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Thestrat

4/28 Watchlist + NotesShort Watchlist today. Will go into details from this week on sunday nights list for next week. SPY - Wanted consolidation or light pull back today and got a massive green day instead. Overall was not expecting this, but to be fair with the amount of dropping we did back to back leading up to today, I think it was fair to see this kind of range. Anyone who played the 2D-2U daily reversal should have made solid profits today. Overall going into tomorrow I am hoping for an inside day to end the week, but with the 2-2 reversal we have now created, we must look at breaking today's high to send us even higher. We have crossed back over the BF midpoint, but the weekly remains a nice red candle so we may not get to see the top of the BF range again. Also worth noting we start a new monthly candle next week so volatility may be high as we finish the weekly and monthly candles Watchlist: U - 2-1 at the bottom of a broadening formation drawn a while back. Looking for upside ARKK - 2-1 at the bottom of a daily trendline for it's 3rd touch. Looking for upside as well Personally did not trade today and had a super busy day with finals (Done with school for the semester btw), but will be back at it tomorrow and all of next week. Apologies again for the short list. I will be sure to include all details from this week on my watchlist for monday whenever I get around to posting that this weekend. Good luck finishing out the week/month strong as always
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
4/27 Watchlist + NotesSPY - Saw more downside as we had predicted last night. Made some solid range to the downside. I am expecting tomorrow to be a repeat of today or an inside day. We are reaching weekly downside exhaustion so I would say there is no reason to not be bearish... yet. But tomorrow could be a day of consolidation/retrace since we have had such big drops the past two days. Watchlist: MCD - 3-1 BABA - 2-1 Main Watch: MCD - Looking for a heavy drop tomorrow. Seeing a Pivot Machine Gun pattern here that could play out nicely if sellers step up Previous main watch: W - Broke to the downside and banked. Solid trade overall. Pretty much filled all downside room I saw on my charts. Watchlist Stats: 1/3 SPY Predictions 1/3 Main Watch Plays Personal Stats: 0/2 On The Week Overall Red - Busy today with finals as I near the end of my semester at college. - Wasnt able to trade because of this and probably wont be able to trade tomorrow either. - Scalped some forex after hours but nothing serious
AMEX:SPYShort
by Alanger17
4/26 Watchlist + NotesSPY - Was bullish going into today due to 2-2 daily reversal. Obviously that prediction didnt go well, but we did trigger the 2-2 reversal on the weekly which was one of my goals for us for this week so I am pleased with that. We had an insanely bearish day today as well as a bearish close so I expect some more downside tomorrow at least in premarket or shortly after open. We are incredibly close to our weekly reversal target by the textbook 2-2 reversal standards, but I have a feeling this week could be the start of a shift in market trend to the downside. Going into tomorrow I am looking for either lower lows on the daily or an inside day to be created. I think we can almost expect a failed 2D tomorrow unless selling pressure continues, then we may have a repeat sell off day. Watchlist: KO - 3-1 W - 3-1 TSLA - 2-1 VZ - 50% rule Main Watch: W - Best setup out of the 4 on the list. 3-1 Could play out super well if we break to the upside, but downside has equal potential. Willing to play either. Yesterday's Main Watch: AA - Opened outside of broadening formation to the downside to create volatility expansion No entry to either side due to the gap so this one is an L Watchlist Stats: 0/2 SPY predictions 0/2 Main Watch Plays Personal Stats: 0/2 On the week - NFE Swing opened red and I closed it before more red came. Entered super early on this and paid the price for it even though it was 10% of my full position it was still a loss - Getting beat up with the swings this week - Overall not too red as they have both been small losses. Looking to rebound with SPY the next couple days as we create tons of opportunities with this weekly reversal signal Don't let red days and/or streaks keep you down. Analyze, study, learn, and move forward. Thats what I am doing this week in response to my red days this week. Best of luck tomorrow, lets turn things around
AMEX:SPYShort
by Alanger17
3
4/24 Watchlist + Notes SPY - I was neutral going into today. We started off the day by heading lower but not being able to break Friday lows before reversing and breaking Friday highs. This triggers a 2-2 reversal on the daily and now tells us we can potentially target last week highs. Overall going into tomorrow I am bullish and expect to break today's high either in PM or RTH. I would still like to see us break weekly lows, but we still have not seen any weekly reversal signal, so with the daily chart and weekly chart in their current state, I have to be bullish. Watchlist: UNH - 3-1 PG - 2-1 AA - 2-1 Main Watch: AA - At the bottom of a broadening formation on the daily. Gorgeous setup. Ideally we break today's high and fill/test the FVG level at 39.62 UNH looks solid as well, but AA is a better setup because of the R/R Previous Main Watch: ETSY - Broke to the upside and saw minimal gains. Weekly still has not broken out so watching to see if we continue to the upside tomorrow. Watchlist Stats 0/1 SPY predictions 1/1 Main Watch Plays Top Winner: ETSY (+?) Personal Stats: 0/1 On the Week Overall Red - 1/2 On swings since I started playing them more last week - Lost on ARKK. Got stopped out after we formed a 2-2 reversal on the daily. ARKK shortly after my exit dropped hard and ran to 40% gains from my entry Friday, creating an engulfing daily - Swinging NFE HKEX:35 Calls overnight. Seeing tons of potential with this one. Tomorrow NEEDS to be bullish though. I got in extra early on this one but with only 10% of my entire position
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alanger17
4/24 Watchlist + NotesSPY - I was neutral going into Friday, but I did mention my bias if I absolutely had to choose one was bearish. We barely broke under Thursday's low before ultimately closing back around the open level. This is pretty much what I was expecting Friday to look like, and now it opens up a great opportunity for the upcoming week. We have our 4th failed 2 on the daily with this one being a neutral candle, as well as a failed 2U on the weekly. This is the first weak weekly candle we have seen in a while, and it comes at an interesting level where we are fighting with previous weekly high resistance levels. I think this week will tell us whether we are going to reverse back under 400 or progress back up to the 420 and maybe 430 levels. We somewhat rejected the daily BF midpoint the last two sessions so I am thinking the daily chart could see a 2-2 reversal which may trigger a weekly 2-2 continuation, but at the same time if Monday is weak for SPY we could trigger a 2-2 reversal on the weekly. Overall I am neutral going into Monday, and I am more so just looking to see which way price breaks to. If I had to guess, I would say we break that midpoint and trigger the 2-2 weekly, but that is just my guess, and a guess only because of my longer term bearish bias. Watchlist + Challenge Account info: Account value: 46.98 (Only took one trade last week and it was a small Loss) Weekly Setups For Swings: W - 2-1 NOW - 3-1 HTHT - 3-1 MDB - 3-1 NFE - 2-1 AAL - 2-1 ETSY - 2-1 CRWD - 2-1 With the above mentioned tickers, just look for setups on the daily/hourly for swings. Setups on smaller time frames act as dominoes to create active setups on higher time frames, remember that. Daily Setups: All shown in picture Main Watch: ETSY 2-1 Weekly and Daily charts. Potentially at the bottom of a BF on the daily, looking for upside tomorrow and for the rest of the week Previous Main Watch: AAPL - Winner: Wanted downside and we got it. Opened much lower than short entry so we were not able to get in on this play, but seeing that we were correct with analysis is always a win in my books. Looking for AAPL to continue lower this week Watchlist Stats From Last Week: 4/5 SPY predictions 2/6 Main Watch Plays Top Winner: TSLA +15% Personal Stats: 3/4 On The Week Overall: Green - Top Winner personally was T being +615% - Swung ARKK puts over the weekend. (Super Small position) - Been loving the swing setups and broadening formations a lot more lately. Seems to bring more success to my trading Lets kill it again this week! Looking to really get the challenge account value up this week. Trying to hit 100$ by Friday
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
4/21 Watchlist + Notes SPY - As mentioned on my list yesterday, I was cautiously bullish going into today due to the fact that we had a 2-2 reversal on the daily. We were not able to break highs of yesterday (Which I credit to bad ER from before the bell on big names like TSLA) and ended up opening lower on the day but fighting our way back up to fill premarket gaps before dropping back down again. Ended the day red with a failed 2D again for the 3rd failed 2 day in a row. Not really sure what to make of this as we head into Friday. We have a failed 2D which tells us we have a potential 2-2 reversal on the daily incoming if we break today's highs. We also could be targeting a 50% retrace of the previous weekly candle as we are currently in a failed 2U on the weekly. I think both upside and downside have potential for tomorrow for numerous reasons so with that all being said, I am neutral going into Friday's session. If I was truly forced to make a prediction on whether we go up or down tomorrow, I would say we have better odds of pushing to the downside. It is still nearly 50/50 in my opinion but for those of you who have experienced multiple friday sessions before, you know that anything can happen. Im open to playing both sides but I think downside does have more potential range if that is the direction we head tomorrow. Challenge Account + Watchlist: Value: 46.98 (No Change Today) AAPL - 3-1 Daily (At top of potential BF so if we break to the downside that would be ideal) UAL - 2-1 Daily U - Broadening Formation Main Watch: AAPL - Really loving the potential on this play. 3-1s are always fun to play, but looking bigger than just the daily, we have a solid potential BF formed on the weekly. Looking to break to the downside tomorrow to maybe begin a downswing to the bottom of the BF. Previous Main Watch: CCL - Loser - broke lower on the daily and hit downside target. Wanted upside Watchlist Stats: 3/4 SPY Predictions 1/5 Main Watch Plays Top Winner: TSLA 15% Personal Stats" 3/4 On the week Overall: Heavy Green - Swung T puts into today that ran over 600% - Swinging ARKK puts for tomorrow and next week potentially - Been doing 1 play a day and it has been working well Finish the week strong everyone. Best of luck trading tomorrow!
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
2
4/20 Watchlist + NotesSPY - Went into today with a bearish bias. We opened lower than yesterday's low, but did not reach our 411 target. Instead we retraced over 50% of yesterday's range to form a failed 2D. Since we retraced over 50% we now can target Tuesday's high at 415.72. Overall I am bullish going into tomorrow, but only if we break today's high. Remember when trading with TheStrat we are playing price action, so it is important to recognize that we have a 2-2 reversal on the daily now even though both 2s are failed. Challenge Account Update and Watchlist Value: 46.98 (-3.02) Down about $3.00 on the day from a slow moving trade on U. Chop was not fun to sit in and I was seeing some reversal signals so we took a small L. The contract I got ended up running 50% from entry, but overall was not upset about the loss since it was pretty small. Was not able to find another trade so just stayed red on the day with the challenge account CCL - 50% rule / BF. This is the only stock that showed up on the challenge account scanner so this will be the main watch also. Bullish because of a failed 2d daily. Looking for 9.95 Tomorrow. Need to break 9.86 tomorrow before we can target weekly highs. Could create an engulfing weekly candle if we are bullish tomorrow. Otherwise we target 9.50 to the downside Previous Main Watch: U - Loser - bounced off of weekly short trigger and instantly reversed. Curious to see if tomorrow holds downside for U or not Watchlist Stats: 3/3 SPY predictions 1/4 Main Watch Plays Top Winner: TSLA (15%) Personal Stats: 2/3 On the week including challenge account plays Overall Green still - Swung puts on T (light position) - Been a slow week it feels like with the slow moving price action - May not trade tomorrow due to my schedule Good luck as always. Trade Smart tomorrow.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alanger17
4/14 Watchlist + NotesMy watchlist got taken down by TradingView moderators yesterday. As a recap, I was bearish on SPY, and main watch was PYPL for the 3-1 setup it had on the daily SPY - Super bullish uptrend day. I was hoping for bearish continuation, but the markets had other plans. I can really only credit this movement to two things: Neutral CPI data, and markets possibly re-adjusting/stabilizing from yesterday's madness. Regardless of why we were so off with our prediction, we were just wrong plain and simple. Unfortunately my streak of correct predictions has ended because of today. This is a prime example of an engulfing day not following suit and moving in the unexpected direction, which happens about 15% of the time when we see engulfing candle days. We closed relatively strong, so I have to believe we will see continuation tomorrow. Upside target set at the 416 area. I have a feeling we either pump hard tomorrow or just consolidate and create an inside day. Would rather see an inside day being made than another 2U Watchlist: 3-1 Daily Setups: (Neutral on all except TSLA) TSLA - Bullish COST DOCU DIS 2-1 Daily Setups: (Also Neutral on All) AMD SHOP PFE SQ BABA LULU CSCO Main Watch: TSLA & PYPL PYPL never broke out of the 3-1 daily so now it is in a 3-1-1. Watching for upside TSLA is in a 3-1 and has more room to the upside. Also watching for upside. Target is 191. To the downside target is 176.16 Yesterday's main watch: PYPL: mentioned it did not break out of the 3-1 above. Not a loss, not a win either Watchlist Stats: 3/4 on SPY predictions 2/4 Main Watch Plays Personal Stats: 1/3 On the week Overall red Messed up today. Had two solid trade ideas, but just barely got stopped out on both before the move I was looking for happened. After two losses I called it a day and just watched for the rest of the day. Sometimes on days like today where I am right with my analysis, but lose trades, it is best to just stop trading and watch. Every trader has good and bad days. I can credit this red day to a few minor issues, but the main thing on days like this is to be able to recognize the mistake or mistakes, learn from them, and move on. Lets rebound tomorrow and close the week green. Good luck everyone
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alanger17
4/10 Watchlist + Notes Initial Thoughts - Solid week last week, questionably bullish this coming week, lots of finance/bank stocks report ER this week, CPI this week. SPY - On Wednesday I mentioned on my watchlist that I was cautiously bearish for a few reasons. Turned out my suspicions were valid because we pushed lower early on in the day Thursday before pumping the rest of the day to create a bullish engulfing daily candle. I was really hoping this wouldn't happen, but we play the cards that we are dealt. Going into next week, and specifically monday, I am looking for a move to the upside. I am still hoping we overall head lower on the week, but it seems like we could be due for a retest of that 412 level we touched on last week. I have upside targets loosely set at the 410 and 412 areas. I am still remaining cautious as we are still at a critical level on the longer time frames, CPI data comes out this week, and there are some heavy ER reports coming from the financial sector, which could all make this coming week very volatile. OVERALL BIAS: Skeptically Bullish. I think we test 410 for sure either in premarket or RTH. Once again, I am basing my bias on what is in front of us, and what makes the most sense for the next session. Expecting this week to be very volatile Watchlist + Bias: AAPL - 2-1 Daily: Neutral PFE - 2-1 Daily: Neutral BIDU - 2-1 Daily: Bearish PEP - 2-1 Daily: Bullish BABA - 2-1 Weekly: Bullish CRM - 2-1 Weekly: Neutral (Sitting at FVG on weekly) SQ - 3-1-1 Weekly: Bullish Main Watch: SQ - Was watching this one last Thursday and we didn't go anywhere. I have high hopes that we will break out to the upside this week. Entry around 70, stop below 66. Targets around the 80 and 83 area. Simple as that. More to be said about this one come end of day monday, but for now, we are going into monday off of a bullish engulfing candle on the daily. Previous main watch: SQ - not a winner or loser. Explanation above Stats from last weeks watchlists: 4/4 on SPY predictions 3/4 on Main Watch Plays. (technically 4/5 but im not counting thursday) Top winner: DOCU (400%+) Personal Stats: 4/5 Win/Loss (80% Winrate) Overall green week Slow start but finished well Good luck tomorrow. Watch SPY and VIX at all times throughout the week
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alanger17
4/6 Watchlist + NotesInitial Thoughts: Incredible day, markets closed friday, minimal inside day setups SPY - Mentioned yesterday that we were bearish going into today for a number of reasons. Early on in the session we saw SPY push up slightly only to be rejected by a downward trend line created in premarket. We hit our downside target at the mid 406 level and even pushed lower than that before making an afternoon reversal. We also hit our lower trend line on the broadening formation created yesterday on the daily. Overall played out perfectly, only could have asked for more downside to 404 if anything TOMORROW: Due to how we closed and previous daily patterns similar to the one we're in now, I am still slightly bearish going into tomorrow, but I think we need to be cautious. With this week being a 4 day trading week, and being at the beginning of a potential daily/weekly reversal point, I think we could see some consolidation just as easily as we could see more downside. Full disclosure, I am not extremely confident in us seeing more downside tomorrow, but it makes the most sense based on our situation. Ideally I would like to see a move lower to the 404 area before consolidating. OVERALL BIAS: Cautiously Bearish Watchlist + Bias: BABA 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bearish (Only inside day to show up on the scanner) SQ - 3-1 Weekly: Neutral (Still has not broken out) DOCU - 1-1-2D Weekly: Bearish (Finally broke out of inside week setup. Watching for continuation going into tomorrow and next week) SHOP - 50% Rule Weekly: Bearish (Finally saw the downside we wanted the other day due to a failed 2U reversal today. Looking to see SHOP hit 44.01 between tomorrow and next week) Main Watch: SQ - Not a crazy good setup, but definitely interested with the weekly chart. We still remain within our inside week setup. I am watching tomorrow to see if we can breakout in either direction to pick up a swing position for next week. I would prefer downside due to my bias with SPY, but I will be open to playing upside as well since SQ is set up to do well in either direction. It is worth noting we made a failed 2D on the daily, which gives us a small bullish bias for tomorrow on SQ, but the past 4 days have been failed 2s, so that may be irrelevant. Entry Long: above 68.24. Upside Targets: 69.74, 70.53, 72.64. Entry Short: Under 66.62 Downside Targets: 65.81, 64.56, 63.51, 61.55 Yesterday's Main Watch: DOCU: What a solid trade. Opened at our short entry, and then dropped steadily throughout the day until reversing with SPY. Cons ran well over 400% from entry (.21 -> 1.06 If I remember correctly). I hope you all can take this play and learn from it, specifically how powerful trades can be if you have a crazy setup like we did with the double inside week. Hope everyone was able to make some money on this one. Watchlist Stats: 3/3 SPY predictions 3/4 Main Watch Plays Top Winner: DOCU (400%+) Personal Stats: 2/3 On The Week Overall: Green - Completely turned the week around for myself after being barely red from monday's session. I credit this to patience and discipline. Most traders would be super eager to start trading again after a losing day. Having patience and waiting for that right trade to turn things around is absolutely key to mastering emotions and being successful in trading. All it takes is 1 good trade per day. Don't overtrade (I know it is very easy to do, and I used to struggle with this), have patience, and most importantly, be comfortable with taking losses, not conditioned to taking losses. Tomorrow will be tricky if I had to guess. Trade smart, and be careful as it is the end of the trading week. And if I am unable to make monday's watchlist until later this weekend, enjoy the holiday for those who celebrate it!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Alanger17
4/5 Watchlist + NotesInitial Notes - Personally did not trade today, Analysis was on point, rest of week should be exciting SPY - So it looks like scenario 3 that I mentioned on my list last night played out today. We saw both targets to the upside and downside get hit. Premarket we were about 15 cents off of the upside target before opening and pushing higher than yesterdays high. We then saw a sell off during the day to hit our downside target and also create a bearish engulfing, which was scenario 3 mentioned yesterday. I did not get to trade today due to being extremely busy with my personal life, but I was still very happy to see that my analysis was on point, making us 2/2 on the week for predictions. (FOR TOMORROW) Tomorrow I am looking for downside, plain and simple. With the bearish engulfing now created, overextension/exhaustion starting to kick in, and potential for us to create a failed 2U on the weekly chart all tells me that we have some decently bearish catalysts for tomorrow's session. I do not have a specific target for tomorrow to the downside, but if you look at the chart attached to this watchlist, you can see that we formed a broadening expansion on the daily. I am hoping to get close to, test, or surpass the bottom trend line. We must keep in mind that although these engulfing setups typically play out well (The last 7 on SPY's daily have resulted in correct movement in the engulfing candles direction or inside days following), it does not guarantee that we follow suit and see downside. We are still not confirmed reversing yet on longer time frames, but today could very well be the beginning, or sign that we are close to reversing. OVERALL: I want to see us head further down. My rough estimate/target to the downside is 406.43. IF we are lucky then we could see as low as 404. Watchlist + Bias MRK 2-1 Daily: Neutral CRM 2-1 Daily: Bearish MRNA 2-1 Daily: Neutral UNH 2-1 Daily: Slightly Bearish DOCU - 1-3 Daily and 2-1-1 Weekly: BEARISH SQ - 3-1 Weekly: Neutral Previous and Tomorrows Main Watch: DOCU + SHOP SHOP - Neutral on this one. It played out the way we wanted too, but did not hit the target we expected, and was choppy all day. Overall I count this as a win because it followed our criteria and played out as expected, but was hard to catch an entry on if anyone did/tried to, and did not move as much as I had hoped for. DOCU - We STILL have not broken out of the weekly inside setup. Today ended the same as SPY. Bearish Engulfing, with SPY looking like it could reverse any day now, I have to be bearish on DOCU as well. As far as winner/loser status goes for today, I respectfully think this one was an L. It opened under long entry and pushed up slightly above that entry during the first 10 mins of market open before being shot down along with SPY. I personally did not take this trade, but I can see why it may have been a losing trade. For tomorrow, I think a test of the weekly short entry is inevitable, and I will be watching closely to get in some 1-2 week out puts, as well as some close expiry contracts for a day trade. Weekly short trigger is at 56.01. Targets set at 55.24 and 54.86 Watchlist Stats: 2/2 SPY Predictions 2/3 Main Watch Plays Top Winner: SQ 23%+ Personal Stats: 0/1 on the week Overall Red - Did not trade today so stats remain the same. Lets make some money tomorrow! Good Luck all!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Alanger17
4/3 Watchlist + NotesInitial Notes: Didn't trade on Friday, new month begins, SPY confirmed breakout on weekly, and light economic news coming this week. SPY - (FRIDAY) Unfortunately, my SPY prediction for Friday was off. I underestimated the short term strength of the markets as evident by Friday's big green trend day. I'm not afraid to admit I was wrong on my analysis, because nobody can always perfectly predict the markets, and because ultimately, the markets surprise us once in a while. A good trader knows when they are right, but an even better trader knows when they are wrong. I choose to believe that I was missing info and/or not seeing the bigger picture for Friday's session. Going forward I would like to try to shoot for at least 80% accuracy with my SPY predictions, trades, and general analysis of setups that show up on the scanner. I will document all stats per usual at the bottom of my lists. (MONDAY) Going into Monday, we have a few things to consider. We broke out of the upper trendline on the weekly chart, which is extremely bullish in my opinion. We also had a really strong and big green day friday with little to no upside wick. This tells me that we are looking very bullish just based on the weekly chart breakout, and the strength of the most recent daily candle. My guess is that we will see a push higher than Friday's high, but I am unsure of how much higher SPY can/will go. We are still at risk of short term exhaustion, and therefore, I am skeptical to see if we will see strong continuation or just consolidation/pullback before making the next real move. The most reasonable expectation for tomorrow in my opinion, is a day where we can be green or red, but regardless see a push higher while staying within a 1% range's movement on the day. Id love to create an inside day tomorrow but I sort of doubt we will be that lucky. Weekly targets are set at 415 and 402 respectively. More analysis to come as the week goes on(Apologies for the super long analysis, just had a lot to say with Friday's fail) Watchlist + Bias: SQ - 2-1 Daily and 3-1 Weekly: Slightly Bearish BABA - 2-1 Daily : Bullish LULU - 2-1 Daily : Neutral MMM - 3-1 Weekly: Bullish DOCU - 3-1-1 Weekly: Bullish Main Watch: SQ - Great setup on this one. 3-1 Weekly is the main catalyst I am watching. Would love to play downside on this and get a good entry on a break to the downside tomorrow with the 2-1 setup we have on the daily. My main concern is the bullish strength of the markets currently because another day of bullish movement could invalidate our short entry. I am open to playing both sides, but I would definitely prefer downside as there is better R/R. Main Watch From Previous Watchlist: DOCU: (Status:) Loser (Personally Trade?) No DOCU had a solid setup, but even the best setups can be ruined when the overall markets are incredibly strong in the opposite way as your bias. This was the case for DOCU on friday. What is interesting is that we are now bullish on the daily with DOCU, but still remain in an inside setup on the weekly. Im keeping this on the watchlist for now as I think the weekly breakout could hold a bigger move because DOCU has a pretty large average daily range. FDX - this wasnt a main watch but was something I watched throughout the whole week, Study the weekly and daily chart because although I missed the move, it played out exactly as we had hoped for. Cons if swung from daily entry went from about 3.5 to 5.85. Last Week's Watchlist Stats: 3/5 SPY predictions 3/6 Main Watch Winners Top Winner: NVDA 75%+ Personal Stats: 5/7 on the week (71.4% win rate) Overall: Green week. Happy with the results, but I know we can do way better than that. Green week is a green week though. Lets do it again. Best of luck tomorrow everyone !
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
3/31 Watchlist + Notes SPY - Going into todays session, I mentioned that I had a bullish bias that I was only 75% confident in due to the downside gap that remains unfilled on the daily, and because we were sitting on a daily upper trendline. SPY gapped up for the second day in a row and closed green, confirming our overall analysis, but created a failed 2U, which leads me to believe that we could be overextended short term and may see some downside going into Friday's session. The weekly chart is strong and is showing that we are breaking out of this downtrend we have been in looking at the weekly chart. I have a feeling tomorrow could be a day of consolidation or pull back to try to fill in the small gap created in the daily from yesterday and today. Final Thoughts: I am Neutral/Bearish going into tomorrow. If we do see upside, I would imagine we peak at the 405 area on SPY. I can't Imagine we push too much higher until next week. Watchlist+ Bias: (No daily chart inside setups showed up on the scanner from today's session) FDX - 3-1-2U weekly : Bullish. Looking to test 226.06 tomorrow/Monday DOCU - 2-1 Weekly: Bearish CAT - 2-1 Weekly: Neutral Main Watch: DOCU - Interesting setup with this one. DOCU has a 2-1 weekly that is still not broken out of, even this late in the week. It also has a 2-3-3 daily, which is what I am most interested in for this play. The 2-3-3 setup has created a big broadening formation. Today was a huge red engulfing day, which is why we have bearish bias going into tomorrow. Additionally, DOCU is in a pretty neutral place currently after being in a 14 Month downtrend, which tells us that we are now consolidating and looking to either continue further down or reverse according to longer timeframes. My targets to the downside are 56.01 and 55.24. I will only play downside, not upside. Yesterday's Main Watches: JNJ - (Status:) Loser (Personally Trade?) No JNJ gapped up over yesterdays high during the premarket session, invalidating the setup because I usually do not play inside setups if we open above/below a long/short entry level. JNJ quickly fell back into yesterdays range and rejected yesterday's high a few times showing that it was weak to the upside. Overall just didn't play out how we wanted, but that's just part of trading GOOG - (Status:) Winner (Personally Trade?) No GOOG opened within yesterday's range, then broke yesterday's low, which was our entry short. GOOG immediately dropped down to our target at 100.28. It hit 100.29 before reversing. The main takeaway from this play is that it was nearly textbook perfect in terms of entry, and target. Cons ran just over 50% in a matter of 2 minutes. Unfortunately, this trade would have been very tough to realistically take due to how fast it moved and completed the move we wanted. Situations like this are sort of a win because we know our analysis was spot on, but the price action moving too fast was the only reason we couldn't capitalize on this trade. Watchlist Stats For The Week: 3/4 on SPY Predictions 3/5 on Main Watch Plays Top Winner: NVDA (75%+) Personal Stats: 5/7 For The Week Overall Green/Red?: Green Personal Note: Most likely will not have time to trade tomorrow, but regardless if I do or don't, on Sunday night I will provide analysis about tomorrow's session and what I am looking at going into Monday
AMEX:SPYShort
by Alanger17
1
$NVDA will go below $109 this quarterNASDAQ:NVDA * after two consecutive down weeks, there was a week of consolidation * Currently 2d-2d-1 on #TheStrat * I am still bearish on semiconductors; we are still in a bearish channel and I think the rally to 187 (December) was just a failed broadening formation. Institutions wanted to squeeze bears into selling their positions by running it up. * Now it’s time to run it below 109 (October low) I'm watching to see if the price will go ABOVE 150.10 this coming week (which would breach last week's high) and THEN have it retrace and fall shortly after that. The drawdown could take several weeks, we'll see. Maybe a 2d-1-2u-2d, which I think "Stratters" call a "Randy Jackson" ?
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by ChemistNate
4