Bullish bias on GBPCAD on Friday June 07.What I see? A nice weekly 2-1-2 Bullish Rev in force and an early entry on daily with a really nice R/R.
What I expect? Tomorrow, The Net Change of Employment and Unemployment Rate will be released by Statistics Canada Both data are expected to be lower/higher than expected in a bearish way.
Furthermore, the Canadian dollar futures seem to be in consolidation(what I don't like) after a downward trend, however there are no strong signals to have a bullish bias on CAD.
My strategy is based on TheStrat + Fundamentals + Convergence/Divergence.
Thestrat
Bullish bias on AUDUSD weekly timeframePosition: Long
Entry date: The new daily candle on 05/27/2024 should trigger the entry at 0.66365.
Stop-loss: 0.65922
Risk/reward: 1:2.19
Swap: It's quite low considering that this trade is supposed to be held for about 7 days, and the interest rates on AUD/USD are not significantly different.
Pros:
1) The monthly trend is bullish.
2) The weekly timeframe shows a potential 2-1-2 Bullish Continuation pattern.
3) The daily timeframe shows a potential 2-2 Bullish Reversal, which we can use as an ancipated entry to trigger the weekly.
Cons:
1) In a week, the monthly timeframe changes, potentially triggering entries but not reaching the TP and then reversing direction at the flip.
Bullish bias on NZDUSD monthly timeframePosition: Long
Entry date: 05/24/2024 on daily timefrime.
Risk/reward: 1:2.27
Pros:
1) The quarterly trend is bullish.
2) The monthly timeframe shows a 2-2 Bullish Reversal pattern.
3) The daily timeframe shows a potential 2-1-2 Bullish Reversal pattern that goes along with the weekly timeframe continuity(when the new weekly candle opens on Monday).
Cons:
1) In a week, the monthly timeframe changes, potentially triggering entries but not reaching the TP and then reversing direction at the flip.
2) The first entry was already triggered, so we missed some movement, but it's okay not to be the first in.
3) The weekly timeframe doesn't show a confirmation pattern.
Bullish bias on EURUSD monthly timeframePosition: Long
Entry date: 05/25/2024 on daily timefrime.
Risk/reward: 1:2.37
Pros:
1) The quarterly trend is bullish.
2) The monthly timeframe shows a 2-2 Bullish Reversal pattern.
3) The weekly timeframe shows a potential 2-1-2 Bullish Reversal pattern that could trigger an entry on the monthly timeframe.
4) The daily timeframe shows a potential 2-1-2 Bullish Reversal pattern that could trigger an entry on the weekly timeframe.
Cons:
1) The weekly timeframe does not have continuity with the daily timeframe, but since it is an anticipatory entry, it is acceptable.
2) In a week, the monthly timeframe changes, potentially triggering entries but not reaching the TP and then reversing direction at the flip.
EOY Review $HAL messy....inside yearNSE:HAL
2 UP on the quarter but not strong enough to close above Q3 high
inside year = no clear direction
messy 3M chart = neutral and a need to wait for more clues
oil & energy (related) names not the strongest this year, which could mean (more) potential upwards, but need to see price confirm that suggestion first
EOY Review $GOOG strong year heading into exhaustion levelNASDAQ:GOOG
Magnificent 7 did great this year, GOOG included
strong close, 4 green quarters in a row
exhaustion risk -for what it's worth- around that 152 level
will be interesting to see how this level (and similar levels for the other big 6) will play any role in what the big guys/institutes will do here
let's watch and see, anything can happen, incl. big tech (check out '22)
EOY Review $DOW how to make 0,11 $ in 4 years....NYSE:DOW a great example why long term investing doesn't always beat shorter term speculating/trading
current price at same level as EOY '19....
closed the 2 down quarter green, above the low of previous quarter = positive
inside year = no clear direction, until market gives us new clues = neutral
anything can happen
EOY Review $DIS first baby steps back up The good thing about NYSE:DIS is the outside quarter
but, it couldn't close above that Q3 high, so still not that strong of a look
given it took out the low of '22 and closed above it, this could mean we've seen the worst
overall, if the 3 on the quarter might see some continuation upwards, I see this just as the first baby steps of what could be a nice run back up
so, first things first, let's see a close above the Q4 high first and than see what's next
anything can happen
EOY Review $CMCSA inside year, momo hammer quarterNASDAQ:CMCSA
that momo hammer on the quarter looks promising, but these type of candles can easily reverse
and when it does, it typically drops back quickly
the inside year tells me to wait for further clues first before taking trades
hence, no long or short (bias) for me on this one yet
obviously, when that hammer high on the quarter gets taken out and price continues to move up, the overall picture improves, with the '23 and '22 highs as important pivots
EOY Review $BAC outside quarter, looks promising Financials did well in Q4
NYSE:BAC with a bright green 3 on the quarter
hammer on the year, with lot of upside potential
notice that other financials e.g. JPM ended the year at/above previous highs
meaning BAC wasn't the strongest of them
but, also could mean more upside potential
let' see how it plays out in '24
no predictions, price and time will tell
anything can happen....
EOY Review $BABA mother bar problems on the year.... Inside year, see how BABA got stuck in between the high and low of 2022
going nowhere, you can hear Rob say....
bearish shooter look on this yearly red inside bar
ugly
sure, it might get taken back up, but let's start with a reversal quarter first and we'll go from there
taking out the low of '22 seems more likely at this point
let's see, no predictions
EOY Review $AMZN still some pivots to take out upsideNASDAQ:AMZN another bright green candle on the year
it did take out the low of previous year in Q1 by a bit
so, strat wise it's a 2 down on the year, obviously bright green
is it extended? maybe.....
but, the good thing for those with a bullish bias, still 2 previous yearly highs to take out
how strong will AMZN be in 2024? Let's see
EOY review $AMD explosive move up, still inside year NASDAQ:AMD what a move, bright green year, but still inside year
outside quarter, inside year
extended? maybe, who knows, but....
always room for a further move up, especially given the highs of '22 and '21
both, not taken out yet....
let's see how semi conductors will move from here, in the A.I. era
EOY review $AAPL big mamaAAPL outside quarter and outside year
exhaustion risk, with a little nuance
see how it did take out the Q3 highs, but couldn't close above it (although bright green)
one of the good things about zooming out to the higher timeframes, is that another (massive) move up can occur
also known as a 3-2 to the upside
let's see what happens, keeping an aye on it for sure
AMD 3-2 up on the week, potential PMG Outside week (once a 3 always a 3), follow through with a 2 up on the weekly.
Pivot Machine Gun (PMG) potential up North.
As long as it's green on the week, month and quarter Long it is.
Beware: green, but still inside (1) on the month and quarter.
Shooting for 120-130 area towards the end of the year, let's see how it plays out.
QQQ TimeFrameContinuity UP September was a losing month for many big names & QQQ.
TImeFrameContinuty (TFC) back up, potential follow through with a couple of nice weekly pivots.
No guarantees, but has a nice look to it. Let 'm open next week and see if aggressive buyers keep showing up amongst different participation groups (week, month and quarter).
$AMZN Still strong, a pull back and reversal back up (?)Decent shooter on the 2D could signal a pull back on NASDAQ:AMZN , would be nice to see a reversal move up further North.
With Monthly OPEX for May behind us, see how it moves from here.
AMZN strong, but not the ultra strong move AAPL had so far on the year. Also giving it more potential before it reaches exhaustion risk like AAPL at current levels.
No FOMO, no chasing for me. Definitely looking for to long AMZN IF this scenario will unfold.
IF this THEN that.
IF not, also fine. There will be hundreds if not thousands more trading opportunities. As long as you stay in the game. Hence, patience.
$BAC heading North from bottom of the tri (?) FWB:BACT - not the strongest close on the 2D, but I'm keeping an eye on this one.
Potential move back up from the bottom of the tri on the 2W (a.k.a. broadening formation).
Keeping in mind BAC is still one of the weaker brothers in the XLF...let's get back to that later, still work in progress (study sector ETF's vs individual names).
$AAPL still strong, but with some exhaustion risk (?)Apple one of the leading names so far on the year, still going strong.
Especially after it took out high of last August (see 2W chart), now could face some exhaustion risk.
On track to take out previous year high, let's see how it plays out.
No chasing for me, not according to plan.
XLY set to decline
* Failed 2u on quarterly; still time to go outside quarter
* Failed 2u on monthly; out of time to go outside, but negative momentum
* Clear rejection of bearish trendline on weekly chart. No real support until it falls to 127 (currently 143.66)
* Daily chart shows bulls mounted one more challenge to the trendline but that failed even harder. “If markets try to do something twice, it usually then tries the opposite” (I think this is an Al Brooks quote)
I am STRONG BEARISH on this
5/1 Watchlist + NotesSPY - Crazy finish to the week and month. Bulls absolutely controlled Friday and pushed us even higher on the weekly to create an engulfing week. We had super strong closes on the daily, weekly, and monthly. I cannot imagine a world where we don't push even higher next week. I would imagine we test the 418 and 420 levels at some point. Was not expecting this at all, so I am curious to see how next month plays out. With the FED predicting a bearish second half of the year, this price action leads me to think we may have already priced in a small recession as the FED claims we may have, or we are seeing a final push to the upside to trap some buyers before seeing a bigger drop. As always we have to play what's in front of us and not what we are expecting, so proceed with caution and try not to let your own personal bias effect your trading
Watchlist:
Nothing on the scanner really has my attention for Monday so I will just be trading SPY. I do have a long position on ARKK that I am swinging so I will be watching that as well.
All inside setups and 50% retrace setups listed on my scanner in the picture for this post.
Main Watch:
ARKK - Just watching to manage my position. I think with the bullish bias on SPY that we have, we should see a push higher on ARKK on Monday
Previous Main Watch:
U + ARKK
- Both created bullish engulfing days and I ended up entering ARKK 37.5 C for this coming Friday's exp. Up currently on that position and holding. Did not take a position on U. Just watching them still
Watchlist Stats From Last Week:
2/5 SPY Predictions
3/5 Main Watch Plays
Personal Stats:
0/2 on the week
Overall: Red
- Didnt trade much due to it being finals week for me
- Took a couple small L's but got some W's with forex and crypto scalps so I am pretty much B/E on the week, but for these lists I like to count only my options trading
- Looking to make a hard rebound this week with my schedule now being much more open and having more time to focus on trading.
Lets make some money this week. As always be smart, follow rules, and always be striving to learn more and better your trading. Cheers