massive entities such as BlackRock and Morgan Stanley and Larry Fink personally saying he believes in a Tokenised future. I think it's easy to see why the recovery has been so strong, perhaps even BlackRock themselves buying up the dip? I think the future of ONDO is bright, now a TOP 100 coin and big time backers targeting range high will be dependent on BTC but with the halving coming soon I believe it will behave. Next Target is $1, the FIB EXTENSION levels often give good price targets but one step at a time.
by ProR35
08/04/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $71365.43 Last weeks low: $67932.12 Midpoint: $64498.81 Trading can be a very complex and difficult profession to be profitable, however it can often be made more simple. The 4H 200EMA can be used to indicate the direction of the market, for 2 months now BTC has reliably been bouncing off the 4H 200EMA making it great support and an ideal position to enter a LONG position. Last week we saw BTC fall as the monthly candle closed which ended the first quarter of the year. Then after reacting positively off the key moving average priced rallied back towards the '21 ATH level of 69K which is HTF support and got back above it. In addition to reclaiming a key level, funding has cooled off and looks much healthier, the halving is less than two weeks away , Greyscale continue to sell but they are slowing down. All signs are bullish for this week and the first few hours of trading have shown it as we blast towards 73K. For this week I am going to continue to build on positions made last week during the dip while keeping and eye on BTC targeting ATH, I believe the conditions are now right to make a run for new highs. BRC20 tokens could be worth keeping an eye on as BTC looks strong as well as RWA's.
by ProR35
25/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $68975.9 Last weeks low: $64863.9 Midpoint: $60752.0 Our first major pullback took place last week as BTC saw a weekly low of $60,752 , and notably the weekly high didn't manage to top the previous cycles ATH at 69K which does indicate a HTF Bearish Swing Fail Pattern. The 4H 200EMA providing support on multiple occasions and keeping the HTF trend bullish. Both of these price action movements creating a bit of a stalemate/ chop. Looking closely to see which pattern gets broken first. So far any pullback we have seen has been more of a leverage flush than a sustained pullback, V-shaped recoveries as entities such as BlackRock completely absorb any sell pressure. However, we did see a drop in IBIT inflows that were unable to absorb Greyscales GBTC outflows , leading to negative volume and a drop in price. I think if we could see an S/R flip of the previous ATH it would give the greenlight to the rest of the market to continue moving up. Historically a pre-halving dump is normal, a ~20% correction is normal. If we don't flip that S/R level a sweep of the $58K area is not off the table but the closer we get to the halving the less likely that is to happen in my opinion. The altcoin market pulled back with BTC with a few exceptions as usual. Narrative plays like RWA enjoying gains as BlackRock prepare for their $10TRILLION Tokenisation vision starting by depositing $100m USDC on the ETHEREUM blockchain. . This week focusing on ETH based RWA projects for longer term holds could be a good plan to try and front run BlackRock buying. BITCOIN is obviously the main focus as it needs to continue its bullish trend so that the rest of the market can continue to rally. 25 Days to The Halving This weeks focus: - BTC S/R Flip - ETH RWA's
by ProR35
2
18/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $73775.8 Last weeks low: $69170.3 Midpoint: $64564.9 After making consecutive new ATH's Bitcoin has now experienced it's first prolonged pullback. Before these last few days we saw each dip as more of a leverage flush with a near instant V-shaped recovery. This however is more of a traditional pullback, the main level of note is the previous cycles ATH of SWB:69K . The MIDPOINT now signifies that level and for me and on the HTF a potential Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) . If we do see a clear rejection off SWB:69K This could be the start of one of Bitcoins signature 30% Bullrun pullbacks to punish late longers and any unexperienced retail holders. This would see price drop to FWB:52K area. Personally I think leverage flushes are going to be common place as they always are and we are due a routine pullback, A pre-halving pullback occurred in the previous halving, -20% before rallying post halving. If we assume history will repeat itself then that would see price fill the large wick at GETTEX:59K from the previous flush, entirely possible in my opinion. As for the bulls, the ETF'S have been buying up any sellside pressure since the beginning of the calendar year and with the halving only ~30 days away it's hard to see Bitcoins price being allowed to fall as what is essentially a land grab is going on, there are simply too many buyers. The Nvidia AI conference begins today! Monday until Thursday and the crypto space is anticipating volatility to come from this event. Projects such as RNDR, FET, NEAR and other AI & DePIN tokens are expected to be impacted the most. The question is always going to be is this a sell the news event? The AI space has rallied significantly in the previous months however I would say that company with a valuation of $2.2T, (roughly 50% more than the entire market cap of Bitcoin) , bringing attention to these crypto projects and at least making the link between the two is a positive for the industry and can only bring more attention and money to the space.
by ProR35
2
03/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $64271.5 Last weeks low: $57579.4 Midpoint: $50887.4 BITCOIN ATH IS IN SIGHT! A crazy final week of February closing the monthly candle with a record single candle gain in the history of Bitcoin! A +52.8% gain in a single month ($22,134.20) . This price action has lead us to a situation that has never been seen before in this markets relatively short history... Never has BTC broken its previous ATH before The Halving , yet the we are currently -5% away from ATH with approximately 49 days to The Halving . With new institutional buyers involved in this cycle it is clear the schedule for what we have become used to has been sped up significantly and we can now expect for the ATH to be broken even before the mining reward gets cut in half! Another metric that can be used to gauge our progress in the cycle is general sentiment and retail interest . So far the news cycle is quiet about crypto and the standard retail investors that general give a top signal are nowhere to be seen currently. This is all very bullish for the space and indicated room to grow. For this week I will be planning how to preserve my capital and manage my greed accordingly. As it stands the FEAR AND GREED INDEX is 86 which should be taken into account. I do think once BTC breaks past its previous ATH the news will start to cover more stories about BITCOIN which could also bring retail investors to the table, maybe they forgot about their spot positions they bought at the peak of the last cycle and would look to cash out at break even and therefor increase selling pressure? That may not happen but planning for it helps in case it is a sell the news event. My general thoughts for this Bullrun remain the same a buy and hold strategy will outperform the day trader but -30% flushes are perfectly normal in these conditions so it's always important have some cash in reserve to add to narrative plays.
by ProR35
19/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $42846.80 Last weeks low: $50286.30 Midpoint: $47725.79 BITCOIN has finally done it! BTC has flipped the all important 49K S/R level and has had a week of confirmation meaning 49K is now major support and a new trading zone has been entered. Last week we saw BTC continue the rally that started the week previously with a near linear move up towards the resistance level, now the chart shows at the 0.25 level price broke through that level and had a successful retest followed by a further push up towards just shy of 53K . This price action initially took capital and interest away from the altcoin market, however now that we have some sideways chop as BTC establishes a base for which it can push towards the halving and ATH, some of those profits have now cycled through to ETH and the altcoin market with some double digit returns across the board. All this price action is very bullish from a TA standpoint along with the FA side of things with BlackRock now owning MUN:10B + in BTC for their ETF the sell pressure has definitely dropped and with the halving fast approaching the supply will drop even more. For this week I would not be surprised if we see a revisit of the midpoint ~$50K area and continue ranging for a little bit while altcoins rally and play catch up. In particular the AI coins have shown particular strength and I do think this category of altcoins will outperform a large portion of the market. I would begin to get worried if we see BTC fall back below the 49k range although the longer we stay at the current level I think the less likely that is to happen.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
12/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $48582.05 Last weeks low: $45414.55 Midpoint: $42247.04 What a crazy rally from BTC last week! From the very start creating the weekly low and the end of the week creating the weekly high with a near perfect linear move up. With 49K as the local high consolidation just under this level is extremely bullish and with the halving moving ever closer BTC is looking very strong currently. I believe that most people myself included would see one last drop towards the mid 30K range to really catapult up from there, the big ETF players could lower their DCA and propel BTC to a new ATH a few months after the halving. However max pain would simply be BTC leaving everyone that is waiting for lower prices side-lined and push up towards the highs ahead of schedule. So for this week a close eye needs to be on the structure of BTC around this local high. Any swing fail pattern would be very tempting to enter a short position, I believe a lot of people would welcome that setup, if that was the case you would need a very tight SL in case the rally continues. The more chop we see at these levels the more likely that is too happen in my opinion.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
05/02/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $43871.39 Last weeks low: $42838.73 Midpoint: $41806.06 Last week we saw the first month of 2024 come to a close as well as FOMC , this in my opinion contributed to the chop throughout the week with no clear direction in terms of trend. BlackRock continued to buy up BITCOIN and now hold ~ SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B worth of the asset. Last week in my outlook I thought that the target of 44.5K is where the bulls needed to aim towards and ideally flip to support however they have fallen short and now I think looks a little heavy. I've said previously I could see a slow bleed towards 33K and it's beginning to look more and more likely as the bulls seem to be exhausted. This BTC price action has had an effect on the ALT market with the majority of pairs bleeding off too, potentially leading to great long term hold entries in the near future on exciting new L1's and other narrative coins. Historically February is a good month for BTC so there is hope on the bullish side, with the halving on the way too buyside pressure will grow naturally, in the short term arguments can be made for both sides and I think that's why we're seeing chop and indecision currently, until there is a clear direction only the nibble and very skilled traders are risking this price action. For me I am looking into where I would like to buy strong alts at key levels for swing trading timeframes.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
Halving Forecast Just a quick idea on the state of BTC going into the halving. The countdown to the next big BITCOIN event has started, THE HALVING Historically this is the event that kicks off the BULLRUN every 4 years. Mining rewards go from 6.25BTC to 3.125BTC and this gives miners a dilemma, do they hold on to their BTC they earn and only sell to cover costs, this diminishes the supply going into the market which raises prices assuming demand remains the same. Or if they do carry on selling their BTC it would be half the amount it was previously and still contributes less to the sells side pressure, raising prices. ETF issuers need these coins to offer to customers + retail investors returning to the market once FOMO enters the playing field. DEMAND UP SUPPLY DOWN As for now I could see a mirror of the ETF rally being a logical path towards the halving. Filling the FVG at 33k would be a great long term entry point for any investor/trader should it hold as support. Once price has wicked down into that area and there's a reaction off that level then the bulls should look to push price for that 3 weeks or so going into the halving and beyond towards ATH as there's not much stopping it and history suggests this is the way BTC behaves after this event every 4 years.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ProR35
1
22/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $43584.42 Last weeks low: $41935.80 Midpoint: $40287.19 With the BTC sell off underway post ETF approval, we start the week hovering just under the previous weeks low of 41.5k. This area is the key S/R zone in my opinion and for now it looks like BTC bulls are struggling to reclaim that level. I previously stated in the last weeks outlook that there is a strong magnet pulling price towards the 33K area FVG . To reach that area and react positively off the level would be very bullish and should begin the next leg up towards 50K+ going into the run up for THE HALVING . For now BTC bleeding is causing the altcoin market to do the same, however as normal altcoins do tend to bleed against BTC as well for example SOL is now sub $90 and falling, good opportunities will present themselves in the coming days/weeks for the next leg up in the Bullrun but patience is key. In conclusion the ETF news was a sell the news event, Blackrock and others are scooping up large sums of BTC at discounted rates as market makers push the prices lower. That in turn drags altcoin prices down with it and now it seems we're heading towards the 30K's . My final target would be ~33K before looking towards becoming bullish again. I will rethink that plan if BTC was able to reclaim 41.5K with strength. Short term bearish long term bullish
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
2
02/01/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $43821.44 Last weeks low: $42563.55 Midpoint: $41305.65 HAPPY NEW YEAR TRADERS! A new year has arrived and with it another year of price action or BITCOIN. This year the general sentiment is as strong as it has ever been with ETF's & THE HALVING events in the first half of the year alone. Last weeks price action showed a consolidation just under the local high allowing some of the lagging altcoins to run and others to cool off for the next move in the market. The rumour is ETF decision will be announced this week, there is talk of whether the event is a sell the news event or if it's bullish. I would say I'm sceptical and I have said previously I think it would be a sell the news, the majority of big money players would have made their money on the way up to the decision, not gamble on the result. BTC price tripled in 2022 and those kinds of returns for big investors are great, why risk the volatility after the decision. However... Having said that I would also be a fool to disregard the sheer power of FOMO, a big headline in the news about BlackRock's ETF approval would send retail investors back into the market to make a "quick buck" which brings a buying pressure, volatility and also a risk of a blow-off top. A case for the bulls would be BlackRock would not want to let their brand new ETF look bad, it would need to be an attractive investment and so they would probably do their best to steady and volatility to be able to attract customers and extract fees from them. I do also see BTC being at new highs by the end of the year, so depending on the timeframe of your investment you may be able to ride out the volatility of the ETF's, however you may get a better entry by being agile.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
State of Bitcoin (November)A daily chart on BITCOIN is very simple to dissect, what BITCOIN will do from here is not so easy to work out. The idea is to plan for what to do at the key levels and everything else in-between is just noise that wants to take your money. How I see BTC is what you see in the chart: - The immediate attention is drawn to the ascending triangle BTC currently finds itself in, these patterns can be bullish or bearish depending on the direction of the breakout. the trend is currently bullish and that plays a factor in the outcome. - What was previously a bearish OB at the 32k level has been flipped but not retested for support yet, if the ascending triangle fails or bulls run out of momentum the most likely plan would be to drop to that level. - The next bearish OB is sat 22% higher than that 32k level at ~38k, before that there really isn't much resistance. - In the longer term, a matter of months I think the best possible buy zone is the FVG at 19-20k area. That would be a no brainer buy and hold for the next several years. We've seen a deviation below that area and the reclaim is what started this rally. I would estimate that this is the absolute floor for BTC now, especially when the ETF's are approved and the halving comes into play. - If this FVG isn't filled the next best place is the S/R level at 25k but as we can see on the chart, the third time testing an area it usually gives way so for me 25k doesn't look like it would hold another retest. I do think max pain would be just keep squeezing higher while everyone is waiting for one more dip, I myself would like one more dip but every eventuality must be planned for.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by ProR35